To learn more about the Ever.Ag Insights Free Trial, click here.
In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss Soybeans, Crude Oil, the KC/Chicago Wheat Spread and, of course, Nov Feeders. | Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.
Charts sourced from Ever.Ag Platform.
—
The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-…
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod
—
Transcript (Auto-Generated):
00;00;00;00 – 00;00;17;13
CODY
Hello, everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. It is June 1st, 20, 23, Dairy month Baby.
00;00;17;15 – 00;00;18;23
ANDY
Dairy month.
00;00;18;23 – 00;00;20;06
CODY
Dairy month.
00;00;20;08 – 00;00;26;17
ANDY
I was in on the dairy month away. What’s how’s it going on? Sorry I interrupted you. You’re introducing yourself even though everybody knows who you are.
00;00;26;17 – 00;00;29;08
CODY
Is this when we have to introduce ourselves anymore? Everybody knows.
00;00;29;10 – 00;00;33;11
ANDY
Anybody. Everybody knows who you are. You know, I was the dairy at home, by the way. What’s going on there?
00;00;33;11 – 00;00;39;24
CODY
We’re doing good, man. We could use a little rain. It’s a little hot right now. We could use some precipitation. But hopefully just.
00;00;39;24 – 00;00;42;10
ANDY
Looking out the window right now, there is rain coming in, hot.
00;00;42;13 – 00;00;45;12
CODY
Snow and it’s just a cloud. It’s not rain and.
00;00;45;14 – 00;00;46;08
ANDY
Just like.
00;00;46;10 – 00;00;48;08
CODY
Just a cloud kind of trickling.
00;00;48;11 – 00;00;50;01
ANDY
One cloud. That’s it.
00;00;50;04 – 00;00;53;04
CODY
Everybody. I think everybody in the Midwest is looking for a little rain right now.
00;00;53;06 – 00;00;57;23
ANDY
Grass is pretty dry, slow brown grass. Last time you mowed your lawn.
00;00;57;26 – 00;01;01;10
CODY
It’s probably a week and a half because like you said, it’s brown, It doesn’t need it.
00;01;01;12 – 00;01;07;09
ANDY
So are you like are you moaning neighbors lawn to you? Remember in the winter you were like talking about shoveling people’s driveways and stuff like that?
00;01;07;12 – 00;01;10;29
CODY
No, I have not. I have not. They can they can figure it out themselves.
00;01;11;01 – 00;01;20;20
ANDY
Just have that summer. That’s it. And that’s how we’ll do it. Mowing lawns. That’s where I draw the line, right? They’re going to draw lines.
00;01;20;23 – 00;01;24;01
CODY
These are all killer requests. By the way, we got four charts out there.
00;01;24;03 – 00;01;29;26
ANDY
Right? You had to say that. I forgot about that. So this is soybeans. Which one? Who requested this one?
00;01;29;28 – 00;01;32;14
CODY
Jen, Jen, Jen’s Jen.
00;01;32;20 – 00;01;36;13
ANDY
Appreciate it. Jen, what do you think it means here? Cody? What’s going on? It’s like, well, your favorite things.
00;01;36;14 – 00;01;41;08
CODY
No means we get a little bit of a turnaround today or the turnaround action.
00;01;41;10 – 00;02;01;21
ANDY
It’s starting to kind of look that way, huh? I mean, so I guess the only thing that bothers me about a potential turnaround here is that so this candle right here, So you would normally call this bad boy a hammer right there. So I really blew it up there for a second. But that’s what I was looking for right there.
00;02;01;23 – 00;02;10;27
ANDY
So that one is characterized as a hammer. So I guess when you think about like this, just the way it like the pattern itself is called that.
00;02;11;00 – 00;02;19;16
CODY
I mean, it looks like a hammer. All right. All right.
00;02;19;19 – 00;02;37;23
ANDY
Yeah, actually, it does. So, I mean, it’s just characterized by because you settled well off the lows, right? But if it were to be like a bullish reversal at the end of a like a downtrend, you’d want it to be green. Right. So this basically says that the clothes are still lower than the. But ideally, you’d want the clothes to be higher than the open.
00;02;37;26 – 00;02;59;19
ANDY
So you think about it, just rock hard settled well off the lows and then closed higher in the day. Right? So that’s typically like a bullish reversal. That’s the only thing that bothers me about this. I mean, I hear what you’re saying, but it’s also I want that candle to be green. That said, you know what I think is also interesting here, too, is you look at the relative strength down the bottom, gapped below the blue that’s oversold territory.
00;02;59;21 – 00;03;15;09
ANDY
So once it gets in there, if you’re short, that’s kind of like a danger. Like, you know, it’s starting to get a little oversold here in crossing back past the blue again. So you’re going to have this little dip that’s a buying indicator. So it got into oversold territory and is now coming back in.
00;03;15;09 – 00;03;27;27
CODY
Now, what about the, you know, the very last cable that we have, the green candle engulfing all of what what would be Wednesday’s or I’m sorry Tues trade there is that any kind of a formation after that hammer I’ll say.
00;03;27;28 – 00;03;48;11
ANDY
Yeah no I hear that’s a tough one like I said because it’s I think that would be a lot more I guess telling of that if that hammer was green it’s not. So I think if you wanted to own it, you got to be first of all, if you’re short, you’re going to be really careful here because you had the like I said, the RSI poked in and oversold and came back.
00;03;48;13 – 00;04;08;12
ANDY
That’s a bullish indicator. So I think if momentum shifted back into positive territory, so the top one went from negative to cross zero, I think that would be another big indicator that you’d want to be at least out of shorts. And I think too, if you’re looking to find a spot, to find a reason to own it, sort of speak or find a spot where you want to strike it in long right there.
00;04;08;15 – 00;04;11;18
ANDY
12 bucks. That was a lot of resistance there.
00;04;11;20 – 00;04;12;17
CODY
Yep.
00;04;12;20 – 00;04;33;05
ANDY
Right. And so especially if we went back there in a hurry, it’s kind of had this like almost miniature v bottom. But like, if you crossed that $12 threshold, you’d leave a lot of selling behind also. B, you’d have gone have gone into oversold territory and back out again. Momentum would probably be above zero at that point. And, you know, you’d leave a lot of selling behind.
00;04;33;12 – 00;04;37;15
ANDY
So I’m not I want to own a just yet, I guess about short I’d want to be up.
00;04;37;17 – 00;04;42;08
CODY
Do you want to see you want to see if we get up through a lot of that chop that we had going on there past two weeks.
00;04;42;15 – 00;05;02;26
ANDY
Yeah. Yeah. I think you can buy with a lot more confidence. If we closed over 12 bucks now all of a sudden, again, that momentum will be over zero and we’ll be well, you know, you’ll basically leave most of May’s trade behind. And so then you start talking about, well, gee, in this thing, I think you can argue the trend started right there right now you’re talking about retracing 1242.
00;05;02;26 – 00;05;23;06
ANDY
By the way, if we got up in there, that would be up against a major downtrend. If you closed above that, you could start to get dicey. Right. So I like I said that some of these indicators are certainly pointing to it’s oversold and you probably want to be looking to get out or if you’re short, buy calls or something to that effect that I’d want to see up close over 12 bucks if I was short flip and want to get long.
00;05;23;09 – 00;05;26;24
ANDY
Anything you plant in beans, by the way, would you done?
00;05;26;26 – 00;05;31;27
CODY
No, No being planted for us right now. I know other people are, but what are you.
00;05;31;29 – 00;05;35;11
ANDY
Going to plant in your backyard? I mean, you got, like, baseball going on or something like that or.
00;05;35;18 – 00;05;53;21
CODY
In the back yard that does plant corn and soybeans, half and half over here in the field. I mean, not I see the same row split the split the field in the half side. You live out kind of in the country ish. So, yeah, they’re putting that in the ground, finishing up corn yesterday and now just hoping for a little bit of rain to get everything going.
00;05;53;26 – 00;05;54;29
ANDY
What’s country ish?
00;05;55;06 – 00;06;09;04
CODY
Wow. I mean, when you say I live near Grand Rapids, Allendale is not necessarily like the country, right? I still have neighbors. I slept people across the road, but in the back yard there is a field back there. So we’ll call that country ish.
00;06;09;07 – 00;06;26;25
ANDY
All right. Fair enough. Ish. So Cody’s country is not fully country. He’s playing baseball or there. Baseball futures. Maybe we can launch one. We try to turn Basil Watts here in the Christmas basil. All right. So we have another one that came in. Request this from Janet again, right?
00;06;26;25 – 00;06;28;08
CODY
Yup. A twofer.
00;06;28;10 – 00;06;38;01
ANDY
Twofer from Jan Crude oil. So this one looks a lot more friendly. Yes, I know. Beans. We talked about getting out shorts if you were short, but this one I feel like, is one we can take a shot at being a little less.
00;06;38;01 – 00;06;39;11
CODY
For down here. A lot of.
00;06;39;11 – 00;07;02;27
ANDY
Thought. So let’s just do this real fast. You had this noise that failed to get tested the last time it tried to test that same noise, it was promptly rejected just that same day, too. And then it looked like it was trying to break down again and was promptly rejected. That’s an outside day, right? So you have basically the open and the closed, completely engulfed.
00;07;02;29 – 00;07;04;21
ANDY
You know, it’s a gulf.
00;07;04;24 – 00;07;05;01
CODY
Yeah.
00;07;05;05 – 00;07;22;13
ANDY
So ipso facto, I think there’s a lot of support there. And what I think is really interesting here, too, is that so another way to look at some of these indicators. If you look at the R side and the bottom is they tend to sometimes have their own like chart patterns within themselves, which is like a chart within a chart within a chart.
00;07;22;17 – 00;07;45;07
ANDY
I guess my point is, is that it’s exhibiting a higher low. Right? And so if you look at right there, that’s that low. If it took a shot at getting back into oversold territory and it’s failing to test that again. Right. So it’s putting in a higher low on the indicator that, you know, you’re getting some bullish confirmation just from just from that pattern within the indicator itself.
00;07;45;09 – 00;07;57;15
ANDY
So between the support here, the failure to break here and then engulfing here, I mean, it looks like it’s got a shot of getting to 74, but I don’t know how much the cost of help drug.
00;07;57;17 – 00;08;19;05
CODY
For a lot less. The other thing I know this is on the technical side, but now you’re getting into how that big holiday season was behind us for Memorial Day. You’re getting in the summer. Kids are out of school, People are traveling, doing the summer vacations. I know that’s not a technical chart side of it, but usually a good time when a lot of these fuel prices, gas prices tend to take a little bit of a jump.
00;08;19;05 – 00;08;20;01
CODY
Right?
00;08;20;04 – 00;08;29;26
ANDY
A little bit of a jumper. Yeah, it’s you make a good point. I mean, you’re probably travel and places to go, get some ice cream and stuff like that. I mean, you’re not just sitting at home and it’s hot.
00;08;29;26 – 00;08;35;04
CODY
Out, right? Exactly. How do you get more than you want to travel for.
00;08;35;07 – 00;08;36;16
ANDY
Walks to go with ice cream?
00;08;36;18 – 00;08;39;07
CODY
We’re going to travel for it. Exactly.
00;08;39;10 – 00;08;58;27
ANDY
So, yeah, no, I think this candle here is this. These two right here. You completely engulfed yesterday’s trade. You’ve you have the conformation down here, right? I think it’s I think it’s got the ability to go test, you know, like 74 right. I mean 74 bucks as a price. The market also doesn’t seem to like very much.
00;08;58;29 – 00;09;00;09
CODY
Right.
00;09;00;11 – 00;09;23;03
ANDY
Right. It was one support became resistance. It’s a it becomes somewhat of a magnet in terms of price. So, I mean, that looks like it can get back to 74 bucks. What do you do then? You fill up guessing today, Not like three or four days. Know. Yeah. All right. This next one came at requests. Well, the king requests.
00;09;23;05 – 00;09;30;10
CODY
I did this one came from our good buddy Mark in Michigan. And this is a spread. I don’t know if you and I were actually looking for one.
00;09;30;16 – 00;09;38;28
ANDY
Look at this one before ever. There we have. I don’t remember. So sorry if we have no same. So run us through this one.
00;09;39;00 – 00;09;49;27
CODY
So this is going to be the Kansas City Chicago wheat spread, which got it. I mean, you kind of have markdown there, but like I said, we’ve never done a spread before. This one’s going to be an interesting little look.
00;09;49;27 – 00;10;14;20
ANDY
At do So in order to get this on the chart, I took I took the price of Kansas City wheat for July and subtracted Chicago wheat for July. So it gives you the difference between the two. But the thing is, when when crazy look at this is that whole dollar for dollar 20 here to here it like I guess if you just look I don’t really know anything about the fundamentals here I’m not going to pretend to to me this looks like this looks weak.
00;10;14;26 – 00;10;29;17
ANDY
It looks weak and it looks like at the very least, it wants to go and test kind of where it started to break, like where it started, the initially break down from. It’s also a point to where the market really started accelerate. It’s not that far away. It’s like another $0.20 a bushel. But at this, this looks weak.
00;10;29;17 – 00;10;43;04
ANDY
I mean, you had it a complete rejection here and then you engulfed it here. And then this is like the best that the bulls can do in response to a pretty substantial break frequently. Is this little guy right here? No. Good to.
00;10;43;06 – 00;10;51;14
CODY
See. I was actually going to go on the opposite side of that. I was going to say the past three. Yeah, I think so. I mean, it kind of looks like the beginning of an information going on here.
00;10;51;17 – 00;10;54;13
ANDY
Okay. So you’re thinking.
00;10;54;15 – 00;11;19;08
CODY
Okay, so you’re saying you look at the past three days of trading, you have a low of 187 the next day, 187 quarter today, 186. Right. It just seems like you can’t break through that 187 186 type number to get the follow through that we need. Now, tomorrow is Friday. Obviously, I could be taken aback by this one, but it just seems like we have another little rally in our pocket here.
00;11;19;11 – 00;11;26;23
ANDY
I agree. No, I don’t agree. Sorry. I kind of pulled my hey moment there, had a little bit of a struggle. That’s okay.
00;11;26;25 – 00;11;28;02
CODY
All right.
00;11;28;04 – 00;11;43;22
ANDY
I don’t agree. This looks weak right here. I think it’s just somewhat of a continue. I think these last three days, including this little guy right there, is the continuation and the next leg will be down. So we have a look. The so traits happen, though, you have this disagreeing disagreements.
00;11;43;25 – 00;11;44;07
CODY
Right.
00;11;44;09 – 00;11;49;23
ANDY
Right. So let’s say we do you’re thinking that we go back up to like two 5240.
00;11;49;26 – 00;11;51;04
CODY
- Yeah.
00;11;51;06 – 00;11;52;22
ANDY
To double the local.
00;11;52;24 – 00;11;53;10
CODY
Yep.
00;11;53;12 – 00;11;59;15
ANDY
All right. And you think that’s going to happen like turn around Tuesday, this Tuesday or something like that, Right. You think we’re just going to rock and roll, like, real soon?
00;11;59;17 – 00;12;16;15
CODY
Now, I don’t know if it’s quite take off like we had before when we really start to break up this this market out. But I think it’s going to look similar to that. I don’t think we’re going to piddle around here know one 195 for very much longer. Right. It’s either going to be a rally or we’re going to break pretty hard.
00;12;16;15 – 00;12;21;14
CODY
Like you were talking, it’s going to be one or the other. I just don’t see us sitting still for very long.
00;12;21;16 – 00;12;38;26
ANDY
Yeah, well, I that I agree with sitting still. This does not look like a chart that wants to just consolidate. Right. I think we’re seeing some consolidation right now, which I think will ultimately lead to another like down. I guess we’ll see this one this one could get this is going to get dicey if this is just a wicked chart.
00;12;38;26 – 00;12;42;02
ANDY
Do you know what happened here? Like fundamentals, you have to have any like nowhere.
00;12;42;07 – 00;12;44;20
CODY
On this one? I have no idea. I have no clue.
00;12;44;20 – 00;12;48;11
ANDY
Fundamentally, maybe this is something that will be discussed in like in the next grain video.
00;12;48;14 – 00;12;50;01
CODY
Yeah. Yeah.
00;12;50;03 – 00;13;20;12
ANDY
You know, like all those cats, right? I mean, like, this is this is a pretty wicked chart because you look at you go back and look. I mean, it wasn’t doing a lot right. It was bouncing around. But then also bounce takes off. So now, well, here’s another thought. Is this wave or 1002 wave three is always the biggest wave or retraces a significant amount of it.
00;13;20;12 – 00;13;32;17
ANDY
And then wave five is usually, you know, some sort of exhaustion move where you usually take wave one and add it up there. But in exhaustion move, that would take us into new highs on it and you’d see open interest decline.
00;13;32;19 – 00;13;33;25
CODY
Interesting.
00;13;33;27 – 00;13;39;03
ANDY
I don’t think this is what’s happening. That’s my opinion. I think I think we have I think we just come down altogether.
00;13;39;05 – 00;13;40;03
CODY
Yeah.
00;13;40;06 – 00;13;50;15
ANDY
That’s another little piece, another little old piece there that just kind of got thrown in the mix. Yeah, but, you know, I guess you’re kind of thinking along these lines, though, right?
00;13;50;15 – 00;13;53;13
CODY
I didn’t think it was going to exhaust past 255.
00;13;53;15 – 00;13;54;25
ANDY
You’re thinking more like right here.
00;13;54;27 – 00;14;01;12
CODY
Yes, exactly. And then from there, kind of peter off as we get into the summer months and so on and so forth.
00;14;01;14 – 00;14;09;18
ANDY
So Cody, M, I mean, there I guess we’re both bearish.
00;14;09;21 – 00;14;12;07
CODY
Yeah, I’m just bearish.
00;14;12;10 – 00;14;14;01
ANDY
According to you, you’re going to able to sell better.
00;14;14;03 – 00;14;14;28
CODY
That’s right.
00;14;15;01 – 00;14;19;04
ANDY
All right, fair enough. All right. So we got our what is let’s just label that one, too.
00;14;19;07 – 00;14;21;04
CODY
So 1st of June.
00;14;21;06 – 00;14;22;22
ANDY
That’s right. I forgot about that. Six one.
00;14;22;24 – 00;14;24;01
CODY
Their month.
00;14;24;03 – 00;14;46;13
ANDY
2023 dairy month which capitalized dairy on. All right, All right. You got it. Then you’re thinking I’m I’m thinking, is this going to roll over? No. M page is saying Elliott Wave. She was messaging me in our chat here. She said Elliott with she’s the by the way, she’s the real like wizard here. I mean, we’re just like different people.
00;14;46;15 – 00;14;48;20
CODY
So the real MVP.
00;14;48;22 – 00;14;54;15
ANDY
The real MVP is Page. She’s just filling in the charts in the background. So. All right, last one last.
00;14;54;15 – 00;14;59;11
CODY
But at least one that you called to just But t might I add props to you? I heard.
00;14;59;13 – 00;15;17;03
ANDY
Anything. Not not a thing. Property of the label. That’s it. I just move the label. John Billington In our office, we call him Bilbo, Hope he’s watching right here. Feeders taking off. This is ridiculous. This move is just like, so great. Let’s talk about what we like.
00;15;17;06 – 00;15;40;05
CODY
Then we replay what had happened. If you go back to the beginning of May, what Andy had said, where we had that big down day. Yep. Where you start to draw the downward formation right there. He said. If we get to about $2 to 30, we are going to continue to the fifth wave of the Elliott Wave theory, where you have it drawn up to 247 My friend, Where do we get to day.
00;15;40;07 – 00;16;08;12
ANDY
To today’s close to 4785 Now that was the height. Sorry for about 475 come on. So I think what we need to be watching here is what is open interest doing right today for today’s trade. Yesterday or yesterday. Yeah, yesterday’s trade. Where am I talking about. I keep thinking of those Monday, don’t you? The last couple of days I think we need to go back and take a look at what open interest it is.
00;16;08;12 – 00;16;24;26
ANDY
Theoretically, if we are in the exhaustion point of the of this trend, the open interest should be declining for years. Many buyers of those that are short are getting out by buying and those that are long are getting out into those that are buying to get up by selling to them.
00;16;24;29 – 00;16;31;04
CODY
And if if we are in the exhaustion phase of this right now, we should see this market starting to roll over here pretty soon right.
00;16;31;07 – 00;16;36;07
ANDY
So what you would see is like another you would see like another Elliott wave.
00;16;36;10 – 00;16;38;00
CODY
Down, down. Okay.
00;16;38;03 – 00;16;59;05
ANDY
Correct. And then it shouldn’t in theoretically encompass all of this move. Right? You’re not just keep I mean, if we did do that, you wouldn’t you wouldn’t like retrace 100% of the move. It would be a retracement stair step down. So, yeah, if I was long I’d want to see it played out. And now it’s again, especially if open interest is breaking.
00;16;59;07 – 00;17;06;13
ANDY
But this is this is a signal that like you’re getting like this, this, the big candle gap right here that’s, that’s impressive.
00;17;06;13 – 00;17;06;20
CODY
Yum.
00;17;06;20 – 00;17;19;29
ANDY
Today massive aggressive price action after a substantial rally. So yeah if I was long and want to get now you know if you’re long and you want to stay long, I’d buy puts I’d be doing something and I don’t think it’s sell calls here either.
00;17;20;02 – 00;17;20;19
CODY
No.
00;17;20;21 – 00;17;28;21
ANDY
I, you know, like if I was long futures, I don’t think I’d sell calls because again sell an option the most you’re going makes a premium you collect. But I mean if you start to roll over on this.
00;17;28;21 – 00;17;46;04
CODY
Sell, go to a monthly chart real quick. I mean, you’re talking about prices that we haven’t seen since going back to 2014, 2015, Right? Yeah. Which is kind of the same thing that we saw going back into there. Right. And then we probably made an information and broke extremely hard. So could the same kind of thing be happening right now?
00;17;46;06 – 00;18;05;17
ANDY
Could be. I mean, you know, here’s another one, too. I’m glad you brought the monthly because the RSI just crossed into overbought territory a while ago, though. So like, that’s not a sell indicator. It’s just kind of like a warning sign that things are getting over overbought and that if so, this would be a major to I think this would be a major tell.
00;18;05;21 – 00;18;28;28
ANDY
This thing crossed back into like it crossed back over. Yeah, that would be an indication to get short. So, yeah, the charts definitely looking like you want to be liquidating longs. I would not be adding to longs here right? Yeah, I certainly wouldn’t be adding that. Yeah. This is this is looking like you want to be considering liquidating any longs or an oil and or hedging off so.
00;18;29;01 – 00;18;30;20
CODY
Well perhaps you know.
00;18;30;27 – 00;18;34;04
ANDY
You got like beef.
00;18;34;06 – 00;18;42;27
CODY
Yeah. I mean a little bit a little bit this one I just want to give props to you though. This one played out to a tee, just like you said. Wham, bam.
00;18;43;00 – 00;18;53;20
ANDY
Well, we’ll see. I mean, like, is is John Doe, is he going to give like, we’re going to get a Cuda, but we’re trying to get him on the show, Right. You said today. But you know, our.
00;18;53;20 – 00;18;58;07
CODY
Good friend, our good colleague John Billington, we’re trying to get him on the show.
00;18;58;09 – 00;19;11;20
ANDY
We also got to get Jack, we got to get Gaskill back on the show. You could do from the previous episode in January or something of 2022, he said. We asked him, When are you coming back on the show? And he said, Yeah, I’ll see you in 2023. Hang on, let me check. Is a 2023.
00;19;11;23 – 00;19;13;12
CODY
Just off the middle of the year?
00;19;13;14 – 00;19;20;20
ANDY
Yeah, 2021, 2023. So we’ve got to get back on the show, but one step at a time.
00;19;20;25 – 00;19;41;08
CODY
All right. Well, that is going to do it for another episode of Tech Talk for Andy and myself. But before we go, we want to remind everyone that it is June 1st of June, which is dairy month. The Ever.Ag Insights team is offering a free trial to some of our world class publications. Check them out in the link in the description of this video.
00;19;41;08 – 00;19;50;28
CODY
For more details, go Which free publications are great reading materials? But until next time, everybody have a great week. Hope we get some rain. We’ll talk to you soon.
00;19;51;01 – 00;20;09;11
ANDY
We need some rain. I could use it.
