August 17, 2023
USDA will publish its Milk Production Report with July data on Monday, August 21st at 2:00PM CT. 

Our expectations:

We estimate US Milk Production in July will be down 0.2% year-over-year after being flat in June.

  • We believe tight on-farm margins, along with some summer heat weighed on output during July, resulting in the first year-over-year contraction in 12 months.
  • In addition to typical summer heat, California faces a steep year-over-year comparison (+2.4% in July 2022), likely resulting in an even sharper contraction than seen over the past few months.
  • It was especially hot in the Southwest. Output fell 4.7% in June and reports suggest milk supplies remained tight through July.

We have cow numbers at about 9.402 million head, down 6,000 head from the previous month.

  • Dairy cow slaughter was up 6.1% year-over-year for the month of July.

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