The Grain Feed – September 7, 2023

00:00:00:21 – 00:00:09:13
VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and it’s not suitable for all. Investor contact provided in the strike is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00:00:09:16 – 00:00:30:24
JIM
Hello. Welcome to another edition of the grain feed brought to you by ever act. This is your weekly news feed for all things grain and all things feed. Each week we bring you updates on the markets with unique perspectives from amazing team of analysts with the intention of helping dairy and livestock producers manage their risk. I’m your host, Jim MATTHEWS, reporting from the Chicago office.

00:00:30:27 – 00:00:50:25
JIM
Joining me today, as always, from Texas, director of feed procurement, Mr. Jake Kingsley. And returning to the grain feed from the great state of Michigan dairy broker and agent, and of course, famously known as the brain for McBain, Mr. Cody Koster team, how are we today.

00:00:51:02 – 00:00:53:26
GUEST
Doing All right, Jim? Doing great. Jim, how are you?

00:00:53:27 – 00:01:03:04
JIM
I’m doing fine, but I missed the memo on these pretty sweet cowboy hats, so it could be better.

00:01:03:07 – 00:01:05:14
GUEST
You know, for next time. Good, sir.

00:01:05:16 – 00:01:16:23
JIM
You might also be wondering, do I have a cowboy hat? The answer is no. Cody, how did you get one? Man, you’re in Michigan.

00:01:16:25 – 00:01:19:26
GUEST
I was driving through Wichita last week, picked up my.

00:01:19:28 – 00:01:20:15
JIM
Ph.D. that I.

00:01:20:15 – 00:01:25:15
GUEST
Just got picking me up one of these old cowboy hats from Jake’s hometown there. That’s the.

00:01:25:15 – 00:01:27:24
JIM
Same Kinko’s that Jake printed out all his.

00:01:27:24 – 00:01:35:02
GUEST
Degrees. Yes, sir. That deals on degrees and cowboy hats.

00:01:35:04 – 00:01:39:21
JIM
Jake. Here’s his. Got to be authentic, man. You are in Texas. Where did you get that hat?

00:01:39:24 – 00:01:47:00
GUEST
I think so. I think he got it up at Fincher’s there in the stockyards. Still wearing my summer hat, though. Cody’s already transitioned to winter there.

00:01:47:01 – 00:01:55:11
JIM
Oh, right. Of course. Yes. You’re still it’s still some weather adjustments. But, Jake, once it does turn a little cooler, you will be adjusting. Which boy had you have?

00:01:55:14 – 00:01:58:28
GUEST
Yep. Will be ready a few more days. Three more days.

00:01:59:01 – 00:02:19:26
JIM
Very, very important stuff. So viewers for those are able to see these hats. You’re welcome. Or I’m sorry, which one of the two. And for those that are listening only to the podcast, you’re really missing out. You’re missing out on these really cool cowboy hats these guys have on here. Gents, we’ve got a lot to run through today.

00:02:19:28 – 00:02:43:06
JIM
We’re on a shortened trading week. We only have four days to trade this week because of the Labor Day holiday. So let’s get to it. Page, if you would kindly timestamp the broadcast. It is Thursday morning. It’s about 1030 Chicago time here. And take a quick look at the markets because we have a again shortened week. We also have a big report next week for the grain and feed markets.

00:02:43:06 – 00:03:07:15
JIM
We have the USDA Supply and demand report better known as the Wise Report will be on Tuesday, Tuesday of next week, and all eyes are going to be on being and corn yields. So things have tried to reposition themselves. Market wise after the three day holiday and before this report next week. We currently have December corn futures trading around 485.

00:03:07:19 – 00:03:29:09
JIM
We have no beans, close to 1360 and December meal. Our favorite yet stubborn little by product is down to 395. So proteins had a nice little run all the way up to 420 a week or so ago, all the way back down to 395. Today’s we’re watching those markets very closely as we move into next week’s last report.

00:03:29:09 – 00:03:42:25
JIM
But importantly for our dairy producers out there, we have Cody Custer on the show. So, Cody, we’re going to turn to you first this morning. What is going on in the milk markets?

00:03:42:27 – 00:04:05:16
GUEST
Well, as always, Jim, I appreciate you having me on the show to spread a little insight on the dairy front. And as we’ve all seen the past couple of weeks, we’ve had quite the heat wave come across California into Texas, where Jake is at. And it’s made its way up into the Midwest. I mean, you get into September 1st and we had about 95 degrees here with about 80% humidity.

00:04:05:19 – 00:04:25:24
GUEST
And it was it was just miserable, honestly. And these cows are coming off, you know, different people that you talk to anywhere from 5 to 8, maybe £10 of cow. And as we all know, kind of going into the fall here, Mother Nature’s going to have her swings. We’re going to see 85. We’re going to see 60, 65 at night and everywhere in between.

00:04:25:24 – 00:04:55:07
GUEST
But that has really hindered a lot of the milk production that we generically kind of get into coming out of the summer. And it seems like we are not out of those summer months right now. Now, if we also look at the other big story, which is cow calling, I think it was last Thursday, Slaughter report came up and we were higher, 3.8% year over year, slaughtered another 59,800 animals.

00:04:55:09 – 00:05:23:07
GUEST
And if you look at the areas that were up, the biggest I mean, the southwest, they were up 27.9%. California, Nevada, Arizona area was up seven in the big one was Midwest. We were up 7.4%. Another thousand animals sent to slaughter there. And I think that’s really having a draw on the market right now. And it seems like, you know, class three and Class four are really starting to come back into equilibrium.

00:05:23:07 – 00:05:56:22
GUEST
I think about a week and a half, two weeks ago, Class four, you could have called it up look to about 20 above class three or as of recently, we really started moving these block and barrel prices a little bit higher, pushing that class three price up to meet Class four. And we look at October, we’re just bumping up this morning against 1920, which is kind of getting back into some of these highs that we haven’t seen since going back into January, February of this year before we saw all the volatility on our way back down to $16.

00:05:56:24 – 00:06:05:05
GUEST
So that’s having a decent bump up into producers milk check if we can hold on to some of these prices. Good deal.

00:06:05:05 – 00:06:24:24
JIM
Cody. We appreciate the insights there. You initially mentioned heat, right? That was kind of the lead there and that’s been a big talking point, not only on your side of the industry, the milk production side. It’s been a big story for everything that Jake and I help run through as well. On the feed Procurement and Risk management front.

00:06:24:27 – 00:06:44:01
JIM
From what you’re seeing, Cody, on the home front in Michigan as everything looking up there after running through this heat of recent weeks. But also, I mean, the Midwest had a pretty rough go this year just in terms of riding the roller coaster of, you know, nice weather, extremely hot and dry, then perfect rain back to super hot, dry.

00:06:44:07 – 00:06:46:16
JIM
How was everything looking on the home front up the Michigan?

00:06:46:18 – 00:07:08:10
GUEST
I know right now, you know, things like you said, they’re kind of getting back into the swing of things where we need them. And I believe I’ve talked to a few producers here. Michigan, Indiana, northern part of Illinois. And right now it’s all kind of based. Everybody’s focus is on corn silage harvest. Right. I talked to a lot of folks with this heat and humidity that we saw the last week and a half that you’re talking about, Jim.

00:07:08:10 – 00:07:28:23
GUEST
People are now talking about chasing this crop. Right? We had a little bit of rain sprinkled in there. You get to 95 degrees in this crop. Could really start taking off, getting away from people. So I know that folks are really looking at getting out there, getting some moisture samples. I’ve heard some folks in northern Indiana with started shopping and they are telling me that it’s fantastic.

00:07:28:25 – 00:07:48:28
GUEST
Right. They’ve got wrappers out there and it is going great. They really need to get after it. You know, some guys are telling me 23 to 25 ton to the acre right now, 60% dry matter and things are looking good. So they’re trying to stay on top of it as best they can. I know we’re predicted for a little bit of rain going into this weekend and getting back towards that 80.

00:07:48:28 – 00:08:02:03
GUEST
So people are really focusing on that right now. And that seems to be the gung ho way that the ship is driving itself right now, staying on that corn silage, making sure we’re putting it up in a timely fashion and getting the moisture and dry matters. Correct.

00:08:02:04 – 00:08:25:14
JIM
Excellent. Thank you for that. It’s very much a season of timing at this point, whether you’re you’re out there chopping silage or waiting to get the combines out there in the coming weeks. I know folks in similar areas. Some of it was farm to farm, county to county in terms of how detrimentally dry things were this June and what type of rain they were able to get ultimately in July.

00:08:25:20 – 00:08:43:29
JIM
I know there were concerns of what that silage tonnage would look like depending on some of the height of those stocks that they would have out there, depending on when it was planted. So we kind of like hearing that 25 number on tonnage, and I hope for the best for some of those guys in that area. And hopefully no one too far below 24.

00:08:43:29 – 00:08:57:22
JIM
Those that did experience some of that significant heat throughout this summer Jake. Probably a good time to transition to. You were talking a lot of feed talk here with Cody. What’s new on the physical feed markets this week?

00:08:57:27 – 00:09:24:08
GUEST
Well, really, we haven’t had a whole lot of change week over week, particularly in the cash market and even futures after a bit of a risk off week last week heading into the long holiday weekend, seem to have found a little bit of a sideways trade here for the last few days. We’ll see if that continues as we lead up to next week’s was the report or if we start to trend in one direction or another in anticipation of some new data hitting the market there.

00:09:24:10 – 00:09:43:26
GUEST
But I think the big chatter right now is still a little bit of crop tour data coming in and then folks going out and testing some silage to kind of get a feel for what their crops are going to look like. And and interestingly, I think you mentioned already it’s going to be spotty just depending on where you are mile to mile across the Midwest.

00:09:43:26 – 00:10:09:11
GUEST
And we’re hearing some numbers out of Kansas and Nebraska that look pretty good, especially from the perspective of last year’s crop issues and the low yields that they had due to drought in the in the plains and the Western Corn Belt. And then you get into parts of eastern Iowa and northern Illinois and parts of Wisconsin, and they are well off of their in that part of the world in some spots.

00:10:09:11 – 00:10:33:25
GUEST
And then there’s some other spots that they think they’re going to come in real close to average or maybe still better. So it’s going to be a interesting and likely choppy market here for the next couple of weeks until we can get some real data running through the machines out there in the field. I think thankfully we have had both corn and soybean meal futures kind of settle in closer to the low end of their ranges than the high end.

00:10:33:25 – 00:10:56:21
GUEST
So if you still have some exposure and need to get some risk management done, we’re in some better than not territory to do that. I think it’s going to be all eyes on this Wednesday report next week and how some of these harvest numbers start to run in for some of the folks that are out there early, I would not be surprised to see some of the poorer yield numbers roll in earlier.

00:10:56:21 – 00:11:13:24
GUEST
As you know, the poorer growing conditions tend to mature that crop sooner. And so maybe folks get in and harvest some of their worst fields first. Maybe we start to trend better as we get further into harvest year. We will have a cool front move through over the next couple of days. You’re you’re already catching it up there.

00:11:13:24 – 00:11:32:14
GUEST
Further north, even parts of the Plains and Texas will catch it the early part of next week. But at this point I think we’re kind of wrapping up our weather season anyway. So all eyes on harvest as we move from Texas and Oklahoma and Kansas further north to kind of see how that shakes out. Okay, Good deal, Jake.

00:11:32:14 – 00:12:00:06
JIM
Appreciate that. All eyes on harvest, That’s an excellent transition into this week’s bold predictions because we’ve got the wise dean coming up. So we’ve got to predict what the yields will be on Tuesdays wisely report. So, Jake, we’ll start with you. Bold predictions. What will the corn yield number be on these September wise? The report, not the final print in January.

00:12:00:12 – 00:12:04:27
JIM
Just what will it be on the September wisely report?

00:12:05:00 – 00:12:13:11
GUEST
I’m going to call it 172 and a half. I think that’s close to the low tide mark last year. And I wonder if they don’t come in and match it again this time.

00:12:13:11 – 00:12:27:06
JIM
Okay, very nice. And that was one 75.1 in August. So, Jake, you’re going to 172 and a half. Cody the brain from McBain corn yield on these September was the report.

00:12:27:12 – 00:12:40:22
GUEST
I’m going to go a little bit under Jake. I’m going to say 171 and a half. I think the U.S. is going to throw us a little curve ball for the baseball season. The beginning of football season, Jim. I mean, why not start out with a little fireworks?

00:12:40:22 – 00:13:10:15
JIM
Yeah, that’s exactly right. Yeah. Don’t forget, we’re in that last final stretch here for the for baseball season, but we’re about to start the NFL season tonight. It’s crazy. All our eyes on harvest, all eyes on Thursday Night Football. Jake, we’ll get back to you in a minute there. But first, we got to hit the soybean yield number on Tuesdays wisely, bold predictions again, borrowing from Phil and Kathleen on the dairy download Bold predictions take soybean yield number.

00:13:10:19 – 00:13:12:10
JIM
September was 80.

00:13:12:12 – 00:13:27:20
GUEST
I think they’re going to cut it down to 50 flat 50 flat. You’re an animal Think 50 gives you enough reassurance that they are looking at some real numbers and seeing this thing start to fall apart a little bit, but not enough to blow up the market.

00:13:27:20 – 00:13:35:06
JIM
Not enough to blow up the market. 50 flat. Not enough to blow up the market. Cody Bold prediction. Tuesday’s soybean yield number.

00:13:35:06 – 00:13:49:14
GUEST
I think I’m going to go right with Jake. There are 50 flat. I mean, I’m hearing that breaking open. Some of these pods are not looking too extravagant in there so far. So don’t expect too many fireworks on that side. The corn side is where everybody’s eyes are going to be peeled. Dubois Oh.

00:13:49:14 – 00:14:02:27
JIM
Interesting. Okay. Yeah. Extravagant bean yields, maybe not in the cards. Just yet. Guys, I might have to go some 50 on that bean yield number. You guys want to see fireworks? It’s going to be in beans.

00:14:03:00 – 00:14:04:09
GUEST
What do you got, Jim?

00:14:04:12 – 00:14:06:06
JIM
49.9.

00:14:06:09 – 00:14:09:29
GUEST
40 oh Oh.

00:14:10:01 – 00:14:13:02
JIM
Man. Crazy.

00:14:13:05 – 00:14:15:29
GUEST
All right, where do we send Bean meal futures from there?

00:14:16:00 – 00:14:17:12
JIM
We’ll be back at 420.

00:14:17:15 – 00:14:18:27
GUEST
I think so on Tuesday.

00:14:18:27 – 00:14:26:15
JIM
But once we digest this sucker, we’ll be trading beans back above 14 bucks. And what will ultimately be take a meal back up there.

00:14:26:17 – 00:14:28:18
GUEST
So your beans in the teens, counting.

00:14:28:21 – 00:14:38:09
JIM
Beans in the teens. Beans might be stuck in the teens. If we can’t shake this balance sheet up a little bit there, Cody. That’s true. We need we need some help. We need some help.

00:14:38:12 – 00:14:39:12
GUEST
Here you go in here.

00:14:39:17 – 00:14:47:23
JIM
At acreage number at the end of June, didn’t really do us any favors for those who were a little bit bearish beans at the time, But now are beans in the teens.

00:14:47:23 – 00:14:48:15
GUEST
With teens.

00:14:48:16 – 00:15:14:24
JIM
And Cody, we also you deserve a plug for tech talk because you are the co-host of Tech Talk and I was very fortunate to be asked to step in for you. Last week. We did talk about November beans and December corn on that report. So check back into last week’s tech talk. There’s also a great photo of Cody circa November 2019 of what he looks like without the cowboy hat.

00:15:14:27 – 00:15:24:03
GUEST
I appreciate you stepping in, Jim. I took a peek at that yesterday. You did a bang up job, my friend. Appreciate I thank you. Thank you.

00:15:24:06 – 00:15:52:07
JIM
I think Page did all of the did all the real work and he did a phenomenal job. So we’ve got just for the viewers out there, we’ve got Cody is is Michigan based but he is not a Detroit Lions fan. He’s a Green Bay Packer fan and nobody’s perfect. So all on that. But let’s let’s turn to Jake first, because the big game for Jake is tonight, starting off the season.

00:15:52:07 – 00:15:59:10
JIM
Jake, can we get a bold prediction on how badly the Chiefs will beat the Lions?

00:15:59:12 – 00:16:05:13
GUEST
I think they’re going to beat them by 17 points tonight without two of their top players. Yep.

00:16:05:15 – 00:16:09:05
JIM
Jake, that’s we’re just getting this in. That’s the boldest thing you’ve ever predicted.

00:16:09:05 – 00:16:13:24
GUEST
I think I don’t know if it’s that bold. It beats 50.

00:16:13:26 – 00:16:19:09
JIM
Point zero being healed. Cody Europe. How badly to the Chiefs beat the Lions tonight?

00:16:19:12 – 00:16:37:17
GUEST
You know, I was actually going to say I think they’re going to hang 20 of the lions are going into Arrowhead Stadium home field advantage defending Super Bowl champs. I think they’re going to hang of them. I really, really do. Those lions are coming out pretty bullish on their season and they have yet they have yet to prove anything.

00:16:37:19 – 00:16:42:17
JIM
You’re going to make some of your neighbors. You’re going to make some of your neighbors pretty upset as well, calling for a 20 point loss.

00:16:42:18 – 00:16:47:08
GUEST
It’s hard to be right all the time, Jim, but somebody’s got to do it.

00:16:47:11 – 00:16:58:20
JIM
And that’s why you watch Tick Tock. Someone’s got to be right all the time. And it’s Cody. Cody, since you are a Green Bay Packer fan, can we get a prediction for Sunday’s against I know.

00:16:58:20 – 00:17:24:24
GUEST
My Packers are coming to your Bears home field advantage smallest stadium in the country Bears have been very good I think the Packers are hanging 14 on them with our brand new quarterback that hasn’t. Oh yeah there’s a record one and a half points right now the Packers are going to come in there with a young wide receiver corps torch up and down Soldier Field.

00:17:24:27 – 00:17:27:26
JIM
Well, Cody, you know, I feel we’ve already got a bet on this game.

00:17:27:27 – 00:17:28:25
GUEST
We do.

00:17:28:27 – 00:17:48:14
JIM
You know, the Patriots are going to be pulling this one out by a field goal on Sunday. Field goal here to here first. Folks are embarrassed by a field goal. Hammer And a lot of both predictions here today, viewers, the boldest might be on the potential massacre at Arrowhead Stadium this evening between Jake and Cody calling that game.

00:17:48:17 – 00:18:16:26
JIM
But some big numbers to watch on the field front for corn and beans. Will we bring beans below 50? Jim says yes, Jake Cody say no. It’ll be a push at 50. So all eyes there. Stay tuned for that. Tuesday was the report everyone. We’ll see what it does to the markets. And of course, if you have questions on what’s happening in the grain and feed and or milk markets, reach out to this cowboy headed squad here on the grain feed.

00:18:16:28 – 00:18:35:24
JIM
We’re going to wrap things up for today. Excellent work to both you gents. A big thanks to Cody for returning to the show. It is great to have you and your insights and that cowboy hat you’ve got on here. We’d also like to thank Cory and the other insights crew for their support. Thank you to Page for production Magic.

00:18:35:24 – 00:18:47:03
JIM
Thank you to the viewers for watching the grain feed. Contact information is on the screen. We greatly appreciate your feed back. That’s all for today. We’ll see you next time on the grain feed.