In this special MASH-UP episode of The Grain Feed and Tech Talk, hosts Cody Koster and Jim Matthews are joined by Jake Kingsley and Andy Faulman to discuss dairy and grain markets.
Questions or comments? Topics you’d like to see discussed? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.
(Transcript auto-generated)
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Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
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Oh you beautiful people! Welcome back to another ever ag production. Today we have a very, very special show for you. A little mash up of the grain feed and tech talk. So joining me today from Chicago, one of the stars of the grain feed, Jim Matthews, also star of Tech Talk Andy Foreman. And then joining us from Dallas Fort Worth, Texas, the true star of the grain feed, Jake Kingsley.
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Gentlemen star. Thank you for joining me today on this monster mash ever egg production Mash.
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Thanks for having us Cody. We’re very excited to be here.
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Glad to be here I’m excited.
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This has never happened before. This is a once off. I’m sure it’s going to happen many more times once we win an Emmy for this show. Yes, but until then we have got four charts, two grain, two dairy. I think we should jump right in the first chart, if not more mistaken. New crop corn.
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We had several people reach out about new crop corn. That’s right. And this is Jimbo’s territory. Here we go. Let’s go.
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All right, so just so everyone knows at home, right? We’ve got Andy handling the charts. We’ve got us providing the feedback and analysis into the charts alongside Andy. So how about from a non fundamental perspective Andy.
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Let’s hit the tech pure technicals. First we’re going to go technical for tech first I actually had a good conversation with market AI Mike about this. And we did have Tom from Iowa also ask about this new crop corn I said that right right.
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You did I did do scoring.
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A new crop. New crop. We’re off to a good start. I think what sticks out to me the most is you have somewhat of a failed breakout over those long term trend, right? I mean, we just don’t know if I call it collapse. But we went from what, five 2440 was lowish somewhere in there. Let’s let’s take a look at this thing.
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446 I was close, but then you have somewhat of an m, right? And that is a sign of weakness. You try to break out. Couldn’t get through. What is this, 480. Try twice. Yeah. Once. Twice. And then now we broke through this area right here. This is where we really took off from, right? That’s where you like, I guess, cemented the breakout.
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Yeah. And then since then it’s just been kind of like, nope. And now we’re breaking back through that price. That’s a sign of weakness. Yeah. So I think what I told market yesterday is if we get a close through here, 450 becomes a pretty big magnet. Does that jive with the fundamentals?
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I think it does. And I think you’ve got that large rally up right up towards 480 there that we then quickly failed from. So I believe that’s the prospective plantings report day where the USDA came in. With that end of March prospective plantings, we came in at 90 million acres. Much of the market was at least projecting something around 91.
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A lot of folks had us around 92 million acres. And again, that’s the surveyed number in terms of what we are projected to plant for this year. So currently planners are rolling across the US. The assumption was 91 to 92 million acres. Government comes in at 90. That’s the pop you are seeing on that big bright green candlestick there.
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But like Andy noted, we ended up failing there. We’d been there maybe a week prior. Lots of resistance there. I think you could argue a lot of the actual real crop farmers are stepping in at that 480 level and saying, I think I can beat my cost of production here. I’m starting to commit to some sales, if not some hedges at this stage.
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We’ve had a lot of pressure since then. And Jake, I mean, this is something we’re watching very closely, especially to push through really the lows of that report day and the day prior. I think it’s a significant move. And this is part of the patience that we’ve been preaching to our dairies is let us get down below that threshold and try for a real a real move down towards that.
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450 to 455 type of threshold. I think that matches up just like this show with Andy’s analysis. Right, Jake?
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I think that’s right. And I think you said it that spike there kind of got a little bit of corn moving into the market. Our friends over there managing grain producer risk Britt from From the Furrow and her team kind of mentioned that that pop got a fair bit of at least their customer base is corn moving to the market.
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And we’re also hearing since then there’s been some corn moving into commercial elevators on delayed pricing contracts, which is interesting and should play right into the hand of the feed buyer. I think being patient is starting to pay off. We’ve been talking for a while now. No real material change. Well, I think we’re starting to see that change occur.
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Talking with some folks in different parts of the country yesterday, old crop values have started to come down. Corn basis is down 15 or $0.20 depending on which market you’re in. And this is primarily rail dependent markets Texas, Idaho, California, some of those guys, they’re finally seeing a decline of 15 or $0.20 a bushel on old crop basis, April through September.
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Corn, more interestingly, is that we are seeing this now trickle into new crop numbers. We’re seeing some new crop numbers. We’ve been talking about waiting on that. We’ve got a big balance sheet. We’ve got some acres going in the ground. South America is looking pretty good. Are we going to reset the whole market? And it feels like this corn that’s moving into the commercial pipeline’s pushed old crop lower and now new crop, we’re within arm’s reach of what I would call the historically average range.
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You look back to 2015 to 2019 when feed markets were pretty quiet. Not a lot of volatility there at all. We’re within 20 $0.30 a bushel of basis numbers that we were seeing in corn back in that five year stretch. And that’s first off for this coming October through next September, that’s starting to look pretty enticing. We may be getting to a point of, if not purchasing corn, certainly thinking about some targets not far from here for basis contracts for the next feed year.
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I’ll tell you what’s interesting. I it on the chart. You guys are talking about it for 80. Look at that. Yeah it bounced off there right there. That could get a little dicey if we’re able to get through for 80. Yeah that’s a big number right there.
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Yeah. And I think for like especially after that report day like for Jake and I. Right. We were coming into that. You had managed money holding a very significant net short position. I mean that report date came out on a Thursday, but that was the Thursday before Good Friday holiday. So you had a three day weekend in terms of markets being closed, you had managed money holding that substantial net short.
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I think they’re caught off guard. I think a lot of us were with that 90 million number, and then they covered those shorts fairly substantially to take risk off heading into that weekend. Now also have to kind of take a step back. Remember, that’s when rains really started to hit the Midwest pretty hard heading into Easter. We started getting them another week or two after.
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So the drought situation has changed a lot in the Midwest. We’ve seen a lot of fundamental pressure up here. Then with that technical resistance at 480.
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Here’s the big question, though, of the settle today in these corn for 60, even if you get an open tomorrow or tonight a little bit lower, I’ve got to imagine 450 is probably a pretty prominent number to go and test.
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Yeah, I would agree. I think this is the first time we’ve seen your eyes on the show today, by the way. Yeah, just had them covered.
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Look, they look nice.
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Give us an own style like you think. Give us one of these. Hey, go.
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Eight taught me that.
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I think I said yeah, the Jake Murphy like meal. Yeah. Jake, I want to move on to some protein.
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Let’s go. Protein.
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We got some December bean meal coming in hot.
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Let’s at the tech analysis first. What do we got here?
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Same kind of thing. Right. But it’s I think this is actually a little bit friendlier is the right word. It’s hard to be friendly something that’s had this big of a break. But for me I guess when I like first glance, what sticks out to me the most? Yeah, this low taking a shot at getting there and just not quite getting there.
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Yeah. Right. So you’ve you’ve had a pretty significant break. What is this like 420 ish color on there for 1017. So we got down to 340. Did puncture. Couldn’t stay there pop back got through this downtrend. Now we’re consolidating again. But this time we’re doing it technically on a higher low. Yeah one of Cody’s favorites because you go you get the buy button and you get the left click.
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You like the left click right like the left click I’m clicking is buying. So what about if you only have like there’s no there’s only there’s no. But Max.
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Or.
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There’s no button. There’s just there’s just one but not mine.
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So you don’t know what you’re.
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Going to do. It’s not my I know what you’re going to do.
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I know what you’re doing.
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Look at that. RSI has just been trading sideways for the past to me.
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I like what sticks out to me, too, is this. We’re finally starting to get some positive momentum. Yeah, I think at the very least, if you’re looking to own it, it’s telling you where you’re wrong. And it’s not that far away. Throw it as a 336 ish. Yeah. If you’re owning it around here, you’re only in 341. So you’ve got a pretty good risk reward in terms of owning it.
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I imagine it’s probably worth taking a step.
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And I think in terms of like the conversations we are having with our dairies, is that the downside potential, at least on our opinion from the feed squad, I think your downside potential for futures. And then, Jake, you’ll talk that basis in a moment. You have greater downside opportunities, I think, for corn at this point than you do for protein.
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I just want to make sure that we’re not coming across as if we are turning bullish protein by any means. However, there’s been a very significant difference between those two markets and between those two charts. Very much more of a sideways tendency, I think, Jake, we’re having folks step out a little bit further into protein, more so than folks have been stepping into corn.
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We’ve tried to remain very flexible, very patient, very close to home with their corn purchases, protein maybe stepping a little further out there. It’s not just the protein fundamentals themselves. It’s also the fact that soybeans from which we derive this protein just has a naturally tighter balance sheet fundamentally than the corn market does. I think we still have to get over a couple more hurdles here before we can feel at least a bit more comfortable with the idea of new crop meal, you know, pushing into the lower three hundreds and towards 300.
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Maybe we have to get past soybean planting. Perhaps maybe get those final reads on just how good the South American crop really did look and how much is making its way to port. But, Jake, in terms of the basis conversation, is it fairly similar?
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Yeah, I think there’s probably even less room to work in the basis window here, at least in the short term. We’ve come off of some of the highs of the last couple of years. We’re probably, for the most part in soybean meal were within 10 or $15 of probably where the bottom end of the basis ranges, if everything were to go perfectly well, canola has found a fair bit more strength, and I think that’s just purely the seasonal aspect of that product.
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Everything’s coming out of Canada most of that’s coming out of Canada, and in the summer months it starts to strengthen up a bit. And we’ve got pretty good Chinese demand out of the West Coast for that stuff. That’s kept it fairly firm in a basis. Perspective. Soybean meal is kind of now staring at this potential for some extended shutdown times for repairs and maintenance at a lot of crushed plants, probably in the next month or two.
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That could slow down, crush a little bit, and maybe get things to be a little bit supportive. So that’s why we’ve been okay with folks going out and owning, especially with futures down here where they’re at. You shave another 5 or $10 off of this. It feels easy to buy protein through June and then be working orders to maybe get another little step lower and get the stuff through September.
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But I think if you have stuff bought through June, you can afford to let planting run through here and a little bit of this downtime go through notebook crush, then soy crush here is still cruising right along. Very healthy. There’s a lot of meal hit in the pipeline, so those guys kind of get through their shutdowns and come back online.
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There may be another opportunity to catch a dip in price out the rest of the summer. Now, am I talking $300 futures and $20 off a basis? No. Probably another 5 or 10 off a basis and 5 or 10 off a futures. You see that? Probably cleaning up the rest summer and then yeah, look for opportunity in the new crop window.
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I think what’s interesting about this too is that a lot of times moves happen in phases of three. So we have this big break. We call it phase one. And then you usually have some period of consolidation that occurs. It’s tough to say how long that you know call it phase two last. But assuming this market keeps consolidating then I think you have to be really mindful of like a potential retracement.
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360 I just do this right. You guys are chatting, you know, 365 to 375. And if you get back up into this 375 area, you’re back. And all this noise where the market really took off. Right? So echo what you guys are saying in terms of you’re buying it here, you at least know where you’re wrong and it’s not that far away.
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It seems like the upside potential should we start to go. And I think you could consider and if you keep consolidating, I think that’s something you really mind just from technical standpoint.
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Yeah.
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I don’t know the green stuff the way you guys do. So I’m not an expert by any means and I certainly don’t know hats either. So I’m not going to pretend to be an expert on that either.
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Clearly I don’t know.
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That’s either I don’t know what gallon hat these guys have on. Yeah. I mean.
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My code is kind of maybe a couple pints there.
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I’m not sure. Three parts or something like that. I mean.
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Not sure what qualifies as a gallon.
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Jake said the wrong hat on. I need to have my straw hat on because it’s the wrong season.
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But it’s the wrong.
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Nose.
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It’s basically summer in Texas. There you.
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Go. All right. Maybe a little bit of dairy.
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On this time. It dairy country. Give me big cheese. There we go. Big cheese coming in hot. Yeah. This is this is an oldie but a goodie CMA cheese on a weekly basis. Cody, we really haven’t heard you talk. I mean, we’re barely been seen. We just now get to see your eyes, so. Right. Let’s hear what you have to say.
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I mean, I think spot cheese has a little bit of a run higher here. We haven’t quite broken through. We go from the high of what we saw back in April 2022. You just draw ourselves a little bit of a trend line. I don’t think we’ve quite broken.
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Out of that series. Oh yeah. Yeah. There. Right there. Yeah. There you go. I got you covered.
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We’re in a 161 average right now. We’ve been in a 161 average for the past three days. 181 would get us out of that give or take.
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Sure. Somewhere in there. Right. In fact, I could probably even be a little bit less, if I’m not mistaken.
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This is going to be the time that we’re going to test it, right? You’ve kind of got a little bit of a W formation forming right now is Thursday. Thursday afternoon is when we are filming this show. So we have one more day of trade in the week, but we can get up there to 170. We’re looking.
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Good. What’s that right there?
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Cody? I think we’ve been talking about that gap for a while. That one would be at 183, 184 about that gap.
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Our unfinished business. Man, I totally agree with everything you’re saying. You have a nice w you had this like secondary downtrend so to speak, that went from basically here to here 15 minutes. But what’s interesting is how the futures are trading, right? I mean if I go take a quick peek at the cheddar board here, may cheese 175 last we started pricing what they said today.
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You said it’s Thursday. We started pricing on Monday. It’s a five week month. Learn more about that from Joe A bases loaded. By the way I know. There you go. Someday Joe is going to give us a shout out. We’ll see. Anyways, this feels like it’s getting ready to break out. It’s interesting. We got ADP right around the corner too.
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It’s always a little bit of fireworks when that shows in town. But yeah, I totally agree. High or low just once. But really, I mean if you want to go back, I think you could argue twice, can’t you?
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You and I have talked about this personally, and I know we’ve talked about with clients, but recently also down here between 16 and $17 and make last three. The moves every day are more violent. Right. You got 75 higher 62 lower, 35 higher. It’s not just 5 to $0.10 anymore. These are some massive moves that we’re seeing intraday.
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That’s an aggressive word to describe it too violent very violent. Got a little uncomfortable.
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So you’re going to describe 75 higher to 62 lower the next.
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Amen. Yeah I’m going to disagree with the judge I know Jim is going a little uncomfortable over.
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Here I’m not wearing a hat.
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What do you think of this thing.
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You could argue there’s potentially a wedge forming as well. If we continue to make higher lows as we move into the end of this wedge, I think the violence that Cody is referring to, I don’t know, I think you could really break out of that thing pretty aggressively. And then that’s when you go back and test some of those highs potentially, and perhaps mind that gap.
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If you will. I think Jim’s gone for $2, Chase.
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I think so too. You heard it here, folks.
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Two bucks too much. Chuck. Right over here.
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Maybe.
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Let’s go.
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Disclaimer I’m the feed guy. So just a disclaimer, Jake. Anything on cheese besides delicious.
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What’s your favorite kind of cheesecake? Oh, man. My favorite kind of cheese. Like a good blue cheese. Oh, right. All right.
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Kind of boring, but.
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Well, okay. What are your favorite kinds of cheeses? I call that boring.
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I like what it is. Good, I love Gouda.
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A good.
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Dutch would say.
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How to.
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How to. Well, yeah, we did get corrected. We got corrected in person a couple years ago. I remember this, yeah. Lesson learned expression. Better Netherland made it last week. It’s a breakout. We’re going. It’s a.
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Breakout.
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And last but not certainly not least, this also came, I believe I request this has been one that’s been interesting too since July 2nd. Sep class three the belle.
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Of the ball, if you will.
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Belle of the ball. I could see Cody being a ballroom dancer, just crushing it.
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That and.
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That thing could.
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Do anything.
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I mean, Cody, what is this guy right here?
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Looks like a pretty good formation right there for the winners.
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Was winning higher? I think this is good. I mean, like, you had this long term trend broke out on a nice you’re solidifying the breakout.
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You got to ask yourself do you want to chase that gap at 1880 up there?
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I think you should. And this could get a little dicey too, because this gap is basically right. Look at where this thing is back. Oh, those big contract high. Imagine a close that fills this gap and closes into new contract guys too. It could be one a world launch button activated on this thing. So I think this is shaping up nicely.
00:16:45:15 – 00:16:51:23
I mean he had this big move to Cody’s point violence. It could be a face ripper. There’s another one. This aggressive face ripper. Yeah.
00:16:51:23 – 00:16:55:08
Just give it a chance. Right. Violence. It’s Ripper dude. Give it a chance.
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We’re going to give it a chance.
00:16:56:09 – 00:17:16:23
Me keep the kids in a different room for this episode. Used to be a family program until we matched up with Tech Tok. Yeah, for sure. I would also wonder from the tech perspective, if we’re talking about class three, is there a way to overlay corn on to here? Because historically there’s usually a correlation to an extent between corn pricing and milk pricing.
00:17:16:23 – 00:17:27:05
The last couple of weeks, I’ve had a lot of dairymen say I make more money at $7 corn than I do at $4 corn, no matter where you are in the country. Yeah, that is kind of a blatant thing that people look for.
00:17:27:06 – 00:17:47:09
Yeah. And I think it’s inherently for us, we want to get excited about the prospect of new crop corn breaking its way to 450. And if we can have a even average summer in terms of development weather, I think Jake and I would love to see $4 on new crop at some point, whether pre or post-harvest. There you go.
00:17:47:11 – 00:17:56:12
However, is that necessarily mean milk pricing can sustain the rally we’re potentially referring to here? I always like to keep this in mind here.
00:17:56:17 – 00:17:58:05
Okay. So asking you shall receive.
00:17:58:06 – 00:17:58:18
Yes.
00:17:58:22 – 00:18:08:04
I don’t know what Easter style colors or light blue. Dark blue. These blues that’s new crop corn overlaid with Q3 class three. Yeah. What’s that telling.
00:18:08:06 – 00:18:10:05
It’s going to chase it. I mean ultimately.
00:18:10:07 – 00:18:11:01
You see.
00:18:11:01 – 00:18:14:07
Class three being weighed down by the break in.
00:18:14:07 – 00:18:20:25
Corn futures to an extent there. Oh okay. So you’re saying you’d rather see in my opinion you’d rather see the be tightly correlate?
00:18:20:25 – 00:18:42:09
I’m not sure if I’d rather see it necessarily because again, we would love to see milk run up while corn continues to break down. I just wonder from a more historical perspective, if those two stay more in line with each other and corn continues to break down like Cody. What you were saying? There’s a lot of folks, I think, especially in the Midwest, that would say, do I want to feed expensive corn inherently?
00:18:42:09 – 00:18:52:06
No, I don’t feel good about that. But there is a tendency to see higher milk pricing when you do see corn up like that. So just something to keep in mind that we want to keep some of these price relationships.
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This is a product of the mash up.
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I think it is what.
00:18:55:01 – 00:19:00:21
A great product I think it is. It’s little overlay chart. Took me a minute to figure it out by the way. Yeah, well.
00:19:00:24 – 00:19:01:25
Yeah I think you did a good.
00:19:01:25 – 00:19:05:03
Job. Probably get some new colors or something. Like what kind of colors? If you want to say.
00:19:05:04 – 00:19:07:27
Oh boy, I don’t know. Well, once for.
00:19:07:29 – 00:19:08:09
Blue.
00:19:08:09 – 00:19:13:26
For blue cheese. I guess we made Jake happy. What else do you want, Jake? You’re already kind of clashing. You’ve got a white hat.
00:19:13:26 – 00:19:15:08
Black suit? Is that a suit?
00:19:15:08 – 00:19:16:09
Yeah. I don’t know, like.
00:19:16:10 – 00:19:19:24
Cheese or a T-shirt, maybe. Yeah, well.
00:19:19:26 – 00:19:23:04
We’re talking about suits in our chat, but nobody wanted to respond to it, so.
00:19:23:04 – 00:19:40:19
Yeah, we planned for this. I did not get a, wardrobe personnel on my end, so I did the best I could on my own. Right. You did great. You great. I did apply the things we discussed as did Cody. Folks in Chicago. Not as good a team. Players got their own thing up here. Just marchin to the beat of our own drum.
00:19:40:19 – 00:19:41:14
Blue cheese.
00:19:41:16 – 00:19:42:26
Uniform. Polo first.
00:19:42:26 – 00:19:48:09
And cheese. You won. We got it. How’d it go? Your Dutch is phenomenal, by the way. Knoxville. It’s phenomenal.
00:19:48:09 – 00:20:05:04
All right, everybody, we appreciate you tuning into this 30 minute long mash up that we’ve had that you so graciously are following us all the way to the end of the clip here. I want to thank Jake for tuning in from Dallas Fort Worth. Jim and Andy, we appreciate you guys being here from Chicago, as always from the Mitten State.
00:20:05:06 – 00:20:12:03
Happy to be here with you. And I do believe, gentlemen, we’re gonna have more of these mash ups in the future. I think this went exquisitely well. Yes.
00:20:12:03 – 00:20:15:21
Your adjectives today are really on par. Yeah, it’s reading.
00:20:15:21 – 00:20:18:18
A lot more books I’ve been working on my. I can tell. I can see.
00:20:18:18 – 00:20:20:09
That. Really? You’ve been up in the reading.
00:20:20:09 – 00:20:22:01
You look like you even read more books. You look good.
00:20:22:02 – 00:20:22:11
Yeah.
00:20:22:13 – 00:20:24:07
First I to read my speaking has been good.
00:20:24:09 – 00:20:28:24
You do? You should read about, like, silverware and plates and stuff like that. Maybe you’ll actually get a plate.
00:20:28:27 – 00:20:32:11
All right, everybody. And with that, we’ve been to you a fun show.
00:20:32:11 – 00:20:35:02
Well, right there too, it’s the same. See you in. You’ve been a cat.
00:20:35:03 – 00:20:37:09
Good evening. Thank page.
00:20:37:15 – 00:20:43:16
Thank you page for being here with us through this whole show. That’s been so glorious.
00:20:43:16 – 00:20:44:13
Putting up with us.
00:20:44:15 – 00:20:59:17
Putting up with us, helping us out, getting the computers to mash up just like us. A big shout outs. Corey and Lexi also on this to make sure that we kept it together. No one cried, no one got hurt and I think we’re doing pretty well. Shout out!
00:20:59:19 – 00:21:03:09
For.
00:21:03:11 – 00:21:04:22
Have you, have you concluded?
00:21:04:22 – 00:21:05:21
Is it over that over.
—
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