In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss butter, orange juice and cocoa.
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Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
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Oh well everybody, welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is Andy and for reference it is Thursday, February 27th, just about 1030 central time.
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I actually have 1030 and 45 seconds. How about that?
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Right on the dot. But hey, we’re getting better.
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Take that. We know how to tell time around here.
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I converted from Eastern to Central quite a bit, so I got to do the math. I’m going to.
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Do like the carry the one minus one.
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Exactly. So it’s all about everywhere.
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And wait a minute, don’t we have daylight Savings time coming up to isn’t this weekend though I like spring forward here.
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So is it this weekend or is it? I think it’s in March. Right.
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Well, this weekend is March, if I’m not mistaken. Oh you’re right. When do we spring forward 2025?
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Change the clocks.
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Sunday, March 9th. Goal of the week. Stay of execution, if you will I.
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Love it, I.
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Love it when we spring for it because you get, like, another hour of daylight. Yeah. And it’s like sunny out longer and birds are chirping and then like the.
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Winter is almost.
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Gone, winter is almost gone. Should we get to some charts?
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Let’s jump right in. We had spring.
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Forward into some charts about that.
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I think we had two, two requests, got some requests.
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We do have some more requests about that. Jack.
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Hey, we’re making traction. Let’s go.
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All right, so let’s start with the first one. Weekly butter. This is an oldie but goodie courtesy of Iowa Dan. So we really haven’t touched anything in terms of like, I know there’s all kinds of lines and circles and lines of lines. We know we get all kinds of stuff going on in this chart here, but this is what sticks out to me.
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This green one. Yeah.
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Key 26.
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226. We’re now within all this all this noise of consolidation, ton of volume history I think was what, 26 truckloads traded yesterday on the spot market. And you know it’s well discount in the futures market. And you certainly see people like stocking up for things like Easter and potentially even the fall. Right. I mean considering that this price is oh gosh, I haven’t seen this price since you got to go back here.
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Yeah. Beginning of 2023.
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Yeah. But I guess from a buyers perspective we see that and that makes sense. But we’re also seeing, you know, things like cream multiples you know like I think below a dollar only. Good night. So this chart technically not looking so hot. Yeah. And it’s just like a classic like downtrend right. You had this kind of like, you know a little upsy daisy here trying to, you know, a little bit of a retracement blew through that.
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So my guess is, is that we could get down to this 226 to 27 area and start to run into like, you know, do another one of these guys right here. Let’s just zoom in.
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It feels like with how much butter we saw traded hands yesterday, if we do fall down to 226 I think you’ll see quite a bit of buying there, just like we did, you know, back in that 2023 era.
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I agree, I think it’s going to turn into a bit of a struggle to get through all this consolidation from back here. And again, that low is about 226 and keep in mind too, like oh gosh. Like yeah, it’s a price point that the market hasn’t seen for some time.
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Then it becomes a question of do we stay down there for this? Six we almost only for six months trading in that range six months.
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It certainly is possible again with what we keep hearing about cream availability. Right. At the very least, it makes it tough to see a significant uptick, which makes me think, you know, again, is this more of a steady downtrend, which I believe it will be. And so you see another one of these types of deals where we kind of perked back up on our way back down to another new.
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Well, yeah. Right. And so I guess the first question is, is this like, let’s say we’re in a five wave deal. If this is wave one, if wave two ends, call it right at that 226, you would likely see another one of these guys like the first one. Yeah. So let’s just lay that bad boy right on top of that.
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I mean, that extends you down to right here, which is that’s about 2 or 5, give or take. Yeah. 205 and coincidentally two. That’s right. Where this market really started to take off. Right. You had this, you touched it here. It took a full, what, two years to get back to it. But then once it blew through that price, it just it just never look back.
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Yeah.
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So maybe that’s it. I mean, maybe we see this big inventory build and for the remainder of the year, more cream. And it just overwhelms the market. And we see another kind of like wave for go like this.
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And then put that fifth wave on it.
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Yeah. And then you start it where it really stopped. So let’s say it does stop at 226. You’d restart it right here. So I just I just took this distance right here, laid it right on top of there. Let’s just look at this right here. So let’s say we do get this retracement back up and then you start back down.
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But you really wouldn’t want to use the measurement from here to where it breaks where really where popped back up from. So in this case I’m using this point right here, which takes us right down to 2 or 5, which is where this market broke out from.
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Very possible. And then after that, I mean, you did say there’s a there is a gap over there in 2021, at the end of 2021 at 225. So why not, right? When I try to fill that, why not?
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I mean, I think we have to get a little bit uglier first.
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I think you’re right. You have to get uglier before it’s going to get better.
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Yeah. I feel like there’s a joke there somewhere. I just don’t know where it is, and I know let’s think about it after the show.
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Right.
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Both agree.
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Back on next year or next.
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Episode. Next year. Next episode, next time just goes on.
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That’s right.
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So. Oh, next one next. This one came at request. This is a new one that we don’t never really look at.
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Orange juice or orange juice.
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Taco. It’s it’s like share. You know, like it’s just like a one name. That’s a taco. So Taco wants to look at orange juice.
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Whoa. What do you say about May orange juice? Here?
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I mean.
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Look at the RSI on this thing. Move.
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What a great example of why you would always if you’re going to use RSI, which I think it’s a great indicator, it’s intended uses once you cross in this case oversold, you don’t really act until it comes back in. Yeah. Right. Because a market can remain oversold according to that metric for some time in this case this really great example.
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Right. So here if you’re short you’d be kind of on these standing on edge. But you know doing anything until it crosses back over this blue line.
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So if you see something here let me know. But I just switch it to a monthly really quick and good night.
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I mean, there’s just that much there really isn’t much to say about it. No, other than it’s just what you just said.
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Look at the retracement that we’ve seen so far.
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That line from that tombstone. Well. But yeah, I mean that’s there’s not much else to say. I mean, I guess if you want to look at some of these other secondary stuff like, you know, again, RSI did get into oversold so that is a warning. The money flow is starting to actually show some signs of life. So the secondary stuff is kind of telling you that this downtrend if you want to call it a downtrend I mean it’s not trending.
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It’s just going straight down is coming to a prospected end or at least slow down in its rate of change doesn’t necessarily mean it’s done going down. It’s just like the rate of change is coming to an end in terms of like how quickly it’s breaking.
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So do you take a stab at trying to own orange? I mean, at this point it looks like it’s trying to catch a falling knife, as you said, about a few different charts before. I mean, that is exactly.
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I was going to say like, you want to get your hands bloody. Yeah. Go ahead, try to catch the falling knife. What you just showed on the monthly chart. I just don’t understand how you could look at that and say, I want to buy that. Unless you really knew something like, you’re like the orange juice king of the world and, you know, or clean or whatever, and you know that, like, oranges are going to not going to be around much longer or something like that.
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And this is a screaming. But I don’t understand, like technically why you want to own that. That just looks horrible. I look at this.
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Yeah. Is it the momentum of the RSI or the same thing? The craziest thing is it’s not in the oversold territory on the monthly.
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On the monthly. Yeah.
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That is what is crazy.
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Like you could see like some consolidation and then another like down. Yeah. That to me seems plausible especially with what you just showed here. All right. And to your point it’s not oversold yet on a monthly basis.
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Yeah. And I mean, I don’t know very much about orange juice, but I’m going to assume that there is no frozen oranges on the trees in Florida based on this chart. Right?
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I would doubt it. You know, they have like iguanas in Florida that freeze, I guess. Yeah. Yeah, they freeze and like, they’ll fall out of the trees. I think they’re iguanas. Yeah. Reptiles or something.
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You ever seen the movie, Trading Spaces with Eddie Murphy? When they’re trading orange juice, they talk about the USDA’s frozen orange juice.
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What? Believe the movie’s trading places?
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But places are trading places. It’s like a 19.
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80.
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Eight movie. Good movie, great movie.
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It’s a great movie. Yes, I’ve seen great movie.
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They talk about trading oranges and orange juice. And their biggest, The Big Sell off came when they announced there was no freeze to the Florida oranges. And that’s. That is exactly what I think about when I see this chart right here.
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Sure, I mean it sure. I mean, that makes sense. Do you drink orange juice?
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Well, I do drink orange juice. I was just thinking you might I mean, at these prices, can you get a two for one OJ trip to the local Costco?
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Go to the store, go see what like goes. Are they are they doing the promos for orange juice?
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If they don’t just print this chart off and be like, you probably should, because.
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Just just hand it to the guy to check out. Like see, there you go. Like put the stuff on sale. Like, look at this, right? Yeah. Come on. I don’t want to pay full price for orange juice around here. Let’s negotiate. So, part of the deal stuff? Yeah. I don’t know this this, but it’s a great chart.
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I mean, it’s but long story short, it’s like, I don’t know why it’s a tough to want to do anything, but I guess sell it or do nothing like buying it to me is.
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Yeah. You’re you’re riding the dangerous line of you’re saying, hey, at this point I’m at 300, I’m going to buy it on a daily. I mean, maybe you do, I.
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Don’t maybe you do. Give it a shot. Spy one two lemons. All right, so I was talking to Taco two about cocoa. Okay, so we’re in the soft here. We’re in the sauce business, and flutter’s like, you know, it’s like a sauce day. Even though this isn’t considered a sauce, you know, or a soft on, like, what is it?
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Ice and white, like the New York Exchange.
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Really?
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Cocoa? Coffee. And I think orange juice is on there. I’m not sure.
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But so anything with.
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Butter is and see me product. But it’s still I’d say it’s still soft. I mean if it’s room temperature, I mean like every hour, that’s for sure. No. So anyways cocoa multiple lower highs one really one and two. And to me this this chart looks weak. I think this is one of the larger down days right here that this contract does seem I think historically like I think it’s reduced fourth or fifth biggest like down day.
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I mean clearly the market doesn’t like being above this price level. And again, to see the multiple lower highs is a sign of weakness. Long story short, this is like this looks like a rallies to be sold. Right. Like that’s kind of like the mentality like I want to sell rallies here.
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I just to say can you call that a double bottom right where your cursor is at right here? Yeah.
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I don’t know. I mean, it certainly could be at the bottom if it, if it really starts to go, but. Right. I don’t think I’d want to be getting long until you broke this. Right. Because again, you have consistent or lower highs and you have massive breaks into that. I think about it just like it’s the mentality of like, I’m not waiting to sell more.
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I’m not waiting to test as high to sell more. I’m going to sell it and really aggressively sell it. So that’s that to me is a sign of weakness.
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What is the monthly?
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This is a daily. This is a monthly okay.
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Look at the volatility though.
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Yikes.
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I mean same same kind of notion though right.
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That’s what sticks out to me. Yeah. Is you tried to break out here right. Like what a great looking chart that is. New high close for the month. Cleared all the stuff and then but oof jeopardy! And then the. Ouch. So it’s a clear rejection. It’s tough to want to get long until you at least get back into this noise.
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So then you go back to the daily again. You’ve got a pretty well established downtrend at this point. I would likely I’d be more of the opinion of if it goes in test this point with to be a seller to break through. That’s where you know you’re wrong.
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No, I agree, like you said, I wouldn’t sell right? Yet you get back up towards that trend line, I’d take a stab at selling it again, selling cocoa.
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You’re going to step out and buy some OJ. You’re going to go to the store and do some haggling to get you.
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Bring that chart and you speak. You ask to speak to the manager. I’m guaranteeing you’re going to get a cut on orange juice, like, hey, listen, I pay paying $7.
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You should do like tech talk like on location. Cody negotiates for a two for one deal or something like that at the local jewel-osco or something.
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Like.
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This haggling like, look at this chart, look at this thing and see how big this red can look at the monthly. You pulled a monthly look at the monthly. It looks even worse. Look at the monthly. I’m not paying. You should pay me to take the orange juice out of your of your hands, for crying out loud. I’m out of here.
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Just. Just like, just walk out. I’m done.
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Tech talk on integration. All right, well, with that note, we definitely appreciate the people that, had called in. As for the charts, this is the second week in a row and all the charts came at request. Very happy about that. We’re gaining momentum. If you have not already and you’re watching this video, if you have not subscribed, please do subscribe to the channel.
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Like the content? Give us a thumbs up. People on the back end are tracking and see how well we are doing. We want to make sure we keep those numbers pumped up and elevated.
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So Cody’s got to get to the top 10,000 subscribers. So you got to get to we.
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You’re shooting for the stars is your 10,000 subscribers.
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And you’re getting TikTok for life not written somewhere.
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I will it’s still today.
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It’s still like TBD is so like where now?
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So we’ll figure that out when the time comes. With that being said, please like subscribe gives thumbs up. Tell all your friends. Tell your family members. Check out TikTok. Yeah. Do you want to see anything for next week? Please let us know. Just an email and we’d be happy to look at it on the next episode. Tick tock.
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But until then, have a great Friday here and great weekend. We’ll see you next week. See ya.
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