Join Kathleen and Vuko from Ever.Ag Insights as they dive into the latest global dairy market trends in just 10 minutes. From multi-year low U.S. butter prices to shifting EU and New Zealand exports, they break down the charts, trade data, and key market movements with clarity and a touch of fun.
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Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
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Welcome to chart. Cheddar spent ten minutes with to ever add colleagues into wildly different time zones to nerd out on global dairy market charts. I’m Kathleen, market intelligence director at ever EG insights in the US and.
00;00;20;13 – 00;00;24;20
I’m a senior analyst with Global Insights based in Melbourne, Australia.
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And together we’re the hosts of Chart Chatter. We shifted it up a little bit today. It is 10 p.m. in Buffalo, New York on September 17th and I believe noon in Melbourne on September 18th. How are things going today?
00;00;40;16 – 00;00;50;12
Things are going great. We’ve had a big week with GDP and a lot of international trade data being published. Yeah. Looking forward to today’s call and sharing some beautiful charts with our listeners.
00;00;50;14 – 00;01;09;17
Let’s get into our agenda for today. First thing we were talking about GDP. Then we’re gonna get into some of that exciting tree data that I mentioned. I’m going to talk about you butter imports. And finally, our chart of the week. We’ll talk about semi butter first. Let’s kick it off with GDP. Luca what happened.
00;01;09;19 – 00;01;33;23
Duty was yesterday event 388. I was honestly a bit surprised by the results given the whole bearish market sentiment. Going into the auction, we had some seasonally high volumes on offer. Going into the New Zealand peak. The results were simply better than expected, particularly for for butter. Overall, we had a marginal decline in all product sexually fell compared to the prior event except for each other.
00;01;33;23 – 00;01;48;28
There’s a lot of discussion in our network whether or not this event can be considered bullish. From everything we’ve seen over the past month or so. I mean, the butter markets were falling both in Europe and New Zealand, and it appears like we’ve found a bottom so far.
00;01;48;28 – 00;02;16;14
Yeah. We’ll go. You and I were talking about this event yesterday as we were digging through some of the details. And it certainly was unique, given the fact that we’ve seen such dramatic downtick in US and European values across both the cheese powders and butter fat space. So to see the GDP yesterday down, but only down slightly and down less than anticipated definitely did bring about that.
00;02;16;14 – 00;02;41;01
Those questions of is this event a little bit more favorable. Could it be considered bullish or are we in a position where we’re still still on the bearish side? It was weaker overall, maybe teasing a little bit of the next commentary, but Chinese buying wasn’t quite as strong. But certainly a lot more questions. And I think answers from this this event.
00;02;41;01 – 00;02;42;06
388 yeah.
00;02;42;06 – 00;03;04;12
What caught my eye was that now New Zealand butter remains at a premium compared to Europe. Right. And the European spot market may have found the bottom. But some people in the industry think it may go closer to €5,000. Tom. Which means if New Zealand doesn’t fold they’ll be losing share in the global market. So it’ll be interesting to see how the next few weeks develop going into the New Zealand peak production month, which is October.
00;03;04;13 – 00;03;27;22
All right, folks, stay tuned. Let’s get into the next chart. Sticking with the GTI event. I mentioned earlier that China was a little less active in this this event, 3388. And certainly the data suggest that as we look at North Asia, buying of Holmoe powder is a percent of sales down, versus 2023 and 2024 levels, as well as the prior event.
00;03;27;23 – 00;03;55;15
In general, the data did suggest that Homa powder had better demand than the prior event, but again, we did see GTI prices finish above expectations. Where did the demand come from? If China wasn’t the biggest buyer in the marketplace, Southeast Asia and the Middle East did pick up their purchases on the milk powder side. The other thing that I found really interesting from the event, 388, is that EU mozzarella was hit very hard.
00;03;55;16 – 00;04;19;25
We saw prices down pretty substantially into the 175 per pound range. Granted, that was off of some pretty small volumes, but it does really call into question with U.S. block prices in the mid one 60s and EU mozzarella in the mid one 70s per pound, is there a little bit more at stake as we look at exports going forward?
00;04;19;28 – 00;04;36;27
Are the EU exporters are going to win that business given their their recent reduction in prices, or are the U.S. exporters going to maintain share? Okay, Google, thinking about trade. What do you have for us on EU exports.
00;04;37;01 – 00;04;59;18
Well, Caitlin, this week, European July 2025 trade data was published, which was really highly anticipated in terms of exports. The trends were really mixed overall and have been tracking close to flat in Newcastle, its equivalent in the past 3 to 6 months. In July we saw some growth in cheese scheme and butter, but there were declines in other products like Whole milk, AMF and Dry Way.
00;04;59;19 – 00;05;22;14
The European Union this year has been losing share in contestable cheese markets. In the first part of the year this was to New Zealand, but in June-July it was to the US, which was really price competitive. But like you said previously, the price advantage for the US may have evaporated quite a bit in mid-September. So it’ll be interesting to see what happens going going forward.
00;05;22;18 – 00;05;48;01
Another interesting thing I am noticing the data is that Europe keeps exporting retail butter to the United States. In our network. There was some concern with the trade negotiations and whether or not, given all the tariffs, whether or not the European border will still be competitive going into the US market. But given it’s a relatively expensive niche product, we think there is still some room for growth going forward.
00;05;48;03 – 00;05;51;26
Turns out, Americans still really like that Kerrygold butter.
00;05;51;28 – 00;05;53;01
Yeah, it’s an amazing product.
00;05;53;03 – 00;06;18;20
Still tossing it in the cart, though. I do wonder because we’re on the topic of butter. As we’ve seen these butter prices in the US move lower. Is there a chance that we’ll see more aggressive promotions on the table for domestic retail fat going into the holiday season, and does that maybe skew some consumers to say it? You know that Kerrygold butter is pretty expensive.
00;06;18;20 – 00;06;40;15
The US product could potentially be fairly well discounted. Does that change consumer attitudes, especially those that are pretty focused on value? Luca, it’s a little bit of a weird one, something that we haven’t necessarily seen before. So I think it makes for a pretty interesting chart. What’s up with the EU importing butter from the US?
00;06;40;15 – 00;07;09;13
Yeah, there’s a lot of unusual things happening in the butter this month, and it’s a very rare occasion when I was more excited to see the imports rather than the exports. What’s basically happening is because of the very large price premium of the European butter market in recent months, Europe started importing American butter in New Zealand, MF, which both of them were at historic highs in the July data.
00;07;09;15 – 00;07;31;28
And another thing that we’ve noticed is that this year there have been increased imports of New Zealand whole milk powder into the European Union, and this has to do with the confectionery sector, which here they’ve been working hard to get more approval for New Zealand whole milk to be used domestically. And again these same like AMF and butter has to do with a bigger price per book.
00;07;31;28 – 00;07;47;26
Or do you think that this import of fat into the EU can continue, especially given the fact that we’ve seen significant decreases in EU cream prices and EU butter prices here in the last few weeks?
00;07;47;26 – 00;08;10;08
Yeah, very interesting to see how that develops over time. Even though the US butter did rebound a little bit today, it still remains so the huge discount. And I wouldn’t be surprised going into even Q1, Q2 2026, that will see some volume arriving into the European Union and pulling those prices lower given the large difference. Okay, Caitlin. So chart of the week.
00;08;10;08 – 00;08;11;11
What do we have this time?
00;08;11;14 – 00;08;38;12
This might not come as a surprise, but go with tease. It here in the last couple slides. But U.S. butter at multi-year lows I think is still hitting the chart of the week. And as we compare U.S. butter to the rest of the world, there is still a pretty stark discount out there on U.S. fat. You mentioned that U.S. butter dropped to the lowest level since October of 2021.
00;08;38;16 – 00;09;14;15
Yeah, we did see a 4 or 5 cent increase in CME spot prices here on September 17th. But still, when we compare that to European values, we’re we’re more than a dollar discount. When we compare that to GDP values more than a dollar discount when we compare that to New Zealand EMF values. And this is all on an 80% butterfat basis at a substantial discount, more than $0.50 per pound, which I believe is where the widest gap that we’ve ever seen between U.S. butter and New Zealand EMF.
00;09;14;16 – 00;09;48;17
So the US is still the cheapest fat globally across the key exporting regions. I guess I don’t necessarily have a good read on where fat out of India in particular is is trading today. But I think that this this does bring up some really interesting questions around how much fat in the US continue to export. If the European values are coming down in Europe, has more product to move, are there folks out there on the buy side that are willing to say, hey, you know what, I’m going to buy EU fat?
00;09;48;17 – 00;10;19;04
Because that’s the supply that I like. Yeah, it’s a little bit more expensive than the US product, but I’d rather buy what I like now that I can have and that I can get my hands on it. Or is the US in a position today where prices are so cheap relative to the rest of the world? No matter which index you look at across the EU or get values that buyers continue to go to the US to say, hey, I’m going to pick up your cheap fat, even though it’s maybe not my preferred supply.
00;10;19;08 – 00;10;38;02
Yeah, I think given how low prices have gotten, we shouldn’t be surprised to see high U.S. exports willing to mix. They’re going into maybe some of those more traditional price sensitive markets like the Middle East, where we’ve seen the US exports bigger volumes in the past when there was such a large price spread, I think we were well positioned to see something like that next year.
00;10;38;02 – 00;11;02;27
But the question again remains, given how renewed supplies are the average butterfat testes? What could potentially pull U.S. butter prices higher? I mean, today we saw the fed reduce interest rates. That tends to affect the US dollar and makes trading agricultural commodities go up. So it is bullish for commodity prices. But I think there is nothing else on the horizon other than domestic promotions to bring up butter prices.
00;11;02;27 – 00;11;25;20
I’m going to flip this question around to you. I’m of the opinion that there’s a lot of fat in the US, and we’re going into a okay, yeah, demand for butter is okay, but we’re making more fat each and every day at the farm level. And I think from a cream perspective, there’s plenty of cream around. The turns have been able to run well through the summer season, much more active than what we would typically see.
00;11;25;20 – 00;11;39;22
So I think as we go into the holidays here in the US, folks seem to have what they need. My question flip to you is, do you think that the global markets have further to come down in particularly? I’m going to I’m going to call out those T values.
00;11;39;22 – 00;11;57;20
Yeah. I think overall we may be approaching a bottom, but I wouldn’t be surprised in Europe, in the spot market if we go even sub €5,000 a ton, I’m of the opinion that demand tends to be a lot more sticky, right? And butter is simply not that price elastic. What moves prices this time around is the supply side them.
00;11;57;20 – 00;12;06;05
There’s just too much milk in the world and the markets respond to that. I think in Europe we could go lowering the spot market. Hopefully that answers the question.
00;12;06;07 – 00;12;15;24
We’ll find out. Right. But I think that the the global Fat Spaces is setting up for a very intriguing next few months. Here we’ll go. You want to make a bet?
00;12;15;26 – 00;12;16;11
Definitely.
00;12;16;12 – 00;12;31;18
Go ahead December 31st, 2025 is the EU butter price at 80% test going to be a dollar above the US value?
00;12;31;19 – 00;12;38;19
I think it will be a lower spread. Dairy markets tend to overcorrect on the way down and I simply think USA is too cheap right now.
00;12;38;21 – 00;13;01;25
I guess we should call out it’s $1.13 ish spread here today. So look I was going to take the under. Yep. On a dollar spread between us and EU. I mean I’m going to not take that same bet. I think we’re going to see a tighter spread I don’t know. Also I’d go to $0.75 just yet, but I think we might be kind of close.
00;13;01;25 – 00;13;05;13
Yeah. Let’s see I mean we still have three more months, another quarter.
00;13;05;14 – 00;13;26;08
All right. We’ve got some bold predictions out there. That’s it for chart chatter this week a huge thanks to Buko for his data wizardry and to Nana and the ever ag marketing team for mixing and mastering. If you’d like to learn more about how the ever I insights team can support your business, or if you have chart request or bold predictions, please contact us at insights@ever.ag.
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