Corn

  • March corn futures closed at $4.4375 per bushel, three cents higher on the week. May corn ended the week at $4.5150 per bushel, up 2.5 cents.
  • US ethanol production rose to 1.131 million barrels per day, up 2.4% week-over-week and +2.5% on the year. Stocks fell to 22.353 million barrels, down 0.7% on the week and -1.3% compared to last year.
  • US corn export sales totaled 1.793 million metric tons, at the upper end of the expected range.

CORN COMMENTARY BY LINDSEY CORE-LINNEBUR

  • Corn has been slowly trying to chop its way higher but has stayed mostly in the $4.35-$4.55 range.
  • US corn exports remain strong, and the weekly ethanol production report this week showcased record activity, so it’s clear that global and domestic demand for US corn continues apace. Ukraine is largely uncompetitive right now due to logistical challenges at the port, giving the US crop even more of an advantage.
  • The growing season continues in South America. Northern Brazil has continued to receive regular rain while the southern half of the country has trended drier. Argentina is also dry, but rain is forecast for next week.
  • With the holiday season firmly upon us, look for the market to be quiet over the next couple of weeks, but if new news enters the conversation, that could change quickly. 

Soybeans

  • The January soybean contract settled at $10.4925 per bushel, down 27.5 cents. March futures finished Friday at $10.5950 per bushel, more than 27 cents lower.
  • Soybean export sales were within predictions at 1.106 million metric tons.

SOY COMMENTARY BY JENNI BIRKER

  • Soybean futures experienced volatility as traders weighed China’s recent purchases against broader concerns about export reliability. Beijing secured at least 7 million tons of US soybeans, passing the halfway mark of its 12‑million‑ton commitment under the Trump administration’s agreement. Multiple cargoes were booked, signaling stronger demand, though USDA reports reflected lower official sales, highlighting the uncertainty of trade flows.
  • This week, producer uncertainty is still lingering after China’s earlier pullback from purchases, which left farmers cautious about acreage decisions. USA Today reported farmers in the Midwest and Northern Plains have scaled back soybean planting amid rising input costs and unpredictable trade conditions.
  • Speculative positioning continued to influence market sentiment. Following a rally during the US government shutdown, traders had built record long positions, but recent weeks saw renewed selling pressure. That pushed futures into a downtrend despite positive crush and export shipment numbers for soybean meal.
  • Overall, the soybean market this week reflected a tug‑of‑war between China’s renewed buying momentum and lingering skepticism about trade stability. While demand signals are supportive, farmer caution and speculative selling temper optimism, leaving the market in a delicate balance leading to price decline heading into year‑end.

Wheat

  • Nearby wheat futures ended the week at $5.0975 per bushel, almost 25 cents lower versus the Friday before.
  • With 460,655 metric tons sold, US wheat export sales were in the middle of the predicted range.

WHEAT COMMENTARY BY COLE WEINKAUF

  • The wheat market continues to slide lower and is now within shouting distance of the mid-October contract lows. Bullish news remains elusive, and a bearish global supply outlook shows no signs of ending. Global buyers do not seem to be in any hurry to secure supplies. For example, Egypt’s 2025 wheat imports are down 17% year-over-year. Russia’s July-November exports fell 17% and Ukraine is down 20%. French SRW ending stocks declined slightly to 2.74 million tons compared to 2.83 million last month and planted area is expected to climb 2.3% year-over-year, slightly below the five-year average.
  • On Wednesday, we saw a cancellation of 132,000 metric tons of wheat for delivery to China, a sale first reported on November 20.
  • COT data for the week of November 25 showed managed money net short just under 54,000 contracts, and current unofficial estimates have a total near 65,000. However, there is little fundamental news to trigger aggressive short covering. Even the Ukrainian sea drone strike on a Russian submarine at the port of Novorossiysk failed to offer any support.
  • Five dollars still seems to be solid support from a technical standpoint, and the market hasn’t been much lower than that in recent years. For traders in the market, we may be approaching short coverings or new longs entering the market.

Futures and options on futures trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Information contained herein is strictly the opinion of its author and not necessarily of Ever.Ag and is intended for informational purposes. Information is obtained from sources believed reliable but is in no way guaranteed. Opinions, market data and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past results are not indicative of future results. Brian Fletcher, Jon Spainhour and Jenni Birker maintain financial interest in the commodity contracts mentioned within this research report at the time it is published. Kathleen Wolfley, Lindsey Core-Linnebur, and Cole Weinkauf do not maintain financial interest in the commodity contracts mentioned within this research report at the time of publication. This report is in the nature of a solicitation.