In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss Dec Corn, Chicago Wheat, CME Cheese, and Oct Butter.
Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.
Charts sourced from Ever.Ag Platform.
[bg_collapse color=”#004053″ icon=”arrow” expand_text=”Show Transcript” collapse_text=”Hide Transcript” ]
Transcript (Auto-generated):
00;00;00;00 – 00;00;12;18
VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and it’s not suitable for all. Investor contact provided in the strike is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
00;00;12;18 – 00;00;19;29
CODY
Hello everybody, welcome to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody. He is Andy. It is June 15th, 2023, just about 4:00 in the Central Time Zone there, my friend.
00;00;19;29 – 00;00;24;12
ANDY
Just about, we’re super close. We got Father’s Day coming up, by the way.
00;00;24;12 – 00;00;26;16
CODY
We do. Happy Father’s Day to you.
00;00;26;16 – 00;00;27;26
ANDY
Happy Father’s Day to you!
00;00;28;01 – 00;00;29;28
CODY
Well, I don’t have any kids that I know about, so.
00;00;30;04 – 00;00;29;29
ANDY
You don’t know that. I mean, come on, don’t sell yourself short, OK? Don’t sell yourself short, you are a tremendous slouch.
00;00;37;01 – 00;00;43;21
CODY
It’s a glass half full kind of day over here.
00;00;43;23 – 00;00;45;10
ANDY
That’s right. Get that glass half full. You may- yeah. Dude, just take Father’s Day off anyways. It’s your day!
00;00;45;13 – 00;00;46;27
CODY
I appreciate that.
00;00;46;29 – 00;00;49;07
ANDY
Make sure you wear sunscreen, though. It’s that time of the year.
00;00;49;08 – 00;00;49;15
CODY
Duly noted.
00;00;49;19 – 00;00;53;10
ANDY
Did you help your- didn’t your neighbor cut down a tree or something like that?
00;00;53;16 – 00;00;58;05
CODY
Yeah, I watched it. Made sure it didn’t hit my house. Did pretty good. No insurance needed.
00;00;58;09 – 00;00;59;16
ANDY
House is still there?
00;00;59;16 – 00;01;00;15
CODY
House is still intact.
00;01;00;12 – 00;01;02;01
ANDY
Did you help them cut the tree down?
00;01;02;03 – 00;01;06;15
CODY
No, I just watched them. I had a phone and a camera to make sure.
00;01;06;17 – 00;01;10;03
ANDY
Come on. Aren’t you, like, shoveling the driveways for your neighbors or something like that?
00;01;10;06 – 00;01;14;02
CODY
Well, yeah, but just in case something hit the house I needed to have documentation.
00;01;16;12 – 00;01;24;21
ANDY
Fair enough. Speaking of documenting stuff, we should circle back here. We should- when you put a pin in stuff, we are gonna unput the pin.
00;01;24;23 – 00;01;29;05
CODY
Unpin it. We’re coming back to corn. We’re coming back to DEC corn, folks.
00;01;29;05 – 00;01;38;24
ANDY
Courtesy of Bilbo, John Billington in our office. He’s been just like, spot on with the corn, buying it, selling it, you know, you name it. What do you want to do here, dude?
00;01;38;26 – 00;01;48;29
CODY
And this is, man, give that close above the hundred day moving average today. And yeesh, kind of looks like a buy, right?
00;01;49;03 – 00;02;02;22
ANDY
It sure does. So, the green one is the hundred-day, right? So, we have the twenty-day, the fifty-day and the hundred-day. Let’s just take a quick peak at one thing here. I’m just gonna make this- instead of one hundred days I’m gonna make it two hundred days and see what it looks like.
00;02;02;22 – 00;02;07;18
CODY
So, I’ve got mine at about 584 is where it comes in.
00;02;07;19 – 00;02;11;11
ANDY
Yup, yup. So, I just changed mine from the one hundred-day to the two hundred-day.
00;02;11;14 – 00;02;12;22
CODY
There you go.
00;02;12;29 – 00;02;20;22
ANDY
I just threw that out there. I wanted to do that because it lines up really not quite, but it starts to- look at that. It lines up right where this market broke down from.
00;02;19;22 – 00;02;31;29
CODY
Yep. And I think an interesting part about the settle that we got today is you got above all the noise that we saw through March, April, you know, kind of fallen off into May right there.
00;02;32;13 – 00;02;35;29
ANDY
Yep, no, that’s- there’s a lot of selling that’s been left behind, I think.
00;02;36;14 – 00;02;45;01
ANDY
I mean, so if you go back, I’d like I said, we change it to two hundred-day, two hundred-day moving average, it’s, that’s a very popular, widely used amount of time, right?
00;02;43;24 – 00;03;00;03
ANDY
And the longer the average, you know, the less signals you should theoretically get, from a trading perspective. But, when it crosses through it and trades, you know, settles above it and opens higher, in this case, it just creates that much of a stronger signal.
00;03;00;18 – 00;03;08;26
ANDY
So, I think what’s interesting is that this two hundred-day landed right when this thing started to accelerate from the downside. So, it bounced here, traded through it and then just never really looked back.
00;03;08;27 – 00;03;09;09
CODY
Right
00;03;09;26 – 00;03;15;11
ANDY
So, it feels like that’s the next stop. That’s a dime away, but you have a really strong close here.
00;03;15;11 – 00;03;28;07
ANDY
And now what’s interesting, too, is that, you know, if you look at some of these different like technical indicators down below, the momentum indicator tried to break, made like some of these that will actually make their own patterns out of themselves.
00;03;28;09 – 00;03;39;08
ANDY
Right? So, they had a double bottom here and now it’s cleared this area right here. So, the momentum is very much in the favor here to go test this number. The question is, you know, what do we do when we get there?
00;03;39;22 – 00;03;46;20
ANDY
Close above that and then you open higher. But it could get- well. You might want to cut down all your neighbors’ trees.
00;03;46;23 – 00;04;00;04
CODY
Well, there is one thing. I mean, we did make on Monday? Monday, we made a pretty good gap on that chart at 535. So, there is that kind of staring us in the face yet. So, one thing to be cognizant of.
00;03;54;04 – 00;03;57;02
ANDY
There she is right there!
00;04;00;14 – 00;04;07;02
ANDY
Yeah. No, man, but this is a nice and healthy trend though. I mean look at- here’s a little kind of a sidebar too.
00;04;07;02 – 00;04;13;13
ANDY
So if you look at, like I said, we looked at some of these different indicators just as secondary. So like, again, like momentum, relative strength, those are supplements.
00;04;14;16 – 00;04;24;02
ANDY
Those in theory should be supplements to like a chart pattern, right? So if you have a technical pattern that’s taking shape on the chart itself, you look to like a secondary indicator to give you a little bit more confidence.
00;04;24;21 – 00;04;36;16
ANDY
But I mean, look at right here. So, it crossed into oversold territory on the RSI, so right here. Tried to do it again and failed to do so you have kind of like a higher level on that. And then started to go.
00;04;36;16 – 00;04;41;10
ANDY
And you had a similar type of divergence between there in the momentum as well.
00;04;41;13 – 00;04;48;11
ANDY
Right. So, you added try to get down here, here and then right there again, just higher lows the whole time.
00;04;48;14 – 00;04;57;17
ANDY
So, there were some indications there. Again, it’s easier to say in hindsight. but for those that are look at more the secondary indicator-type stuff, these are things to be mindful of.
00;04;58;14 – 00;04;59;17
ANDY
Going forward, I think we gotta go test this 200.
00;05;00;10 – 00;05;03;15
CODY
Here’s my question. And as you were speaking, I was kind of a drawn it out on my side.
00;05;03;15 – 00;05;17;07
CODY
Could you start at, and this is a question for you, could you start down at that 495 where we kind of bounced off of and call this an Elliott wave? Because you have, I mean, if you map it out, we kind of are
00;05;17;14 – 00;05;17;22
ANDY
You mean like right here?
00;05;18;14 – 00;05;19;17
CODY
Correct.
00;05;20;14 – 00;05;28;17
ANDY
Could be. I mean, I think the issue you are going to run into with that is that this candle is, I guess, too aggressive.
00;05;29;07 – 00;05;32;09
CODY
Okay. That was going to be my next question, actually.
00;05;32;09 – 00;05;37;12
ANDY
You’d want to see. So, if we go back and when we looked at feeders, let’s just do that real fast, hang on.
00;05;37;12 – 00;05;39;19
ANDY
So like feeders, this was wave three, right here.
00;05;40;17 – 00;05;43;01
CODY
Yep.
00;05;43;01 – 00;05;49;18
ANDY
So, this like you see how it’s a lot more just, I guess, stair step slower. You’re not seen as much as like a big candles.
00;05;49;18 – 00;05;51;01
CODY
Right.
00;05;51;01 – 00;05;54;00
ANDY
I think you’d want to look for something like that, whereas this just took off.
00;05;54;00 – 00;05;55;00
CODY
That’s a good point.
00;05;55;00 – 00;05;55;13
ANDY
I don’t know, is there any news out today? I didn’t see anything.
00;05;55;13 – 00;06;03;21
CODY
I didn’t see anything either. I think it’s all kind of based off the drought talk and the lack of rain, from what I’m understanding correctly now.
00;06;03;21 – 00;06;05;15
ANDY
Yea. You getting any rain?
00;06;05;17 – 00;06;07;15
CODY
Nope, nothing.
00;06;07;19 – 00;06;15;17
ANDY
We got- I mean. We got I think a little bit? Grass is- hang on. Yea, grass is brown. We could use a little rain.
00;06;18;18 – 00;06;19;07
CODY
Yeah, same and same
00;06;19;12 – 00;06;27;11
ANDY
Well, I think at the very least, again, two hundred-day has parked itself right where it broke down from. I think it’s going to test that. Let’s assume it does that and see where it goes from there.
00;06;27;21 – 00;06;29;05
CODY
For sure.
00;06;29;05 – 00;06;41;09
ANDY
I think if it breaks through that, closes higher and then opens higher the next day, you have a pretty strong case to continue to accelerate higher because you’d be breaking through what was once, you know, pretty good support.
00;06;39;19 – 00;06;41;03
ANDY
Mm hmm.
00;06;41;10 – 00;06;48;10
ANDY
You know, here, here and then became resistance. You know, closing above a two hundred-day like that, that’s a big number.
00;06;48;10 – 00;07;03;01
ANDY
Interesting one, to say the least. And like I said John Billington, in our office, Bilbo is calling it. He called us out, when we said to buy it like right here, you know, when it was right here in our face. Remember when we said to buy it like right here and see if you get below like this close you stopped out?
00;07;03;04 – 00;07;03;09
CODY
Yup.
00;07;03;14 – 00;007;08;17
ANDY
So, he’s. I’m almost positive he said sell it yesterday. I don’t know, you may want to reach out to him.
00;07;09;14 – 00;07;13;17
ANDY
So, speaking of ones we looked at earlier. I didn’t change anything.
00;07;13;21 – 00;07;17;09
CODY
Oof. Time to wear some egg on my face.
00;07;17;14 – 00;07;18;17
ANDY
Egg on Cody’s face.
00;07;19;04 – 00;07;26;24
CODY
And he called this one. This one? Yeah. I was wrong. I was definitely wrong on this wheat spread.
00;07;26;27 – 00;07;31;05
ANDY
This is, this is an interesting one. I don’t like. I guess just following up on it.
00;07;31;05 – 00;07;36;04
ANDY
I think we gotta go test that, and just see where we go from there.
00;07;36;16 – 00;07;45;09
ANDY
Right because like, if you look at some of the secondary stuff, like we talked about you’re getting- kind of hard to see- but you’re getting I want to say like divergence.
00;07;45;14 – 00;07;57;07
ANDY
But you’re getting kind of like some higher lows are starting to form right there, and then right there. Right, so that would be an indication that the bears are starting to lose control.
00;07;57;23 – 00;08;12;27
ANDY
Right, you want that chart onto itself to be just as bearish as this point if you could continue to sell them. Right. Alright so the fact that that is starting to lose some of its steam and approach, if it starts to approach zero again, that’s a really good indication that the bearers have lost control of this trade.
00;08;13;04 – 00;08;23;15
ANDY
So, I guess so that’s what I would be keeping an eye on. And then maybe you see that happen, at this like, yeah. Obviously very long-term trade. I mean, look how far. This goes back-beginning of the year.
00;08;23;15 – 00;08;28;28
CODY
So, you’re talking about, what, if we got another $0.10 downward from there? From where we close today?
00;08;29;01 – 00;08;29;08
ANDY
Yeah, yeah sure.
00;08;29;21 – 00;08;30;00
CODY
Ok.
00;08;30;04 – 00;08;38;28
ANDY
So, not too far but this stuck out to me when I first pulled up this chart. This momentum down here is losing, I guess, losing momentum to the downside.
00;08;39;00 – 00;08;39;07
CODY
All Right.
00;08;40;12 – 00;08;43;17
ANDY
Talk about momentum to the downside.
00;08;43;20 – 00;08;44;12
CODY
Back to dairy.
00;08;45;14 – 00;08;56;05
ANDY
Back to dairy. Bam, weekly cheese. So, we had this last time approaching long-term support. I don’t know man. What do you think here? I mean, it’s kind of due or die time for it, isn’t it?
00;08;56;12 – 00;09;01;25
CODY
I was gonna say, I think we’re kind of at that long term for it. We’ve kind of been there for a little bit here, yeah?
00;09;02;00 – 00;09;03;17
ANDY
We sure have been here for a while.
00;09;04;03 – 00;09;11;17
CODY
It’s just. I don’t know, man. I mean, it sure seems like we’re going to blow through that thing to the downside, in my opinion.
00;09;11;23 – 00;09;15;04
CODY
I mean because you had it circled right there, right? You haven’t changed anything on this chart, we had circled $1.00 for-
00;09;15;05 – 00;09;15;11
ANDY
You mean this gap right here?
00;09;15;18 – 00;09;18;15
CODY
Yeah, $1.30, right?
00;09;18;18 – 00;09;29;18
ANDY
I mean, so what? The USDA solicitation is, I mean, we’re supposed to be hearing more news about that. How much- well, it’s not so much how much cheese but the timeframe is the big question?
00;09;29;28 – 00;09;30;02
CODY
Right.
00;09;29;18 – 00;09;42;05
ANDY
So that said we’re not hearing a bunch of positive things fundamentally. I mean obviously milk has been pretty heavily discounted. So, I think there’s definitely a shot at getting through this support if we’re gonna do it. It seems like the fundamentals are kind of like, wrapped up, to be able to do that.
00;09;42;08 – 00;09;49;28
ANDY
And if we did, I imagine you’d probably go take a shot at, you know, breaking or getting into this. Like, this- try to go fill this gap.
00;09;50;03 – 00;10;05;05
ANDY
But if we did that, I think we definitely want to be looking at how forward. You know, getting into, like adding some long forward hedges. Or getting out of, or start, I guess, mitigating any existing shorts, sort of thing. You know, buying calls or something like that.
00;10;05;18 – 00;10;12;05
ANDY
But to see, I guess, kind of bringing it back, to see consolidation like this it, I don’t know.
00;10;12;18 – 00;10;29;25
ANDY
These last two candles, so. This is a weekly, so we still have another day. But you had an attempt last week settle well off the high here. And then opened lower, and yea. You are so far closing on the low of the week, it wouldn’t be too much more to get through this number here.
00;10;31;00 – 00;10;33;05
ANDY
This is, what, $1.43 and some change? Is that low right there?
00;10;33;08 – 00;10;33;14
CODY
Yup.
00;10;33;18 – 00;10;42;13
ANDY
So that’s another two and a half cents on average right there. So, take one of them down a nickel, and you’re there?
00;10;42;20 – 00;10;45;21
CODY
Well, and we still have one more day left in this trading week also.
00;10;45;24 – 00;10;54;08
ANDY
Correct, correct. So, the confirmation would be, let’s say, you break through it and then open low. If we did that then I think you got a shot at, you know, filling this gap.
00;10;54;10 – 00;10;58;21
ANDY
I don’t know. I- to me, it just seems like the market wants to keep bouncing around, we’ll see.
00;10;58;12 – 00;10;59;09
CODY
Mm hmm.
00;11;00;14 – 00;11;03;28
ANDY
This is a tough one. You know who we need back on, to talk about this?
00;11;06;20 – 00;11;07;12
CODY
Josh?
00;11;07;14 – 00;11;08;12
ANDY
You said it.
00;11;08;20 – 00;11;09;18
CODY
There you go.
00;11;09;20 – 00;11;12;14
ANDY
You read my mind; you were right there.
00;11;12;18 – 00;11;16;12
CODY
We gotta get Skolnik back in the, back on the show.
00;11;13;21 – 00;11;14;28
ANDY
Josh Skol, where are you-
00;11;16;22 – 00;11;23;06
ANDY
We asked him when he was coming back on and he just kind of nonchalantly said, “You’ll see me in 2023” or something like that. Maybe Paige can pull the-
00;11;23;06 – 00;11;25;13
ANDY
pull the episode and we can get the exact verbage.
00;11;26;15 – 00;11;28;05
JOSH
You’ll see me in 2023.
00;11;28;05 – 00;11;31;08
JOSH (slowed)
You’ll see me in 2023.
00;11;31;08 – 00;11;31;13
ANDY
And it is 2023.
00;11;31;16 – 00;11;36;16
CODY
I was gonna say, we’re almost halfway through 2023.
00;11;36;16 – 00;11;38;09
ANDY
We’re almost halfway through- it’s Father’s Day right around the corner.
00;11;38;09 – 00;11;43;17
ANDY
But I’d love to hear his opinion about cheese, because he loves to text and talk about how right he is all the time, so.
00;11;43;17 – 00;11;44;23
CODY
We need him on.
00;11;44;23 – 00;11;53;18
ANDY
We need him on! The market needs him on. Maybe we need to start another Jasco-countdown, like a public-what is it- like a public smear- what do they call those?
00;11;53;23 – 00;11;55;11
CODY
A smear campaign?
00;11;55;14 – 00;11;57;04
ANDY
A smear campaign or something like that. Just berate him on- no, I don’t know how well that’s gonna work against him.
00;11;57;15 – 00;12;04;22
ANDY
Alright, so you’re saying you think we’re gonna go fill this gap?
00;12;03;04 – 00;12;08;25
CODY
I do say that is what’s probably going to happen. That’s what it feels like, at least.
00;12;09;13 – 00;12;16;19
ANDY
Fundamentally, it’s in the cards. I mean, it certainly has a chance. We’ll see. Alright, what’s our last one? We got one more.
00;12;16;20 – 00;12;18;25
CODY
At least the butter, butter, butter; October butter.
00;12;18;26 – 00;12;20;05
ANDY
Yikes.
00;12;20;05 – 00;12;21;04
ANDY
That doesn’t look good.
00;12;21;04 – 00;12;26;11
CODY
As I say, rock-tober butter does not look very rockin. No.
00;12;26;11 – 00;12;29;27
ANDY
That doesn’t look very good at all. So, look at a that- we kept it at the two hundred-day moving average, by the way. That’s this green one.
00;12;30;11 – 00;12;42;02
ANDY
So, not only did you get a close below the two hundred-day, but then you cemented it in the next- so, this is yesterday’s session. We just closed today’s session. So, this is like the official candle for Thursday.
00;12;42;02 – 00;12;45;27
ANDY
I mean, this is- this looks like it wants to roll over pretty hard, right?
00;12;45;27 – 00;12;57;18
ANDY
You have a clear lower high right here, close below a lot of moving averages, obviously below a very large one right here the two hundred-day. And I believe this is premium to spot, not by much. Spot is 237?
00;12;57;21 – 00;12;58;29
CODY
That’s what I got.
00;12;59;06 – 00;13;04;29
ANDY
That’s not a big premium, but still. I mean, they start chipping away at butter here. This looks weak. I mean, this looks like it wants to.
00;13;04;29 – 00;13;07;26
ANDY
And I mean, there’s not a lot of like I guess, technical support here, too.
00;13;07;26 – 00;13;12;09
CODY
Right.
00;13;12;09 – 00;13;17;01
ANDY
Right, I mean this is all like, super low volume, low open interest trade, right? Yea, so no this looks weak. Looks like it wants to roll over.
00;13;17;01 – 00;13;20;13
CODY
Sure seems like it. I mean, I can’t argue with you on that.
00;13;20;13 – 00;13;25;00
CODY
Doesn’t look bullish. Does not look very bullish at this point.
00;13;25;03 – 00;13;38;15
ANDY
I love the, like, instead of saying ‘it’s bearish’, saying ‘it doesn’t look bullish’. You’re still trying to use the word bullish, right. All of your sentences but it’s- it’s not bullish but I’m still using the word bullish.
00;13;38;15 – 00;13;38;23
CODY
Right.
00;13;38;28 – 00;13;41;16
ANDY
I still need to get you that mouse that’s a left click only.
00;13;41;16 – 00;13;44;09
ANDY
On our platform, left clicking pulls up a buy ticket, so.
00;13;44;09 – 00;13;52;17
CODY
I don’t know what this one. I think you’re going to want the right ticket or the right part of the mouse attached to it for butter.
00;13;52;18 – 00;13;53;28
ANDY
All right, I mean. Or you could buy puts.
00;13;54;00 – 00;13;54;05
CODY
It’s true. It’s true.
00;13;54;18 – 00;14;01;12
ANDY
We’ll see, we’ll see.
00;14;01;18 – 00;14;07;17
CODY
All right. Well, with that everybody, that’s going to do it for another episode of Tech Talk with Cody and Andy. We appreciate you watching. Appreciate you tuning in every week.
00;14;07;17 – 00;14;16;09
CODY
If you have not yet please subscribe to the channel! Hit that like button. Give us a thumbs up. Be a friend. Tell a friend. We’d love to have as many more viewers as we can.
00;14;16;09 – 00;14;22;17
CODY
But until next week, everybody have a fantastic Father’s Day and a great week. We’ll see you next time.
00;14;22;17 – 00;14;23;06
ANDY
See ya!
[/bg_collapse]
The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-…
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod
