July 50-state milk production at 19.1 billion pounds, with daily output down 0.5% year-over-year.
First Impressions:
Friendly. US milk production declined 0.5% in July – that’s the weakest performance since May 2022. Output was a little lighter than the Ever.Ag model, but within industry expectations.
Cow numbers declined just 3,000 head month-over-month, slightly less than expected given the aggressive culling rates. But the June data was also revised lower, leaving the herd at 9,400 million head, off 8,000 from the previous report.
California milk production was down a whopping 5.5% – the biggest year-over-year decline since 2015. The combination of hot weather, tight on-farm margins, and a tough-to-beat number from last year all weighed on the result.
Similarly, in the Southwest, the relentless heat and low milk prices resulted in supply contracting 4.4% versus prior-year levels.
50-State Cow Numbers:
• 9,400,000 head
• Down 3,000 head month-over-month
• Down 13,000 head year-over-year
Regional Daily Production Data:
• California: Down 5.5%
• Mideast: Up 3.8%
• Midwest: Up 1.4%
• Northeast: Up 1.8%
• Pacific Northwest: Up 0.7%
• Southwest: Down 4.4%
International Output
• EU – June: +0.7%
• New Zealand – June: -1.7%
• Australia – June: +1.2%
• Mexico – July: +2.4%
• Argentina – June: -0.9%
• Brazil – March: -0.9%
