In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss weekly cheese, Jan class III and weekly butter.
Subscribe now for more great content!
Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.
Charts sourced from Ever.Ag Platform.
[bg_collapse color=”#004053″ icon=”arrow” expand_text=”Show Transcript” collapse_text=”Hide Transcript”]
(Transcipt auto-generated)
00;00;00;21 – 00;00;10;00
Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
00;00;10;02 – 00;00;20;17
Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is Andy. It is the 3rd of December 2020. Wow 2024 I do about.
00;00;20;17 – 00;00;22;19
It’s almost 2025. We’re getting close.
00;00;22;21 – 00;00;24;06
For 3 or 4 weeks away.
00;00;24;10 – 00;00;25;04
I was Thanksgiving.
00;00;25;11 – 00;00;31;20
It was really good. You know, besides the weather going from fall to winter within a matter of six hours, it was really good.
00;00;31;22 – 00;00;40;07
Did you eat a lot of turkey like I picture you with, like, holding, like the hammer and then like, having, like, a big, like, leg and just like, like just the two go hand in hand, obviously. Right.
00;00;40;11 – 00;00;44;07
As one would expect, I did. I still got it here. I haven’t been able to use it in a while.
00;00;44;09 – 00;00;45;17
Did you get some pie, by the way?
00;00;45;20 – 00;00;48;18
Oh, I’m not a pie fan. I don’t like pie.
00;00;48;20 – 00;00;49;03
Then.
00;00;49;06 – 00;00;54;01
Like, I think I feel like we go through this every year. I don’t like I don’t know, I just think pie is gross.
00;00;54;01 – 00;01;00;12
What’s your career kind of pie? Cool. Speaking of Thanksgiving, you like pumpkin? Do you put a big thing with cream on there too? Or just not always?
00;01;00;14 – 00;01;12;00
I don’t know why not all pies like. Yeah, I don’t like. The only one that I can stand is pumpkin. Like, everyone makes these weird pies. Apple, rhubarb, pumpkin. Just.
00;01;12;02 – 00;01;26;19
I, I don’t know if I’d take apple pie as, like a weird pie. I’d say pretty people don’t like fruit like it is. You can get a rhubarb. I can understand, but like, no apple is, you know, it’s like as American as apple pie. Like you’ve never heard that expression.
00;01;26;22 – 00;01;30;26
Yeah. I just eat the apple off the tree. Not. No, I.
00;01;30;26 – 00;01;44;04
Feel like that. I feel like that’s a challenge. I’m going to find your pie that you’re gonna like. Okay, I’ll put a pin in it. We’ll circle back as a throwback back. We’ll let’s circle up on some cherries. So we had a couple requests. We did Jason in class three. We’ll start with cheese.
00;01;44;07 – 00;01;45;16
Give him our good buddy Adam.
00;01;45;18 – 00;02;01;13
And good buddy Adam was a name. Also happens to have the word get it? How about that? Our good buddy Adam. Name is good in it. Fill this gap here. Right? This was the gap that we had. We you know, we all kind of looked at and we’re like, oh, is this if we break here this is a big target.
00;02;01;18 – 00;02;20;05
Broke that not feeling great but also not seem to be finding like we got to 116 I think barrels get super close to one 6116 a half. Yeah I seem to run into some support. Their features were always premium to that price. It seems like we’ve gotten to the other end of the spectrum, or when we at like record high barrels, there was a big discount built into the futures.
00;02;20;05 – 00;02;32;06
But now that we’re kind of on the lower end of this, you’re seeing a premium built in the futures. So futures are telling us cheese is worth more like kind of in this area right here. Question is do we keep going down basically right. I feel like that’s ultimately the question people want to know.
00;02;32;08 – 00;02;54;08
I mean it’s only Tuesday and you have to think last week was only a three day trading week, right on the CME. We were out for Thursday and Friday. So we’ve almost engulfed all of last week’s candle there. I just I don’t know do you get the we do have a small little gap that we created at what $1.73 from two weeks ago.
00;02;54;11 – 00;03;08;07
Do you get back up there and fill that gap at this time period where we sit? I don’t know. Do we break down to $1.50 first? I would be more on that side of the boat. I think we go to $1.50 before we start our rally much higher.
00;03;08;09 – 00;03;13;16
This would imply what you’re saying is that we’re going to go test this long term upward trend.
00;03;13;18 – 00;03;14;25
Which is about at a buck 50.
00;03;15;01 – 00;03;41;12
Okay. More or less. It depends on how quickly you get there. You make a great point about whether or not like we’re totally engulfing last week’s trade potentially. And we’ve gotten there yet. But we’re getting close. Today is only Tuesday right. We had Tuesday. So a lot of time left in the week. But what Cody is talking about is that, you know, this bar was you know, where the open that not that far away call 167 the basic wego trade like one 67.25 which is only one and a one and a quarter cents higher from here.
00;03;41;12 – 00;04;04;13
You will have been golfed last week straight because we did open this week lower technical. Right. So we open a little bit lower pop back up. And then we had today’s session. I agree with you. I think you got to go down here and test some of this stuff. Test this out right here. There’s obviously some talks about potential for like front loading ahead of you know like obviously with our, you know, the incoming president saying there’s going to be some tariffs that are going to put into place for people front load ahead of that.
00;04;04;15 – 00;04;24;17
Certainly possible. But then again you don’t see a ton of like technical support here for that to really begin. You probably looking for like kind of like a pattern like this, right, where you have a couple big down days, you in golf and then start to go, yeah, we haven’t seen it yet. Starting to see like the beginning of it, but you really haven’t seen it yet.
00;04;24;17 – 00;04;39;02
So it’s tough to say that this time to get long. To your point, I think it’s, it feels like there’s more of a chance for this to go down here and test. Oh, would this be kind of like the mid mid to low one 50s? Maybe that doesn’t happen until after the start of the new year.
00;04;39;05 – 00;04;49;07
Yeah. But I think looking back at $1.40 not saying we’re going to go there first, but the market definitely does not like to stick around a buck 40 for sure. Long at all for sure.
00;04;49;09 – 00;04;50;05
Yeah. Totally agree.
00;04;50;10 – 00;04;55;20
If there was a trip down there I think it’d be a quick trip, get exports out the market and then rally ourselves back higher.
00;04;55;23 – 00;05;01;27
Yeah, yeah, I agree. One of the questions that I was asked is are we going to see something like maybe like this.
00;05;01;29 – 00;05;03;25
Fill that and then come back down.
00;05;03;27 – 00;05;19;11
I think that’s definitely possible. Especially if we can like you know closed the week higher than previous week. Maybe start to get some of that buying that comes in. And people kind of say like you done going down I’m going to put in more orders. I mean we’ve certainly seen a significant break, right. But we’ve got but that said we didn’t see that here.
00;05;19;18 – 00;05;35;23
Totally different price level, right? I mean, we went from 189 to 197 189, probably one if you know what I mean. Like that didn’t happen that previous time. It’s a totally different price point, right? So I get that. But last time we saw that didn’t happen. It didn’t play out that way. So I guess I want to be a little bit mindful of that.
00;05;35;23 – 00;05;54;20
But yeah, I mean to me this feels like the most probable right or potentially right coming. Right. We get this kind of pop or and then come back down, run out of gas around what what prices those. Yeah. 172 173 whereas these guys are right now this is 177 174 so we had a big pop today in Jan.
00;05;54;21 – 00;06;08;21
And it’s basically saying that’s kind of where we’ll start to run out of gas. So we’ll see. It feels like this is go in question is what do you do with it? Right. Let’s say we’re right and we get this little popper that ultimately comes back down the other chart. The good one to look at was Jan class three.
00;06;08;23 – 00;06;09;25
Big day to day.
00;06;09;27 – 00;06;21;29
Big day. We might have drawn this last time. I thought we drew some, Fibonacci retracement. I know I have it on mine, and obviously we blew through the downside of that retreat. Yep, that’s exactly what I had to.
00;06;22;02 – 00;06;23;05
Let’s go to here, where it still.
00;06;23;05 – 00;06;28;02
Had my bottom at 1848, starting when we took that run up higher in August.
00;06;28;04 – 00;06;31;18
So. Okay, I see what you’re saying. Yeah. Yeah. So about right.
00;06;31;18 – 00;06;33;14
There. Yeah. Exactly. Okay.
00;06;33;17 – 00;06;57;06
Well, easy to say in hindsight, right. That we blew through it. So let’s add it to where you can make the argument that we stopped going sideways and started to trend higher, which is kind of in this area. Right. It’s 18 bucks. Basically. They’re they’re super close in the market. Starting to find some support there. Do we see this has been obviously a significant break right from $21 down that down to close to 18 Bob you’re talking about a $3 break.
00;06;57;08 – 00;07;22;14
It’s massive. Yeah it’s a big move. Like you’re talking about six grand a car. So yeah like do we see some sort of retracement of all of this. It sure feels like it. So if we just narrowed this to here, right. Getting back up and just a third retracement just over 19 bucks, I think that’s possible I think so there is you pop cheese back to like 172 173.
00;07;22;14 – 00;07;31;23
You know you take the market. But where are we at now 1875 you’re talking about another 30 or 40 cent rally from here. I think that’s more than doable. More than doable. The question is what do you want to do with it?
00;07;31;25 – 00;07;43;12
Right. Well, I just going to ask you the same things. If you don’t draw even a downward trend from even if you do. Yeah, I’m a big wick just like that. You get back into that 1917, 1920 range. I personally, I think you’d be a seller at that.
00;07;43;12 – 00;07;48;26
W okay, I agree. And look at I mean look at how these two converge to go bam right.
00;07;48;26 – 00;07;50;20
There you go.
00;07;50;22 – 00;08;09;02
I mean look how those two converge right. So I think that’s going to be a pretty pivotal price point right. It’s a testing of that trend. But also to it’s 33% retracement. It feels like we’re going to go trade that price not that far away I think you could take cheese back to ones with like we just looked at at the like kind of get to the upper end of that range in in the spot chart.
00;08;09;07 – 00;08;16;15
What we’ve seen here over the last couple of weeks, you’re talking about like 172, 173. Not that big of a rally, right. You just went from 260 in the barrel to 160.
00;08;16;17 – 00;08;28;04
Yeah. The kind of thing I mean dry way is keeping us pretty well, I want to say propped up in class three. But let’s be honest, right away on spot trading, about $0.70 right now is really keeping that price kind of elevated.
00;08;28;11 – 00;08;38;28
Sure, sure I agree for sure. I mean, everyone does it every penny and way. Success in class, right? It’s a big spend. Take the market and you take away from 70 to 60. You’re talking about $0.60 in the class three.
00;08;39;01 – 00;08;39;15
Exactly.
00;08;39;21 – 00;08;52;26
That’s a massive move. So I think we’re on the same page. It feels like we could see some more strength there stemming off of, you know, potentially like just cheese kind of carving out about and finding a little bit of support. But ultimately, I think you got to be of the mindset to be a seller.
00;08;52;28 – 00;08;53;11
Agreed.
00;08;53;15 – 00;09;06;07
We shall see. Now, this is this 2025 feels like it could be quite the wild year. Tariffs building up. You know you get some plants opening up. Milk production is kind of you know we’ll see how that goes. A lot of stuff.
00;09;06;15 – 00;09;18;04
It feels like when we walked into the beginning of 2024 it does I mean take away the, you know, the elections and all that kind of jazz. But where prices are, it really feels like we’re we walked into the beginning of this year.
00;09;18;04 – 00;09;34;18
I totally agree. I think you could see a repeat of last year somewhat right where you beat it up the beginning of the year and then you, you know, get a bunch of stuff booked and start to go. But yeah, we shall see. Maybe this year you’ll need some pie to ask what. That’s possible. It’s not likely, but it’s possible.
00;09;34;21 – 00;09;36;27
Last one. Yeah. This is a message to Minnesota.
00;09;36;27 – 00;09;40;16
Dan $2.50. Spot butter.
00;09;40;19 – 00;10;02;22
So we’re basically I mean look at where look at where 250 is. Yeah. Relative to the point where it’s been. Right. All this support right here. Once it broke through it, once it broke through 250 after trading sideways for several I mean almost, almost a whole year that it traded sideways right here. It just took off. So 250 I mean, it’s it’s clearly a number where the market does not want to sit still once it moves away from it.
00;10;02;29 – 00;10;24;13
It’s a question of do we continue to break. Right. Like it certainly has a lot of momentum to the downside. If you look here to cross zero and hasn’t looked back since, but it’s also got a lot of history and technical stuff to get through. But if it does, I mean, my gosh, like, you know, 230 seems like a likely spot to go back to right the beginning of all this.
00;10;24;13 – 00;10;43;05
Let me just move this. You can see this numbers a little more clearly. There we go. Yeah. So 230 is also kind of where this where we kind of saw all this noise to 32, 35 I feel like that’s in the cards. And only because again this this right here, these two, these three bars are just kind of a sign, a big sign of weakness in my eyes.
00;10;43;08 – 00;11;04;22
Right. Like you had this. It is huge break. And then this is all that they could muster in terms of like a retracement and then, you know, right back through it. So do we see something similar. It sort of feels possible, you know, where you kind of pop ourselves back up to I mean, where was this, 272, you know, so call it like a ten, 12 cent rally from here.
00;11;04;24 – 00;11;24;24
So call it two. We go back to 260, you know, in the here, right? I guess that wouldn’t be a big surprise. It’s not that big of a move. And we’ve seen how how quickly butter can move on a week to week basis. So that’s my I guess I feel like we’re due for something kind of similar that we’ve just talked about in cheese, where you’re going to come back up a little bit, retrace some of the stuff and then proceed lower and into like new lows for this move.
00;11;24;26 – 00;11;41;19
Yeah, I think you hit it right on the head off down to 230. We could do that by the end of this year. What, three weeks left in the year for three and a half you can get down to three. My biggest question is if we get down there and butter, do we, you know the the next place to stop would be $1.60.
00;11;41;19 – 00;11;50;11
Do I see it’s going to be $1.60 butter. No. But on the chart just looking at it blatantly what you have drawn over here, that’s kind of the next testing point after.
00;11;50;13 – 00;12;07;16
You got to think that that would encourage by. Yeah, I think so. Especially when you start let’s say we’re there. You know, let’s say we are there by like mid-January. Where were we early? Well, I they were that much of it wouldn’t be that much of a difference. But we were okay so late. Call it 270 ish. I mean we were on a like this.
00;12;07;16 – 00;12;27;26
All those noises call it to 65 on average. So it would be much better relative the previous year, but also to like what they could get for Bob would be nearly way better. Correct. Oh I think you start to see some of that. But I mean like we got to go there first. Yeah. Short story long. 250 is a big number getting through that, closing through that and then proceeding to open lower and move it.
00;12;27;26 – 00;12;40;22
That’s I think that’s a that would be a huge deal for this market futures don’t see anything. So they’re nice and premium. Yeah. Yeah pretty big premium built into them. So price good price action there today. So yeah spot market’s got to go prove itself first.
00;12;40;24 – 00;12;53;12
And maybe this is the thing. Like you said we started out around this around the same price point at the beginning of this year. Maybe it’s sink. Got a dance where we start out at 255 to 60 and trickle our way back to $2.80.
00;12;53;14 – 00;12;57;23
Then you’re going to be dancing in 2025. You’re going to eat in pie in 2025.
00;12;57;23 – 00;12;58;21
Big year.
00;12;58;23 – 00;13;04;04
I may or may not get a tattoo. Like who knows, dude, new year, new you knows.
00;13;04;07 – 00;13;06;13
We’ll see. Yeah. When are you going to show it off on the show?
00;13;06;15 – 00;13;12;24
Sure. All right. Well, it depends on where you get it to. I mean, I don’t know, I guess, like, I’ll have to ask space. We have to ask page.
00;13;13;00 – 00;13;16;19
So even lawyers involved.
00;13;16;21 – 00;13;19;28
Get get the lawyers involved. Well, aren’t you go to the moon center.
00;13;20;03 – 00;13;32;26
No. We got a big year, man. That’s a big yeah. Speaking of that, we do need to get a few more likes. Subscription ones, followers before the end of this year. Until all my promises from Phil in the insights team comes true.
00;13;33;00 – 00;13;37;13
I just want to see you in our space. You don’t even have to go to the moon. Just like, let’s just go to space.
00;13;37;16 – 00;13;45;27
That’s like all of our friends that are watching. Please, if you had not subscribed, do please do so. Tell your friends. Tell your family. Hit that notification bell for us also.
00;13;45;29 – 00;13;46;28
What’s it called? Smash and.
00;13;46;29 – 00;13;48;07
Smash. Smash that bell.
00;13;48;08 – 00;13;49;15
Smash, smash that bell.
00;13;49;17 – 00;14;05;03
All right, well, that’s going to do us for another episode of Tech Talk. And you know, I will be back with you guys next week. Hopefully warmer weather. I doubt it because it’s the middle of beginning of winter. Then this is kind of what we get here in the Midwest. But till then everyone try to stay warm. Have a great week and even better weekend.
00;14;05;05 – 00;14;06;17
We’ll see you next week.
00;14;06;19 – 00;14;07;02
See you later.
[/bg_collapse]
The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-…
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod
Block Cheese: $1.6400, unchanged, 4 lots tradedBarrel Cheese: $1.6150, unchanged, … Read more