Tech Talk – Confetti Ready – December 31, 2024

January 2, 2025

In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss Feb hogs, weekly cheese and Feb class III.

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Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

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Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is Andy. We are the tech talk trio. It is the last episode of the year because it is New Year’s Eve. How are you doing?

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Happy new year. Happy almost new year.

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Happy almost new year. Couple more hours. But you’re not. You are in the swing of things.

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Ready to go? Look at this hat. I mean, this thing is just like it is not getting any better than these hats right here.

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You got the hat? Yeah.

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The the thing. Well.

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We’re referring to fairing now. Ready?

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We got the confetti. Ready. Dude, where’s your hat?

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I don’t have one, but. But I did put on my original race dairy fleece sherpa lined sweatshirt.

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That is arguably the most I still have. Mine, too. And that’s arguably the most comfortable sweatshirt you’re ever going to have in your life.

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It is the nicest sweatshirt.

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You’re not going to make that argument right now.

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I completely agree. My first week, John Spain how found in the closet, threw it at me and promptly told me, never say I didn’t give you anything.

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There you go. Never say never. And that would be said. Never say never.

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I shout out to John Spencer.

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I had a chance by an Arab Bieber. There you go, gentlemen.

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In the scholar.

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Sorry, that’s the last time. I swear I just threw it over there. So was. That’s over there. Now, speaking of, like, things that have gone well this year. Yeah. How many subscribers do we have?

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We’ve got over a thousand subscribers.

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Over a thousand subscribers. How about that?

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It’s a win.

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Give me a yeah.

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Oh yeah.

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Yeah baby. We’re like, you’re going to the moon at like ten.

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Oh we’re supposed to get a 10,000, but we got over a thousand. So on our trajectory, another nine years from now we’re in the ballpark.

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I think that’s that’s going to be exponentially growing, though. I mean, like you get to a thousand. It’s like 2000 for the, you know.

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You by July of 2025, we get 2000.

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I think we can be more than that. So I think it would be more than that with hats like this. Come on.

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And we’re killing it.

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Speaking of killing it, we got some charts. We have one request. One, one. That’s all we need for the new year. That’s it. This is fab hogs. Came at requests from dank Mr. Dank, very expensive, very expensive. Put it in the. What is it like the notes or whatever in YouTube if you know what show that’s from. So Mr. Dank wanted to look at pigs.

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This is fab hogs. I just label them pigs. What do you think he was?

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Well, I’m looking at on this side, and I’ve got the 102 hundred day simple moving average drop below the hundred day moving average, but did not settle there. It crossed at about 80.5 and could not settle there.

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Okay, I see what you’re saying. And so we didn’t get a close below. So traded below that price didn’t close below that price. So you’re saying that there’s there’s still a chance for this thing to kind of perk back up. Is that what you’re saying.

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Which wall was our low. Our low was 80 on the spot today 80.

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Right on the Dow. How about that. Right on the button. And first thing I thought of when I saw this, is this going to be a head and shoulders.

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Oh continuation on Thursday. Yeah. Pushing us.

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Oh yeah I yeah I think this is a head and shoulders. I think one of the things that sticks out to me the most is that this shoulder line, if you will, is above it. This high kind of managed to kind of stick itself above the previous high. And each time you tried to get kind of back above, look at this one is trying to say bam and then try to do it again.

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Nope. Not the best. So each time you try to punch through it on that third go around, right. It just no not happening. And then to break through really it’s here right? You call it like the neckline. That is a sign of weakness. So I hear what you’re saying about the the hundred day moving average. That said this looks like a head and shoulders.

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And if it is, then I would expect or I would be looking for if you will. So that’s really where it move. Let’s not move right there. So let’s call it like $0.10 okay. So take $0.10 kind of off of where this neckline is 82 down to 72. That takes it down to about like right there.

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Got a little bit. So you are a seller of hogs.

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I think you got to be a little bit short. I mean like they said you get the head and shoulders pattern plan out. You broke through this. The neckline right here at base. That’s a sign of weakness. And then you open it. Managed to stick a close lower than yesterday’s open or yesterday’s close. So. Oh no I mean you think about all this buying or two right here basically from here.

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This is going back to what is this? It’s like Halloween time, right? It’s going back to like TikTok, Halloween, like all the buying that took place since Halloween, basically in this contract is now underwater. It’s no good.

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They probably wash our shoulder in that time period and.

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I don’t well.

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I mean, it was by.

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Who knows they know the buy and that’s okay. Sorry. That’s it. Yeah I mean this this last week I said this. It looks like a head and shoulders get a close below the 102 that you’re talking about. And I think it really starts to like fall apart, accelerate itself. Accelerate acceleration. Yeah. Oh what’s your favorite like pig product.

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Because a lot of stuff comes off a pig when you think about bacon bigamy. Bacon I was going to say bacon too. I’m a bacon fan. I think it’s hard to get around like you put bacon on so many things.

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Put it on anything. Great minds think alike. You can crush it up, put it in a salad. I mean, tell me something that you can put on sandwiches, burgers and salads. There’s there’s not there’s not much.

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And you can have it for breakfast.

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So I’m talking about breakfast. Great minds.

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And yeah. Bacon. Got some bacon. Let’s go. So there’s a lot I would say of pigs. It’s a magical I hope it was that episode of The Simpsons where it was like.

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What about bacon? No ham.

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No.

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Pork chop.

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Dad, those all come from the same animal.

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Yeah, right. He’s a wonderful, magical animal.

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Anyways. Yeah. Thank you so quick. You got a lot of room to retrace. I mean, let’s just go do this real fast before. I mean, I think you could argue that that, like, it really started to accelerate once it broke 75. Right. And so if we use let’s just use 75. Let’s do 75 ish. There we go. And then that high C broke through 50% tried to get through two thirds.

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Couldn’t do it. So that two thirds number I think it’s going to be pretty key. And it coincides. Look at that. Just with your 100 day moving average. How about that Jack. Am big number right there 80.5. Yeah I think you break through it and once you do it’s next up 75.

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The way you paint that chart right there, it sure looks like it.

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Well thank you, Mr. Dank. We appreciate it. Keep him coming. We got a couple more a couple two more charts we want to look at here, don’t we? We do. I didn’t touch anything. I didn’t touch anything the last time. We like to. It’s been a couple weeks since we looked at this bad boy. It has. This is weekly cheese.

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This is this week’s bar, remember? It’s only what they said I Tuesday, all this Tuesday. So we’re at there’s no trading tomorrow. Correct. So but we saw two more. Two more trading sessions for this bar. Had a nice little breakaway gap to start the week. And the question is can it continue to go like it’s kind of it’s almost like it’s do or die time?

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I mean, I think if this thing just kind of stops and doesn’t continue and let’s go test all this noise like this one, then you area, I think it starts to really run out of gas.

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I feel like there’s another test of $1.90 where at what, one 86.75. Right now we’re so we’re close right. Call it $0.03 away.

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Yeah. Not that far away. I mean, the cheeses higher today. Two cheeses, little higher features. Not really believing it. Right I mean futures had a pretty aggressive sell off post cash. That said it’s not that much of a premium now in the futures. And so to your point, if they keep pushing cash up it could get a little bit dicey.

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But yeah I agree. I mean we kind of drew this. We didn’t we had this kind of like area of consolidation is like the like the completion of like of the bottom. Yeah. Right. I think we both ingredients that further upside in cash is probably going to be met with resistance and then turn it back lower. And it’s just how high we go is going to be that much more aggressive break.

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But I think you and I both agree a shot at 190 getting back in all this noise is certainly in the cards. It’s not that far away. It’s $0.03 higher. We are a nickel higher. Yesterday basically. Or $0.04.

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I ran into me like where I know we’re going to look at features in the second, but it just feels like end of the quarter, end of the year, sell off yesterday. Yeah. It just really felt like that continues after spot.

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I mean that’s certainly possible right? Cash has to break. Yeah. In order to justify starting to really like beat up futures from this point. So I, I threw this out there. There’s one gap. There’s another little baby gap right here. It’s not the biggest one, but there are some like kind of unfinished business. Right. If we start to do turn lower this one obviously becomes a big target.

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The question is, you know, how much lower let’s say we roll over. How much do we go? I don’t think we would look at that until we get like a definitive answer out of the corner of the market. I feel like what’s come in is something like this, that two bar pattern right there where I feel like this is going to be this week’s bar.

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This one.

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Yeah.

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And then next week we’re gonna have a bar like that 82. And that feeling, the way the futures are acting like I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw another little push in cash, take us back into this area and then just have this like, you know, engulfing bar where, you know, by the end of the week, you know, if we start the week at 192, we end the week at 188 or something like that and offer whoops, there we go.

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Happy New Year. There we go.

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Back on I think it I, I am in agreement with you and to expand upon that, I think that pushes us into the long term. So once we roll over, let’s see if we go back to $1.90 this week, get up to $1.90. We start rolling over next week. I think we could push down to probably one dollars the exactly long term you start getting into the second half of this year, June, July, August.

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And I think that’s when we really start seeing that rip back up. Oh, just just like what happened back at a buck 40 in 2023. Got it okay.

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So I’m going to hold off on taking it any further from there. But I am going to say I am going to at least label this bad boy. If I could figure out how to work this thing, they changed it up on me.

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Yeah, right before the new year too.

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And how about that new year, new you, by the way, what you do you have any New Year’s resolutions?

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I don’t do resolutions. I was reading something that resolutions only last for the month of January. You know, most people’s only last three weeks. I guess I’d be the whole month January.

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But this month.

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I just know since making a resolution, just try to be a better person.

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Yeah, there you go. So if that was going to be your resolution to be a better person, you could tack on another resolution and say that you want one of your other resolutions to be that you complete a New Year’s resolution. That means you do two little of the New Year’s tip for you.

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My brain hurts after that.

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I know, I know, I want. I’ll let that sink in and then we’ll go. Let’s go to the next Jared. Well, we’ll give you a little break. All right. Here we go. So last but not least, this is the class three. All right. What do you think? We’ve given you a long enough break after we did a little brainbuster for you.

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Well, quite a retracement today. Again. End of the quarter end of the year. Kind of figured we would had a little bit of a break. We got up to a high of 29.

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$20.90.

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A lot of volatility I think we talked about this before like the volatility the movement now on these markets and all the holidays are going to be past us is going to be just wicked.

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Yeah for sure. And the option volatility is super high too relative to what we normally see. So it’s we’re seeing that other places too. Right. But I I drew this this is kind of like this longer term uptrend. Big warning sign here today that the you know we had took a shot in the new contract. Highs today.

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Obviously you said $20.90.

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Yep.

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Completely failed. Totally took you know took out yesterday’s rally and then some. And now we’re encroaching on this big update in here. I think the real test is going to be getting through this. It feels like we’re going to go and test this trend, which if we do I mean, that’s still a pretty big break from here. Isn’t it worth Sports Illustrated price 2036.

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You’re talking about getting down here and call it like 1975 ish. Yeah, 1980. I think that’s going to be the real test for this market for February in particular, is if we roll over and break this trend, I think it’s going to require your W like you talked about in class now where you had your brain busted. But I think it till like, I think you’ve got to go test this trend and then see what happens.

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So let me ask you this because we were just talking about cash. If we push to $1.90 by the end of this week, Thursday, Friday, even next week we could do $1.90. Do you think we make new highs? Do you think we go to $21 in February before we roll over and then test that line?

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No, no, I think I think no, I don’t I think you’re just going to see like a, a discount get built into Feb and maybe we maybe we retrace some of today’s break, don’t get me wrong. But like going back over to 28, going to like a $21 type trade.

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Because we were close. We’re within $0.10.

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Close for sure. But again I don’t if they’re able to keep cash and get back into that, that midpoint that we talked about, I think you start to see a discount get built into like 7th March. And I think if that’s happens then that’s kind of like the, the, you know, the nail in the coffin for the cash for us to think that we can roll over, they start to build in a discount.

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You know, what would that be? Two weeks before you start pricing the futures contract. That’s that would be a big warning sign.

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And then you start rolling over cash. You think February March accelerate themselves lower okay.

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Yeah I like I said, I think the real test is going to be this trend. Can we break it. You’re talking about getting back below like 1975 starting to test some of like a low nineteens type stuff. It’s certainly possible. I can recall when we got down in on an 18 handle, it felt like, you know, we start to see more volume pick up.

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It was getting a little bit more difficult to get futures lower and keep them down there. Right. This kind of area. But there’s a that’s a long way from now. Yeah. First test I think it’s getting we got to get to this trend.

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I agree with you.

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Let’s see.

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Do you sure see the data lower and.

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Pull down and sure to us. What’s about that. It sure does. And I think spot by the way everybody opens down the hand.

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Yeah. It’s like the what’s in this or what’s in this. And here comes this one.

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Right now is what’s going on over here like it’s a mystery.

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Unbelievable. That’s great. Awesome. All right, everybody, well, we greatly appreciate you watching our show this year. Joining us on our tech talk adventures. Thank you to Paige as she does her magic every single week with Andy and I on here. Yeah. Just absolutely killing it. Thanks for everyone. Get this. Over a thousand subscribers, it wasn’t quite 10,000 like we were predicting, but hey, we’re going to work harder next year to get to 2000 5000 and then 10,000 subscribers.

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And you’re still going to do a tattoo if you get the 10,000, right?

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If we get 10,000 by the end of next year, I’ll get a TikTok tattooed right on my leg. Be proud of it.

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I guess you do like it for like, life and maybe spell life like life or something like that. I mean, dad Lorene.

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Right underneath it.

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Sure, I love it. Here you go.

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I love it, I love it. All right, well, with that being said, everyone, thank you so much. Be safe tonight and we’ll see you next year.