In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss spot whey, spot butter and Feb class III.
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Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is Andy. Together we are the Tech Talk trio bringing you charts of the day that we see interesting for all our viewers to enjoy with us.
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You and I are duo per page. You page and I are a trio, so which one are we talking about?
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And I say as a trio.
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You didn’t say trio. That’s okay. There’s pages or pages or there. It’s a trio. She’s you know, she’s the brain sees the real brains behind the operation that is true. I mean, let’s just call a spade.
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And I forgot the weirdest pager. Shout out. She is a trio. We are the two.
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And she keeps telling me that I have a face for radio. So you know, who knows what that means? I don’t know, but I think a.
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Lot of us of this company kind of fall into that same category.
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You think so?
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I do.
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Okay, no, fair enough.
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But it’s all right. And you.
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Know what? That’s okay. How is your long weekend, by the way?
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It was good. You know.
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Got a little chilly, a little cold yesterday.
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A little cold on Sunday. Going to be really cold tonight.
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Did you say for Italy like fry. Prettily, prettily.
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And then we slowly clam ourselves back out for Barilla.
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Is that pretty? I got to think about how I would spell Italy. Is it or.
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It’s an adjective.
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Okay, well, look at that. Well, we’ll pull out the old Webster’s dictionary. We’ll see where the new Webster Myrtle is. It’s not. Then we’re it’s got to get in there because that’s, that’s a, that’s an I, I knew exactly where you’re trying to say by the way. Like brutally like like it’s.
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It’s cold.
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Okay. It’s called chilling. It’s like adjective bone chilling. So yo. Okay. Clearing out speaking of bone chilling, we got some we got some charts that are just ice cold, that I’ve got some good ones. Number one spot. Where is it? Is dry way. This is the spot market. So this is not features. This is just spot way on the exchange.
00;01;53;24 – 00;02;13;09
This is a weekly. And so you’ll see that over the last couple of weeks it’s been pretty stagnant. This is going back to 12 point. We going into our 2074 sense so far this week a whopping 7375 down a quarter from several weeks ago. That was when it, you know, tried to touch $0.80, couldn’t get there. And since then came off and we’ve just been trading sideways.
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But futures on the other hand, starting to build in quite the discount. What’s interesting about way you could theoretically downtick this bad boy quite a bit and still be technically in your price uptrend. Yeah. Thoughts? Questions?
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Comments I agree, it’s kind of like we were talking about. And we’ll take a little peek here in a second. Pigskin class three. But I think you had that same comment last week when we talked about class where you could break a good 70 $0.80 and you’re still in the uptrend. And right away is the same thing. My biggest question is, do we go down to where the rest of the world seems to be trading that which is $0.40, 40 to $0.50.
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So I just did a quick fib, as are, you know, my good friend Bob’s in would say he always needs to call cities on the floor. Give me a city of this going back. This this is way back when, $0.22. My gosh, can you even think, like, trade that low. Yeah. Going all the way back there. But that takes way just just a 33 but just a third of a retracement.
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Let’s move 57 and some change. And what’s interesting is that takes you back to a papa right where all this noise was super close. Not 100% there I guess. Depends on where you want. Hang on, I’m a little low. This isn’t cooperating. So we’re gonna do this instead. It’s super close, right? To where it really accelerated once it crossed $0.60.
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I mean, this thing just took off at a nearly $0.20 to it. That, to me, is like, you know, and when then when you look at some of the futures out forward may for example, 6375 offer with no bid, that to me is like okay. But futures are forecasting a significant break obviously. But like it’s it’s I think it’s super interesting that you have this all this congestion before it took off.
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It’s a point of, you know, potential support.
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I agree. I almost wonder if you kind of come back down and try to test $0.70 and then keep our our stride a little bit higher, because at this point, at $0.80, what’s going to bring us higher in the world market on dry way than $0.80? I don’t know.
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I don’t know. You know what then? People always say never say never.
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Never say never.
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It’s what said never say never. I agree with you though. Interesting little tidbit about ways and some of these powders too. I mean, Wolf, like it’s a question to me. It’s whether or not the SR. I call it an ass though. Other than this, you know, whether it starts to like it levels out like we saw it have that big jump from like 62 to 70 over the course of like three weeks, you know, that’s that’s once it’s once it settles itself, then it can be tough to move sometimes.
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So that could be something to be really mindful of. It is when is the actual PSR start to roll over on a week, like several weeks in a row, you need down ticks. But yeah, this is interesting. Like you’re you could test let’s just take this price that’s 71 and some change. Got 71.5 since not that much lower.
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It’s just another $0.02 lower in your testing this big uptrend here. Yeah I don’t know. So this one looks this feels heavy. The futures don’t look good out forward. You’ve got you know they’re beating them up. You’ve got offers for I think April traded limit today with no bid. So I don’t know. But this I feel like if this starts to roll over and breaks this first trend it turns into a quick trip to $0.60, assuming we start to see, you know, like the like I said, the PSR start to actually downtick.
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So once I think once you start getting this down takes it and I think it’s a quick like, yikes.
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Which the way the dry waves traded, you have a few a few weeks of, you know, propulsion higher. And then we kind of sit here and lag ourselves for two months, which we’re in that right now. And we did the same thing back at $0.60. Everyone said, what’s going to take us higher than $0.60? And we yeah, exactly.
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We finally got out of it. And 75 ago.
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I don’t know. Does it turn into I think I asked you that or Tuesday. I think I asked you today, like, do you remember the the movie where the dudes right in the the nuclear bomb with the he’s got the the cowboy hat.
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Which I didn’t, but okay.
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I forgot you’re still working on, episode one, season one of Game of Thrones. So you’re still working on that? It’s no spoiler like, I don’t.
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I don’t spoil it.
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I’m not going to. We won’t have any spoilers there. I can remember when there was a key character that like something happened to them and they actually put it in the news the next morning. I didn’t watch that episode of Sunday night. I saw the news the next morning. It’s like a headline. It’s like.
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How did you ever survive?
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How did I come on? Spoiler. So we won’t spoil it. All right. Next year. So keeping up with the theme so far spot. Jeez, what do you think?
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Spot cheese man? Boy did we.
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Weekend. We last week.
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Last week? Yes, we. That’s what makes me nervous. So if you go back to last week and all the volatility that we had in the spot cheese trading, we were up $0.09. I think at one day the very next day we were down seven and we just went all over the place last week. All five days this week we’re on Tuesday and dropped the block $0.11.
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And it wasn’t even like you tried offering it lower. Strategically. It was just like a let’s get after it a quarter of a cent at a time and bring this sucker down.
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So that it’s hard to see that little dash right there. That is the first print of the week. And it’s not doesn’t have a candle to it because it’s just simply like a gap tracked. Right. So it’s just gaps lower on the open. So if we sat here do nothing for the rest of the week, there would be no candle.
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It would just be this dash trap. Those are wicked, right? And you made a great observation. Kudos to you. We not only subtle below last week’s low, but we also subtle below the previous. We slow and we and really we opened below those two lows. So if you you know we you know I talk about all the time it’s like you get a you know, you get a formation or a chart or a bar or whatever you’re looking at.
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Do you get confirmation from the next bar? How does the next one open? Yeah. And in this case, yikes.
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Yeah.
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Like you get the confirmation and then some. So you, if I remember correctly, talked quite a bit about a big W that’s that could be forming here over the long term memory. Some stuff unfortunately.
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I was just going to bring that back up to you. And I talked about it about two episodes ago. And honestly, I still think it’s going to happen. I still think you try to bring cheese down to $1.60 with all the, you know, the geopolitical things that we have going on outside of our realm of, of charts here.
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I think it really lends itself to pushing the price down there.
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So 160 is right here.
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Because those are low. We’re at 163.
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So that would be what you’re talking about. You would you’re saying cheese gets below that low is that’s about 162 ish one 61.5
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At or below. Just because sometimes it over does it to the downside before we.
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Okay. So you know, you think we go down there trade and then we get a little popper.
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Yes. At that point what what are we going to be to the rest of the world as far as cheese prices?
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Got it. I’m not going to disagree with you. I think you you do that a while ago. I think you’re totally on point here. The only thing that bugs me. Here’s what bugs me about this already. We had this big break in futures today in class three. Obviously it seemed like it was more wage driven because if you look at the cheese board, not that much of a break today relative to cash right now.
00;09;16;28 – 00;09;37;27
Granted, there is a pretty hefty discounts that were already baked in. So really like April is current cash, may is a little bit of a premium. June is as you know and on as they build it in. And that’s huge premiums right. But really didn’t have that big of of day to day in the cheese futures. Well I mean to your point, they, they just destroyed them and block was down over a lot like they just hammered it.
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So like the futures market is actually building in a little bit of a carry for the first time in a while.
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And that brings me back to last week. What we saw happen is we got in here on Monday. And again, I could be wrong on some of these numbers, but I want to say on Monday we were down 9 or 8 one day, then down nine the next.
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Is like Dan said, same thing.
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Happens tomorrow. Like, what if we just exactly start bouncing around all of a sudden you’re moving $0.88 in one day?
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It’s possible certainly to say it’s not possible. It would be. I mean, crazy, we did it last week. I don’t know, like to me it’s like so we’re going to look at fib in a second. You have to let the futures be. I think you have to let them be somewhat of a guide here. Right. And so let’s take a quick fix here.
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The started pricing today. It is a first. Yeah. First day February I think you have to lift the futures again to your point. Be your guide and say like cash can go do whatever it wants here in the interim.
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Right.
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But this looks weak.
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It does. It just got a year long term trend. I think last week internally you were you were kind of banging the drum on a head and shoulders more than anybody. And if this is played out right, like it has played out as of today.
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Well I think fully playing it out would be I mean, you got to take it out. I mean this has the potential I feel like to go trade an 18.5 type, you know, price I mean because if you go back to the cheese chart, we just started pricing February. Right. You take this, you take this bad boy down and just take the 170.
00;11;05;02 – 00;11;21;17
And if you actually start chipping away at weigh on an ass, that’s all I remember. Six $0.01 and weigh $0.06 in class three. So I said nurse again, and I don’t ever let people know what. I’m not changing it. Like that said, like I’m open to change. I’m open to like, you know, improvement of a room for improvement.
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But when it comes to Nassau versus Southampton.
00;11;24;01 – 00;11;24;22
It’s next.
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Year. But yeah, going back to it, it’s this I mean, do you feel like you would you sell it here.
00;11;30;13 – 00;11;32;02
That’s that question when I sell here. Yes.
00;11;32;02 – 00;11;42;18
Yes. So today it’s not limit offer anymore. Right. Well there was a pool built in at limit. Yep. And now it’s limit down bid. So you’re a seller at 43.
00;11;42;19 – 00;11;56;12
You can sell it at limit down right now. And I think I’d still be a seller there because to your point you start breaking to 18 half. I would start liquidating some of those positions at that point because now you’re at the bottom end of that range.
00;11;56;14 – 00;12;09;04
Yes, I agree. And what’s interesting too, is that you have for the first time since, oh gosh, this is December, you have momentum that’s actually in the favor of the bears.
00;12;09;06 – 00;12;09;27
Yes.
00;12;09;29 – 00;12;30;24
For a long time, you know, you had this little dipsy do here and then it came right back out. But to get back down below zero. So remember momentum is basically, you know, looking at the previous x number of periods and saying where are we are where are we relative to that to that price and momentum. It what’s interesting about that one is that it can start to slow down even if prices are going up.
00;12;31;00 – 00;12;49;11
And so like here, it made it clear head and shoulders. If you look at I don’t you know what’s funny? I always just try to point at the screen with my finger dummy. Okay, let me use the actual tools. So like right here it’s it’s clearly failed to make a new high even though you had this big update.
00;12;49;11 – 00;13;06;28
It’s clearly a sign of weakness. It’s so, you know, also like you said, the momentum is starting to kind of point that way. The money flow index to that’s a measure of volume for like days that are, you know, red days more volume. Money is going to be a more sell side is coming into the market. It’s a good.
00;13;07;02 – 00;13;13;24
So as it’s trending lower, it means there’s more volume and more like money entering the market on down days and vice versa to. Yeah. And that’s to.
00;13;13;24 – 00;13;21;24
Hit on that. The commitment of traders came out last Friday and I know everyone in the company is that I’ve had my tinfoil hat on which is fine.
00;13;21;26 – 00;13;25;10
But they will love your tinfoil hat. Don’t get me wrong. All right.
00;13;25;13 – 00;13;44;06
Because they were net long more than 2000 positions in class three, we looked back and maybe we should bring up that chart up for next week. Every time they get net long, net short more than 2000 positions, we have a massive whipsaw the other way very quickly. You know, if they’re long 2000 contracts usually prices fall apart.
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And that is exactly what we saw today.
00;13;46;05 – 00;14;00;05
If you ever watch Karate Kid I did. Okay. So when everybody gets like loaded up on one side of the boat, Danielson, like, he just falls over. I mean, I think you just hit the nail on the head there. You start loading everybody up on the boat. On the one side, it’s easy to tip over.
00;14;00;10 – 00;14;01;11
Exactly.
00;14;01;14 – 00;14;17;22
Yeah, I agree. I mean, it’s so it’s it’s tough to want to be a seller on a limited day like this. Yeah. Just mentally, it’s just like now, like with. We just broke $0.75. My gosh. Like. And every day, you know not every day but every time we’ve had this big down text. Big uptick the next day.
00;14;17;24 – 00;14;43;24
Right. Big down day sir. 123 big updates. Not big. But like once you know, you have a retracement and then back down. So I think at the very least you have to be of the mentality to be selling rallies. If you don’t want to be a seller, limit down. I think you have to be thinking real hard about like I should be a seller of rallies, at least buyer of puts into a rally doing something because conversely, like, you know, ask the question, what’s going to take us back to $20 milk?
00;14;43;29 – 00;15;03;21
You’re talking about Feb cheese? Going back to like 186 187 to your point, not that like we saw how quickly it went back last week. I guess my only thing I’ll say about last week was, if you look back the days that we were lower in cash, the futures were more aggressively sold versus the days that we were higher.
00;15;03;21 – 00;15;22;26
I think it was like Monday we were down seven in the block. I forget what. And then, you know, Tuesday we were up like nine. Monday we’re down $0.65 in futures up front. Tuesday we’re up, you know, 45 intraday settled like 2830 higher. And it just seemed like there was going to sell side pressure. And so the market was taking that seemed like it was taking in more of an opportunity to sell.
00;15;22;26 – 00;15;24;02
So I think you have to be of that mindset.
00;15;24;08 – 00;15;39;00
I mean, where I’ve told people tomorrow is going to be the big tell if we come in here and all of a sudden they start bidding cheese back higher again and we are moving 88, $0.89 like we did that Wednesday. Then you okay? Now things are looking. Something else is going on outside of our our.
00;15;39;01 – 00;15;41;03
Realm or something afoot.
00;15;41;05 – 00;15;41;16
There’s something.
00;15;41;16 – 00;15;43;05
That’s what the game is. The game is afoot.
00;15;43;07 – 00;15;44;15
Some tomfoolery here.
00;15;44;15 – 00;15;45;11
Tomfoolery.
00;15;45;12 – 00;15;56;02
But I think next week we should bring up the CFTC, chart the commitment of traders and take a peek at what the. Because if you look at it, the highs and the lows have been pretty wicked the past couple months.
00;15;56;02 – 00;15;57;18
Here you put in your own request.
00;15;57;25 – 00;15;58;29
For the trio and.
00;15;58;29 – 00;15;59;26
For the trio.
00;15;59;28 – 00;16;01;16
For the patient on page. I apologize.
00;16;01;17 – 00;16;12;11
You also got to throw you got to throw Paige’s cat in there too. Every now and again the cat will, like, cut across the screen. So, like, what’s a mr. forceful. Great. Quadruple. Like what is a three or is it duo? A trio.
00;16;12;11 – 00;16;13;04
Four is a party.
00;16;13;11 – 00;16;20;19
Four is a party quadruple, not a quad. Pages stage is type in a quad. We knew it was like quad something. It’s not always.
00;16;20;19 – 00;16;22;08
Laughing at us. It’s a quad. All right.
00;16;22;09 – 00;16;25;13
Well we ever played a laugh about fair. All right. Stay warm I guess.
00;16;25;13 – 00;16;27;08
So make sure those water pipes don’t freeze.
00;16;27;08 – 00;16;28;10
That’s a really good tip.
00;16;28;10 – 00;16;29;06
Drip that water.
00;16;29;06 – 00;16;37;03
Drip, that thing. Get that thing dripping like you don’t want your pipes, person. And all night when it’s -30 degrees. Yeah, they just laughing. But it’s true. Like, yeah.
00;16;37;08 – 00;16;39;28
You wake up to a foot of water in your house. That’s going to be no bueno.
00;16;39;29 – 00;16;40;27
That’s no Gouda.
00;16;40;27 – 00;16;42;08
With no Gouda. Exactly.
00;16;42;15 – 00;16;43;06
All right.
00;16;43;08 – 00;17;03;14
All right. Well, we had no request this week, but if anyone would like to send us a request for next week besides our CFD chart that we’re going to peep at, please let us know. Give us a call, shoot us. Text. So in an email we will get it on there. We want to thank Paige for always being there behind the scenes, keeping us rock and roll and keeping us on task and making us look as best as we possibly can.
00;17;03;21 – 00;17;09;11
But until next week, that’s going to do it for our show. Have a great week and even better weekend, and we’ll see you next week. Everybody!
00;17;09;12 – 00;17;09;27
That is.
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