In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss April feeder cattle, the S&P 500, December corn and the dollar index.
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Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
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Hello everyone and.
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Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is Andy. It is Tuesday, March 11th, just about 4:00 eastern time in the afternoon. Well, 3:45, your 2:45. Your time.
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I love how you threw in there. Hi by the way. Well I love how you threw in there in the afternoon. Well like we’re doing this at 4:00 in the morning.
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I can tell you a long story. Make it short, but it take too much time about. I’ve learned to be very specific with my my times noted. That’s why.
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And we just had daylight savings time. But we did about that.
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We did? Yep.
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But did you spring forward like had that feel for you.
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Sprung forward last spring? That’s okay. We’re we’re back on track. The sunshine is good.
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But what about your what about your shoveling business?
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Don’t you guys going snowball going man.
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Snow’s all gone.
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I have to get a lawnmower here in a second.
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Here? Yeah. You’re just, like, full of copper. I mean, it’s just glass. Half full moon glass. It’s on your desk. It’s helpful.
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It is.
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Every time.
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Every time you got it. You got to be optimistic.
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You do. You do. You really do. All right, let’s talk about some half full stuff here for a second, shall we?
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For charts. Rapid fire today, I think.
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Rapid fire. Two requests and we had some follow up from last week too.
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Yeah.
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So April feeders, you. Oh my goodness. Come on. Is it a new hangout place?
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Yeah, I guess we got a new place.
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So 277 spot nine two. I mean, this is not a new high. Close. That is a new high close.
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Correct. I’m sorry, I misspoke.
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You know what?
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We traded in the new high as we have closer.
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There you go. So traded in the new highs. Couldn’t close there. Is it a double top I don’t know. Every time people sell this market it just bites a real hard it does.
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So in the last two times people have sold it they said that exact same thing to me. If you go back where we had that first high, in January and of Jan double top, right. And they said you got to sell it, which at that point you were correct for a little bit of time.
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Just a wee bit of time.
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Just a wee bit. You get to the very the same day, different month of 27th of February, double top. Somebody said again, you got to sell it. You were right for two days. And now I feel like people are going to say the same thing. Hey, we got a double top. But now if you’re a seller of this, if you’ve sold those those previous two places, I think you got to be a little bit leery of selling this again.
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Oh yeah.
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I would imagine so. Right. Especially since you have here’s the money flow index telling you it’s not a sale. Right? Right. Momentum clearly to the upside not overbought markets not overbought. Correct. So according to this at least and it really hasn’t violated this. This is a very long term uptrend right. This goes back to early September Labor Day right.
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We’re talking Labor Day right. Nice healthy steady uptrend right. Never really got too far ahead of itself. And so you have a lot of room to break and still be in an uptrend. So this is a warning obviously right. You’ve got a double top. You’re failing to put in a new high. That is something to be mindful of.
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If you did want to sell it you certainly have an an area where you know you’re wrong, right? I mean, depends on how tight of a stop you’d want to put in. You could certainly, you know, bump it up just a smidge and say, like anything over two 80.5, I’d be done. Right. But you certainly have like a tight area where you can say, like the risk reward, even if you’re looking to be short term, be short for the short term, right.
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You’re risking is something. Just call it from 270, which is today’s close. Let’s say you’re able to get it sold it unchanged tomorrow right on the open 277 and some change. Right. And so you’re risking up to two 80.5 roughly. But your reward potential is somewhere down in the here 270. So it’s like a, you know, 2 to 1 or as much as a 3 to 1 shot.
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This is great odds.
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They are great. Right.
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Let’s get out. So let me get this.
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Would you look at this chart right here. Would you want to sell. Would you want to sell on the open.
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No okay I would I would certainly want to see how it opens first. Is it going to open lower. Because this I mean when you think about it, yes it is forming a double top. But it’s also like look at this candle. Look at just just look at the last three candles. All right. Let’s see if we can blow this bad boy up.
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Page is going to kill me because I keep, like, bouncing around so much. But but but but but but look at these three candles right here. Big green candle. And this is the best that they’re able to do. So this rally three nearly four bucks down a little over just under a quarter down to just under another quarter.
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You haven’t even retraced a half the dollar after rally. Nearly four. Right. That’s not a good indication that like the bears are taking control. Right. So yeah, I like I said, if you want if you’re looking for a spot to be short, you know, you’ve got a double top side basically a really close. You’ve got a tight stop.
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You can be in there. I’m not going to sell it. I certainly would want to see how it opens tomorrow morning. I think if you really wanted to find something that was a little bit better indicator, I probably want to wait to sell below that low. Obviously the risk reward, you know, goes back down to that kind of like 1 to 1 or even 2 to 1 type deal, right?
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But you got much better confirmation at that point. See how it works here. Yeah.
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So you start getting below 270 maybe. But again go back to like what happened over the previous two double tops is you were right for a week maybe. And then we started rallying ourselves back up. And then it’s like you you better be ready to get out of that.
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Yeah, this is a good one. This will be. You probably want to take a peek at this one next week or whenever you’re out this week. Right.
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I want next week.
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Yeah. So maybe we’ll see. You know, maybe we can sneak. Yeah. Who knows what was the mystery we were check. Well, no, they’ll give you a little trust in there. So S&P 500 would been in the news quite a bit I believe we talked about wanting to sell this I can’t remember you didn’t knows it’s in the story.
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I do because we were I think last time we talked about on this we were at 5900. And there was talk of if you got below 5800, then it would definitely be a sale because we’d bumped up against that support. I mean, going back into November. All right. You called this, you called the sighting two, three weeks ago.
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Well, what’s interesting about this one is it.
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Shows your retirement account. Do you sell the S&P?
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I think everybody’s I don’t think anybody wants to look at their retirement account.
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But you got the S&P. You only person in the world I got short of the S&P.
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It doesn’t look like it because of that. It sure doesn’t look like it. If you look at the way this market’s traded I don’t know if you’ve noticed but it’s been going down.
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And you retire in four days because you sold.
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Super interesting. Now you’ve got again 6200 is basically the number of the market could get through not once twice. But I mean after that, I mean this is kind of what we looked at with April feeders, except you actually had the break of the long term trend.
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And so once it broke through here, you know, obviously there’s been a significant amount of uncertainty around tariffs, monetary policy, etc.. And so that’s and if you go back and look to I mean, my gosh, like, yeah, don’t look at your the day to day activity or your retirement. But I mean look at this has just been phenomenal.
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Yeah. Right. I mean it’s just strong like bull. This is a monthly. So yeah to see some sort of retracement I think people have been kind of thinking about this for a long time. Healthy so.
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Healthy pullback.
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Markets retrace. So yeah I don’t know like to me it’s like where does this market potentially go. This is obviously a big area right here 5500. Basically that feels like the next stop. You get through that and then it’s yeah you don’t really have anything until call it like 5300. If you’re able to do that you talk about knocking 700 points.
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No one that it would be close to 850 points off the spool in a short amount of time. I mean, that’s that’s just massive. So, to me, it’s like I said, I think you get a good test and 5500 and I think you got to look for like, I mean, what’s an example of a candle you do they want to be looking for something.
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Let’s talk about Tom petty wrote freefall.
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Freefall.
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It’s kind of what it looks like.
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Freeze something like this on a longer term, like a weekly series that you see this three bar pattern right here. Big Dow big, you know, big three weeks worth of down days followed with one big hammer and then opens higher that I think if you’re looking for a spot to try to own it. Like you know, what is Buffett’s fear and greed.
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You know, you know, you want to buy it. When people are fearful and greedy, what is. Yeah, greedy or something like that. It’s he sent another pile of cash. So that’s when I see that. But yeah, I mean like to me technically, like I said, when do we see this big hammer? When do you go trade 5500 on a month?
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On a weekly or monthly, whatever that is in subtle 56, 50 or something like that?
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Yeah. The momentum chart right there is wrong.
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We’re just looking at the week something this this. Yeah the weekly it looks bad. You still have room to go in terms of being up until your quote oversold. Like I said I think you got to go. I think you got to go test 5500. So we shall see. So you’re saying you’re telling people to look at their retirement accounts?
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I beg to differ. Let’s just.
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Look at your retirement.
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Account, you know. Don’t. It’s not. What am I doing anyways anyways. All right, next one. This one came a request. Whole these corn came at request. Christmas corn from Jim Jimbo Matthews, our.
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Good friend Jimbo and.
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He wanted to take a peek. Your man. So I don’t know. What do you think your boss.
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Man. So obviously we had a pretty big selloff getting down to close to four, doing it for 50.
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To settle there. We certainly did get a settled. Yeah for 46 and some change both of these days before pop Perk and Rebecca.
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It really feels like an I know we got a wheezy report today that wasn’t feeding the bulls. I think, as some of our colleagues had put it, if you were bullish corn, that report definitely did not help your case in any means. I look at all the wicks that we’ve had going back in the last week in this market has just not really picked a direction.
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It’s kind of almost gone a little bit sideways. I would expect we can I’ve got mine on the 50 day moving average. Weren’t able to break above their today. I think this is a bearish chart of corn. I think it’s really starting to kind of roll over right here after we just had that massive break a little bit of retracement.
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Let’s see what these reports come out as. Didn’t come out bullish by any means. And I was like okay well it’s time to maybe turn corn over to the downside again.
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Yeah. Well stop to argue against that. Right. This is a 200 day dip below there for a hot second game right back I to me I wonder if he did one of these numbers.
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And like that and then and see how it is making one. Let’s see how it acts. Around my 450 seems to be this big number. I imagine it’s like $20 milk or something. Yeah. If you look at it like it’s 40 now. 451 or 50. So that’s my thought. Like it seems like you could get a little popper here.
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You’ve got, you know, I mean, look at that. You bounced right off of it. Right. But you still have some room to move higher and still technically the weak, you know, put in a lower high. I always have a like, say that slowly lower.
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Lower.
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High lower I oh so yeah that’s my thought on big M lower high coming in hot. Probably sell rallies. We’ll see. But yeah other than that I don’t I don’t really know the fundamentals of Christmas corn. You want to hit you know want to talk to Jimbo about that.
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Check out the gimbal back on here. I think the people gotta.
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Get you more people. You gotta give the people what they want. They want some Jimbo.
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Wonder, Jimbo rag polo. Always. Every day. Loving life.
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Loving them. Yeah. Just just love them better. Say above what are you going to do.
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Nonpublic at least.
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Oh yeah I think we can, we can do tech doc after dark as you go. All right. So yeah. Looking for the am looking for more shout outs etc.. We have like I said we’re in the hot seat right now. We’re trying to do this quickly because we have four charts to look at. We want to do one last take a little peek at courtesy of Whiskey Phil.
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He didn’t ask for us to look at this again. Yeah for this last week putting him back in the hot seat because this thing is just been rocking. This is a weekly, is it the dollar?
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It is, it is. And I think again, we talked about this I think you’d call that bringing a retracement back to 100 was probably on the docket. And it looks like as far as this chart is going right now, going to hit that sooner rather than later.
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Yeah. This this looks weak. This is a daily. So let’s go. Let’s go take a break. This is the weekly that we looked at last time. Didn’t change anything. And I think, yeah, you and I talked about getting back into this consolidation breaking back breaking back through that. What was once resistance breaking back through that, you know, I think facilitates a trip back down and testing this low of 100 and keeping it at least in this consolidation.
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But if you look at the dailies, if you look at the daily that looks weak.
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It has. Yep.
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You got one, two, three big bars. You took this like it’s like this weird like little stair step down kind of thing. But like not this is not friendly. Now right here, this attempt to get any sort of retracement from this gigantic move not friendly. And then. Okay. And then the close below all this noise, you probably get another move like this.
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Yeah. I would not be surprised if you got something similar to this very soon.
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I was just going to say that. So if you look at the rally that we had from 100 up to 103, it was it looks almost identical, like we moved within a week, maybe a week and a half that fast. And if we get down to 103, I think you start accelerating it real quick.
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Yeah. This this to me looks so nasty when you have these three big downers and all they could do is this. And then you close below what people looked at this day and are like, now you get a sell off. That’s a rally to sell.
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Yeah.
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So yeah I look at this chart and I say like just getting back to the weekly on its back in the table. What does that mean for dairy. Lower the dollar is better for exports right. The way that.
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Works Brian Rice on us. Yeah.
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Carry the one. Right. Think square.
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Root of.
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Square root of Gary the one we’re doing homework I’m doing first grade homework yesterday. And it’s like how many frogs jumped off the lily pad and then like two jumped off. And then it’s like there’s ten frogs on a lily pad. Two jump off and one skirts back on. How many frogs are on a lily pad? And the square root of this great one.
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Like the dollar.
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Kind of like the dollar. We’ll see. Well, how many frogs are going to get back in the lily bed? Well, I know we’re running low on time, so see you back in 100 in the USD. And then see if we can get some exports going for cheese. We’re certainly low enough now.
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The dollar should help if we get down there.
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Far enough shed, but.
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All right. Well, those are four great rapid shorts. Appreciate your your insights on that. Even though he didn’t really technically email in appreciate was Phil giving us the lay up to the dollar again obviously big shout out to Jimbo giving us a little these Christmas corn to look at.
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Christmas.
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Christmas.
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Corn Christmas corn.
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Christmas corn. Love Christmas card. He was very.
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Busy. Doesn’t like Christmas. It was like the holiday season. Who doesn’t like the holidays?
00;14;46;09 – 00;15;11;00
Well everyone, we appreciate you tuning in watching. If you haven’t subscribed already, please subscribe. Give us a like follow thumbs up. We’re probably going to be off next week. We had a little bit of traveling come on. So we might do another on location. We’ll find out. We’ll see what’s going what’s going down. But if we’re not back next week, we will be back the following to bring you all the charts that you love and enjoy and want to see through our eyes.
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Love them.
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With that. Have a great rest of the week and even better weekend. We’ll see you next time.
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See you!
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