In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss CME Weekly Cheese, Dec Corn and Dec Fat Cattle.

Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.

Charts sourced from Ever.Ag Platform.

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00;00;00;17 – 00;00;08;24
VOICEOVER
Futures trading involves risk and it’s not suitable for all investors. Content provided in the segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;08;27 – 00;00;19;21
CODY
Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody. He is Andy. Together we make up the Tech Talk Team and today we’ve got some pretty interesting charts coming your way that we actually looked at last week.

00;00;19;28 – 00;00;32;27
ANDY
We did a little last week, but I got to tell you something right now. This is a really special day. If the camera were to pan this way, Paige would be in the shot. I’m sitting next to Paige in the office, and it doesn’t get any better than this.

00;00;33;02 – 00;00;43;12
CODY
It doesn’t get any better. Paige’s here, live and in person. Whoa, whoa, whoa. The person who makes everything it Ever.Ag run smoothly is here.

00;00;43;12 – 00;00;52;24
ANDY
It’s like the, I mean, man behind the curtain. Woman Behind the curtain. The curtain. Like, you and I are the curtain. This is where it’s at right here.

00;00;52;25 – 00;00;53;11
CODY
That’s where all the action happens.

00;00;53;12 – 00;01;04;06
ANDY
Very fortunate here. So, yeah, I mean, hey, you’re in Michigan right now. Sorry, dude. Did I tell you to drive here? But are you going to be able to see anything.

00;01;04;08 – 00;01;06;08
CODY
Little smoggy out there for everybody right out.

00;01;06;08 – 00;01;12;18
ANDY
Very smoggy out there! What did you say earlier? Well, I went outside yesterday and you went like this and it, like, started a fire because of all the ash in your hand.

00;01;12;19 – 00;01;16;23
CODY
You could see a little debris in between the palms yesterday. You might even today.

00;01;16;25 – 00;01;25;13
ANDY
We have- Chicago, they put out a notice that we have the worst air quality in the world yesterday or something like that. In the world! It’s crazy.

00;01;25;16 – 00;01;28;02
CODY
Well, you’re going to have that on those big jobs.

00;01;28;03 – 00;01;29;08
ANDY
What are you going to do.

00;01;29;11 – 00;01;30;07
CODY
What are you going to do?

00;01;30;10 – 00;01;32;05
ANDY
Should we talk about charts instead of air?

00;01;32;05 – 00;01;33;20
CODY
I guess so. First one-

00;01;33;20 – 00;01;35;06
ANDY
Paige, should we talk about charts instead of air? Yeah, Paige nodded.

00;01;35;06 – 00;01;35;24
PAIGE
Yeah!

00;01;33;20 – 00;01;35;06
ANDY
Ope! There we go, yup. Start time.

00;01;38;09 – 00;01;39;22
CODY
CME Weekly Cheese.

00;01;39;28 – 00;01;40;12
ANDY
Yikes. What do you think here?

00;01;40;17 – 00;01;42;20
CODY
We have this one, we had this last week.

00;01;42;23 – 00;01;45;23
ANDY
We did? Well, okay. What do you think? What do you think?

00;01;45;25 – 00;01;52;16
CODY
We did. Well, we at $1.40 yesterday. We’re at $1.35 today. You have that line drawn at about $1.30, looks like.

00;01;52;19 – 00;01;54;29
ANDY
The top. So that you’re talking about this like little candle right here?

00;01;54;29 – 00;01;57;17
CODY
This one right here, the one that you just moved the bottom line there.

00;01;57;20 – 00;02;01;14
ANDY
Yea, so I’m trying to find the high of that, right. That’s where you’d want to have it drawn.

00;02;01;16 – 00;02;02;05
CODY
Yep.

00;02;02;05 – 00;02;04;26
ANDY
That’s about 1.29 ish. Yeah, I got 1.29.

00;02;04;26 – 00;02;07;06
CODY
That looks like a quick trip to that.

00;02;07;06 – 00;02;10;11
ANDY
Looks like it’s going to be another $0.06 lower, basically. Right. For you to go and fill that gap.

00;02;10;14 – 00;02;14;11
CODY
I mean, I think- what did we do yesterday, $0.05?

00;02;14;11 – 00;02;36;21
ANDY
About that, yeah. Yeah. No it’s, it is what it is and what’s interesting is that futures, you know, like they continue to maintain like this big premium, right, out forward. And so futures, let’s just take a quick peek here. So, OCT-DEC on average about $1.85. So, you know futures are saying the cash markets more like right here or should be about right around here.

00;02;36;23 – 00;02;37;05
CODY
Right.

00;02;37;07 – 00;02;40;14
ANDY
Right. Like a lot of time between now and the fourth quarter, obviously, right.

00;02;40;16 – 00;02;51;22
ANDY
I mean, it is what it is. But to your point, you’ve got- this gap here is the lowest assuming we close here, right. So, this is a week. Right. But they say today, Wednesday? We usually do this on Thursday.

00;02;51;22 – 00;02;54;01
CODY
Correct, Wednesday. A day earlier.

00;02;54;04 – 00;03;03;24
ANDY
Hump day, all right. Fair enough. So, yeah, no, I mean, if we get a close here this’ll be obviously pretty weak, but then you want to be super mindful of this little guy right there too, we created a gap to start this candle out.

00;03;04;01 – 00;03;08;17
CODY
Or you could look at the other side and say, ‘Hey, we have another gap at $1.20 cheese right below that’.

00;03;08;19 – 00;03;26;11
ANDY
Oof, that hurts, right? You’re not wrong. I mean, this is that wicked move we had back in COVID, right. Where every restaurant in the country shut down and then the US government paid $3 a pound for cheese promptly after that. So, I mean, if we get close here, especially even if we just sat here for the rest of the week, this would be a very weak candle.

00;03;26;13 – 00;03;29;23
ANDY
And you’re right, I think this gap gets filled or, you know, you got to try.

00;03;29;25 – 00;03;30;11
CODY
Yeah.

00;03;30;14 – 00;03;50;12
ANDY
Fundamentally, it doesn’t seem like there’s much- it seems like it’s a big demand equation. Or demand function is the real issue here. And we have it in how much volume we continue to trade on the CME. So I guess until that changes. Yeah, I mean you’re just you’re susceptible to more weakness here and especially in the futures we already looked at how big some of these premiums are.

00;03;50;14 – 00;03;59;21
ANDY
So, there’s a big difference between where the spot is and where the futures are. So. But you’re saying gap, gap; there’s a lot of gaps here.

00;03;59;24 – 00;04;04;18
CODY
For sure. There is another one down there, $1.10 that I didn’t want to mention that one. But you pointed out.

00;04;04;18 – 00;04;05;09
ANDY
Yea I mean, you love gaps though.

00;04;05;09 – 00;04;07;00
CODY
Absolutely!

00;04;07;07 – 00;04;28;10
ANDY
I guess something to be mindful of is how, again, there was a significant government presence here that forced this v bottom. But if you look at our price relative to the rest of the world, if we keep declining in the rest of the world is kind of hold steady between like- what is it- $1.75-$1.90, then where you’re at, you got to think we’re going to see some sort of like v bottom type activity.

00;04;28;12 – 00;04;45;26
ANDY
I think you got to be really careful of that because especially we’ve noticed what cold storage continues to decline year over year. So should we see any sort of like big pick up in demand because of super low prices? It may be a little bit harder to be able to supply that cheese if there isn’t enough cheese sitting around in cold storage.

00;04;45;26 – 00;04;54;24
ANDY
So we’ll see. I mean, right here, right now, we get a close here that’s weak. It looks like it wants to go try to fill this gap. So I don’t know any closing thoughts for the chatter.

00;04;54;26 – 00;05;00;28
CODY
Looking pretty weak, like you said. I mean, it just it looks like those gaps want to be filled pronto.

00;05;01;00 – 00;05;06;06
ANDY
Pronto, says Cody. Speaking of pronto, take a look at your favorite.

00;05;06;08 – 00;05;11;28
CODY
Bum, Bum, Bum; DEC corn! Talk about a wicked move, oof.

00;05;11;28 – 00;05;13;16
ANDY
The inverted v-bottom. What you want to call it? Is it like, a house?

00;05;13;19 – 00;05;17;17
CODY
Yeah, I was going to say a wicked steeple, but I mean.

00;05;17;22 – 00;05;24;08
ANDY
The Wicked Steeple. I wonder if we could, like, coin that and make it, like, you know, put it in, like, a charting software. The wicked steeple formation.

00;05;24;11 – 00;05;29;21
CODY
I think, didn’t last week when we talked about this where we on our way up just above $6 as I’m looking back.

00;05;29;21 – 00;05;32;20
ANDY
Correctly don’t remember the last time we looked at it but for sure.

00;05;32;23 – 00;05;33;22
CODY
I mean, look at the movement of this thing!

00;05;33;27 – 00;05;53;02
ANDY
Yeah. What’s interesting is that this is- so, this is today. What time is it, 9:45 Wednesday central? So, there’s still obviously few hours left in the trade but you’ve broken this upward trend. That was, kind of chugging along here. What’s interesting too is that you had a clear overbought territory down here, cross back below it.

00;05;53;02 – 00;06;12;01
ANDY
That’s a bearish indicator, secondary, right? And it’s really maintaining that. And so a lot of times you can actually see like trends within these types of indicators, right? So this was like a clear uptrend between middle of May and the June on this. But that has been broken. So, it suggests that it wants to go into this oversold territory, which would be the blue line.

00;06;12;08 – 00;06;21;12
ANDY
And then you also have momentum that’s starting to get back down below or getting approaching zero that crosses zero in the negative territory. That’s also another bearish secondary indicator.

00;06;21;14 – 00;06;40;06
CODY
As you said, it’s what is it? 9:45 Central Time. We’ve gone through the 200-day, 100-day, 20-day and bounced off the 50-day moving average, which I can look in. Looks like that’s your orange line right there. That’s happened in the past two trading sessions when it’s only 9:45 Central Time.

00;06;40;08 – 00;06;46;07
ANDY
Yes sir. It looks weak. Well, you get a close here, right? So close three opens lower tomorrow or I guess tonight. Right. But then.

00;06;46;10 – 00;07;01;00
CODY
Again, we’re going to mention that there is a gap there at 533. Right. So if it goes down there, hit that gap close below the gap and looks like possibly a quick trip down to $5 again, is where we were, what, about a month ago?

00;07;01;00 – 00;07;04;00
ANDY
Yea, that’s about right. Less than that. You’re like gap-tastic today.

00;07;04;02 – 00;07;06;05
CODY
Well, there’s a lot of gaps on these charts. That’s a lot.

00;07;06;06 – 00;07;07;20
ANDY
That’s a lot of volatility flying around here.

00;07;07;20 – 00;07;13;02
CODY
Oh yeah, you want to talk about volatility market. This one has been a wicked one the past month.

00;07;13;05 – 00;07;30;15
ANDY
Wicked, wicked. Gap-tastic though. That could be a title at some point. I don’t know if it’s going to be today’s title, but I’m going to have to write that- hang on, Paige let me write that down. How would you spell that- gap, g a p t a s t i c. Did I tell you, Paige, I won a spelling bee when I was a kid?

00;07;30;15 – 00;07;30;20
PAIGE
No, really?

00;07;30;22 – 00;07;39;06
ANDY
Yeah. So, I’m a speller. All right. So, you think we’re going to fill that gap, maybe get down below five bucks and see where- see what happens.

00;07;39;09 – 00;07;43;10
CODY
I do. I was gonna say, what do you- what would you do with this chart looking at it.

00;07;43;13 – 00;07;57;14
ANDY
Um, shoot. That’s a tough one, right? I mean it’s- I think you at this point of view had no position on you have to wait and see how this thing closes. You get a close below this line and then open lower tomorrow, I think you have to sell it and then just be mindful of how it trades at that gap you pointed out. It’s not that far away.

00;07;57;16 – 00;08;11;05
ANDY
So, but still, like there could be $0.10-$0.15 in it. Right. But yeah, nothat would be that would be a pretty weak close plus open lower if we did that right. I’ll tell you what’s not going lower.

00;08;11;07 – 00;08;11;25
CODY
DEC fats.

00;08;12;01 – 00;08;40;17
ANDY
Bull. Flag. Flats. Yikes! So, I think it was Cole that pointed this one out internally. I was talking about you had this potential ‘M’. But then as soon as you had- let’s just blow this up a little bit, shall we? As soon as you had this right there. Right? So, you had multiple bounces and then it just a clear rejection of trying to get through because Bull Flags are typically like descending triangles that break out.

00;08;40;24 – 00;09;00;07
ANDY
Right. And so you had a clear attempt to break out to the downside and then rejected. Right. That was just I mean, that was it right there. And then since then, you have managed to break out of this and create this flag type formation. And typically, the way you, like, from a measurement standpoint, we didn’t touch this from last time we looked at it.

00;09;00;09 – 00;09;10;29
ANDY
So from a measurement standpoint, you would just simply take where it broke out from to the top and then lay it back on top where it broke out from the next time. Does that makes sense?

00;09;10;29 – 00;09;15;29
CODY
You’re taking it from, If I’m looking at it correctly, $1- well, what are we at. $170-$180?

00;09;15;29 – 00;09;20;18
ANDY
You would start. We’re like trying to pick a point where you feel like it broke out from right.

00;09;20;20 – 00;09;21;19
CODY
Okay, yeah okay.

00;09;21;21 – 00;09;42;14
ANDY
And then you take that and measure it to the top of the move, which in this case, let’s get precise here, shall we? It’s that high right there. So $182.85. So from $173, basically, it’s ten bucks, $172.82 to $182.85, right? So, you just add basically $10, if I’m quoting that correctly, to where it breaks out from right around here.

00;09;42;14 – 00;09;44;13
ANDY
So it’s about 188.5.

00;09;44;16 – 00;09;44;22
CODY
Right, OK.

00;09;44;28 – 00;09;53;14
ANDY
That’s the distance of the flagpoles where you want to measure it, the next move to. So, yeah, Cole internally asked about it, crushing it. Maybe we should have him as a Guest.

00;09;53;14 – 00;09;56;20
CODY
I think so! I think so.

00;09;56;22 – 00;09;57;09
ANDY
I wonder what, like. So,

00;09;57;09 – 00;09;58;14
CODY
Yes?

00;09;58;16 – 00;10;00;19
ANDY
Is the hammer buying this by the way. What’s going on?

00;10;00;22 – 00;10;05;22
CODY
Oh, absolutely. Sorry, I forgot about this. The hammer hasn’t had much to buy lately!

00;10;06;28 – 00;10;11;17
ANDY
The Hammer’s like, flying around.

00;10;06;28 – 00;10;11;17
CODY
Sorry, we haven’t had much to buy lately. Ladies and gentlemen; DEC fat cattle is definitely a buy!

00;10;11;17 – 00;10;12;14
ANDY
Well, all right. On that note.

00;10;12;14 – 00;10;19;13
CODY
Wait a secong. I think I just like, cracked my desk. Whoops, okay! It’s all right.

00;10;19;13 – 00;10;21;06
ANDY
Well what are you going to do. Get another one!

00;10;21;09 – 00;10;21;20
CODY
Alright, well.

00;10;21;26 – 00;10;24;24
ANDY
Get that fat cattle and then go buy a desk.

00;10;24;27 – 00;10;37;04
CODY
I’m gonna have too here pretty soon. Awesome. All right, everybody. Well, that’s going to do it for another episode of Tech Talk with myself, Andy, and the always amazing Paige Driscoll who is in office!

00;10;37;04 – 00;10;37;20
ANDY
In office.

00;10;37;24 – 00;10;54;16
CODY
In office. And if any one of you has not yet, please subscribe to our YouTube channel. Give us a thumbs up. Give us a like. Be a friend; Tell a friend about the show, have them jump on here. Shoot us some emails with different charts that you want us to look at and we will be happy to look at them in the future.

00;10;54;16 – 00;11;02;21
CODY
But until that, everyone had a great weekend, a great rest of the week, a happy 4th of July. We will see you after the holidays.

00;11;02;21 – 00;11;04;16
ANDY
What are you doing 4th of July, go.

00;11;04;18 – 00;11;07;07
CODY
If it’s not smoking outside? Probably going to my neighbors to grill.

00;11;07;14 – 00;11;08;24
ANDY
But you’re not going to be the one that grills.

00;11;08;24 – 00;11;10;24
CODY
I’m not going to grill because I set my house on fire last time.

00;11;10;24 – 00;11;15;05
ANDY
That’s right. You’re going to get back on that horse and set it on fire again.

00;11;15;05 – 00;11;16;07
CODY
Let’s set it on fire, boys.

00;11;16;08 – 00;11;23;29
ANDY
Just, this is the- I was thinking about that the other day. I’m like, you don’t have to get briquettes or anything like that. We can get you a pellet grill and.

00;11;24;02 – 00;11;27;04
CODY
I’m a walking, talking fire hazard. So no.

00;11;27;06 – 00;11;42;19
ANDY
Okay, okay. You’ll be a baker someday or something like that. Like baked goods. Do you do like pie?

00;11;27;06 – 00;11;30;09
PAIGE
Yeah!

00;11;31;06 – 00;11;42;19
ANDY
Paige likes pie, there you go. Done.

00;11;42;22 – 00;11;50;12
CODY
Awesome. All right, everybody, thanks for watching this week. If you’ve tuned in this long, you probably hate it. So.

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