Tech Talk – Better Luck Next Time! – August 2, 2023

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VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and it’s not suitable for all. Investor contact provided in the statement is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

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CODY
Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody. This is Andy. It is August 2nd, 2023, just about 3 p.m. in the Central Time Zone three.

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ANDY
What’s what about your time zone?

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CODY
Well, that’s I always have to look. If you catch me looking down, I have to do the mathematics. So it’s about 4:00 Central time.

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ANDY
Gary the one mine.

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CODY
I want to make sure I’m not like 7:00 or something and look at.

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ANDY
The time deals like where it has like all the different, like clocks of all the different like London time, like Chicago time, Grand Rapids time.

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CODY
It’s on my computer, right? I have to look down so I don’t look like a student when I say it.

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ANDY
So plenty of the things to look like Scrooge about.

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CODY
Don’t worry. That’s very true.

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ANDY
Very true.

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CODY
We we had to request it.

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ANDY
But I was going to say, you just took the words right out of my mouth. We got a couple requests coming in hot to require two out of the three charts today came at request. Pretty sure. What’s the third one? She wants to talk about butter.

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CODY
That’s true. Oh, I’ll give it away. Too soon.

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ANDY
Way too soon. Want more? When are we going to talk about here?

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CODY
So let’s go.

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ANDY
Let’s go. All right. This came at request from Sandy. I Etherium.

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CODY
We never looked at Etherium.

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ANDY
I don’t even know what a theory missed you.

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CODY
You know, we’re going to look at charts.

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ANDY
So first of all, I have to admit, this is the first time I’ve ever looked at in a theory of chart. Initial thoughts is doesn’t look like it’s going anywhere.

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CODY
But very rangebound.

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ANDY
Yeah, I mean, yeah, you look at like the RSI and it’s like Dead center and it’s been pretty flat too, right? So I guess the only thing that’s a little bit kind of like is so what is this? This is the 20 day and the 50 day. So it’s this is August Etherium, by the way. So this is a 20 day and 50 day.

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ANDY
It’s like it’s over, you know, we’re close below the 20 day. It’s kind of close below the 50 day, too. So and it’s done that a few times here, at least a 50 day, Right? So last couple of candles. I mean, if if I’m not mistaken. And so I’m not mistaken. By the way, what’s got some stuff that you like?

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ANDY
What do these.

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CODY
A couple little gaps there? Oh.

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ANDY
I mean, shoot it. Maybe if you. So this looks like. Yeah, I mean, this looks like a new low, close to shore.

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CODY
Does I just blew out to a weekly to try to get a little bit more perspective. I would do that right.

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ANDY
So new low close closes the new low close for like for all pretty much all of July that even though I know it’s you know first second day but.

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CODY
New low close for August for sure.

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ANDY
And for half of June so it yeah I mean this looks like you open lower tomorrow you fill this gap and then you know this gap is going to comes in jeopardy again. It looks like it’s sideways to lower. I don’t know anything about it. They’re like I said, I don’t even know what it really means to you.

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CODY
I can honestly say that I do not. I just blew it up on a weekly just to see if we can get a little more perspective on it. And honestly, it’s just about as rangebound there going back to July of 20 to the Daily.

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ANDY
All right.

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CODY
So it looks.

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ANDY
Range bound to slightly lower. I think if you get on open lower tomorrow, you’re in jeopardy of, you know, closing this gap that does that probably is range bound again for a little while. But I mean, it doesn’t look like there’s anything to excited about this chart. Sorry San Diego.

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CODY
It’s all right if you seller of Ethereum.

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ANDY
I guess a little.

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CODY
Gross Phillips.

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ANDY
Maybe sure I I guess on the flip side do is it like where are you wrong if you’re selling it It clearly didn’t like 1900s. Right right. So that was a point of resistance. Once it got below that, it held it really well. So closing over that price is an indication that you’d be wrong. So probably liquidate, maybe even flipping it long.

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ANDY
Who knows, maybe they could buy some theory, um, at some point.

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CODY
Pretty good risk reward here. And Ethereum, the Etherium.

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ANDY
Ethereum.

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CODY
Etherium, you.

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ANDY
Know, sounds like like matrix type type stuff. So who knows? All right, next one came EverQuest, which you can’t CP3.

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CODY
JP three.

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ANDY
KP three. This is September Lumber.

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CODY
Lumber, lumber, lumber. Going to buy a house now or build a house? Now’s the time to do it. Yeah.

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ANDY
I mean, the only thing that it’s first of all, this like this little guy, right? This little formation in here this week, it looks like it wants to take a shot at getting below here. What prices that they look like. It’s the only thing that kind of bugs me about getting short from this point is the fact that on the our site crossed into oversold territory.

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CODY
Right.

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ANDY
So it looks like it wants to try to you know, it looks like it wants to at least test this support. So I think you need more if you’re going to sell it. I think you need more confirmation to sell it from here. I think there’s already been a pretty substantial move and nobody at short here. Plus, like I said, the RSI is telling you that it’s oversold.

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ANDY
Right. So if that were to be like supportive or excuse me, I guess trade sideways and then this thing crosses back over that blue, that that’s that’s an indication of actually to buy indication. So that to me is it’s worth it. Like when you look at the chart, it looks weak initially, but it’s already made this big move across an oversold territory.

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ANDY
It’s where it’s basically trading right where it bounced off of a nice long move back in early June. Oh, you bought the house lumber?

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CODY
Reminds me of corn.

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ANDY
Lumber and corn. Okay.

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CODY
Just just in the fact of we kind of the same thing.

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ANDY
Okay. Yeah. So you’re saying you got caught beneath that?

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CODY
Same thing with our side.

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ANDY
Now, It hasn’t crossed corn. Hasn’t crossed yet.

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CODY
Correct? I guess. Sorry, I’m corn. I was looking back into the beginning of June when it crossed back over and then to took back off to the bullish maybe.

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ANDY
Three will forgive you. It’s okay but you want I don’t know but yeah it to me they said if you want to sell it you got to wait for confirmation. That would be like an open lower into new lows below this part here. But I think you got to be really careful. It’s it’s dangerous that it cross into oversold territory, especially after such a big break like you could you could see like a you know, almost like a move where it’s like kind of does one of these numbers comes back into the stuff in the in these moving averages here and then retest it and then breaks down.

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ANDY
I think that’s like the jeopardy here. And you can also see how close I was. I was close 50%. I was pretty close there.

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CODY
I was pretty good.

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ANDY
So.

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CODY
Yeah, I.

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ANDY
Don’t think I’d like to be I don’t really want to do anything. I’d want to buy it if that RSI close back over the blue. But here it’s just kind of sit here and say on your hands, sorry, keep three don’t on today a.

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CODY
Better looking instead.

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ANDY
Of luck next time. Speaking of better luck next time. So this came at Page’s request. I think that’s.

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CODY
Right.

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ANDY
She too was talking about butter and bread.

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CODY
I’m just the warm up butter to know.

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ANDY
More about butter. That’s fine. Look, I like butter, but, I mean, who does? Who doesn’t like what else? You put butter up.

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CODY
You will butter, butter and bread for butter and rice to soften up the.

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ANDY
Butter and rice.

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CODY
Put in the insupportable butter in there.

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ANDY
Like while you’re cooking it.

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CODY
Yeah, but before. So it doesn’t blow up in your face. But yeah.

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ANDY
Okay. I cook a little rice and like, I do have same lunch every day. Pretty close.

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CODY
It’s butter and butter. Doesn’t look very bullish right out of that.

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ANDY
Butter and rice before, huh? What do you make when you when you put corn or butter on corn? Are you are you like one of those people that rolls on a stick of butter.

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CODY
100%.

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ANDY
Like you have like a big stick and you just like, roll with that thing?

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CODY
Exactly. That you cover the whole you cover the whole gamut of the corn at that point.

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ANDY
And so you like a little corn of your butters, What you’re saying.

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CODY
6,000%.

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ANDY
Yes. Okay. Fair enough.

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CODY
Yes.

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ANDY
We were just looking at the RSI and lumbar and how it crossed that oversold territory. This crossed into overbought territory and then came back down. That’s a sell signal. All right. So that’s right here. So me blow that one up for you.

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CODY
Just the red line. So for everybody. Yes, sir. Talk about the red line we’re across back here.

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ANDY
So when it crosses here, it’s considered overbought. The momentum, it’s like an unsustainable price action. Right. But it’s not a sell signal necessarily. It’s more like a warning, like, hey, if you’re long like this, the math behind it is telling you that it’s overbought and you may want to be leery, but for it to come back down below, that’s a sell signal.

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ANDY
You know, funny enough to the momentum piece of it. That’s also another technical secondary indicator that you could argue, you know, like I think you can make the argument these have charts unto themselves, right? They’re secondary. So you don’t use them as necessarily as trading. Like you look at the chart and then use this as an indication of kind of a confirmation of a trade.

00;09;08;09 – 00;09;33;18
ANDY
But this had a nice uptrend that broke that trend and has failed to test the former high. That’s also a sign of weakness. So you have to you know, I would say fairly popular indicators on a secondary basis telling you that butter is weak here. Yeah. So what’s interesting too, is that you start to see these gaps, asking when you have this move like this and then failed to maintain that.

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ANDY
So you can call I think you can argue that’s an exhausting gap. It’s an exhaustion gap takes place after a move like you have a breakaway gap that that takes place. It starts making information that it breaks out on a gap does that. That’s a breakaway gap. But this looks like more of an exhausting app where you had this move that was progressing.

00;09;53;23 – 00;10;16;07
ANDY
And I’d say the gap is really like right here, did it on high volume, had big price action and then was more or less reversed pretty quickly. So this looks like between these two indicators and then the breaking of here, I think it’s kind of a bigger move where I’d say like it’s like unsustainable price action kind of move.

00;10;16;07 – 00;10;43;29
ANDY
I’d say the next stop is to see if we can go test this one. It’s not far away because 259 is last somewhere in the 256 area breaks that you know that I think I think it’s a quick trip down to like a 245 and then we’ll see now see where it goes. But yeah, I this has been a rally and we’ve seen cash to like what was it yesterday between 267 to 68 traded a lot.

00;10;44;01 – 00;10;55;16
ANDY
So it seemed like there was a bit of a line in the sand drawn in today and there really wasn’t much buy side activity. Sellers walked it down it seemed like, and futures maintained somewhat either like flat to that price or even a discount.

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CODY
Yeah.

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ANDY
So yeah, it feels like this run is going to run its course. It’s terrible anguish, but sorry. And it looks like it wants to go back to that console. I think I think the next step is to go break that second line and then go Dutch to 45.

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CODY
And I think where you have that second line drawn is probably where the 20 day moving average is going to come up and made it right. Just guesstimating at this point.

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ANDY
Or no when you make that yeah I said this has got a quite a few signals. It says at the very least if you long buy puts or something, I think it’s worth getting short, taking a shot at it. I mean the flip side is that you know the goes in I think you’ve got a nice risk reward here too, 66 to 67 from here.

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ANDY
So that’s what, another $0.08 ish. But like I think the risk reward is, you know, losing $0.08 versus making, you know, from 259 down to 245.

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CODY
If draw a retracement on there, about 50% of that retracement is to 55, where I believe is kind of where you have that second line crossing over there.

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ANDY
Let me that from here then. You want to gear. Yeah, blow it up.

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CODY
There you go.

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ANDY
All right. We don’t feel like strong buys. I mean, you normally like to buy.

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CODY
And getting back on the selling train, you got to get excited about something big. We’re excited about Etherium.

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ANDY
Now, that’s courtesy of San Diego.

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CODY
That’s right. Got to research it a little bit, check out what it actually is, and then we’re full bore.

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ANDY
So you going to boil. So. Oh, that was going to be the question. How do you make corn? How do you like? Because there’s a lot of.

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CODY
I don’t know, I don’t actually make corn, but I’m going to somebody else that has corn. There’s going to be part of I’m not I’m making rice and ramen noodles. And that’s pretty much it. I don’t have it. I don’t have a. Or are we talking about glass on the grill? Grill? I have a grill. So I’m not cooking.

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CODY
I’m not getting all fancy boiling corn, doing all this, making crab.

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ANDY
Not doing that a minute. All right. We went from boiling corn to making crab and fancy.

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CODY
I’m just saying, if somebody if somebody’s going invite me over, they don’t have butter for their corn, I probably leave you.

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ANDY
Do you have a pot?

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CODY
I do not have a pot. And you have a pot. I’m like.

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ANDY
What do you have?

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CODY
Like, I have like three dishes, four forks and a cast iron skillet. All right. Very much going on here, I tell you that. Too busy working all the time and too busy working all the time.

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ANDY
Go get some Etherium and then use that, whatever it is. And then you go and get yourself a like a pot boiled corn. You seem to like corn. Do you have water? Do you have running water?

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CODY
Yeah, I do have running water.

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ANDY
Okay, So step one, you’ve got the running water. We’re getting access to corn that you could boil.

00;13;33;24 – 00;13;46;02
CODY
I’m sure I could find some small corn season another week or two. I think it’s coming off the should be coming into everybody’s backyard, you know, like a corn stand’s dispensed. I know it’s been somebody.

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ANDY
Who spends.

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CODY
Like three.

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ANDY
Four, four. It’s three spoons. It’s like a times in a partridge in a pear tree. Like, what is this like?

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CODY
All right, that’s going to do it for 89 tech talk. We appreciate everybody watching. Thank you for the two gentleman that wrote in asking about off the charts this week.

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ANDY
And grill you.

00;14;04;08 – 00;14;04;23
CODY
Until next.

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ANDY
Time. I would never do it again.

00;14;06;26 – 00;14;33;06
CODY
And even better week. We’ll see you guys next time. Done this and ever act we partner with every corner of the agriculture industry, from dairy to livestock crops and agribusiness, to deliver intelligent supply chain and risk management solutions. We are ever at everything agriculture. Learn more at W WW that ever dot again everything.