In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss CME Cheese, Dec Corn, Nov Feeders, and Bitcoin.

Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.

Charts sourced from Ever.Ag Platform.

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00;00;00;17 – 00;00;08;21
VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and it’s not suitable for all. Investor contact provided in the statement is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;08;24 – 00;00;31;26

Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody. He is Andy and it is actually a Friday morning episode. It is Friday morning seven seven 2023. About time we got here, 11:00 Eastern, 10:00 Central time. Lucky number seven, seven, seven. How about that? Seven seven markets are open, were rocking and rolling. All right. It is Friday.

00;00;31;26 – 00;00;52;13

You got a plaid shirt on, Roxanne, right now. Happy to be here. How’s it going? It’s going. You still got all your digits from the fourth. You didn’t blow off any fingers? I think so. I haven’t checked my toes lately. To was still firecrackers down there. I just, like, throw some deep like you do. Do like a big 4th of July and, like, what’s your what would you do?

00;00;52;18 – 00;01;12;01

I mean, I let them kind of risk their lives. I’m not quite into that. So I just sit back watching. Enjoy it. Can you watch it? Enjoy somebody’s risk? It’s just to make me want to come to your 4th of July next year. Is this the same neighbor that you’re mowing their lawn or like, create lawn lawnmowers for 4th of July fireworks?

00;01;12;03 – 00;01;34;29

Yeah. All right. Now, But speaking of works, I just said that speaking the you had some in some of these charts lately. The stock chart. See me? Cheese. What are we doing here or touch anything since last time? Didn’t touch anything since last time. So what do we are? Our 34 right now. So. Oh, dollars 36 is about where the average is.

00;01;34;29 – 00;01;55;19

So this is a season, the average of our season. Me the weekly cheese spot is a block of a barrel divided by two, so we’re getting super close to fill in the gap or that we talked about last time when the prices that was could take a peak 129 on average. We’re super close, right? I mean, the question is, do we fill that gap, interestingly enough?

00;01;55;27 – 00;02;14;08

So if you look at I mean, I mean, they’ve just been beating this thing up and throwing a ton of volume. And by the way, I mean, what was the 35 barrels traded yesterday? Tied for second most all time. Yeah. And you think about that, too. I mean, that’s what, £1.4 million due to think how much was the PSR by check out basis Lola by the way, to learn more about that judgment.

00;02;14;11 – 00;02;37;19

The reason I mention that is because all that you would think makes it into the dips are right. And so close to 10 to 12% of the weekly volume traded yesterday. But I mean, that said, what I think is interesting about this chart is that you’re getting like, if you check out the secondary. So the secondary indicators momentum and what it started to do is climb incrementally back towards zero.

00;02;37;21 – 00;02;57;04

So what that’s indicating is that the rate of decline in the spot market is the lack of a better word, declining. So we’re not going lower at the rate that we have been going since, what is this march, you know, late or late March, early April. And then also, too, it’s basically it’s almost making like a double bottom.

00;02;57;04 – 00;03;15;05

Right. And so sometimes a lot of times these indicators can actually have their own like technical analysis, like, you know, you can look at like a breakout here, for example, right at a downtrend broke out. Right. So I think the first indicator or the first thing you want to watch here is if it crosses zero and changes into positive territory.

00;03;15;05 – 00;03;40;29

So what that would mean is that this is a 12 period momentum. So you want to go back and it would reference the last 12 candles and say like if we crossed zero, that would mean that it is now moving higher relative to the last 12 candles worth of like closes. So it would be like a shift in the wind basically like from from us, like steadily declining to actually either stopping that decline or rallying.

00;03;41;02 – 00;03;58;12

So the fact that we’re at that rate of change is slowing, I think it’s is something to say. I don’t know. I mean, what do you think you think we go so this gap a lot of buyers. I do personally. I really do. I mean we talked about this last week I think the week before that. But I really feel like that gap is going to be filled here pretty soon.

00;03;58;12 – 00;04;13;00

And, you know, everyone’s going to say, where’s the bottom? Where’s the bottom? Where’s the bottom? And we can never dictate that. But you fill that gap and I think people are really going to start saying, okay, is this enough with how much has been trading and how many loads have been traded hands every single day. To your point, I just really feel like that.

00;04;13;00 – 00;04;33;06

129 130 gap needs to be filled. I mean, it’s hard to disagree with it. I think the lower that we go from here, the more pronounced like a rally will be. So it almost like if we if we did go fill that gap, I’d almost look like a Z bottom. Given how much volume has been changing. And to your point, kind of like we did back in 2020, I think.

00;04;33;06 – 00;04;56;15

Mr.. What was it Mr. Trump and his administration bought a lot of cheese back then, so I don’t know if it’s going to be the same, but not, not quite that I guess I was talking about the V bottom that we have and I see what you saying. Yeah, I think the lower that we go from here, the more of a pronounced like the bottom that we start to see fundamentally, I mean we talk about things like milk production and the lower that we go, the more competitive we are in the export space, especially as the deferred futures curve comes down.

00;04;56;21 – 00;05;14;04

So yeah, I mean, to me that’s we’re starting to see some kind of like indications that things are more or less attempting to carve out a bottom. I think this momentum piece is one, the volume increase is another one. You’re starting to see a lot of buyers showing up at lower relative or I mean, or cheap relative to everybody else around the world.

00;05;14;04 – 00;05;36;07

So, yeah, I mean, I wouldn’t be surprised if we fill this gap again. I think the lower that we go, the lower that we go from here, the more pronounced a V bottom and how much more aggressive that would be. Right. So we’re like, let’s say we did that, where would we like the measurement be? I think you’d want to be probably looking to get somewhere kind of around here where we cut, shopped around and then broke, right?

00;05;36;09 – 00;05;56;05

So I think it would be like a quick run to like a dollar 60. Okay. You think about like where we’ve been over the last three years, like it just seems like a big list. Now I get to a dollar 60, right? You know, it’s crazy to think that, but I mean, it is what it is, right? But looking back, I mean, if this chart, it’s kind of where the average has been for the past.

00;05;56;09 – 00;06;14;14

You’re saying two or three years. Yeah, that’s right. That’s right. Ultimately, I think we end up seeing here in this question win. Right. But yeah, especially with those deferred futures curve coming down more and more. I think we’ve seen it also, too. It’s been interesting. Like the one thing that hasn’t set the bearish narrative has been the cold storage report.

00;06;14;17 – 00;06;37;01

Check out our insights portal or more about that. But that’s been declining and you would think that we’d see that increasing. So it was interesting little things kind of bubbling up here, but so Coty’s call pretty fill that gap. So I’m saying, All right, so next one, next, please, please. It’s an oldie but goodie. What do you think here?

00;06;37;03 – 00;06;58;26

What do you think You’re So what happened? $5 or we were trading right now. 5a1 and a half. Mm hmm. Yeah. I mean, we could blow that $5 mark. We kind of bounced right off there as we did again this morning. But it kind of feels like we’re just going to kind of stay a little bit stagnant from here, maybe run a little higher, drift a little lower until some bigger news presents itself.

00;06;58;26 – 00;07;18;18

But looking at start, it kind of sort of make a little bit of a V bottom like we did back in the May. Mm. Yeah. Yeah. I mean you’re starting to get a little bit of like some bullish divergence this, this bottom on this RSI, you know it didn’t cross into oversold territory then we meaning it crossed that blue line so it got super close.

00;07;18;20 – 00;07;38;10

Did we touch it. Let’s say we got there basically got there. What we want to see is more like over here where it crosses. In this case, it crossed into overbought territory and then came back through it. That is a that right there is a bearish indicator that the market was overbought and is now cooling officers. But this it got super close.

00;07;38;14 – 00;08;08;06

If this fails to go and cross that line or at least come back to where it was before and starts to come back up, I think you’re 100% right. I think you’d have to be really careful of the market basically kind of going back, like reverting to its like mean almost right to where it where it started to kind of go right around here was this five 3540 So the one thing I think you got to be super careful of here is that it is like it does have the beginnings of what’s called a bearish, like a wedge.

00;08;08;08 – 00;08;30;07

So a lot of times you see like a big break and then you see come just like a very small almost like it comes to like a point type pattern in the opposite direction. In this case, a V up followed was another abrupt move in the previous trends direction in this case would be lower. So how do you know that that destiny or is not taking shape anymore?

00;08;30;09 – 00;08;52;09

It wouldn’t come to a point, right? So I think if you want to get long here, you can. I think you’ve got like a really clear picture as to where you’re wrong. Right. I mean, there’s clear there’s been some pretty clear support around this for Nigeria. Right? Right. So like you’re at five or one, your risk is about a dime.

00;08;52;12 – 00;09;12;00

I think you can take a shot at getting a little long here. I wouldn’t be opposed to it, especially with the fact that the RSI is now basically in into oversold territory. Very close, and it’s starting to bounce off that number. I think you’ll be super careful if this steer sell stair steps itself higher into like a wedge and gets smaller and smaller in terms of its volatility.

00;09;12;03 – 00;09;39;23

That is an indication of like a bearish wedge and probably want to be out of that or just be mindful of an abrupt break to happen. But I think an indication of that and I have or like that you want to see if you want to be long a close over like yesterday, settle yesterday settle was over the previous two days highs If we get a close up basically on either today then yeah I think it’s a quick trip back to five 4558 it’s going to do that time here.

00;09;39;25 – 00;09;56;04

Yeah. I mean it’s kind of acting like it did back in the middle of May there, but not just as pronounced, right. I mean, we we finally we bounced off for 90 and proceeded ourselves quite higher in a short amount of time. It’s got a nice risk reward from the from the long side rightly said I mean, you know, you’re wrong.

00;09;56;04 – 00;10;15;06

It breaks through here. Right. But it’s it gets especially today as it closes back above five bucks and can close over yesterday’s high especially. That would be a real good sign. But like I said, I mean, from here, buying at $5, I think your risk reward is up to 550. But for 90 or lower, you’re out. So it’s a really nice little risk reward.

00;10;15;06 – 00;10;30;07

I think, to this trade. I think you could take a shot of being a little long. Last time we said that Bilbo John Billington was quick to point out that we were wrong in hindsight, really is he really is the smartest person in hindsight I’ve ever met in my life. I mean, we need our critics also. We need them.

00;10;30;07 – 00;10;51;12

We need them on the show. So we need to. Maestro, So what’s next? We got a little bit of theater. No feeders, No feeders. Your chart. I mean, this one. I don’t know. This was all dicey. Especially if we think corn is going to go up. Cedar cattle and corn typically have an inverse relationship. So corn goes up, you would expect Cedar’s come down, Correct.

00;10;51;18 – 00;11;08;11

So that’s interesting. What’s what I what I thought was interesting here too, is that, you know, we looked at we just looked at some of the secondary indicators for cheese and corn. I mean, the same thing can be told about feeders here, too. It tried to get into overbought territory and failed to do so. And it’s starting to kind of come back down.

00;11;08;14 – 00;11;29;15

So in a lot of ways it’s putting in a lower high on the indicator right here, right here versus here. So we we start to continue to as we continue to break. But also, two, you’re doing the same thing. You could potentially be doing the same thing in the momentum. So momentum cleared over this ten, ten period mark here and it’s failing, potentially failing to do so here.

00;11;29;17 – 00;11;49;28

The does that’s a big sign of weakness here. And this could be characterized as a false breakout, especially if you can’t fill this gap right here. We break out, come back and gapped lower to come back below that. Right. And so if we can’t fill this gap, this could get a little bit dicey, especially for an serves rally.

00;11;50;00 – 00;12;05;19

So I probably want to be I don’t know if I’d be behind this break. You want to get long and probably be buying calls at this point as opposed to futures. If you had futures that you were long probably want to buy some puts against them or something like that. If you want to keep them invert the futures in the calls, basically.

00;12;05;26 – 00;12;25;14

Yeah. The secondary indicators are certainly acting like this. This was a false breakout and this gap doesn’t get filled. If it doesn’t, let’s say we close like let’s say we close below yesterday’s close here. So right there, price is up to 47 and a half. Yeah, to 47 and a half roughly. That would be a pretty good sign of weakness.

00;12;25;16 – 00;12;47;22

Both indicators pointing lower and then you close, you fail to fill the gap. That could send us back down to here. I mean, you probably pretty quickly too, if you take out the RSI, jump in the beginning of June there where we went into overbought territory, we just kind of stay within this little trend, right? We get down oversold and says, nope, not good enough, go back higher, touch the overbought and you got to fall right back apart.

00;12;47;24 – 00;13;04;27

It’s a weird, weird little trade here. It’s a tough one. Like this. This kind of concerns me that this false breakout here, especially with what these guys are doing down here and be a little careful. You’re not getting confirmation out of this. If you want to see confirmation and a really good example of this, by the way, is right here.

00;13;04;29 – 00;13;25;27

So you cross into positive momentum territory right here along right here. And it started to go right. So but here, like you had a high like this is a nice little trend right here of the momentum and then it breaks through the trend and then puts in like a like a lower or higher low, so to speak. And then it crosses zero.

00;13;25;27 – 00;13;49;28

You’ve got a nice indicator pointing higher in it really. I think led to a nice little move here. It’s just it’s failing to get through the previous high, which is a sign of weakness. So now it’s going to be dicey in theaters. I mean, this that market’s been rocking. If you go if you go like to the home dairy, how much like, let’s see, take some cows to beef up which again like right now it’s at about $10.10.

00;13;49;28 – 00;14;14;00

So it’s good. I know the prices are good. These are these are prices. The guys I was going to ask, like, how is that relative to like, yeah, last five years or something. A lot higher. A lot higher on the average. Absolutely. Yeah. Yeah. We’ll see some more smoke around. More beef. So who knows? It’s a mystery. The last one, certainly not, at least from our good friend Norma to my good friend Norma.

00;14;14;02 – 00;14;42;21

Thanks, Norma. Bitcoin. I don’t even know what to do here. You’re not really Bitcoin is. Does anybody. Does Does anybody know? Have you ever really lived? I don’t know. What do you think? Yeah. I want to try to switch to a monthly here. It just do that monthly. Monthly bitcoin, not the bitcoin looks a little bit more interesting than the daily weekly bitcoin.

00;14;42;23 – 00;15;04;21

Back to the daily. I guess the only thing that what kind of bothers me about this is this rounding, right? Like normally you would see like by here like a breakout and again you would just basically take the measurement would be about from almost like a slag from here to here right where it broke out from. You take that and laid on top.

00;15;04;23 – 00;15;37;13

It is still could do that. Right. Right. But if you basically close below what is 3000 roughly 30,000. Yeah, I say 3000. 30,000. You know it’s on bitcoin to cheap 3000. Am I doing. Yeah. No I think that would be a sign of like it retracing itself back in like let’s say 27,000 or broke out from and you’d probably get you’re getting even somewhat like what we just talk about with momentum piece it’s starting to roll over here which is a sign that like this again a sign of weakness, a sign that this is not like this move is not being sustained.

00;15;37;15 – 00;15;55;24

So you want to be a little bit careful. That said, if he did get a breakout, let’s say about 32,000, basically just take where broke out from and lay it right on top, takes up to 30 tops, 37,000. And that was looking back at the monthly. So that wouldn’t be all time highs. But I mean, climbing just it would be.

00;15;55;26 – 00;16;16;09

Yes, it would be. I don’t know. I this one, it’s tough, right? Because it’s just kind of in this it’s just in this range where you’d probably just want to trade it on a breakout. Right. You could sell it here. You’re not getting any sort of confirmation. I’m like any sort of breakout. And all of a sudden you could you could just basically chop within that range and you’ve the low of the range.

00;16;16;12 – 00;16;35;16

So you’d want to see a breakout if the direction for trading, then I would imagine it’s my $0.02, but I don’t know any bitcoin yet, any bitcoin. I do not own any bitcoin. Somebody was telling me about bitcoin like ATMs. Now you believe that you go to an ATM and you pull out bitcoin, but even though you can’t steal bitcoin, what do you pull out?

00;16;35;19 – 00;16;51;28

I don’t know. See, I was hoping you knew. I had no idea. I think we should find one tested out. Test it out. Well, you got to buy some bitcoin first. I don’t have any bitcoin. What is it like the first guy who, like, mined Bitcoin? He mined enough of it to buy like a pizza at the time.

00;16;51;28 – 00;17;02;08

And now that pizza would be worth like $1,000,000,000 or something like that. Interesting. Yeah. I don’t even know. This is very interesting to me.

00;17;02;10 – 00;17;21;28

I don’t know. Either way, we appreciate you writing in what to look at. Bitcoin helps you out a little bit, but that’s going to do it for and you know, all the hang in a second, is the Hammer doing anything here? What’s going on with the hammer? That the hammer is at risk. We have nothing to buy or sell or do I rest like a pedestal that you put the hammer on?

00;17;21;28 – 00;17;41;29

It’s like floating in like, like a gravity saying where it’s just like just sits on the floor. It’s just kind of laying in the corner, sits right on the floor, just being waiting to be used and waiting, just sitting there. Cody Come on, buy something. Cody’s God. All right, everybody, that’s going to do it for another episode of Tech Talk with Andy and myself.

00;17;41;29 – 00;18;07;01

We appreciate you watching. If you have not already subscribed to our ever channel, please do subscribe. It’s thumbs up. Leave. His comment gives a shout out. Send in some charts that you want to look at. And by the way, we’re not going to be here next week. We’re taking a little hiatus back in two weeks. So until then, get outside, enjoy the weather, enjoy your weekends, and we’ll see you next time.

00;18;07;03 – 00;18;08;02

It sounds like plan.

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