Tech Talk – Don’t Hold Up the Line – August 10, 2023

00;00;00;17 – 00;00;08;28
VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and it’s not suitable for all. Investor contact provided in the statement is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;09;00 – 00;00;22;11
CODY
Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody. He is Andy. Today is the 10th of August 20, 23, about 320 Central Time in the afternoon. Andy, how are you?

00;00;22;13 – 00;00;31;19
ANDY
You know what, Cody? I’m doing phenomenal. It’s good now that I’m here with you, talking about charts and all that by page, it’s going great. Everything’s going great.

00;00;31;26 – 00;00;35;09
CODY
Everything is back in order. Then you’re going for ice cream after this.

00;00;35;11 – 00;00;36;29
ANDY
Gold for ice cream. It’s you units for your.

00;00;37;05 – 00;00;38;19
CODY
Birthday G unit. Happy? Very.

00;00;38;19 – 00;00;48;27
ANDY
Go you sick. You need two hands to hold is six. You did that right? One, two, three, six, six. Got it. I’m just fly.

00;00;49;01 – 00;00;49;26
CODY
I’m five.

00;00;49;28 – 00;00;55;15
ANDY
You eat ice cream. By the way, we just. We learned last week that you, like you eat corn, but you have no way to actually, like make.

00;00;55;21 – 00;00;59;01
CODY
I do probably chocolate chip.

00;00;59;03 – 00;00;59;15
ANDY
Straight up.

00;00;59;15 – 00;01;04;06
CODY
Chocolate chip straight up chocolate chip ice cream. You are you.

00;01;04;08 – 00;01;18;08
ANDY
You know what I was a lot like the Reese’s peanut butter cups and they’re like the peanut like the chocolate peanut butter. Big peanut butter fan. So. Well, I know. We’ll see. We’re going to go in an ice cream.

00;01;18;10 – 00;01;20;14
CODY
Say, it sounds like after the show you have a big decision to make.

00;01;20;14 – 00;01;21;13
ANDY
I do have a big decision.

00;01;21;16 – 00;01;36;16
CODY
Just don’t know. The first. You know, like when you’re directly in front of the window, I don’t like those people. Make the decision while you’re in line and stick to your decision. Don’t get up that way. I don’t know what I’m going to Now you have time. Make the decision on the way. Don’t be that person.

00;01;36;18 – 00;01;42;01
ANDY
Please. I’m not going to be asked where I’m going to be pacing up and down the ice cream aisle or whatever it is with the.

00;01;42;01 – 00;01;44;04
CODY
Window on my life. Like, I can’t.

00;01;44;04 – 00;01;53;18
ANDY
Stand that the one pet peeves in Cody’s life, people that don’t order or wait to think about what they want to order. Is that just an ice cream or is that like anything.

00;01;53;20 – 00;02;04;04
CODY
Anything, anywhere you go, you know a lot order it. And if you don’t, you get nervous ordered. The first thing that you see. Who cares? Take it. Get out of the way. People are waiting. Can’t take anywhere.

00;02;04;07 – 00;02;05;13
ANDY
You feel that.

00;02;05;15 – 00;02;07;28
CODY
On that note too angry what we got today.

00;02;08;00 – 00;02;21;26
ANDY
We got a couple. We got we got up. We got some shards packed in here. We got some activity here as of late. This is spot cheese dancing just like slow just took off. Yeah, I mean, we just, like, ripped and now we’re starting to kind of run out of gas a little bit.

00;02;21;28 – 00;02;23;18
CODY
It seems like, though.

00;02;23;20 – 00;02;42;27
ANDY
I don’t know. I mean, this one, you look at the way those features are trading and certainly doesn’t seem to like the cheese is technically higher today, but not by much. It was like a quarter and each quarter and each futures were. I think you can make the argument a little bit discount going in the day. And if you want to add in a little bit of premium Scott parody, I guess, but sold off for cash.

00;02;42;29 – 00;03;10;02
ANDY
Yes. I mean, went back and go back down lows, but definitely like higher cash didn’t seem to stimulate any sort of material buying out of the futures market that pump things back up. So it’s it’s interesting the futures are acting the way they are at this price point in cash. So, you know, I think what’s what’s interesting here is if you get this, this is shaping up to be a potential inside day as we open lower below this part, below last week’s lows, the weekly.

00;03;10;04 – 00;03;34;08
ANDY
So this low is, what, 186 ish. So if we settle here and then let’s say tomorrow and then open, you know, next week, anything but two, two and a quarter, two and a half cents lower. That would be an inside day, inside the Dow, it’s a weekly basis, but like the bars of the inside down. And that would that would put this gap in jeopardy of being sold.

00;03;34;10 – 00;03;53;19
ANDY
So I think, you know, the close here this week, if we stay within the range of this candle and then we open lower next week, then I think it’s a quick trip to fill this gap in. Futures, like I said, have been seem like things are pretty content on building a discount, which would mean you know, or at least anticipating a lower spot.

00;03;53;22 – 00;04;03;09
CODY
Kind like you said. I mean, especially the price movement that we saw before Spot and then directly after spot, we we got a little bit of a bit there, but not enough to really write home about. Right.

00;04;03;11 – 00;04;25;14
ANDY
So if you do that to that low. Yeah. I mean the first like so or is the first like you know retracement specific 30% 62 a third is that 69 Scotland 70 easy math. I mean a third of this would basically be to fill in this gap. Yeah. Let’s so yeah I mean I think it’s certainly possible so futures are certainly acting that way.

00;04;25;16 – 00;04;33;22
ANDY
I think that’s something to be really mindful of and experience. And speaking of futures acting that way, as after September, we want to hear some sort of pricing next week, doesn’t it?

00;04;33;23 – 00;04;41;25
CODY
It does. I think we actually talked about this last time we were on here. We filled the gap at one 1715 ish. That number bounced off there.

00;04;42;00 – 00;04;42;17
ANDY
There it is right.

00;04;42;17 – 00;04;47;23
CODY
There and now seems to be running out of gas a little bit.

00;04;47;25 – 00;05;09;13
ANDY
Yeah. Now I think we can talk about this internally, too. I mean, we had like it was shaping up to have a nice potential bull flag, right? So where and maybe so plays out like this would be like quote the flagpole and if you break out of and then it starts to chop lower. But if it breaks out of that, you basically just take the measurement here.

00;05;09;16 – 00;05;31;20
ANDY
Yeah. To just measure the distance of the flagpole where from where it breaks out from. And so it tried to break out what was this place? This is Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, right there. Yep. And then promptly came back down. I mean, that’s it’s a failed a failure there. So it’s this is kind of again, we were just talking about how futures were starting to kind of anticipate a potential break in cash.

00;05;31;22 – 00;05;49;22
ANDY
I think that has to be something to be really just, I guess, mindful of is your point that gap, it was acting as support. If you break through that price, which is I think we had it here. So 17 if we trade below $17, I think it’s you get a technical break, a quick trip back to 16 and a half.

00;05;49;24 – 00;05;50;10
CODY
Now.

00;05;50;12 – 00;05;54;16
ANDY
Cash and cash is going to cash has to break. So it starts pricing next week. Right.

00;05;54;21 – 00;06;20;04
CODY
Was that was going to kind of lead over to my next question. You and I were talking about this earlier, but if we keep breaking down to let’s just call it 17, 2017, 25, we’re still within that flag formation there. Can we still take off? Because would it truly be a failure until we broke below it? 1725, 17/5, 13 where you have that line drawn, That is when you would consider that a complete failure of a bull flag, correct?

00;06;20;08 – 00;06;42;20
ANDY
I mean, it’s definitely like a warning sign here right at it. So, yeah, I mean, it tried to break out and sailed. Right. And so that’s a big warning sign. But to your point it goes and tests the what was support and this gap and the breaks through that then it’s a quick trip of 16 and a half potentially which would be consistent to if we go back to start real fast if you consistent so selling that gap right.

00;06;42;23 – 00;07;04;19
ANDY
Yep. So yeah I think it’s something you got to be really careful of. The flip side is what’s what’s it going to take to get that flag formation to really turn around as again we start pricing next week. Right. We got to get closer for 90 to keep going. Yeah. Possible. Yeah. I think it’s just interesting the way the futures are acting like today the ash is up, futures just not buying into it at all.

00;07;04;21 – 00;07;08;11
ANDY
So at least we talked about this. I don’t think I touched anything.

00;07;08;12 – 00;07;11;15
CODY
No, I got the same thing drawn mine. We have not.

00;07;11;17 – 00;07;28;10
ANDY
In the thing we did talk about. No, but we did talk about a lesson. Yeah. I don’t know, man. It’s going to do it that time or it looks like it’s trying to make it in the breaks through here. But I still think it’s a quick trip back down to the 250 area and you have some of these secondary indicators like here, try to get through.

00;07;28;11 – 00;07;48;05
ANDY
It got into overbought and it’s failing to get back into the overbought territory. Right. So that’s that’s a sign of weakness. And we had this up down here in the momentum and you’re not getting any sort of like, you know, attempt to go back to the price meaning or this this level here. So the secondary stuff is the secondary indicators are definitely telling you that this this weakness could potentially persist.

00;07;48;08 – 00;07;52;11
ANDY
And since we’re basically up against eyes here, it looks like it wants to make it out.

00;07;52;13 – 00;07;59;09
CODY
I was going to ask them or Elliott Wave theory, but the more that you kind of spell out the AM, the more that it kind of actually does take that front.

00;07;59;09 – 00;08;18;15
ANDY
Yeah, I think it I think it’s it was going to be like what you said, like the like I could say like second wave and anything’s possible, but I think these like the momentum piece, I think this would have been lower and I think you’d see this back towards this high right here. Okay. Right. It got into overbought.

00;08;18;15 – 00;08;45;03
ANDY
It got overbought here. Right. This the I guess the pace of that rally would have been less or not is I mean, this is like almost parabolic, right? It just it would have been like I how to explain it, the rate of change would have been less. So I think it was too steep. We’ll see. But to me, the secondary pieces are the ones that I think are the biggest tells overbought is failing to get back over that as a sign of weakness.

00;08;45;05 – 00;08;51;01
CODY
Well, I mean, it sounds like tomorrow, Friday, end of the week is going to be a big day for a lot of our charts that we looked at today.

00;08;51;03 – 00;08;52;22
ANDY
Yeah, we. What’s your point, Right.

00;08;52;29 – 00;08;55;08
CODY
Was that for for grains.

00;08;55;11 – 00;09;15;27
ANDY
Ago So I mean and with the butter too real fast I mean you know you’re like it’s so you’re trying to sell something here. I mean it’s because it’s so close to its previous high. And again, you’ve got some indicators that are pointing lower. You’ve got some pretty clear, I guess, risk reward. Right. Those trades do 67. You’re wrong.

00;09;16;01 – 00;09;36;06
ANDY
You know, we were just getting out signals that, you know, if we roll over, you know, there’s, you know, 15 to $0.15 worth of potential downside here. So there’s a nice like a risk reward ratio there for getting short of this press release effecting a shot at it. We shall see. I don’t know. You keep you keep putting up your corn the way you do.

00;09;36;08 – 00;09;37;20
ANDY
There might not be any butter left.

00;09;37;22 – 00;09;40;05
CODY
This the time of the year. I mean, you got ice cream.

00;09;40;07 – 00;09;46;16
ANDY
By the way. I know I’m going to get ice cream and I’ll. You know what? I’m going to look at the menu before I go.

00;09;46;19 – 00;09;49;16
CODY
I just want to keep you from your ice cream, that’s all. Sounds very exciting.

00;09;49;18 – 00;09;54;28
ANDY
You’re going to keep anybody on the ice. I’m just saying, like, I’m my intention is to look at the menu before I go.

00;09;55;00 – 00;09;57;12
CODY
I and everybody else in line would appreciate that.

00;09;57;12 – 00;10;08;04
ANDY
I mean, maybe. Maybe there’s like a business opportunity for you there, like create an app or something that allows you to like, Oh, where are you going to go? Well, let’s make sure you don’t hold up a line. I don’t maybe that’s the name of the game. Like when you.

00;10;08;04 – 00;10;22;06
CODY
Walk in and you see the I don’t even know what it’s called, the marquee behind you. It has all the flavors on there. No matter where you are. Pick, right. You’re in line chat and you’re on your cell phone petting the dog. Whatever you’re doing, look up there, Right. Don’t get to the front of the line. Be like, Nah, I don’t know what I want.

00;10;22;09 – 00;10;25;25
CODY
You do what you want. Order it.

00;10;25;27 – 00;10;27;06
ANDY
I don’t know what I want, right?

00;10;27;13 – 00;10;41;02
CODY
Maybe I’m just an impatient person. I don’t know. It could very well be. All right. Well, with that shout out to your son on the sixth birthday, everybody, we appreciate you watching, tuning in, everybody. We’re going to be on a hiatus on tech talk for two weeks, end of October.

00;10;41;05 – 00;10;42;14
ANDY
We will see you when you see you.

00;10;42;14 – 00;10;46;25
CODY
When we see you. Everybody have a great weekend. Great few weeks. Enjoy the ice cream, my friend.

00;10;46;28 – 00;10;47;24
ANDY
And I will. Thank you.

00;10;47;25 – 00;11;10;18
CODY
All right. And every act we partner with every corner of the agriculture industry, from dairy to livestock crops and agribusiness, to deliver intelligent supply chain and risk management solutions. We are ever at everything agriculture. Learn more at W WW that ever dot again. Everything.