Milk Production – September 18, 2023

August 50-state milk production at 19.0 billion pounds, with daily output down 0.2% year-over-year.

First Impressions:
Bearish. US milk production declined 0.2% year-over-year in August, beating our expectation of -0.7%.

Standing out, cow numbers were unchanged from July – surprising given elevated slaughter rates during the month. The herd totaled 9.39 million head, down 16,000 head from last year (though that was less of a deficit than last month’s -23,000 head).

Compared to July, the year-over-year growth rates improved in California (from -5.5% in July to -3.7% in August), the Pacific Northwest and the Northeast. And despite some strong summer heat waves, the Midwest (+1.4%) and Mideast (+3.3%) saw growth rates off just a few tenths of a percent compared to July.

50-State Cow Numbers:
• 9,390,000 head
• Unchanged head month-over-month
• Down 16,000 year-over-year

Regional Daily Production Data:
• California: Down 3.7%
• Mideast: Up 3.3%
• Midwest: Up 1.4%
• Northeast: Up 2.4%
• Pacific Northwest: Up 0.7%
• Southwest: Down 3.9%

International Output:
• EU – July: +0.3%
• New Zealand – July: -0.7%
• Australia – July: +0.1%
• Mexico – August: +2.1%
• Argentina – July: -0.2%
• Brazil – June: +5.5%