In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss corn, Jan class III milk, spot nonfat and the S&P 500.

Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.

Charts sourced from Ever.Ag Platform.

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00;00;00;17 – 00;00;08;21
VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and it’s not suitable for all. Investor contact provided in the statement is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;08;24 – 00;00;22;17
CODY
Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody. He is Andy. It is the very last day of November 2023. I her twin had a fantastic Thanksgiving. Andy, did you have a great Thanksgiving?

00;00;22;17 – 00;00;26;24
ANDY
Fantastic Thanksgiving, if I can use your parlance there. How about you?

00;00;26;27 – 00;00;28;24
CODY
I had a great one. What was your favorite dish?

00;00;28;27 – 00;00;36;02
ANDY
Know? It was kind of crazy. We had to I’ve never done this before. We had two types of crazy. Oh, you know, one, two. Most people just have one very brother.

00;00;36;04 – 00;00;37;12
CODY
Nice life.

00;00;37;14 – 00;00;47;18
ANDY
Yeah. My brother in law also showed up with, like, a bunch of, like, free Costco pies. And, like, you’re seeing all those things that are, like, massive or huge. But yeah. What was your favorite dish?

00;00;47;20 – 00;00;52;20
CODY
I got to go. The old tried and true turkey. Turkey? Me not white meat.

00;00;52;21 – 00;00;55;28
ANDY
You know, it’s easy to dry turkey out, by the way. You got to be careful.

00;00;56;01 – 00;00;58;05
CODY
That’s why I can’t go with the white meat. It’s just too dry.

00;00;58;09 – 00;00;59;02
ANDY
Did you host.

00;00;59;08 – 00;01;13;24
CODY
My parents did. I did not. So I didn’t. I did the same kind of thing as your brother in law. I just went to a local store, grab a couple of things, put it on my own plate so that I made it even though everyone know that I didn’t and lied my way through Thanksgiving. It was awesome.

00;01;13;26 – 00;01;17;22
ANDY
Find your way through Thanksgiving. Well, it’s happy holidays.

00;01;17;24 – 00;01;19;02
CODY
Nowadays, everyone.

00;01;19;04 – 00;01;30;04
ANDY
Maybe this year you’ll get some plates you can house next year. Ours are like a bowl. I’m openly speaking of. I don’t know. Corn. Yes, sure. This gave me a request, and it.

00;01;30;07 – 00;01;38;25
CODY
It did a good one. Kyle from North Dakota requested March corn specifically. We actually have two requests on the docket today. This is the first one, too.

00;01;39;01 – 00;01;41;07
ANDY
And we’re going to end with a request, if I’m not mistaken.

00;01;41;12 – 00;01;42;01
CODY
Yep.

00;01;42;03 – 00;01;51;13
ANDY
We can watch our carts with requests. There you go. Little leftover sandwich from Thanksgiving. Oh, I love Thanksgiving leftovers, by the way. There’s some in. Well, what do you think you’re thinking?

00;01;51;13 – 00;02;06;20
CODY
Hearing one created some new lows here in March. Corn. What? Tuesday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. A little bit of a rally there. Got below. Those are low for 70 and a half yesterday.

00;02;06;22 – 00;02;29;00
ANDY
Today’s Thursday the 30th. Right. And so this is today’s candle. This is about ten a little after ten this morning and Central Time. So this is today’s like active candle. Okay. So yesterday I thought for 70 and a half and that was the preceding days low I think as well. And now that low is 471. So I guess interestingly enough, I mean, the chart poked in the new lows on a close and then add these to little and just call that like the market being kind of indifferent didn’t know what to do.

00;02;29;03 – 00;02;40;06
ANDY
Super tight range candles not exactly like a dog but pretty close and now starting to kind of reject that. But I mean, these ranges are so small too. This is a 25 cent break that takes place over the course of a full calendar month.

00;02;40;13 – 00;02;45;16
CODY
Right. You got 5 to 6 higher lows going in here.

00;02;45;18 – 00;03;14;03
ANDY
And so I guess it’s tough because when you look at like the momentum, it’s not doing anything. It’s just basically kind of hugging zero, which doesn’t really offer any kind of like a signal. The RSI is just not telling you. Like you want to see that break into oversold territory, break that blue line and then come back out to be more, I guess, what confirm signals unnecessarily necessarily think you could say like the RSI is telling you it’s super bullish because it could certainly rotate back down and still approach the blue line and be ish.

00;03;14;05 – 00;03;14;13
CODY
Yeah.

00;03;14;19 – 00;03;37;17
ANDY
So I mean, that’s a tough one, right? It’s just there’s so little volatility here. I guess the only thing that kind of sticks out to me is you have this right here, right? So this has been really enforced since a little over a month ago. We’ve been trending lower. So I guess if anything, a breakout of this could facilitate a trade back over five bucks and into this, like five, ten.

00;03;37;19 – 00;03;48;26
ANDY
What is this high 517 now? 517. Then? Yeah. I mean, not one to talk about here. They had a boatload of volatility back here, but since then slow motion.

00;03;49;02 – 00;04;10;04
CODY
So we talked to Jim MATTHEWS, host of the Grain Feed. Check it out. I talked to him on, you know, kind of the same volatility that we saw here. And he said the thing that will bring us out of this rangebound corn would probably be the next USDA was, I believe, is middle of January. That’s a big month, month and a half way.

00;04;10;04 – 00;04;23;16
CODY
But until then, you know, he kind of said the same thing is we just kind of seem to see stay a little rangebound going into the end of the year. Harvest is generically over for everybody. But the next USDA report is what’s really going to pick our poison here. Sure.

00;04;23;19 – 00;04;44;13
ANDY
And you know, from a weekly, even monthly standpoint, we’ve seen a significant retracement, obviously, of this big run. We had in the latter part of 2020. The market certainly took off from what is this for work? And of course, you know, if we were to continue to trend lower, let’s say that report is bearish, I would imagine that price becomes like I mean, that’s a big it’s a big move away, right?

00;04;44;13 – 00;04;59;02
ANDY
I mean, especially that’s a 60% move in a market that hasn’t moved more than $0.25 in over a month for 25. Does that become like a big, big magnet item on a long term basis? Maybe. But to your point, probably not going to see a ton of volatility in that report. I would imagine this is no new information, he said.

00;04;59;02 – 00;05;18;21
ANDY
Harvest is over, so you probably want to just trade this range, I guess, right? Like if we get this break out of this downtrend here, you get this breakout, you probably have a little bit of a pop, but now you start approaching like these, like obviously 520 is a price the market doesn’t like. Here, here, here. I mean, that could be like a target sort of speak worth And you want to be looking at selling.

00;05;18;23 – 00;05;22;01
ANDY
Yeah. No, I guess Wait and see for the report. Check out Jim stuff.

00;05;22;03 – 00;05;23;16
CODY
Jim Tucker Introduction.

00;05;23;18 – 00;05;36;17
ANDY
This one’s been interesting, General. Yikes. So this is today’s this one right here today. Scandal, 1620. That’s a little. We got about a half hour till cash. So this could be different by the time this one comes out. Yesterday, though, how about yesterday session?

00;05;36;19 – 00;05;45;14
CODY
That was crazy. I mean, we saw quite a bit of volatility in the milk market. And I think somebody from our company brought it up that, hey, we finally had some pretty decent trade here in December and January.

00;05;45;16 – 00;05;54;28
ANDY
So yesterday, January traded 1589 cars, down 11 open interest, up 1100 cars. That’s massive.

00;05;55;00 – 00;05;56;10
CODY
That’s crazy.

00;05;56;13 – 00;06;16;08
ANDY
That’s that is crazy. And, you know, this is a quick refresher. Open interest, a build of one means that there is a new buyer and a new seller. Right. And so if you are buying January and I’m selling it to you and you and I are both new, that’s a build of open interest of one. If you’re liquidating and I’m new, that’s a that’s a zero.

00;06;16;15 – 00;06;37;15
ANDY
And if both you and I are liquidating, that’s a negative one. Right? Right. And so to see a build in open interest of 1100 contracts means that the buying and the selling for 1100 contracts were both new. What I think is I guess that the interesting part about that is that I’d say almost all of the selling in January, all of the pretty close came as a result of that spread that was trading.

00;06;37;15 – 00;06;54;23
ANDY
I was about 1200 of them traded yesterday. That’s a massive number. And it was you know, you look at the December open interest and it was down 687. So you can make the inference that the buyer in December was liquidating shorts and turning around, selling January. Right. So they were all the shorts and a January. Again, it’s just us inferring something, right?

00;06;54;23 – 00;07;12;06
ANDY
We have no idea that that could mean that the new selling in January came as a result of this role. My question is, who is the new law in the January right? Who bought that and established a new position? We’re not that big of a premium to cash me in 15 1530 is current cash using December way. So you got to add some premium into that.

00;07;12;06 – 00;07;31;04
ANDY
I doubt we get a check out Joe’s channel, by the way bases loaded to learn more about NASS and premiums and all that stuff. And do we see a nice barrel in the 145 hour time with that? So you got to think that there’s going to be some premium I guess, built in the nest. My point so it’s interesting, you know, you’ve got this big new open position that got established yesterday.

00;07;31;06 – 00;07;50;12
ANDY
We went from 1850 to 1620 and all of a sudden you’ve got 1100 new shorts that are established. I mean, that’s really interesting. And the fact that they only had to move the market $0.10 to establish 1100 new shorts, I think is also very interesting. So technically, you look at like the RSI in the last couple of days, January’s entered oversold territory right here.

00;07;50;14 – 00;08;08;25
ANDY
So this guy down here, you could stay oversold for a while. Right? And so if you go back and look in here, we entered oversold territory May 11. We really didn’t climb out of it successfully until June mid-June and then really didn’t climb back out until July. So you could be oversold for a while, according to these indicators.

00;08;08;25 – 00;08;27;18
ANDY
Right. And that’s it’s when you cross back out of it is when you want to be really mindful of it. So, you know, it’s kind of a warning signal for those that are short. Right. So you got you got a couple of warning signals that are kind of cropping up. You’re right. You got a big break. And now you’ve seen a pretty big, long new, long established where it feels like this short is just rolling shorts from to Jan.

00;08;27;21 – 00;08;44;05
ANDY
And then the market is now officially according the RSI entered oversold territory And then I guess the other the other piece of it too and I’d be curious your opinion from a producer’s perspective. Do you feel like there’s going to be a lot of new selling here at 1620 from like assuming the new sale in January with the speculator, assuming that.

00;08;44;11 – 00;08;45;01
CODY
Right.

00;08;45;03 – 00;08;49;07
ANDY
You feel like there’s going to be new selling from producers around $16?

00;08;49;09 – 00;09;09;22
CODY
I personally don’t think there is. I was going to say I think we take a quick trip 16, maybe break into the $15 handle, but I don’t think we stay in the 1580s, 1590s very long before we get a little bit of a a pop going on here higher. So I think it’s you know if you didn’t sell at 18, you didn’t sell at 1750 or $17.

00;09;09;29 – 00;09;23;26
CODY
I don’t know what’s going to make you say a $16. I need to get this market sold. When we are looking at the chart creeping into new lows every single day for four January, you know, I just I don’t see people layering on a whole lot of short positions down here.

00;09;24;01 – 00;09;42;21
ANDY
Yeah. I mean, somebody established an 1100 new shorts yesterday, so it’s exactly. Yeah, I guess my question is the person that would be selling the edge, you know, like a producer inventory or something like that, Are we going to see them selling here? I guess gut feeling is no, right. So then it becomes a question. Can cheese continue to break?

00;09;42;24 – 00;10;02;02
ANDY
Seems like in the barrel at least you get it down to 140. You encourage buying, but you take it above 150 on cart selling. Right. So it feels like cash could still be somewhat rangebound, but I think again, I guess technically looking at it, technically you’re seeing some indicators that if you’re short, you should be at least considering like, do I just cover futures and buy puts?

00;10;02;02 – 00;10;19;16
ANDY
Do I buy calls against the date of a risk reversal? I think you have to be having those conversations. The flip side is, too, that the momentum here is failing to put in the new low, if you look right here. Right, right. So this stuff trades technically, too. So it was clearly in a downtrend crossed zero. You know, this is a healthy downtrend from the momentum standpoint.

00;10;19;22 – 00;10;35;22
ANDY
Trying to rally back failed to do so, but it’s making its own version of like a W, So that is technically more of like a bullish signal for this. But this particular indicator, which would at least indicate that you don’t have to go up in price for momentum to go back to zero, you just have to start trading sideways.

00;10;35;25 – 00;10;54;24
ANDY
So I think if the market started to trade sideways, you probably get some, you know, some of those that are short, a little bit nervous and like we’re not that much of a premium anymore. Somebody has got really long and now some of this momentum stuff is is failing to continue. And it’d be a different story if we’re at 17 bucks versus current cash at 1530 which not.

00;10;54;25 – 00;10;58;18
ANDY
So I think it’s something to be mindful of here. This has turned into a very interesting trade.

00;10;58;20 – 00;10;59;09
CODY
Agreed.

00;10;59;12 – 00;11;03;09
ANDY
And all this hammer worthy yet I won’t say that you.

00;11;03;11 – 00;11;08;24
CODY
Know $16 maybe 1590 type you know you’re like I think can go.

00;11;08;28 – 00;11;24;13
ANDY
Up the hammer. You’re like you’re like Justin. And I’m like, cleaning it up. It’s like, we’re ready to go. It’s sitting like I’m almost reaching for it, but not quite like, exactly right. I will table it. We’ll put a pin in it as a.

00;11;24;15 – 00;11;25;02
CODY
Footprint and I’ll.

00;11;25;09 – 00;11;45;09
ANDY
Put a pen on that one. Here’s another one spot non fat. So question I was asked about this one and that’s an interesting one is you have first are we in the middle of number two that would then lead to number three? Really, if you want to be technical about it, you want to take this guy and really just kind of lay it on top.

00;11;45;11 – 00;11;48;06
CODY
So you’re talking about technical number.

00;11;48;08 – 00;12;10;18
ANDY
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, so again, like the formation would be like, is this the beginning of an Elliott wave, right where you had this significant downtrend? We clearly broke out of that and started to build a base. Building a base is beginning to have a significant retracement of the preceding move, obviously going from one 8188 down to one to a $0.80 a pound, that’s gigantic.

00;12;10;24 – 00;12;30;28
ANDY
Again, building that base of consolidation is the first real big step. I feel like to show the signs of a retracement. Fundamentally, it seems like a bit of a struggle. I’m not sure we’re there yet. Feel like exports seem to be someone lacking in. Certainly has a lot of good material about that feeling. I read up more, but technically speaking again, it feels like we have like kind of the inkling of a Elliott wave.

00;12;30;28 – 00;12;43;06
ANDY
And when I look at like futures out forward, you know, June were lower on the day but it’s still at 131. The futures curve is telling us that nonfat is potentially worth up in this area, which would be consistent with this Elliott wave.

00;12;43;08 – 00;12;48;01
CODY
Well, which would also be consistent to your, what, 65% break?

00;12;48;03 – 00;13;07;00
ANDY
Sure. I mean, this is if this is going to be like a wave three, then it should be a roughly 20% more. So you take like the distance of wave one and then multiply by 1.2 ish, know 1.3, like the third wave is usually the longest right? Right. So you take this one and just add more to it.

00;13;07;00 – 00;13;30;19
ANDY
I kind of add it again, roughly 20%. I’d say the breakout is about right here. That takes you back to 136 ish, which would be, you know, again, you’d retrace a healthy amount of this big break that we had. Futures are pointing to more upside in cash, obviously out forward. But now you’re starting to see like the actual spot markets itself build up Now new one anyway.

00;13;30;22 – 00;13;33;05
ANDY
But what do you think?

00;13;33;07 – 00;13;44;16
CODY
I mean what you have drawn here, it looks like non fact I have a little bit of a pop and kind of get back on that bullish train. I still think you got a break above 125. There that we haven’t saw in a little bit of time.

00;13;44;19 – 00;13;46;18
ANDY
You mean is it like right here you’re talking. Yeah.

00;13;46;20 – 00;14;06;12
CODY
Right there. Which if we’re going to be in the third wave, then that’s going to be the big testing point I think is a dollar 25. If we can break through and settle above that, then maybe it’s time to go test the dollar. $32.36, you know, area that you have on here, if that Elliott wave is coming into effect.

00;14;06;15 – 00;14;14;27
ANDY
Test it area testing. All right. So you’re saying we get like a 124 a close. It’s off to 132 136 and spot.

00;14;14;29 – 00;14;20;02
CODY
Yeah. You got to at 123 and a half call it we get to 124 gross at an open higher. Absolutely.

00;14;20;09 – 00;14;35;07
ANDY
Okay I’m I’m with you on that one I’m definitely with you I think we’re beginning more of like I said Elliott wave I think this is we’re gonna start to play that up. And if you look at some of this other stuff here, you know, RSI, for example, it’s trending higher, but it still isn’t really that close to being overbought.

00;14;35;08 – 00;14;55;14
ANDY
There’s room for that to continue moving higher before it’s considered like overbought. And, you know, we crossed zero and have maintained that cross for some time. So that’s those are both positive. They’re not giving you any sort of like warning signal like what we saw on Jan Milk earlier. So. All right. Last but not least, we sandwiched ourself with requests.

00;14;55;16 – 00;14;58;23
ANDY
S&P, I believe it was Wasco Fill that was talking about us.

00;14;58;25 – 00;15;00;03
CODY
Wasco filled.

00;15;00;05 – 00;15;05;05
ANDY
With this one. I mean we talked about the way with a megaphone last time, right?

00;15;05;08 – 00;15;05;25
CODY
Yep.

00;15;05;28 – 00;15;07;05
ANDY
That played out.

00;15;07;08 – 00;15;09;29
CODY
Played out exactly how you said it.

00;15;10;02 – 00;15;15;06
ANDY
In the win column. We’ll put that one on the win column. I did you read did you read Reminiscence of a stock operator? I think we.

00;15;15;06 – 00;15;21;25
CODY
Talked about that too. We did, unless other people agreed. Fantastic book, if you want to get a good reading list.

00;15;21;28 – 00;15;42;03
ANDY
But in on the Christmas list, you know you’re going to like you’re going to make a fire. You’re going to like you’re you know, you’re going to what’s that? Chestnuts roasting or whatever. Are you going to be roasting your chestnuts and reading your book? So, you know, in your house it has like one chair and like two flights, one fork, that’s somehow you have the ability to roast chestnuts like whatever works.

00;15;42;06 – 00;15;58;07
ANDY
This one’s tough because you have this big move, and the bears really haven’t done much with it. They just they’ve they’ve struggled. Now it’s it’s starting to kind of round out here a little bit. So I think the test would be, you know, this thing goes in test 4500 and then breaks through that. Then you’re in I think you’re in real trouble here.

00;15;58;07 – 00;16;19;16
ANDY
And I think the trouble would be we go right back into like below this area, back in the here in a hurry. All right. So you broke out of this trend and are maintaining that breakout, right? Because this I mean, like I said, this is a weak showing from the Bears. This huge is a big rally. Right. 41, 41 and a half, roughly 4185 up to a high of 4600.

00;16;19;19 – 00;16;44;24
ANDY
That’s a let’s just I think the big move I mean, let’s just do this real fast. Easy math. So 400 times 50 roughly. I mean, like each one tickets for one point is $50. So you talking about like, what is that $20,000 move on futures market? That’s quite the move. So, yeah, like I said, I mean this to me it feels bearish because you’re kind of you’re not maintaining this momentum.

00;16;45;01 – 00;16;46;28
CODY
This is kind of like petering out at this point.

00;16;47;05 – 00;17;07;14
ANDY
Right. Exactly. I think it’s a great way to put it. It’s kind of petering out here. You know, it moved to what I mean. Look at that, right? It went right to all these different points of resistance. Right. I think it’s first broke out from there. Yeah, well, just kind of petering around where it had originally touch these these touch points where.

00;17;07;17 – 00;17;08;03
ANDY
So that’s kind.

00;17;08;03 – 00;17;16;06
CODY
Of like the high of yesterday, 4597, the high where you have that circle drawn 45, 97 and a.

00;17;16;06 – 00;17;35;02
ANDY
Half. Yeah. I mean these do when you when you we’ve looked at this stuff before where when you break out of these needs longer term friends these touch points become magnets right so this would be the first big sign of weakness is that we’ve failed you know you’ve failed to break through here and then are now failing to stay over this one.

00;17;35;05 – 00;17;52;17
ANDY
Right. Right. So then the next, you know, the next, I guess, point of like interest would be, you know, where that really start to break out from over here, which is for about 4500, if it rolled over and broke through that, then you got to think, you know, this is the next where it really broke out from, from that backbone that we talked about.

00;17;52;20 – 00;18;07;02
ANDY
That’s the next kind of like the next stopping point, if you will, or point where we want to go. And then the big, big concern would be we go right back in on this downtrend. We go back into this downtrend, then I think you’ve got to be concerned, then be like go into testing the former low right down here.

00;18;07;04 – 00;18;18;13
ANDY
So, I mean, that’s a lot between now and then, obviously. But you’re starting to get your point, Peter, out. You’re running into these points, which is, again, a sign, a bit of a sign of weakness. Be careful.

00;18;18;13 – 00;18;24;09
CODY
You got to be careful. We do have a big year coming up ahead of us. So election year always gives us.

00;18;24;11 – 00;18;26;04
ANDY
Yeah. Are you running for president?

00;18;26;06 – 00;18;33;06
CODY
Maybe you want to talk about some volatility in this market. I would imagine that next year, the first part of next year is going to bring quite a bit of volatility.

00;18;33;08 – 00;18;39;15
ANDY
Mm hmm. Mm hmm. Mm hmm. I never I mean, that’s a bonus. An election year cash. Where’s the time go?

00;18;39;17 – 00;18;46;20
CODY
Well, the only reason I remember that is because look at gas prices starting to come down pretty heavily, especially during a big travel season right now.

00;18;46;22 – 00;18;51;15
ANDY
There you go. You know what? You should become president.

00;18;51;18 – 00;18;55;20
CODY
I’d love to sign me. Sign me to become.

00;18;55;23 – 00;18;57;24
ANDY
Cody for president. We could run that campaign.

00;18;57;26 – 00;19;02;09
CODY
We could still do tech talk from the Oval Office. So I think they’d like me.

00;19;02;11 – 00;19;07;02
ANDY
You’d be the boss. So, like, I would imagine you could.

00;19;07;05 – 00;19;09;00
CODY
I could do whatever I want.

00;19;09;02 – 00;19;11;00
ANDY
I mean, your El Presidente. I could.

00;19;11;00 – 00;19;13;27
CODY
Be you. Well, write me in. Write me on your balance.

00;19;13;29 – 00;19;16;05
ANDY
Page can be your vice president.

00;19;16;08 – 00;19;17;13
CODY
I’ll take it.

00;19;17;15 – 00;19;20;09
ANDY
Out of your cabinet. Like who’s going to be your cabinet?

00;19;20;11 – 00;19;22;02
CODY
We’ll put you on there.

00;19;22;05 – 00;19;28;09
ANDY
Good. I’m glad of getting some presidential consideration here. That’s all.

00;19;28;12 – 00;19;49;27
CODY
Well, it’s a pretty good chance today. We appreciate counsel email in asking about the S&P and corn. Yeah well I it in November so tomorrow we roll right into DC getting ready for the holiday season. We will still be back next Thursday with tech talk on who knows what charts. So if anyone has anything that they like see feel free to email call right into Andy and I’ll take a peek at them.

00;19;49;29 – 00;19;53;26
ANDY
Area Bridget Winner take all requests. We’re going to.

00;19;53;29 – 00;19;59;19
CODY
Take them off. But until then we have a fantastic weekend. Enjoy the cold weather. We’ll see you next time.

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The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-…
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod