In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss Nov feeders, the S&P 500, spot butter, and orange juice.

Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.

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00;00;00;17 – 00;00;08;21
VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and it’s not suitable for all. Investor contact provided in the statement is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;08;24 – 00;00;15;12
CODY
Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I’m Andy. This is Cody. We are back. Finally. He did it.

00;00;15;12 – 00;00;20;17
ANDY
Backwards. But you did it backwards like I’m Andy, your Cody.

00;00;20;23 – 00;00;21;13
CODY
I messed that up.

00;00;21;13 – 00;00;24;12
ANDY
Yeah, you did it backwards. All right.

00;00;24;14 – 00;00;26;06
CODY
From the top.

00;00;26;08 – 00;00;27;04
ANDY
Rama. Doc.

00;00;27;07 – 00;00;41;11
CODY
Hello, everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, This is Andy. We are happy to be back in the seats. As last week we had our esteemed colleague Jim MATTHEWS and Mando on to fill in for us for tech talk.

00;00;41;11 – 00;00;47;23
ANDY
So yeah, that was that was really nice of them. So good. And yesterday again, when I saw I had a boy like he crushed it.

00;00;47;25 – 00;00;49;08
CODY
Of really got on that show They.

00;00;49;08 – 00;00;52;19
ANDY
Did Jim did a bang up job you can hear him loud and clear.

00;00;52;26 – 00;00;59;16
CODY
Gasp Everyone loved it. Want to have him back on again soon. So we will try to facilitate that to the best of our abilities.

00;00;59;19 – 00;01;05;15
ANDY
Can we get the Mandalorian to come back? Yeah. I don’t know. He. He had to get in a spaceship and bounce. It’s true.

00;01;05;17 – 00;01;08;08
CODY
That’s true. But in the meantime.

00;01;08;11 – 00;01;16;05
ANDY
It leaves us with a couple of charts that we want to look at. And we also had one. We had a request and we did not. We did have a request from and saved the best for last. The request.

00;01;16;11 – 00;01;18;05
CODY
Our old friend Leon’s back.

00;01;18;08 – 00;01;38;23
ANDY
And back and it’s it’s a chart I’m sure nobody’s expecting either. Brenda, let’s get started. No here’s. We looked at March and may I believe last time we did so but this is November and it had a similar type trade, right, where it had this big break. We had that catalog report a couple of days ago, and that was week and it facilitated this break.

00;01;38;23 – 00;01;55;08
ANDY
And then we had this big sideways trade. And I think what we talked about for the March contract, which again looks very similar, that, you know, like the next step is like, do we get a close beneath? Like I think it was this low was what we’re looking at from this day, right? I started going to bang out this like the sideways trade.

00;01;55;08 – 00;02;12;03
ANDY
And you know, in order for the market to continue to break you, we needed to close between this low and then open lower. And then it could turn into like another like three candle like freefall. Right. And it just didn’t. Right. We just and what’s interesting about this is that you had this continued high and low just in their small.

00;02;12;06 – 00;02;31;07
ANDY
Right. But it’s you know, it’s almost like stair stepping itself up. And then today you have this breakout and now you’re above this 200 day moving average. So the market clearly didn’t like being below 200 day. And now it’s like it’s it’s almost like in jeopardy of having like this big now push back to like 250. I mean, it’s such a wicked market.

00;02;31;09 – 00;02;48;03
CODY
That’s exactly what I drew on mine, too, By the way, on my chart here, the only thing that makes me nervous about potentially more downside is we did the same, almost the exact same thing at the beginning of October. Start to climb ourselves back up and then promptly fell off and resold down to 235.

00;02;48;04 – 00;02;49;01
ANDY
You talk about right here.

00;02;49;05 – 00;03;08;07
CODY
Exactly. I mean, it’s a more pronounced move right now what’s happening. And we are above the 200 day moving average. But if you look back, it’s almost, almost the same move here, right there we were at 252 and we couldn’t really get a settled below. There are 250 excuse me, and bounced higher and then just came right back down.

00;03;08;07 – 00;03;09;28
CODY
That’s the only thing that really stuck out to me.

00;03;09;28 – 00;03;32;25
ANDY
I think. I think the big tell there in is I trying to zoom as much as I can, but the big tell there is you have the open here is to 5365 this open is to 52 to 7553 575 was too close. So that close to 33 575, the open was to 5365. So the open was slightly higher than the close.

00;03;33;01 – 00;03;50;24
ANDY
Right. So it’s technically engulfing candle like this candle engulfed like the open in the close of the previous candle. So the attempt to break out was I mean, they basically pump the brakes on that as hard as they could. So I think if you’re going to have that here, you know, that would be like, I guess like the big tell there, Right.

00;03;50;29 – 00;04;12;07
ANDY
Like if if tomorrow where we get now three bucks, 330 tomorrow, we’re down like four or something or we just completely engulfed like that news. So it’s now, I mean if you got too close here today and then open higher, you know, that’s like, like now you’re talking about getting back in all this junk because look at all this.

00;04;12;09 – 00;04;19;05
ANDY
All this. You’re like the market doesn’t have a problem consolidating around the status of the area. 252 1855.

00;04;19;08 – 00;04;21;02
CODY
Lot of sideways move right there.

00;04;21;04 – 00;04;38;09
ANDY
Yeah. And I mean look at how quickly it accelerated through this price range. Exactly. Yet let’s see if we get a close here open higher tomorrow. I think it’s it’s just a straight shot back and all this noise because clearly the market didn’t like being around this price level. It didn’t like it here back in early June, late June, and it didn’t like it here.

00;04;38;11 – 00;04;56;25
ANDY
So, yeah, I meant and you think about to like the market has been on such a tear like there’s so much volatility baked into like a potential price movement here. Yeah. So yeah it’s, this is, this is definitely an interesting one. It’s got the potential to especially since it had this nice little base that it built so you get a close here, open higher tomorrow.

00;04;56;25 – 00;05;11;03
ANDY
It’s certainly the potential to go rally to 55. I guess the question is, does this turn into one giant and is it is there enough time even for that for November? You wanna start looking at like a march, you know, to work how you want to handle that you know that.

00;05;11;03 – 00;05;19;17
CODY
Week tomorrow so it’s only Thursday it’s Thursday about 1130 Eastern, 1030 Central. So what is going to be another big telling day for cattle?

00;05;19;19 – 00;05;22;03
ANDY
Okay. Especially after that.

00;05;22;06 – 00;05;30;08
CODY
So I g I drove mine a little bit different. I did mine off of the off of the highs. So we had a little bit longer.

00;05;30;10 – 00;05;32;01
ANDY
Like there.

00;05;32;03 – 00;05;33;05
CODY
Yeah.

00;05;33;08 – 00;05;35;01
ANDY
So that’s a good start.

00;05;35;01 – 00;05;36;23
CODY
We haven’t quite broken out of there yet.

00;05;36;26 – 00;05;55;06
ANDY
Okay, fair enough. As long as you’re consistent, right, As long as you’re consistent. So you’re using in this case I was using the closes rather than the highs. So here and here. But the key is the consistency. So you’re not using like you’re using the highs of those days rather close. So it does line up all of a better.

00;05;55;12 – 00;06;19;04
ANDY
So I guess if we see a breakout here, meaning like let’s say we rally above the trend line you have and then open higher either way that gets like there’s a potential here to really get this market moving back and retrace some of this break. So a great interesting one. Speaking of one that is on everybody’s mind at the macro level, S&P was not.

00;06;19;06 – 00;06;23;12
CODY
Last on this was looked at. It wasn’t looking so bullish.

00;06;23;15 – 00;06;45;16
ANDY
And you’re still in this downtrend right Right. It started back in like what, August, early August. I guess the only thing about it is that it tried to get in, it got oversold here and then is climbing itself back out of it. So there’s room here on some of the secondary stuff to keep going up. Right. Like you could theoretically get back into this like 4400 level and still not be like overbought.

00;06;45;18 – 00;07;02;19
ANDY
But I think the real test is whether or not you’re going to break out of this downtrend because it’s been tested a few times, didn’t get back to it even right here. Right. And I think if we looked at I think you and I were looking at like the weekly piece, that’s the weekly like what I’ve learned is that you want to defer more to like longer term charts.

00;07;02;21 – 00;07;18;02
ANDY
The weekly is I mean, that’s like we’re like, you look at it here. This was last week’s close. That looks terrible, but not so fast. Right? So that’s I mean, that’s you get a close there. I mean, that could that could lead to more strength.

00;07;18;05 – 00;07;21;04
CODY
Is that an engulfing candle that we’re in right now?

00;07;21;07 – 00;07;25;06
ANDY
It sure looks like it’s trying. I mean like a true in government would be would have opened lower.

00;07;25;06 – 00;07;27;10
CODY
Right. Okay. This sounds kind of like.

00;07;27;13 – 00;07;45;10
ANDY
So it’s more of I think the term is piercing line where, you know, you take a shot at breaking and then come back very aggressively either way. I mean, like I said, you had just look at that. That was last week’s close. Looks terrible for that. Two candles preceding that that couldn’t settle near their highs right at the bottom.

00;07;45;13 – 00;08;06;02
ANDY
Basically the same price to and then breaks and now you’re basically retracing that and then some so that I mean this looks I mean it looks like it wants to take a shot at breaking getting back in the least testing this again is again you could go Tess’s downtrend to get rid of this line. You can test this downtrend and still be like trending lower.

00;08;06;05 – 00;08;19;23
ANDY
Right. We have broken through that so we could rally know. It seems like they’ve got a bit of a runway here to at least go back and test this area right on. So now they will retire. Yet, who knows? Sometimes it’s a mystery.

00;08;19;25 – 00;08;20;07
CODY
Someday.

00;08;20;10 – 00;08;40;24
ANDY
This is a one year one. We want to go back to their exposure of the spot butter on a weekly. So we originally filled this big gap, right? So this has done that along the way. They made some little guys that still have some room to go yesterday. I mean, they were just what were we, down 13 and a half cents.

00;08;40;27 – 00;09;00;06
ANDY
Real trades. We were up. Yeah, like we were up. And I think one day earlier this week, now we’re back down. So, I mean, the volatility here, it’s just it’s it’s ridiculous. But you definitely have this gap that I think just the futures are certainly saying needs to go get sold. Correct. I think that’s going to be the next step probably here pretty soon.

00;09;00;10 – 00;09;05;07
CODY
Well, if you take spot down the same way today that you did yesterday, we’re going to be at $3.

00;09;05;10 – 00;09;18;15
ANDY
Three bucks for sure. And that’s like if you said that was going to happen, I’d absolutely sure that makes sense. Yeah. So I think we got to go fill this gap and then, you know, I think we it’s this isn’t like an inverted B bottom. What do we call like a house or something like that? That’s right.

00;09;18;18 – 00;09;19;27
CODY
Steep of a house.

00;09;19;29 – 00;09;41;24
ANDY
People house. So we’re going have a stable house formation and my assumption is, is that you just come back and go back into this like grind, right? Like futures are telling us that cash needs to come down to like around here kind of in this area. But, you know, my experience, at least most of the time, cash futures converge at some degree.

00;09;42;01 – 00;10;02;22
ANDY
You know, it doesn’t have to be like a meeting in the middle perfectly. But it’s it’s I feel like it’s somewhat rare to see cash just completely fall out of that. And futures basically sit there and wait for cash to get there. So I guess gut feeling as we get back down into this area. So let’s get first maybe get some trade and then get back into this area of consolidation and start to actually trade a little bit more.

00;10;02;22 – 00;10;14;26
ANDY
And we’ll see what each of you from there. But yeah, Butters, this is just yikes volatile. Is that a new for me is I’d like a new chart formation that you’re going to like start to use this house.

00;10;14;26 – 00;10;21;06
CODY
I think we need to use a CPA house. Right. It’s kind of what it looks like. Unless somebody has a better definition of what that is.

00;10;21;09 – 00;10;40;18
ANDY
Stable house works for me. One of these people, House Frame or something like that. I mean, there’s another one you’re working on too. It’s called like the Sparrow’s Tail. I think this parasail formation, we’re just coming. So it’s coming. It’s coming next. So that’s coming. But yeah, I mean, I think we all agree the butler needs to fill this gap and then make a shot at trading in this range right here.

00;10;40;18 – 00;10;52;11
ANDY
But again, that would imply, though, we’re still the futures need to rally if we get if we simply go back here and trade sideways because the futures are still discounted that raise the price. So this one what came at request right.

00;10;52;13 – 00;10;53;22
CODY
From our good friend client.

00;10;53;24 – 00;11;01;21
ANDY
Which one is this? It’s orange juice or orange juice. What is that? You’re a variety. Yikes. What do you take here?

00;11;01;24 – 00;11;07;14
CODY
I mean. Well, so I think what he had asked about was the monthly. Right.

00;11;07;16 – 00;11;08;22
ANDY
Monthly. Okay. Say a lot.

00;11;08;22 – 00;11;09;06
CODY
So he just.

00;11;09;13 – 00;11;14;14
ANDY
Just the Daily Quarterly. Okay, so monthly OJ. Yikes.

00;11;14;21 – 00;11;19;02
CODY
So pretty much straight up, right? I mean, look at that curve there.

00;11;19;05 – 00;11;25;04
ANDY
It’s true. What happened was they’re just like that, just Florida. Like there’s no more oranges anymore.

00;11;25;05 – 00;11;39;13
CODY
I don’t know. I think that’s what everyone’s trying to figure out at this point. So there’s the monthly orange juice chart, which for all given purposes, looks pretty bullish right now, except for that little red guy hanging out on the right hand side there.

00;11;39;16 – 00;12;07;01
ANDY
Yeah. Now, this is just this one stuff. I mean, because this is the first time it looks like since this rally began that you opened within the range and the preceding candle was lower. Right? So that’s I mean, that’s that’s obviously a first sign of weakness. Right? So then the question is, do you get new buying here to support this move here?

00;12;07;08 – 00;12;20;04
ANDY
And I guess the short answer for me is, no, it doesn’t look good. What’s hard about this, too, is that this is only the second day of the new month. There’s a lot more information in this candle right here. And there’s this one.

00;12;20;07 – 00;12;31;21
CODY
But I think going back to the daily, what I found very interesting is yesterday closing below the 20 day moving average for the first time in, what, since June. July.

00;12;31;27 – 00;12;53;09
ANDY
Yeah. Reading since June. So yeah, I mean this I mean this one looks like it’s a in a lot weaker right And now you have you know the momentum here too. I mean like can you look at what happened here. Right. Like it tried to come back to the previous high and failed to do so here we’re just looking at the secondary stuff.

00;12;53;11 – 00;13;04;28
ANDY
Forget about the chart for a second. Just looking at the secondary stuff. It tried it tried to get up to the four I here and failed to do so pretty miserably. Now it’s crossed zero for the first time since September.

00;13;05;00 – 00;13;34;16
CODY
Now here’s a question. The secondary charts look at looking at momentum. I think with we bottomed out here, if my cursor is correct back in June at about -21, 2175. Yeah. On the momentum chart would you if you’re essentially right now looking at this and saying, okay, when is the short falling here going to stop? Would you look for the momentum to test -2175 if it breaks there, that’s even more bearish?

00;13;34;16 – 00;13;36;29
CODY
Or would you how would you look that momentum piece at that point?

00;13;36;29 – 00;13;51;02
ANDY
I guess I think you hit the nail on the head. I mean, it’s going to go Tesla. It sure feels like it wants to go test that right there, which would imply further weakness in price. Yeah, I think it wants to go Tesla and if it breaks through, it continues to break. Then that’s, you know, that’s, that’s another sign of weakness.

00;13;51;02 – 00;14;09;26
ANDY
And then you know, and this, this one right here, this RSI is giving you like some runway to do that right? You have this kind of just this dead space between 50 and 30. But, you know, you broke you already broke through some previous lows there. Right. So if I can I do this. Look at this.

00;14;09;29 – 00;14;11;18
CODY
Bar. I didn’t see that.

00;14;11;20 – 00;14;32;02
ANDY
The tough one here. Is that it? Try to get to overbought a few times. Right. But then once it crossed into like if this was just its own price chart right here, this is this is weak. Like this is a sign of weakness right here, this breakout. So it’s got like you said, it’s got room. Like you really wouldn’t consider this oversold until it gets back below 30 in that blue line.

00;14;32;04 – 00;14;35;05
ANDY
That’s there’s a trade down there. And when was the last time it even did that?

00;14;35;05 – 00;14;39;09
CODY
I was just going to say the other thing back in July of 2022.

00;14;39;12 – 00;15;05;21
ANDY
Yeah. I mean, this this market has not been oversold for a long time, so it’s certainly overdue. And now you’re getting so then the next step would be breaking through here, Right. Which isn’t that far away. Right. And you go back to the chart now and you you you get a clear rejection of the high, pretty wicked and then open lower the next day and then gap lower the next day.

00;15;05;21 – 00;15;11;21
ANDY
This is today’s session. This has almost like it’s this definitely has more room to break.

00;15;11;23 – 00;15;12;24
CODY
There are a couple of ways you.

00;15;12;27 – 00;15;27;10
ANDY
Can you can get a secondary stuff telling you it’s got more room break question is where I mean is that I would assume he wants to go test the 50 day right so test the 50 day if you can you could get a close to that and then open lower the next day and then you get you could turn into a bit of a freefall.

00;15;27;17 – 00;15;32;28
CODY
So interesting enough, on 100 day moving average is where that first gap is at about 49 to 94.

00;15;32;29 – 00;15;53;19
ANDY
You said the other day, yeah, you can make that change real fast moving up. Okay. So you were right here, correct? Yeah, they yeah, like that. These these start to become back. I think they start to become magnets. But again, like, the secondary stuff is telling you that there’s room still to go. Now runways clear front to look out.

00;15;53;22 – 00;16;08;22
CODY
All right well that’s going to do it for another episode of tech talk Plan. We appreciate you writing in estimate orange juice hadn’t looked at this one. And one second, if anyone has any charts, they’d like Andy Knight to look at, we’d appreciate calling. Text us, send us an email however you want to do it. We’ll be happy to look at them.

00;16;08;22 – 00;16;13;16
CODY
But until then, everyone have a fantastic weekend. Even better week. We’ll see you on Thursday.

00;16;13;23 – 00;16;14;04
ANDY
Yes.

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