In this special Halloween edition of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss Dec soybean meal, the S&P 500, March feeder cattle, and Dec class III.
Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.
Charts sourced from Ever.Ag Platform.
[bg_collapse color=”#004053″ icon=”arrow” expand_text=”Show Transcript” collapse_text=”Hide Transcript” ]
00;00;00;03 – 00;00;09;24
VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all. Investor contact provided in the segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
00;00;09;26 – 00;00;34;03
CODY
Hello and welcome to another edition of Tech Talk. Brought to you by ABA Rag. This is your weekly newsfeed for all things market tech. Each week we bring you updates on the markets with unique perspectives from an amazing team of analysts with the intention of helping dairy, livestock and grain hedgers manage their risk. I’m your host, Jim Mathews, reporting from the Chicago office.
00;00;34;05 – 00;01;08;14
CODY
With me today from the outer rim of Mandalore, The Mandalorian team. How are we doing today? Fantastic. So, Cody and and you’re actually gone this week and asked me to step in and I kindly obliged for those two awesome gentlemen. Of course I did. So with that being said, we’ve got Mando here. We’ve got four different charts that people have asked us to look at, and that is exactly what we’re going to do for this episode of Tech Talk.
00;01;08;21 – 00;01;18;19
CODY
So, Mando, without further ado, should we jump in to the first chart? Looks like we have this meal. All right. So a little December soybean meal action here.
00;01;18;23 – 00;01;21;16
ANDY
Let’s go. What do you think here, boss?
00;01;21;19 – 00;01;30;23
CODY
Well, we tested some of those those highs. The past couple of days and couldn’t quite break through was at 440 the top.
00;01;30;26 – 00;01;55;09
ANDY
It tried. That looks like 437. It couldn’t get through pretty close for 30 niner. Didn’t get through, didn’t get as high as the outer rim up there, but it got pretty close. I don’t know, like what’s that Something that sticks out to me. So we always look at the momentum, right? And then relative strength and it, it, it didn’t get the same peak that it you know, this is what, back in like mid-June.
00;01;55;16 – 00;02;09;11
ANDY
So and if it starts to roll over a little bit, this is that’s a sign that it sounds like a double top, which isn’t a secondary indicator. Right. So I think you gotta be a little bit careful, I guess if I was long, I’d want to be at least, like, buying putts or maybe like getting out of sutures and buying calls or something like that.
00;02;09;14 – 00;02;35;22
ANDY
Just had a hack at the most that has. Right. And it did it where now it’s getting itself into oversold territory as you look down the other side down here. Right. It broke through. It came back, did it again. If it starts to trickle lower beyond that just tells you that it got overbought. And then, you know, if it comes back below that red line and stays there, you know, that’s another sign of weakness and momentum slowing down as it does then I think you got to look at like this convergence of these moving averages.
00;02;35;22 – 00;02;47;21
ANDY
This is 2050 and the 200 day, you’re starting to kind of converge them in a little bit more like galaxy pattern or something like that. And it’s just starting to cut. Like I would imagine if we all over you, that becomes a magnet.
00;02;47;23 – 00;02;50;05
CODY
That’s down at what for about 400.
00;02;50;08 – 00;03;06;11
ANDY
Three. I mean, little chips, as you know, as we move throughout like the rest of the contracts, you know, like the life of the contract. Right. Premium for the most part. Like you’re getting some convergence there. I think that becomes a magnet to roll over. So you get 400. That’s also a price to where the market clearly took off from three 9400.
00;03;06;18 – 00;03;08;08
ANDY
This has been a heck of a run here.
00;03;08;10 – 00;03;19;27
CODY
It has. But there’s also I mean, the past couple days, we’ve had a lot of intra day volatility higher to lower. And I mean, not breaking too hard for the past couple of sessions, honestly.
00;03;20;00 – 00;03;34;20
ANDY
That’s why I think you got to be a little bit careful if you want to slip and get short. I think you need to get it close. Like, I think you got to get below this, like all this noise, right? Because look at this. We right here for 28 broke once it took off once it got through that price, it started to accelerate.
00;03;34;23 – 00;03;50;16
ANDY
And then, you know, it’s just a price that the market never really wanted to sit still from. So I think if you got back below for 20, let’s see it closed for 20 or lower and then open lower after that, I think it becomes a bit of a freak free fall. But I think you have to move relatively quickly to four bucks.
00;03;50;19 – 00;04;13;27
ANDY
Yeah. So yeah, I mean it’s it’s a little bit of do or die time, right? And you know, even if it did that, it still wouldn’t necessarily I think you’ve got a pretty steep like you still have some room right for if you wanted to start from like right here you saw room to break so yeah I mean it looks like you could have a bit of a step back, reset your long features, maybe consider buying puts against those, especially if you’ve got some from gym.
00;04;13;27 – 00;04;18;01
ANDY
You were telling people to buy the stuff. I was able to catch your episode from the spaceship.
00;04;18;04 – 00;04;22;16
CODY
I was. I was off. If you watch the the grain feeds every week.
00;04;22;18 – 00;04;30;05
ANDY
Broken up across the galaxy, I get to watch this stuff all over the place. Going back. Yeah, we.
00;04;30;07 – 00;04;37;08
CODY
Did. We told people to get a nearby puts in case you are long get in here buy puts, protect what you have built into those futures.
00;04;37;10 – 00;04;44;27
ANDY
There you go. Speaking of buying puts. Oh, yes. What S&P lost was.
00;04;44;29 – 00;04;46;29
CODY
Not looking good for you or me. Not.
00;04;47;01 – 00;05;06;26
ANDY
Not my mom. Yeah, I mean this. So this is like this. The longer we draw this one, I mean, this is not playing out the way we like. Are those two turkeys? What does it mean out of their names? Cody? Andy, they’re going to do this. Yeah, I’m wrong. Yeah. I mean, it’s this is this is a weekly S&P, right?
00;05;06;26 – 00;05;23;11
ANDY
So typically what you lean more towards the higher longer timeframes when you’re looking at charts and then again drove down a little bit on a smaller timeframe this kind of weekly today like either way I mean, neither of them look great, right? I mean, it looked like we were going to take a shot at that, making this like the Elliott Wave type move.
00;05;23;17 – 00;05;43;00
ANDY
Yeah, maybe we still do. But you know, you now you have a close on a weekly basis below its 52 week moving average after assuming we close this year or lower tomorrow. Correct. That’s that’s not looking good. I mean that looks like that wants to now to go test this this would be 200 weekly moving average right. The green one that’s number one.
00;05;43;03 – 00;05;50;02
ANDY
But if we look at I mean, this daily, it’s I mean, yes, you are pretty.
00;05;50;02 – 00;05;50;26
CODY
Bearish.
00;05;50;28 – 00;06;11;20
ANDY
Yeah. I mean, you have like a nice clear downtrend. Right. And you you could theoretically move higher here and still be trending lower. Right. Let’s say you had like a little bit of a retracement, I guess if you wanted to say like we were going to break out of this down Penny, probably to clear this for 40, 20 number or square 20 number, this is number 44 and quarter ish, 4430.
00;06;11;22 – 00;06;27;11
ANDY
So you did that and it converged with this downtrend here, right around here? Yep. Okay. Maybe you have something to talk about, but I mean, until then, the bolts are at the bears are they’re in control. We really not looking so hot. Quick peek at the monthly. Yikes.
00;06;27;13 – 00;06;29;27
CODY
Doesn’t look any better.
00;06;30;00 – 00;06;45;15
ANDY
The monthly really doesn’t look good now. I mean, the monthly. I mean, you have a clear lot lower. Hi. Yeah. Yikes. We don’t like I go back to this one. So, like, I think it was 2011th April 2011.
00;06;45;22 – 00;06;45;29
CODY
There you.
00;06;46;02 – 00;07;08;29
ANDY
Go. Yeah, I remember this one. I remember this one because cash dash cheese was like here or something right up here when it started, like right around this move. And then catch these one like this the more like this. But this, guys. But yeah, I mean, like, this is a great example of m lower high end information, right.
00;07;08;29 – 00;07;20;23
ANDY
And how nasty it could get. Yeah. Let’s go back and look real quick at that monthly shaping up to be very similar look at.
00;07;20;25 – 00;07;26;05
CODY
It really is that information is definitely taking its formation here.
00;07;26;08 – 00;07;39;18
ANDY
This could be quite a trick or treat here. I don’t know. This could be quite the trick or treat. This one is coming up. This one came all over the galaxy. People are just definitely wanted to talk about this one March seeders.
00;07;39;20 – 00;07;42;01
CODY
Talk about a volatile market here two off and.
00;07;42;01 – 00;08;02;12
ANDY
This is yet was is right I guess the only thing that sticks out to me that could they could prevent it from continuing to break is that it’s it’s clearly crossed if you look at the RSI I here it’s clearly across the oversold territory the thing about that is though, until it crosses back above that blue line, then momentum is still relative like this.
00;08;02;14 – 00;08;20;21
ANDY
It’s still weak, right? It’s it’s kind of like a that breaks through that blue line is it’s like a warning if you’re short. But if it doesn’t come back, that’s that’s it’s still you maintain shorts. It’s just saying that this is unsustainable price action right here which I mean you can certainly make the argument. The problem is is that is that this is I drew this line beforehand.
00;08;20;21 – 00;08;41;26
ANDY
This is 236 1002 36 is the low here from this is this is earlier this week we had that Catalan theater report on Friday opened pretty weak to start the week and now this is from the 24th was two days ago. Yeah this low is two 3645 this low this day right here, if you get it close at 236 and a quarter.
00;08;41;28 – 00;08;48;24
ANDY
So anything below that, get close there and then open lower the next time. I mean I think you get three more candles like this.
00;08;48;27 – 00;08;52;15
CODY
Kind of like a bearish flag formation. Honestly. Right.
00;08;52;17 – 00;09;01;19
ANDY
I mean, looking for that, it sure feels like it could be a little bumpy. Dicey, little dicey. But this is the way this.
00;09;01;19 – 00;09;05;08
CODY
Is the way. This is the way is the way.
00;09;05;10 – 00;09;13;13
ANDY
This is the way. Yeah. Last night least so closely. What do you want to talk about here, Jim? I mean.
00;09;13;15 – 00;09;20;10
CODY
After the session that we had today, you do we actually settle above the lows from previous Look in here.
00;09;20;13 – 00;09;41;02
ANDY
Yeah, we did. Okay, if this is today, settle on 44. Right. Okay. But I mean, it’s what’s interesting that you took a shot at the new lows. Had a lower cash session, too, if I’m not mistaken. Right? Yes. So we were hopeless. Yeah. The barrel was down one and three quarters. Right. The up that off the low the barrel did settle lower.
00;09;41;03 – 00;09;58;16
ANDY
So you had a lower session technically. But yeah, I mean, it’s every time we get down around this price of 1745, 1740, the market just does not like to be below that price now. So it’s similar to what we were looking at in Smeal. Right. If you’ve been short, it’s you might want to think about liquidating or at the very least converting.
00;09;58;16 – 00;10;19;26
ANDY
You’re out, you know, converting your risk to puts by buying calls or scanning futures and just buying puts out. Right. Only caveat to this is that, you know, the secondary stuff is not telling you that it’s oversold yet right here there’s still room to go in. Really. You just crossed into negative momentum here. So like, you’re kind of like it’s like do or die time.
00;10;19;26 – 00;10;20;25
ANDY
So this contract.
00;10;20;27 – 00;10;28;02
CODY
Was almost like, if we’re going to have more of a push lower, you’re going to need to settle below 1730 to really accelerate that.
00;10;28;02 – 00;10;54;09
ANDY
Yeah, And I think it’s going to need I think it’s going to take a cash market really, you know, continuing to break. So it’s like if you’re selling days now, you’re selling the cash market that correct? Zachary Cash on 17 bucks is no premium. 36 Why? That’s not you know here at 1745 17 and ass I mean you’re adding in a pretty standard maybe as our premiums it’s arguable argument you can argue that these are really as much of a premium as at all so yeah I mean you need to see further weakness in gosh what does it take?
00;10;54;09 – 00;11;10;14
ANDY
I think multiple sellers in both obviously the price action and then, you know, let’s see, you got that and then you got close in the new lows and then open lower. That could get ugly. So you’ve got some room here to get into oversold territory. So but this is just kind of giving you like a like, hey, like it’s like a warning.
00;11;10;14 – 00;11;18;06
ANDY
Like, you know, if you’ve been short, you may want to think about liquidating or at the very least buying calls, doing something to mitigate that risk.
00;11;18;08 – 00;11;25;10
CODY
Right. Anything about December Class three is we haven’t even started actually pricing this yet. Right. So, I mean, it’s weeks, right? Yeah, we have a while.
00;11;25;17 – 00;11;34;21
ANDY
So it’s another show I think I’ve seen in the spaceship when I’ve just been hanging around in this like Ocean of Stars. But it’s I call it Ball Guy.
00;11;34;24 – 00;11;37;11
CODY
Or our good friend Joe Schmidt and base.
00;11;37;11 – 00;11;42;17
ANDY
Slip is right Joe Schmidt go check out Joe Schmidt show learn a little bit more about BSR.
00;11;42;25 – 00;12;04;28
CODY
Well, Mando, we appreciate you coming on or coding into your gone go walking through a feed of a charge of this hopefully helping everyone else understand what those two handsome devils look at every single day of their lives. Now, if you would like to, our contact information is going to be on the screen. We would greatly appreciate your feedback.
00;12;05;00 – 00;12;39;27
CODY
That’s all for today. And we’ll see you next time on Tech Talk. Yeah, at YouTube. Yeah. Can you even tell? It is fantastic. This thing is hot and it’s like it’s so hot. Having a rug on my head is darn well gosh, welcome to Fiji. I’m all right. My other game is here, Jim. That.
[/bg_collapse]
The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-…
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod
