In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss spot nonfat, Feb class III and the S&P 500.
Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.
Charts sourced from Ever.Ag Platform.
[bg_collapse color=”#004053″ icon=”arrow” expand_text=”Show Transcript” collapse_text=”Hide Transcript” ]
00;00;00;17 – 00;00;08;21
VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and it’s not suitable for all. Investor contact provided in the statement is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
00;00;08;23 – 00;00;19;05
CODY
Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk Brand New Year. Same two Stooges doing tech talk. What are you doing?
00;00;19;08 – 00;00;19;29
ANDY
I’m good. How are you?
00;00;20;06 – 00;00;21;28
CODY
You thought I was going to go a different way with that, wouldn’t you?
00;00;21;29 – 00;00;26;18
ANDY
Happy New Year. Happy New Year. Happy New Year. New Year. New Year to you. How was your New Year’s?
00;00;26;24 – 00;00;28;06
CODY
New me Was is getting you.
00;00;28;08 – 00;00;31;21
ANDY
I mean, it was fine. I. Did you make it to midnight? I didn’t make it a big night.
00;00;31;26 – 00;00;33;02
CODY
Now, quarter to ten, I was in.
00;00;33;04 – 00;00;37;29
ANDY
Bed at 10 a.m.. What’s your what did you say your New Year’s resolution was this year?
00;00;38;01 – 00;00;40;14
CODY
I don’t have against them because they never work out.
00;00;40;17 – 00;00;59;21
ANDY
They never work out. It it said it was the kind of thing that it was like your New Year’s resolution should be to like for it to not work out. And so like, yeah, that’s right. So when it doesn’t work out, it will have actually worked out for you. So it’s like, it’s like, like right by you not having a New Year’s resolution, it’ll make it so you actually complete your New Year’s resolution.
00;00;59;23 – 00;01;01;20
CODY
So you always try.
00;01;01;23 – 00;01;03;11
ANDY
You’re off and running this year. That’s all.
00;01;03;11 – 00;01;04;24
CODY
I really Maybe you would go.
00;01;04;24 – 00;01;14;22
ANDY
Off and run it. Let’s go. Speaking of awesome running, potentially, we got Nancy. Didn’t touch anything, by the way. We haven’t a thing on this chart. Not the thing.
00;01;14;25 – 00;01;19;22
CODY
Didn’t touch it. Did not get down to my testing point or up to my test. I apologize.
00;01;19;24 – 00;01;21;09
ANDY
What do you think here, Richard?
00;01;21;12 – 00;01;25;27
CODY
Looks like it’s rounded out pretty good here in a while. What, a buck 15. Give or take me 116.
00;01;26;04 – 00;01;28;11
ANDY
It sure is. And you.
00;01;28;14 – 00;01;30;14
CODY
Have a chance to test 125.
00;01;30;17 – 00;01;48;15
ANDY
I still think that whole Elliott wave is in play, though, right? So we had this first wave. Second wave. We can measure this one as a third wave, right? About 120, 230% of the length of this one. So depending on where we break out from, let’s say we start to rock and roll from like right here. Yeah. And like again, we keep going back to it.
00;01;48;15 – 00;02;02;16
ANDY
But this is basically if you take this this whole move that we had 188 down to one on four gigantic move, retracing just a small portion of that takes you up to 136 which would be good that the end of voice three.
00;02;02;19 – 00;02;03;15
CODY
Is.
00;02;03;18 – 00;02;04;29
ANDY
This could get interesting.
00;02;05;01 – 00;02;18;24
CODY
It’s almost looking like what happened back in May where we just kind of Peter ground there and then it got extremely bearish down to 110 if you flip that on its head, it’s kind of reminiscent of what’s happening there. I kind of rounded out and fell down. Yeah.
00;02;18;26 – 00;02;21;21
ANDY
Yeah. yeah. Okay. Seriously?
00;02;21;24 – 00;02;27;19
CODY
Yeah. If you flip that right around, it looks a lot like what happened back in May-June.
00;02;27;22 – 00;02;48;03
ANDY
Yeah, I think at the very least, your test point is going to go get tested. Right. One, two, three and a half to 124, and then we’ll see if we can get through that. Then this whole like this one, 3618 led us this big retracement level comes into play. I feel like that would be, I guess, a surprise to the market, you know, like, where can we go?
00;02;48;03 – 00;03;04;26
ANDY
That would be like the biggest surprise, I would think is this. You know, we did see like go nuts. That goes and trades like a buck for me. But the chart wise, I mean, it’s got a nice little rounding out here. It’s dry and yeah, I mean, it broke out from this downward trend it’s had on here since late October and it’s Yeah, it broke out here open higher here.
00;03;04;26 – 00;03;20;27
ANDY
Not the biggest open item in a penny, but it’s silver and it’s still rounding out. So let’s kind of zoom in on this bad boy, Yeah. Cody’s test area 121 2370. It’s. Come in. We’re going to do it.
00;03;20;29 – 00;03;25;10
CODY
It looks like. I mean, it looks more bullish than bearish at this point.
00;03;25;16 – 00;03;28;11
ANDY
Is the hammer buy in? Like, what’s the first?
00;03;28;13 – 00;03;33;06
CODY
Here I go. Nonfat, nonfat. It seems to be a buy.
00;03;33;08 – 00;03;46;01
ANDY
man. Earthworms, jerk. It’s the first year of the new year. The hammer comes out and it’s just buying it. Just. That’s exciting. That’s exciting stuff. All right, well, let’s talk about something else that has been a little less exciting.
00;03;46;06 – 00;03;53;18
CODY
All right, So sue me. Weekly cheese. You and I have the exact same line drawn on here, the down here fan.
00;03;53;20 – 00;04;07;05
ANDY
And so, I mean, it’s coming to a head here. We continue to very steadily and slowly trend ourselves down to kind of this like tipping point here in this is we have this little itsy bitsy gap that one gets filled right here. Right.
00;04;07;07 – 00;04;09;18
CODY
I it has it, though.
00;04;09;20 – 00;04;12;01
ANDY
Hasn’t. Let’s Well, hang on a second, Richard.
00;04;12;04 – 00;04;19;01
CODY
138 six in our low over here at the end of this was 139 Oof!
00;04;19;03 – 00;04;21;03
ANDY
I mean it’s.
00;04;21;05 – 00;04;22;04
CODY
Close.
00;04;22;07 – 00;04;29;22
ANDY
It’s super close. I think you can call that. So let’s just go get this thing. I think you can call that sold. I mean, but that looks built to me.
00;04;29;24 – 00;04;30;19
CODY
All right.
00;04;30;21 – 00;04;54;13
ANDY
So still it is. So it’s getting to this point where it’s like if it breaks out, it breaks out. Right. But that’s I think that’s going to be like the first real like test for this markets, whether or not that actually breaks through this downward trend and then starts to go, yeah, we’ve seen a ton of volume and seen seeming here recently right now that we’ve gotten into this like call it like mid to low one forties area and we’re starting to see more clearly more buyers are showing up.
00;04;54;13 – 00;05;12;25
ANDY
I think late last week and even earlier this week we sort of see those like the depth and the bit of the barrel for example, like 135 on 556 on five seven up five 4839. So as clearly buy side interest in and around like this little area right here. I think what we need to see this first real material like break out of this downward trend.
00;05;12;27 – 00;05;19;05
CODY
On it just feels like we’re going to put in some more lower highs like we kind of have and just stair step our way back down personally.
00;05;19;08 – 00;05;32;02
ANDY
Could be like you could putt around here for another couple of weeks and still be within this downtrend, Right? We don’t even have to go lower. Right? You could just trade sideways and still technically be within this trend.
00;05;32;04 – 00;05;32;17
CODY
Exactly.
00;05;32;17 – 00;05;48;23
ANDY
So like, what we need to really see is and look, prices this, by the way. So let’s go take a quick look at like basically about 60 market instead of a traded 50 and then open like let’s say we settle into this as we could do it tomorrow. If we were up six, $0.07 on average tomorrow, then you break out of this trend, right?
00;05;48;24 – 00;06;04;25
ANDY
So it’s possible, but we need to see like the end of one of these candles, break through it and then open higher the next week. I think that’s coming given the way futures have been acting. Right. I mean, futures are certainly pricing in a pretty healthy rally here in the cash market. So I don’t know, I guess gut feeling is that they’re clearing out some inventory here.
00;06;04;25 – 00;06;19;27
ANDY
And then we’re going to we’re going to see the wealthy pop up here. But got to break to this trend first. Got to do it. Got to do it. And like I said, it’s coming to a head here. So you want to use where this gap itself is. Like, you know, you’re like the bottom end of this. I can certainly use that if you want to be more conservative and say we need to get down to here first.
00;06;20;00 – 00;06;35;14
ANDY
So we’re breaking out either way, it seems like it’s approaching a price point where we keep trading this volume. You can see, I think, a breakthrough through this trend. So we’ll see. And I’ll just go learn about bases loaded, by the way, or learned about jam pricing, bases loaded, jam, certainly trading like we’re going to see a little bit of a pop, right?
00;06;35;16 – 00;06;38;11
CODY
Yeah. it definitely is. Definitely is.
00;06;38;11 – 00;06;42;02
ANDY
So that’s that’s on its third week of pricing this week and it’s next one.
00;06;42;04 – 00;06;43;12
CODY
Plus three.
00;06;43;14 – 00;06;47;17
ANDY
A class three. What do you think of this thing core.
00;06;47;19 – 00;06;49;17
CODY
It’s looking like it wants to make a rally.
00;06;49;20 – 00;07;16;29
ANDY
So a couple of things to start this blue line. This is RSI, this blue line, it’s crossed a few times. It’s teased us before and so it’s crossed into oversold, came back, crossed again in back. Now it’s done it a few times. Right. And see, I don’t think you can use that as like the key indicator. But what’s interesting to me is that it’s been the momentum on this one is I mean, I only think you can really like use this line because it was so it wasn’t there for very long.
00;07;16;29 – 00;07;46;05
ANDY
Right. So if you own that, like the middle of November, the momentum in February has been lower since the middle of October. Right. That’s when you actually had more than one trading day above zero. So it really has been negative momentum. I mean, it’s clear statements with this huge and so $3 break, right? You’re starting to get some of the secondary stuff incline a little bit like you said, RSI has crossed before two times in oversold.
00;07;46;05 – 00;08;07;14
ANDY
So don’t get too excited about that. But the momentum piece is starting to actually see just a hair of like like right here, right breaks comes back, tries to break again, sales to do so and has now crossed into a point we haven’t really seen in a while. So the big the big piece would be crossing zero and what I thought you were going to say though.
00;08;07;17 – 00;08;08;17
CODY
W.
00;08;08;19 – 00;08;09;20
ANDY
If the winners.
00;08;09;22 – 00;08;12;16
CODY
There, four winners. I was looking at it. I was looking at it.
00;08;12;22 – 00;08;15;10
ANDY
Is it is it propping itself up? I mean, it’s trying.
00;08;15;12 – 00;08;23;29
CODY
It’s trying. But every time I mean, we’re trying to get that rally move. All right. Back down apart. And then I look at the momentum and honestly, right here.
00;08;24;01 – 00;08;33;03
ANDY
It right it’s right here and couldn’t do it. It never got the momentum to cross over zero. So I think that was a big issue. Right. And then you broke through and then see later alligator.
00;08;33;04 – 00;08;42;24
CODY
Looking at the RSI, it kind of feels like that same kind of deal where it’s it’s trying and it gets up there and it gives us a little bit of a life, you’ll call it, and then just kind of falls right right back down apart.
00;08;42;26 – 00;08;56;19
ANDY
Well, what I think is interesting about said here is that at 15 and something like 15 and a half, 1560, it’s not that big of a premium depending on what kind of premiums you see. And you know, any bizarre yen could talk to Joe about that. But it’s not that big of a premium. It starts pricing in two weeks.
00;08;56;19 – 00;09;18;10
ANDY
But I think the difference between here, this move and what we’re seeing now is that you’re actually starting to make an attempt at put in a high or low meaning like this low right here. It’s kind of grinding itself out just above that one. Right. And so before it was a pretty quick like, no, no. So that’s there, Richard.
00;09;18;12 – 00;09;32;03
ANDY
Maybe you get a big downtick tomorrow and we’ll see later. But it’s at least taking a shot at it, right? So like, if you’re looking to own something that said, you at least know that like around 15 and a half, I mean, what’s this low here if you really want to be, I guess, the most conservative about it.
00;09;32;03 – 00;09;47;12
ANDY
Right. But I mean, this low is 1547. You know, you have a pretty good indicator of like where you’d be wrong. Right. But let’s say you buy 60 two’s here. You know, you’re wrong. It’s like going to a new low, which would be below 1547. Kind of feels like the market is a little bit touchy to the upside.
00;09;47;15 – 00;10;01;13
ANDY
So we’ve had this big break. You seen this happen in the past. We had this big break and you just get like either short covering or maybe as a producer, you’re not going to see as much selling at 15 and a half just because you tell me, is it sitting in after on milk work on Costco Dairy?
00;10;01;15 – 00;10;14;04
CODY
No, I think I mean, we talked about it at 1615. I think you’d ask where people are going to be selling at that point. I said, no. I mean, it doesn’t work for hardly anybody in the country. I don’t think in dollars 1550, a dollar and lower is definitely not going to work.
00;10;14;08 – 00;10;16;27
ANDY
I think maybe you lose like natural selling that shows up.
00;10;16;29 – 00;10;17;15
CODY
Exactly.
00;10;17;15 – 00;10;34;19
ANDY
For like I should say, sales show. You’ve got like at least an attempt. So at the very least you take a shot at it. Know that you’re wrong down 1547, the stuff you’re buying here, what’s into new lows or something like that. I think the risk reward from this point, owning it is a pretty fair some bad luck for me.
00;10;34;19 – 00;10;51;04
ANDY
The big test would be is if we saw this momentum actually cross zero and maintain that and start to trend up again. That hasn’t happened really for some time. I mean, I think you can augment this one because it just seems like it was kind of here today, gone tomorrow. It really didn’t they didn’t get any confirmation from the breakout there.
00;10;51;04 – 00;11;08;02
ANDY
So I think you can limit this one and say we haven’t had any positive momentum since October, which really is true. Yeah. You look at there’s that. There it is right there. And then poof, gone to. So yeah, I mean I think it’s worth taking a shot at that. Then the question is let’s say we start to rally what you want to do is it here.
00;11;08;04 – 00;11;23;28
ANDY
This is basically very close to 16 bucks right now. You’re starting to talk about like, what is cheese? Are we getting the subsequent rally in cheese, A support that starts pricing that next week, the week after. But it’s certainly acting like you could give it a shot. I love this hammer worthy, but it’s giving you.
00;11;24;01 – 00;11;25;27
CODY
All of the hammer off on this one for right now.
00;11;25;27 – 00;11;34;08
ANDY
Waiting for the hammer so-called dance in the outside. But here’s the last one. S&P for you and me. So. Well, this isn’t looking too rosy.
00;11;34;10 – 00;11;38;02
CODY
RSI, I just got a straight down.
00;11;38;04 – 00;11;54;29
ANDY
Again cross into overbought tried try to come back in and it’s you know technically these things do trade well right So it’s almost like kind of like a mini head and shoulders on the RSI. But I mean, just a failure to go put in a new high on that. So that’s one. And you’re getting the confirmation of the momentum now to get here.
00;11;55;01 – 00;12;08;21
ANDY
So across zero after being above zero for some time, bam! So this thing crossed into positive territory early November, just for my sister’s birthday. And then here we are, start of the year. I looked so.
00;12;08;21 – 00;12;13;29
CODY
Hot. I say this is the first day we’ve broken below the 20 day moving average since back in November.
00;12;14;02 – 00;12;19;07
ANDY
20 day I have 100 day of. I mean change that bad boy 200 set the 20 day 22.
00;12;19;10 – 00;12;20;14
CODY
So the 22 year.
00;12;20;14 – 00;12;21;02
ANDY
Old.
00;12;21;05 – 00;12;26;05
CODY
We’ve discussed a few times but this is the first time we So.
00;12;26;08 – 00;12;29;12
ANDY
Yeah, just change about a there you go. This looks like it could roll over a little bit.
00;12;29;15 – 00;12;38;21
CODY
Yeah. So here’s the question. Do we go back down to 4600, which was support for quite a few days there towards the end of the year and test. That is.
00;12;38;23 – 00;13;00;15
ANDY
Good question. Let’s go take a quick look. So you said 4600 right around here. It’s and I mean, I think at the very least you go back to where it broke out from. 4665. Okay, start there, see what happens. Let’s take a quick look at the weekly. Yeah. I mean, you’re talking about basically like you have this little hammer here in the start of the go.
00;13;00;17 – 00;13;13;08
ANDY
I think you get around that out. So yeah, I mean, it looks like you could have some short term weakness still here in this bow. And this is when you always want to be mindful of, from a macroeconomic standpoint, well set people so they can start tightening the belt.
00;13;13;11 – 00;13;23;13
CODY
Yeah. Even looking at the weekly on this fall apart here still near the highs of the last two years. Right. You got to go back to what, January of 2022.
00;13;23;15 – 00;13;37;18
ANDY
Yeah. And you know, we never you and I, we did not move this. So this is still kind of what we looked at and on Saturday looks great. And so if you just take again 122 on it, 30% of the first wave then we saw some room to go. So this is down us. We still have all time.
00;13;37;18 – 00;13;48;26
ANDY
We still have high. So look forward to well, we’ll see. Looks like short term we might be able to roll over maybe get your buying boots on a stocks on the low.
00;13;48;28 – 00;13;50;12
CODY
I go secure retirement.
00;13;50;17 – 00;13;53;19
ANDY
Get ready for retire What does retirement look like for you, by the way?
00;13;53;21 – 00;13;57;06
CODY
Well, looking at this chart, but I know some 85 more.
00;13;57;08 – 00;14;03;03
ANDY
Okay. But what I’m saying is when you turn 85 sleep, what is what is Kody going to do in retirement at home?
00;14;03;10 – 00;14;10;11
CODY
Move somewhere warm, turn my phone off and not have to worry about anything. Right. Motorcycle all day, all night.
00;14;10;13 – 00;14;11;13
ANDY
Ride or die.
00;14;11;16 – 00;14;12;26
CODY
Latter day.
00;14;12;29 – 00;14;16;15
ANDY
As with me, that sounds like a great retirement. I’d be right there with you.
00;14;16;18 – 00;14;18;15
CODY
I’m excited. I’m not.
00;14;18;18 – 00;14;30;27
ANDY
Complacent. That’s just me. Maybe shuffleboard or something like that. Some like, get back to, like, tennis, like, you know, weekend Devil’s going to go in the motorcycle like it. I don’t have a motorcycle, but I’ll get one.
00;14;31;01 – 00;14;36;26
CODY
You get a bike, I’ll start playing tennis, backhand or hand overhand all the hands you like.
00;14;36;26 – 00;14;42;16
ANDY
This is the form, like back in your hand, totally opposite. But who cares?
00;14;42;17 – 00;14;45;07
CODY
Like they do it. I’m into it.
00;14;45;10 – 00;14;46;14
ANDY
And it’s.
00;14;46;17 – 00;14;47;00
CODY
Awesome.
00;14;47;00 – 00;14;53;06
ANDY
Actually get this lesson. What kind of backhand? One hand, A backhand, two in the back end, it’s going to hit happen.
00;14;53;08 – 00;15;08;23
CODY
Well, if you watch this far, we appreciate you. Join us for the first of some tech talk as we just kind of revenue. You heard the end. We really enjoy it. But thanks for watching. If you haven’t charts, please feel free to send them to us for next week and we will be back looking at everyone’s favorite charts.
00;15;08;26 – 00;15;12;26
CODY
But until then, have a great weekend and a great week. See you next time.
[/bg_collapse]
The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-…
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod
