In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss Jan class III, Feb live cattle, and crude oil.

Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.

Charts sourced from Ever.Ag Platform.

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00;00;00;17 – 00;00;08;28
VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and it’s not suitable for all. Investor contact provided in the statement is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;09;00 – 00;00;20;00
CODY
Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody. He is and the it is the 6th of December 2023. We’re getting down to the end of the year, my friend.

00;00;20;03 – 00;00;25;10
ANDY
And down to the wire here. Getting down to the wire is going to be your house this year. What do you think?

00;00;25;12 – 00;00;28;22
CODY
Hopefully I’ve been good enough for Santa to show up. I guess we’ll find out here pretty soon.

00;00;28;24 – 00;00;30;29
ANDY
Yuan Naughty, Nice. Who knows.

00;00;31;03 – 00;00;34;12
CODY
Exactly. You’re a little bit of a different view going on in your house there.

00;00;34;12 – 00;00;37;04
ANDY
I do. It’s literally the opposite side of the room.

00;00;37;06 – 00;00;39;08
CODY
Just flipping right around.

00;00;39;11 – 00;00;41;08
ANDY
Little, little Christmas rotation for it.

00;00;41;09 – 00;00;49;19
CODY
I don’t like them, but that’s a trading floor jacket. Hung up in the background. Looks very nice hanging out. You got to get a shadow box, man. Those are important.

00;00;49;21 – 00;00;52;04
ANDY
How about you’re quite the frame like connoisseur.

00;00;52;05 – 00;00;55;01
CODY
Like I know I don’t have a shadow box, and I think they’re really cool.

00;00;55;01 – 00;01;02;06
ANDY
So since you have that, that the Michigan State Spartans flag behind you, that’s like, pinned up probably. What’s that pin up with?

00;01;02;08 – 00;01;04;13
CODY
Well, it’s actually pinned up with pins.

00;01;04;15 – 00;01;10;29
ANDY
Pins, legs, like double sided tape or something like that. But that Spartan thing in a shadow box.

00;01;11;04 – 00;01;13;00
CODY
I’m not just how I should.

00;01;13;03 – 00;01;15;09
ANDY
Speak in a shadow boxes.

00;01;15;11 – 00;01;17;19
CODY
First chart coming at request.

00;01;17;26 – 00;01;28;29
ANDY
Coming out requests. Joe check out bases loaded by the way he that’s his Joe But Joe, we were talking about you in class three. I asked him what should be on TikTok. What do we think here, dude, you didn’t.

00;01;28;29 – 00;01;33;05
CODY
We talked about this one last time. You didn’t change the Fibonacci retracement on there, did you?

00;01;33;08 – 00;01;34;10
ANDY
I did not.

00;01;34;13 – 00;01;37;08
CODY
Or the reason change anything on here?

00;01;37;10 – 00;01;45;22
ANDY
Well, I think I what I think what we’ve got in here is this trend that this trend line right here, which we seem to close through it today and stock’s 17 bucks.

00;01;45;28 – 00;01;55;14
CODY
I don’t know if you had either from last time or not, but you’re correct, because right above there today looks like 17, 22, 1720 coming in hot here.

00;01;55;17 – 00;02;15;11
ANDY
It could be I mean, you’ve got a couple of things leaning that way, right? So if you look at some of the secondary stuff and what’s going to roll this up a little bit, but this RSI crossed into oversold territory here, stayed that way and then came back out. So what that implies is that once you cross into oversold, it’s a little bit of like it’s a warning signal, right?

00;02;15;11 – 00;02;40;26
ANDY
If you’re short, you’ll be a little bit careful. But the momentum in the marketplace, a certain slowdown. But sellers need to continue this type of rate of change in order to maintain like being, quote, oversold. Coming out of that just shows that if you were to use it as a trading signal, you would then be liquidating shorts at this point, getting out of where it crossed back above that oversold territory.

00;02;40;28 – 00;03;04;07
ANDY
So it’s not so much the cross into the territory. It’s going and then coming back out. Right. So you have that and then you have a clear a lot of the stuff does trade technically. Right. And so if you look at this piece of it, right, it was trending lower. That’s broken through that and it’s got room to go test, you know, this area, which is basically like the upper end of that, you know, overbought territory.

00;03;04;07 – 00;03;30;04
ANDY
Then is this red line. So this would imply that there’s further strength to go on the futures. Right. The futures have to go up in order for this to continue climbing higher. Right. Conversely, you know, this is a this this one over here, this momentum indicator is just like, you know, where does today’s close relative, the last 12 it double bottomed and is approaching zero which would mean that this close will then be high if you cross from negative to positive.

00;03;30;04 – 00;03;50;01
ANDY
So go over like cross zero. You would then imply that this close is higher than the call of the last 12, though. Like you really would need to close over this bar right here. Let’s just open $17.18. So again, some of the secondary stuff is certainly pointing to the potential for more strength. And then you had this big you have this trend that got broken closer.

00;03;50;01 – 00;03;58;08
ANDY
Today. It’s doing it on good volume. We had a huge build in open interest like right around here. Right. So are some things adding up?

00;03;58;11 – 00;04;22;10
CODY
I guess my only question or concern would be if we don’t get the uptick that we’re kind of expecting going into tomorrow, Look at the RSI here with the chart act like it did the path know going back into middle of October where we had a nice run about a dollar higher and then it completely fell apart from 1895 down to 1740, we have that run up to 1770, crashed on the 1620.

00;04;22;13 – 00;04;27;14
CODY
Could that pendulum keep trying to swing that way? I guess would be my like.

00;04;27;17 – 00;04;48;27
ANDY
I mean, it’s it’s it’s a it certainly is a fair point. So I just clicked over to check out what current cash is with no premiums. Right. It’s about 1622. These email 1620 If you add like a nickel’s worth of premium, we’re more like a 1670 contracts or 1699. The huge premium at $17. And if we can take our bases loaded and you learn more about that stuff, but it’s not that big of a premium but the like.

00;04;48;29 – 00;05;13;25
ANDY
Yeah, I mean the concern here is what you’ve seen you pointed out here already, right this candle right here, this bar right here where you try to that would be the big concern here and the big warning sign that we’re going back down to like test this low is that you get a bar like this, right? Try to rally, you know, open higher, try to rally, fail and then close lower within this bar right here.

00;05;13;28 – 00;05;14;20
CODY
Exactly.

00;05;14;23 – 00;05;22;06
ANDY
Within that bar, that would be so I believe the term for that that like the technical term for that is hanging cloud.

00;05;22;09 – 00;05;23;12
CODY
Hanging cloud. Okay.

00;05;23;14 – 00;05;48;21
ANDY
So that you’ve got to be really careful about that. Conversely, if you open higher and then just like get it kind of like a candle like today’s where you open higher, close, higher, get some good volume. That could be a nice little stair step into again seeing some of these retracement levels materialize. Yeah. So that kind of do or die time, I mean it doesn’t start pricing until not what next week is week five of the of these.

00;05;48;21 – 00;06;12;29
ANDY
Right. Correct. So it’s got another you know the rest of this week, in the next week before it starts pricing. So I see a lock at for between now and then a catch. Yeah but it to me I think there’s some room still to go up. The secondary stuff is pointing to that. And plus like I said, you had that big build an open interest kind of like right around here where that role was happening, right where the seemed like the buyer d seller of jeans may or may not have been the spec like a speculative player.

00;06;13;01 – 00;06;19;18
ANDY
And then the question is, who is the new long in January right around here for some big size? Interesting stuff.

00;06;19;21 – 00;06;21;21
CODY
Jeff. We learned a new term today.

00;06;21;21 – 00;06;29;22
ANDY
Also hanging wild angel out. What was that thing? And like Florida was like the hanging chad or whatever.

00;06;29;24 – 00;06;32;16
CODY
Oh, yeah, I do. What was what was that from?

00;06;32;19 – 00;06;34;03
ANDY
Think of Gore-Bush?

00;06;34;06 – 00;06;35;20
CODY
Yeah, that’s right.

00;06;35;22 – 00;06;37;11
ANDY
The hanging chad.

00;06;37;15 – 00;06;39;15
CODY
That’s right. And that’s you can make.

00;06;39;15 – 00;06;56;03
ANDY
For like a new technical like indicator instead of a hanging cloud. You could have a hanging chad, right? It’s like dribbling low or something like that. And here we go. This is this is creativity. Here you want to look at Fed that. This is fed live cattle. Fats is the vernacular for live cattle last time.

00;06;56;03 – 00;07;12;23
CODY
Well, I don’t know if is on the last tech talk, but we had talked about fats quite a bit, just cattle in general. But we were talking about, you know, can this move that we’ve seen been so nasty to the downward side? Can it break into some new contract lows? And I mean, today we we did. Right. It’s not mistaken looking back.

00;07;12;26 – 00;07;20;24
ANDY
I mean, there’s a pretty nasty downtrend that that’s persisted here. Right. And several degrees.

00;07;20;27 – 00;07;36;21
CODY
And I was just before we got on or when we were talking about this, I was looking at the RSI, which is, you know, just touching the over sold territory right now, which means we could have a little bit of a a rally higher here. But the last time we did it, we didn’t rally too much before we completely came back and this kind of crashed.

00;07;36;21 – 00;07;39;01
ANDY
And so say you’ve seen that a few times.

00;07;39;03 – 00;07;40;00
CODY
Exactly.

00;07;40;02 – 00;07;53;07
ANDY
So I think like to to to kind of build up what you’re saying Again, remember, the stuff does trade technically so we you not only need to get out of oversold territory, but you get a clear this kind of hurdle rate here.

00;07;53;10 – 00;07;57;07
CODY
Right. And then looking at the momentum, momentum is the new lows right now, too.

00;07;57;09 – 00;08;18;01
ANDY
That’s it. So you’re you’re getting conflicting arguments here, not like what we saw on Jan, but class three. But here, I mean, you’re 100% correct. This is new lows, right? That’s not good. Then why not? Right. And I mean, like, this is a weekly. Yikes. Yeah, this looks bad. If you go, like, long, long term, that’s no good to sit.

00;08;18;06 – 00;08;24;02
CODY
Yeah. This week right now and we are it is Wednesday right Wednesday afternoon close below there.

00;08;24;05 – 00;08;42;21
ANDY
So back to 2020. But I mean this thing just looks I mean this this looks like just the beginning of this move. Yeah, right. I mean, we’ve all kind of looked at, you know, feeders and fads and I know we’re looking at fads right now, but I mean, like this cattle is like, man, it’s just had such a big break here recently, but I mean, not really right now.

00;08;42;23 – 00;08;55;17
CODY
Everyone keeps saying this. These are still very high prices for we’re cattle index for the past. How many years That is true. It’s just when you look at it on a daily and even bring it to a weekly, it’s not looking very bullish I guess, at this point. No.

00;08;55;19 – 00;09;16;16
ANDY
It’s really not. So this longer term stuff is definitely looking like it wants to go. At least go. I mean, I would imagine hunting at 150 is going to be a big point. You know, that’s right. Around 147 is going to be that first like level of retracement. But even if you don’t believe in that, these retracement levels, just looking at the chart alone, this looks terrible like this.

00;09;16;19 – 00;09;21;15
ANDY
If you get this close here and then it open lower, I mean, it could turn into turn into a bit of a freefall.

00;09;21;18 – 00;09;30;04
CODY
There’s not really anything on this chart that’s saying, okay, here’s the next point of support. You threw 165, which I guess a lot of people might have called support at that point. But I’m going to.

00;09;30;04 – 00;09;34;16
ANDY
Say like that’s not that’s not 100% true, right? I mean, it’s.

00;09;34;18 – 00;09;34;21
CODY
A.

00;09;34;21 – 00;09;35;22
ANDY
Long one off that.

00;09;35;26 – 00;09;38;01
CODY
So 150 I guess.

00;09;38;09 – 00;09;58;06
ANDY
That would be I think the next stopping point would be like right here is where, you know, right here. 145 144 145 I think I mean, I think this this material, this is break is material, right? You had a nice trend failed to make in a new high. That’s a pretty big bars here right This one this one and now this one.

00;09;58;08 – 00;10;05;00
ANDY
This feels weak like this. This looks like it could roll over and still be like higher than what we’ve seen in the past. Right? Right.

00;10;05;02 – 00;10;05;15
CODY
Exactly.

00;10;05;21 – 00;10;20;06
ANDY
You go back that this is a monthly and it doesn’t look at this through that next stop. Is it here? I mean, this this just looks like it could turn into a bit of a freefall, like. Right. Okay. So there’s that 145 area that we just talked about, this stuff right here.

00;10;20;08 – 00;10;34;26
CODY
Right. I mean, like we had mentioned, still high prices. Looking back in the grand scheme of things, back to 2008, 2007. But realistically, for what we’ve seen recently, I mean, this is a huge selloff from 196 to 164 ish to that.

00;10;34;29 – 00;10;58;00
ANDY
And look at this. So you broke through like this. Like if you want to use this is kind of like, you know, like that’s starting to break through there. Right. And if this dash line is zero, so that would be a big change in the long term momentum of this of this. This hasn’t been in a negative since, what does this early 2021?

00;10;58;03 – 00;11;21;18
ANDY
That would be a big change. And then and it’s being supplemented by the fact that you got into overbought territory and then not only came out of that, but are moving lower through it. Right. We just saw previously where it wasn’t getting out of oversold just yet. They kind of kept bumping along in that area. So this is in the longer term stuff is definitely looking like it’s got more let’s do this real fast.

00;11;21;21 – 00;11;24;24
ANDY
Okay, move.

00;11;24;26 – 00;11;26;01
CODY
Let’s close.

00;11;26;04 – 00;11;32;04
ANDY
That’s close. I mean, it’s right there. I mean, that that could get wicked.

00;11;32;06 – 00;11;34;09
CODY
And it’s it’s one of the six right now of the month.

00;11;34;09 – 00;11;39;23
ANDY
So it’s a monthly. So yeah I don’t know this could get a little dicey.

00;11;39;25 – 00;11;41;15
CODY
Doesn’t look good.

00;11;41;18 – 00;11;44;28
ANDY
Oh, this is the last one you want to look at. Yeah.

00;11;45;00 – 00;11;52;16
CODY
I believe last time we took a little peek yet Crude, we were sitting right below $80 a barrel, and here we are, below 70.

00;11;52;19 – 00;11;54;24
ANDY
A little picky.

00;11;54;26 – 00;12;04;10
CODY
OPEC. I mean, I’d say hold off. Fill up your gas tanks for a little while here, folks. We might have a downward slide in the barrel or in the crude barrel here.

00;12;04;12 – 00;12;25;19
ANDY
Barrels, barrels on the break. I would agree. And again, go back and look at some of the stuff that does trade technically. And when you if you cross, you failed to maintain a positive momentum and then did a testing of that. Right. And then failed again, that’s that’s very weak price action. You have a double top here. Not even a double top.

00;12;25;19 – 00;12;30;10
ANDY
Sorry. That’s this is a failure to make a new line. That’s a that’s more of an arm and that.

00;12;30;13 – 00;12;32;09
CODY
Sort of looks like.

00;12;32;12 – 00;12;33;05
ANDY
It’s not good.

00;12;33;07 – 00;12;34;06
CODY
Now.

00;12;34;08 – 00;12;51;16
ANDY
I mean, this doesn’t look good. It’s it’s tough to say like where you’d start to run out of gas but intended I mean, I drew this here. This is where this most recent low, right? Yeah, but still plenty of room there to go. So this I mean, this looks like it wants to go test this area. I mean, long story short.

00;12;51;18 – 00;13;04;06
CODY
So I flew to a weekly real fast and it’s okay you get it around on the 75 number and there’s there’s a little bit of support down there. I mean, we’ve tested some lows of 63 and a half, but bounce back from there.

00;13;04;09 – 00;13;11;17
ANDY
I mean, this should help the consumer, right? Was looking a quick monthly. This should help the consumer can look at this number. This I.

00;13;11;19 – 00;13;12;02
CODY
Do remember.

00;13;12;02 – 00;13;13;05
ANDY
That when it wasn’t traded in.

00;13;13;05 – 00;13;17;03
CODY
Negative and people didn’t remember that that crude could trade into the negative.

00;13;17;06 – 00;13;35;13
ANDY
I didn’t know that was true. And so I wanted to call it I think I called Eddie. I’m like, I think there’s something broken on our platform. It says Negative. Yeah, that’s true. I was like, You can you can do that. So, I mean, it’s go back to this. I’m going to exclude this bar because this is kind of ridiculous.

00;13;35;13 – 00;14;01;20
ANDY
But just use that like that. Like, I don’t want to do this right, Right. I think we should do that instead. I mean, we’ve had a breakout and like this this to me is probably the most like the most interesting piece of this chart is right here. Right. Trying to get back up. And then you just this isn’t even like a hanging cloud right where it only like this is more of a bearish engulfing.

00;14;01;22 – 00;14;18;23
ANDY
Like the cloud cover is like it tries to rally, get above the previous candles high and then comes back down and settles within that bar. And as a red candle right. This is just completely engulfing. So this would suggest to you that, you know, you got to go down here and test those lows that we just talked about.

00;14;18;26 – 00;14;30;12
CODY
Yeah. Which like you said, run the same year. I think most people would be excited about it. Not everyone, but most. Right. A lot of travel holidays.

00;14;30;15 – 00;14;32;05
ANDY
And go to holiday, by the way.

00;14;32;08 – 00;14;36;27
CODY
Oh, I don’t think so. Nothing I know of nothing at all. What about you?

00;14;36;29 – 00;14;39;21
ANDY
I’m going to go to Dallas DFW.

00;14;39;23 – 00;15;07;04
CODY
There you go. Well, maybe your plane ticket will be a little bit cheaper because it seemed like. Nevermind. All right, everybody. Well, we appreciate you guys tuning in. We appreciate Joe Schmidt reaching out to us, asking about a chart. Shout out to Joe, Check our bases loaded. So don’t let anybody have a fantastic weekend. We’ll see you next week, same time, same back channel.

00;15;07;10 – 00;15;11;07
ANDY
I think next year you should be Adam West for Halloween. Don’t throw it out there.

00;15;11;09 – 00;15;20;11
CODY
We go back to the old the Batman and Robin, like the old ones where it looks like they just put them together in somebody’s house in like 5 minutes. Those are awesome.

00;15;20;14 – 00;15;24;16
ANDY
Yeah. And like, they punch somebody in, like, the bam pops up in the frame.

00;15;24;18 – 00;15;29;23
CODY
And you’d have to be like, Did it where it spins and spins out…

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