In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss the S&P 500, spot cheese, soybeans, and spot nonfat.

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0;00;00;21 – 00;00;09;21
VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and it’s not suitable for all. Investor contact provided in the strike is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;09;24 – 00;00;25;04
CODY
Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. It is January 18th. Thursday morning. We are doing this episode before cash. We are about 15 minutes to cheese session. I’m Cody, This is Andy. Super excited to be here. Super excited. You doing.

00;00;25;07 – 00;00;26;13
ANDY
I’m doing great Cody How are you?

00;00;26;18 – 00;00;27;05
CODY
Staying warm.

00;00;27;09 – 00;00;29;01
ANDY
Stay warm. Trying to How about you.

00;00;29;03 – 00;00;30;02
CODY
Try and we’re trying.

00;00;30;09 – 00;00;33;10
ANDY
We’re on the upswing next week. Like high 45.

00;00;33;10 – 00;00;35;23
CODY
Here, 45. And rain is going to be like a tropical paradise.

00;00;36;00 – 00;00;45;20
ANDY
It is going to be. You know what? That’s glass half full right there. That’s tropical paradise. I mean, that’s going to be like I think the low here was like -30. So it’s going to be like a 75 degree swing. Were you out there struggling, by the way?

00;00;45;22 – 00;00;58;19
CODY
Yeah, we got some. We’re don’t have any snow. While we have snow, we haven’t gotten power. It was snowing about a day now, so everything’s clear. Got a little bit of ice. People are in the ditch here in Michigan. Forgot to drive. It’s okay. It’s a learning adventure every single year.

00;00;58;24 – 00;01;02;11
ANDY
It’s an adventure. Life’s a garden. Dig in. Okay.

00;01;02;13 – 00;01;03;14
CODY
That I like to hear.

00;01;03;21 – 00;01;05;27
ANDY
Well, let’s get roll in here.

00;01;06;00 – 00;01;06;23
CODY
All right.

00;01;06;26 – 00;01;10;08
ANDY
This is the S&P. I think this came a request. Or did it not? I can’t remember.

00;01;10;14 – 00;01;11;10
CODY
I believe so.

00;01;11;13 – 00;01;17;24
ANDY
Okay. Not did. It’s mystery who did it, but I don’t know. This is starting to get a little toppy here. What do you think.

00;01;18;01 – 00;01;20;12
CODY
The 20 day moving average is What you got pinned on there, right?

00;01;20;12 – 00;01;21;16
ANDY
I sure do.

00;01;21;18 – 00;01;28;15
CODY
Yep. So, I don’t know. We didn’t completely break through. I mean, we broke through yesterday. We didn’t actually sell below there.

00;01;28;17 – 00;01;45;29
ANDY
Not yet, at least. But I mean, I guess the thing that sticks out to me right there and then right there. Right. And bears tend to jump out the window and bulls tend to climb upstairs. Right. We’re setting up for like an m correction to be mindful of, Right. I mean, if you’re looking for an opportunity to get short, this seems like as good as one as any.

00;01;46;00 – 00;02;02;14
ANDY
At least you know where you’re wrong. So let’s just do that. Bam! 4850. I guess if you you know, it goes and trades 4850 is wrong. Right. But I think there’s, there’s room for this thing to potentially break down into where it kind of was consolidating. So you take a midpoint, what is it, 46 and some change. Yep.

00;02;02;14 – 00;02;20;05
ANDY
So and then some of these longer term stuff you could see like a retracement of this consolidate in here. You’re not getting that great of a response after like this candle right here. Right. So you had an attempt to break down failed that you would have liked to have seen a candle that opened higher and then continue to move.

00;02;20;08 – 00;02;31;25
ANDY
Does that see that? So yeah, it’s kind of a warning sign. But yeah, this one to me again, the failure to make a new high, the M that it’s forming, it’s a warning sign. So something to be a little bit mindful of. Maybe you get some stocks a little bit cheaper.

00;02;32;01 – 00;02;38;13
CODY
Maybe drop down to 46,000 kind of like you said, we consolidated earlier and get some bought. You might be sitting pretty good for us.

00;02;38;13 – 00;02;56;11
ANDY
We’ll say it’s a mystery. So. So I had this one up. But let’s take a quick peek at cheese swatches before today’s session. So who knows what will happen. This could be totally different in 10 minutes, but I guess it’s not quite exactly the opposite, but it’s get in there of the chart we just looked at. Right. You talked about this a little bit here on the show.

00;02;56;11 – 00;03;18;10
ANDY
And what we’ve seen here thus far is it seems like we’re trying to break out of this downtrend. We’re starting to see really good volume futures are pricing in a little bit of a premium and you’re also seeing, like the rest of the world, not to rip higher but maintain a nice, healthy premium. Right. So, yeah, I mean, this is you know, I think you’ll continue to see buyers of cheese take on product.

00;03;18;12 – 00;03;32;02
ANDY
Well, discount to the rest of the world. So I guess the question of, you know, can we at least continue to consolidate, then you will have kind of solidified the breakup of this downtrend and then you have a higher lows. It’s it’s a decent shot at this rally. You’ve got some room.

00;03;32;04 – 00;03;48;03
CODY
I mean, not saying that we’re going to $2 right away, but like you mentioned, I mean, we’ve been discount to the rest of the world for quite a bit of time. And even after this past Tuesday, we just we kind of keep hanging down here at this dollar $45.47 number when they’re at what, a dollar 90 average call.

00;03;48;08 – 00;03;49;19
CODY
Sure. It’s very interesting.

00;03;49;19 – 00;04;06;24
ANDY
It’s got a nice shot at it. Right. I mean like the higher low plus the breakout of the downtrend, You can make the argument it’s starting to kind of set up as a means of like we could see a little bit of a pop. Right. And, you know, even if we’re just retrace let’s say we just retrace a third of this break.

00;04;07;00 – 00;04;24;09
ANDY
So talking like a dollar 60 cheese, which is about where February is now. So go straight. Fab is basically saying we’re going to retrace a third of this move, which wouldn’t be that much. Right? Right now, that’s what, 148. So at a dime on the average, you do that in two or three days. Yeah. So I don’t I mean, we’ll see.

00;04;24;09 – 00;04;27;27
ANDY
But this one looking a little Hey, we’ve got DFA right around the corner too.

00;04;27;29 – 00;04;28;29
CODY
That’s true.

00;04;29;02 – 00;04;36;21
ANDY
Sunday night, Sunday, Saturday or Sunday, Sunday, Sunday, Sunday. What’s that from anyways?

00;04;36;24 – 00;04;37;12
CODY
It’s a good question.

00;04;37;12 – 00;04;48;26
ANDY
And I have no idea. I just know like you hear it all Sunday, Sunday, Sunday. Anyways, the industry events can typically bring about volatility. I guess. So. We’ll see. Next up.

00;04;48;26 – 00;05;12;13
CODY
Soybeans. I mean, you’ve had a pretty bearish downturn here in the past couple of weeks. Are you remember the last time we actually talked about soybeans was but the after was last Friday’s was the report. I mean, beans are pretty good down. They retrace a lot of that. But in the following days, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, you just kind of saw yourself trickle a little bit lower into not new new lows.

00;05;12;13 – 00;05;20;18
CODY
I mean, you got to get down to, what, 1150 for that in the way this chart is really setting up. I mean, that’s not too darn far apart, what, $0.50 from here?

00;05;20;22 – 00;05;39;12
ANDY
It’s nothing. You know, it’s not. And if you kind of expand on that a little bit, what’s interesting is that you had what looks like a head and shoulders kind of played out here really well. Right. So you have this could be like the head portion of it, another shoulder here. And then you broke what is basically the neckline right here.

00;05;39;15 – 00;05;55;16
ANDY
And it never really looked back right? Right. It took a shot at getting back over there for a day. But this this would be like the breakout right around here, right? Where if you went and traded back above 1350, you know you’re wrong. But this, to me, looks like a nice little head and shoulders pattern. I think you’re right.

00;05;55;16 – 00;06;13;28
ANDY
I mean, we’ve got to go test this. 1150. Let’s go take a look at that on a weekly. The weekly. I mean, there really isn’t a ton of support until you get done around here. Right. But I mean, this is also on a longer term basis, this price point. So kind of that area where you’re just looking at a little bit more premium to that, but not a ton.

00;06;14;01 – 00;06;31;24
CODY
I think the last one that we had hit on this, I mean, you had a little bit of long term support at 1282 over 84. Yeah, we gapped that day lower and have not gone back up. Fill that gap now does mean it absolutely has to be filled but it begs to differ that the 1150 kind of seems like the next testing point.

00;06;31;25 – 00;06;51;25
ANDY
Yeah I guess the only thing I’d be a little bit mindful of is that you crossed into oversold territory technically. Right. So let’s just do this real fast. So if right here you crossed an oversold, that doesn’t mean you’d like. That’s just a warning, right? What you’d be one of the most mindful of, I guess is that if we went back and cross below and then came back up basically.

00;06;51;25 – 00;07;04;27
ANDY
Right. So that’s like the indication that like at that point you’d want to be seriously considering either getting out of shorts or at least hedging that off buying calls or something like that. That’s a bit of a warning sign that this break is starting to become a little bit exhausted. That’s a it’s a dollar 50 break a bushel.

00;07;04;27 – 00;07;07;19
ANDY
That’s a lot, 1354 bucks.

00;07;07;21 – 00;07;16;19
CODY
So I guess the interesting thing is, I mean, that’s the first time we’ve broken through the RSI to the oversold territory on this weekly chart. Right. Going back in to 2020.

00;07;16;22 – 00;07;17;09
ANDY
For a long time.

00;07;17;09 – 00;07;32;29
CODY
So, you know, if if you look at daily, the RSI, the last time we broke into oversold territory was May just leading up until June that actually the very last day of June. And that’s when we ripped from that bottom of 1150 up to 1416.

00;07;32;29 – 00;07;54;01
ANDY
Yeah, we could theoretically trickle lower down to this 1150 and remain under the blue line. Yeah, I guess it would be my thoughts. Look for that to happen. And then if it starts to consolidate, you’d see that thing cross back over and that would probably prompt the buy side to come up. So we’ll see. But still stay sure if Now I guess last one but not least.

00;07;54;04 – 00;07;59;24
ANDY
Certainly not least sit your favorite. I haven’t touched a line here, by the way. Not one.

00;07;59;26 – 00;08;00;27
CODY
Weekly nonfat.

00;08;01;01 – 00;08;21;23
ANDY
Weekly, nonfat. Okay, let’s just look at the chart for now. It’s playing out the way we’ve been talking about. That’s what this is. A nice little rounding. And the futures continue to maintain a premium. And like I said, we’ve been talking about this Elliott wave picking up and this would take us right back to this third retracement of this big move.

00;08;21;23 – 00;08;23;06
ANDY
I think we’re getting ready to do it.

00;08;23;08 – 00;08;35;22
CODY
I think it looks like it. I’m just going to say, is my testing area going to be confirmed now? This is on weekly, so it’s taken a little bit more time than had been stated, but we get through that. What does that 120 31341.

00;08;35;22 – 00;08;55;02
ANDY
2301 24 Easy math like this is basically what’s the right price not that 119 and a half or basically like $0.04. Why do you do that today? Right. We could do that in 30 minutes here. So. Right. Like this rounding pattern here, the premium in the futures market, I think he’s going to be really careful with this. Right.

00;08;55;02 – 00;08;58;04
ANDY
I mean, I think we’re getting ready to have a nice little Elliott wave move from.

00;08;58;04 – 00;09;03;19
CODY
Where you had tested earlier. You have the Elliott wave going up to 136, which is exactly where that retracement is.

00;09;03;19 – 00;09;10;17
ANDY
Like, I think this is the next step for this chart. We’ll see. I’m not I said we’re not touching this chart. Nothing.

00;09;10;20 – 00;09;16;20
CODY
So at this point, just basically look at this chart. You are a seller or a buyer.

00;09;16;22 – 00;09;19;06
ANDY
You would want to be a buyer of this chart.

00;09;19;09 – 00;09;20;01
CODY
Okay.

00;09;20;04 – 00;09;21;08
ANDY
Buyer of the year.

00;09;21;11 – 00;09;23;03
CODY
It’s good enough. That’s good enough for you.

00;09;23;05 – 00;09;23;18
ANDY
That’s right.

00;09;23;20 – 00;09;38;22
CODY
You’re awesome. All right, everybody, That’s going to do it for another episode of Tech Talk with Andy and myself. We appreciate you guys tuning in. Is in charts that we did not look at and the you want to look at next week, please feel free to email us Texas. Call us. We’ll definitely get those on the docket. Carrie But until then, have a great weekend.

00;09;38;27 – 00;09;48;06
CODY
Try to stay warm if you’re ready for next week when it’s 40 and raining. Sounds like a better time to me, but either way, enjoy the week during the weekend. We’ll see you next time.

00;09;48;09 – 00;09;48;19
ANDY
Later.

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