In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss natural gas, October class IV, butter and CME cheese.
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(Transcipt auto-generated)
00;00;00;21 – 00;00;10;21
VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and it’s not suitable for all. Investor contact provided in the strike is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
00;00;10;23 – 00;00;25;11
CODY
Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody. He is Andy. It is actually Tuesday morning, the 30th of January nine was at nine 3915 Central Time, 1015 Eastern time. Are you.
00;00;25;14 – 00;00;33;03
ANDY
There long? I had to do my like it’s January. David are a month. It is 31 days. You’re like a trick to know.
00;00;33;05 – 00;00;34;22
CODY
Is there a rhyme or something?
00;00;34;24 – 00;00;57;12
ANDY
I love a rhyme, but this is how I do it. So you have like, on your knuckles each time you tap a knuckle is a 31 day months ago. You’re like, just watching, right? Because there’s a trick involved. Such January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August. You tap it twice. September, October, November, December. Each time you tap a knuckle, it’s a 31 day month and each time you double, it’s a 30 days.
00;00;57;12 – 00;01;03;20
ANDY
Well, just your whole mind just got blown right there each time. Tap knuckle. 31 day months. Just do the double.
00;01;03;22 – 00;01;08;18
CODY
Get nothing else from your channel. At least you know how to count the 31 days of the year.
00;01;08;20 – 00;01;10;29
ANDY
Speaking of, we’ve got to dose me.
00;01;11;02 – 00;01;12;26
CODY
We spinach for two weeks to request.
00;01;12;26 – 00;01;14;24
ANDY
Right to his spinach.
00;01;14;24 – 00;01;24;10
CODY
So Kyle from Michigan wants April natural gas and then Boise from Idaho they look at October class fourth.
00;01;24;12 – 00;01;26;21
ANDY
So we’re going to start with Kyle right.
00;01;26;23 – 00;01;32;24
CODY
His comment to me, his question was, does it look like we are bottoming out at $2 again in April?
00;01;32;25 – 00;01;53;23
ANDY
My guess we haven’t gotten under two bucks yet. So, you know, you’ve got here’s another one, too. And let’s just let’s just throw this one for kicks. So right there. Right. And so seems like you’re attempting to try to put in a higher lower, I guess, iolo on the momentum piece of it. Not so much on the actual chart itself, Right?
00;01;53;23 – 00;02;11;00
ANDY
Because yesterday, no Gouda. Like, I don’t necessarily feel like this is something that’s just going to just turn right back around. We’re going to look at the cheese chart here in a second. But this that looks some of that looks somewhat similar as why bring it up? But like this is still more or less like in play, right, this downtrend.
00;02;11;00 – 00;02;32;23
ANDY
So it’s tough to say that this thing is just going to rip higher. Yeah, I guess it’s a widowmaker. It’s a wicked market. I think that’s because the official nickname Widowmaker. So I guess the only thing that would make me a little bit nervous about short is that you’ve got this this guy that’s starting to momentum is starting to at least try to fail to put in a new low, which is it’s a sign that the weakness in the market, like the rate of change is slowing.
00;02;32;28 – 00;02;47;02
ANDY
Right. And then you know, the stochastic is it here? And as I look back, if you get this blue line this, you know, the fast one, the crossover, the slow one, then that’s another indication that things may be starting to turn. But I think the biggest one would be if you broke this downtrend.
00;02;47;02 – 00;02;57;02
CODY
That’s kind of what I heard also when I was looking at the RSI and we haven’t really dropped below the blue line on the RSI, it’s a for going back into December in what, December of last year?
00;02;57;04 – 00;03;13;08
ANDY
Yeah. So I see I mean, I see like the argument or like the attempt at it I guess. But again that was yesterday’s close through this low technically. Right. And then you’re not getting the best. Like ideally you’d want to see an open lower if you want to continue the trend. Not getting that but it’s starting to kind of creep lower.
00;03;13;08 – 00;03;17;15
ANDY
So that’s I mean to me it’s that’s I think you get a break to this downtrend before you say like a time ago.
00;03;17;17 – 00;03;29;05
CODY
The other interesting argument would be on a monthly I mean, looking at it that way, we haven’t settled below. I mean, we’ve touched below $2, but we haven’t settled there. And I mean, years, right? You’ve got to go back to 2020 before that’s happened.
00;03;29;05 – 00;03;35;05
ANDY
In 20, about that track not that long led this $2 to ten.
00;03;35;07 – 00;03;41;25
CODY
Cash and every time we do go below $2, to your point, we don’t stay there very long. I mean, it becomes a volatile market at that price.
00;03;41;25 – 00;03;57;25
ANDY
Yep, sure. Definitely. One to be careful here right away and you’re starting to like we said earlier, you’re starting to get some indicators that are showing, at least on daily side of things to the downside are starting to slow down. It’s just I think you’re going to get a better confirmation for you want a spot to get more I guess is my point.
00;03;57;25 – 00;04;08;02
ANDY
And I think the big one would be this downtrend being broken. We’ll see. So we had a very specific month that I just think we’re not just Class four, but October of 2020 for Class four was that was the.
00;04;08;02 – 00;04;21;06
CODY
Specific question of Class four was a specific request also specific question? What are the chances you guys see October class four hitting $21.
00;04;21;08 – 00;04;22;12
ANDY
Trading 21 bucks.
00;04;22;15 – 00;04;23;12
CODY
Very specific.
00;04;23;18 – 00;04;30;05
ANDY
I’ll see what I mean. It’s another $0.20 from here, but it is, you know, on a rampage. And so in knots, that seems to be catching a little bit of a bid, too.
00;04;30;11 – 00;04;32;13
CODY
But what happens is that right now.
00;04;32;16 – 00;04;49;14
ANDY
And again, there’s nothing really stopping. There’s no areas of resistance. There’s nothing technical about it that just shows that like, hey, this things needs to just roll over. In fact, it’s still only about 930, so there’s still plenty of time left in the day. But if this is going to be the way this candle settles, it’s a hammer.
00;04;49;17 – 00;04;55;25
ANDY
And that’s that’s a sign of continued strength, at least. Right. Because you attempted to get if you just kind of blow this up a little bit.
00;04;55;28 – 00;04;57;23
CODY
Looks like this. Let’s put it side by side.
00;04;57;26 – 00;04;59;21
ANDY
There it is right there.
00;04;59;23 – 00;05;00;19
CODY
Bam.
00;05;00;21 – 00;05;19;15
ANDY
Doji swimmer. Yeah. And like what’s interesting about too is that you attempted to engulf yesterday’s trade gaps. Kind of got the trade could do it still early this could still be yes if we settle back on today’s low. What is the today’s low of 2016 again, it’s not that big of a range, right? It’s $0.20. We’ve already done that.
00;05;19;15 – 00;05;34;14
ANDY
So class three day I think so. That to me is a signal that you want to look that we’re heading back probably into this noise. So now there’s nothing really technical insanely that’s just roll over. So I’d be a little bit more inclined to be, I guess I’ll say. Like it sure feels like it could go trade $21.
00;05;34;21 – 00;05;39;11
ANDY
Lot of time left. I mean, who knows where it’s going to settle? This is acting like it’s going to go trade one of my books.
00;05;39;16 – 00;05;41;27
CODY
There you go. Asking you shall receive my friends asking.
00;05;41;27 – 00;05;43;11
ANDY
You shall receive. I mean, what do you think?
00;05;43;16 – 00;05;56;26
CODY
I agree. I tend to agree. Like you said, it’s only $0.20 way better not try to kind of be leading the charge the past couple of days. We’re not trying to guess where it’s going to settle by any stretch of the imagination. But if I was going to higher, lower to touch $21, I would say, yeah, it’s probably going to.
00;05;56;28 – 00;06;17;01
ANDY
Fair enough. There you go. You heard it here first from Cody. Speaking of, I know we’re going a little out of sequence, but let’s talk about butter rules since we’re was thrown that class for trading. So how do you say the idea of, say, and butter just rips? For better or for worse, right? Correct. And you know, it was in this it’s kind of reminiscent of when we just kind of dance along.
00;06;17;02 – 00;06;21;22
ANDY
It’s tight range here and then just took off. We drew this last week.
00;06;21;22 – 00;06;24;03
CODY
Correct big gap in the.
00;06;24;08 – 00;06;33;05
ANDY
Good that bad boy back in the there we go Now we’re talking gap chasers and currency. So I was in the office yesterday. Kevin Peterson was talking about Gap Jason if if they’re so.
00;06;33;07 – 00;06;39;07
CODY
They’re like Pokemon we’ve got to get small.
00;06;39;09 – 00;06;57;21
ANDY
Yeah You sure? Sure do. All right. Well, I guess I don’t know. I don’t know how you follow up on that. So let’s just go. Let’s just finish this thing up here since we’re all up on it. So cheese. I mean, we talked about this one last week. Did I mean, this was last week’s close weekly of the CME averages.
00;06;57;21 – 00;07;14;05
ANDY
This was last week’s collapse of a 60. And yesterday, pretty big day. But, you know, again, higher low got out of this downtrend that gapped higher yesterday to start the week. So this I mean here’s another little one right here. I see another Pokemon right here.
00;07;14;05 – 00;07;19;18
CODY
And I think you had mentioned this internally at a buck 80. And where does that gap kind of sit?
00;07;19;21 – 00;07;40;12
ANDY
What do you think about some of the trade that we’ve seen in like February here? I mean, check out bases loaded, by the way, and learn more about that. But, you know, the subcontract is on starting pricing and it’s acting like, you know, where’s it at now, Since we started the show, we’re a little lower suspension. But still, I mean, you have to continue to justify that price or get some substantial basis for the first more than what we seen here.
00;07;40;12 – 00;08;04;11
ANDY
But this gap, I mean, it’s out there acting. It’s February certainly still a little perky here. And futures when you go out to like, you know, some of these deferred months are saying that that’s where we’re going to go anyways right up and around that level. It’s also a price point where the rest of the world seems to be, you know, when you start talking about like Oceana and Europe are insights team puts out a lot of good stuff on that so go check out some of that to the fundamental stuff.
00;08;04;11 – 00;08;13;20
ANDY
But you know, to me that gap sticks out. You’re talking about com I just keep going back to like who’s your favorite hockey mom by the way.
00;08;13;23 – 00;08;25;22
CODY
I’ve never seen nor played or listen to Pokemon. I just there in Corbett I saw everybody chase them around in Chicago and I was like, What are these people doing? And then I found out and I said, That’s it applies to a lot of things in life, right? You got to catch them all.
00;08;25;24 – 00;08;30;03
ANDY
I guess. What else does it apply to in life? Like out of the gaps, like, wow.
00;08;30;06 – 00;08;32;04
CODY
That’s a conversation.
00;08;32;07 – 00;08;40;10
ANDY
For another day. And it’s coming from the guy that has like one or two spoons. You have more shovels than you do. Like silverware.
00;08;40;12 – 00;08;41;06
CODY
Exactly.
00;08;41;08 – 00;08;59;11
ANDY
Priorities. It’s priorities I like, I guess like the closing of the start up this gap that’s out there. I think you have to be more like the fact that we’ve broken through this downtrend. We’ve got the momentum is starting to turn. You’ve got some of the secondary indicators that are acting like the market can continue to go up and yesterday’s cash session was too strong.
00;08;59;11 – 00;09;00;23
ANDY
Like, well, I mean, like it.
00;09;00;26 – 00;09;14;11
CODY
Seems very reminiscent of last year if you go that big green candle is July 20, 2023. I mean, yeah, the downturn we were in and all of a sudden July just rips hiring higher. It’s it’s very reminiscent of exactly what happened last year. Sure. Right.
00;09;14;11 – 00;09;29;05
ANDY
For sure. And if I remember it, too, like, you know, the rest of the world, we were substantially lower for the year up from the rest of the world. And even like our futures curve, got discount to the rest of the world, too. And so we our ability to export just became that much better during that time. And then we just ripped right in.
00;09;29;05 – 00;09;45;16
ANDY
So I guess that’s part of the argument is a lot of that same at least price action. Obviously fundamentals can be different year to year, but the price action is certainly acting the same right now. Stay cheap for a long enough if the future’s low enough to where we’re discount and then you take off. Once a business has done so.
00;09;45;22 – 00;09;57;03
ANDY
It certainly is acting like this. It’s got some potential to it and you got this gap up there that can go up and there’s nothing that says the futures can’t trade a discount to the cheese, just having like a blow off top and don’t sign that. Yeah, that is true. That’s certainly possible.
00;09;57;10 – 00;09;59;00
CODY
That’s true.
00;09;59;03 – 00;10;07;06
ANDY
I mean, the chart is. Yeah, it’s only Tuesday, right. And you’ve already had a nice big gap and but again, going back to, you know, you got to catch them all right?
00;10;07;12 – 00;10;08;16
CODY
You got to catch more.
00;10;08;18 – 00;10;10;10
ANDY
You’ve created this one now.
00;10;10;12 – 00;10;13;11
CODY
It’s it’s a dangerous, dangerous game.
00;10;13;13 – 00;10;26;22
ANDY
Yeah. So you’ve created that one now to go be mindful of. So yeah, that’s certainly got the momentum, especially with the rest of the complex too. Like we just look different class or worth the risk. We got some momentum there too, so we’ll see. Maybe we’ll be limited down to do now some.
00;10;26;24 – 00;10;27;28
CODY
Time with this.
00;10;28;00 – 00;10;44;27
ANDY
Who knows by the way. So I remember correctly when we did our Gaskell episode back in 2022, I think, but I’m almost positive that he ended that that show with. We asked him when the next time he was going to be on and he said, I’ll see you in 2023.
00;10;44;29 – 00;10;46;14
CODY
You’ll see me in 2023.
00;10;46;20 – 00;10;48;14
ANDY
Four and four never.
00;10;48;14 – 00;10;49;04
CODY
Happened.
00;10;49;07 – 00;10;51;17
ANDY
So that’s okay. It’s in the past. We’re still.
00;10;51;17 – 00;10;52;06
CODY
Waiting.
00;10;52;08 – 00;11;06;07
ANDY
I think we may have to start to Jask and count down here pretty soon or whatever that is. Just like how many days is it take for Gaskell to show up on the show? Maybe less people start texting or something like that. But really to back when I feel like we need it’s like the summer of George. We need to have Jessica back on the show.
00;11;06;09 – 00;11;19;25
ANDY
So this is a 2024. It’s like our it’s our life goals for some people try to you know, people have different New Year’s resolutions and stuff like that. Tiktok’s is going to get some Yes. Going to give Jeff or jump to ask her to reach out to Hey, you all to just look at all the days.
00;11;19;27 – 00;11;47;08
CODY
Speaking of things that we were trying to do here on Tech, talking as a company, we were trying to get to 10,000 subscribers. We are not quite that close. We’re a little bit over 1000. So if everyone would please like share comment on this, be a friend, tell a friend or your family member, subscribe to the channel. We’re trying to give 10,000 subscribers by the end of this year and check out you know, our companies kind of like Pokemon Go catch all the YouTube videos that Paige puts out.
00;11;47;08 – 00;12;04;03
CODY
Go, go watch them all. Check them all out. Subscribe. Help us get to this goal. Very lofty, but we think we can definitely do it. Also, big shout out to Kyle and Steve for the charts today, you know, writing in for those and we’d like to see more of those going forward, maybe even have someone. JSKL and Joe get on the show would be great.
00;12;04;06 – 00;12;04;16
ANDY
About.
00;12;04;16 – 00;12;12;08
CODY
That. We should do that would be awesome. But until then, everybody, we appreciate you watching, tuning in. We’ll see you guys next week on another episode of Tech Talk.
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