Take a deep dive into this week’s NDPSR report with Joe Schmit in Basis Loaded.
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Source: USDA https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/dy… —
Music: The Return of Laín Coubert composed by Jaden Schmit
https://soundcloud.com/jaden-schmit/the-return-of-lain-coubert
(Transcript auto-generated)
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Hello and welcome to the March 20th edition of Bases Loaded with Joe Schmitt. I am Joe Schmitt. This episode, as always, is produced by Paige Driscoll with help from the Everyday Insights team. This is the vernal equinox edition of Bases Loaded. Spring is upon us. The tulips and daffodils are up currently frozen, but they are up. What better way to celebrate than with the latest from the sampler, we’ll start with butter.
00;00;40;29 – 00;01;12;09
This butter number coming in at two 8640 represents a plus five to the semi one week average of two 8115. The ME was up one here on the Indy PSR up over four weeks week so we had an expansion of basis plus five really nice basis well above our expected to cent positive basis. Last week we treated eight loads at the CME so not a lot there to pull basis down.
00;01;12;15 – 00;01;45;20
Volume on Andy Serwer, a little bit short of our expected three and a half million, but respectable at 3.3. And when you combine that with the five cent positive basis and £3.3 million on the PSR volume, I’d have to call it a win for the butter manufacturer. Next up is cheese. We’ll start with the block variety one 5981 That’s about a half cent over the semi one week average of one 5940.
00;01;45;20 – 00;02;12;07
Now half a cent course is a drastic change from where basis in the block has been running as of late. And even although our expected 2 to 3% positive basis at the CME to achieve that one 5940 level, we were up $0.07 week to week. Then the following week we were down ten. So this was a short term peak in the block price.
00;02;12;09 – 00;02;59;14
You would expect lower basis on a move such as that. And that’s exactly what we received. To add further pressure to the block pricing, we traded 13 loads of the CME last week at the 145 ish level, so you had some substantially discounted prices going in along with the CME Plus plus contracts that exist out there. One 5981 All in all, a nice price considering the seen the average and at that elevated level relative to currency in the prices, the manufacturer was able to move just short of 11 and a half million pounds which of course is £1,000,000 short of our expected 12 and a half.
00;02;59;16 – 00;03;35;28
But compared to the last four weeks on the anti PSR, 11.4 seems like a big win in moving volume at the CME in the barrel one 6508 Our two week average at CNN is one 6240 so I’ll call that a positive two and a half cent basis. Again, big volume at the CME last week, 23 loads. So after breaking $0.20 on the CME last week, we finally tried a bid and found some volume, traded 23 loads.
00;03;36;00 – 00;04;04;23
Again, that weight is discount to the two week CME average that the barrel forward contracts were based on. So that probably went a long way to pull that basis down to the two and a half level well below our expected 3 to 6 cent positive basis. However, at one 6508 on the anti PSR, the manufacturer was able to move 13 almost £13.3 million.
00;04;04;25 – 00;04;35;10
So good volume on the anti PSR at what appears to be relative to currency me prices and elevated value on on an article that a win for the barrel manufacturer for this March 16th period up next in the way this week’s way price came in at 4856 that is a plus for to the CME one week average of 4485.
00;04;35;12 – 00;05;03;02
The CME is moving lower. However, as we would expect the anti PSR begrudgingly hanging out in this high forties level just as on the way up it took a long time for those higher values at the CME to find their way into the PSR. The converse is true on the way down lower levels at see me are taking a long time to find the way in to the end are in way begrudgingly stuck up at this 4856 level.
00;05;03;06 – 00;05;30;00
What’s interesting is that we even at that elevated level still had £5.5 million in sales. So the manufacturers are still doing just fine, moving way at an elevated level with sales a million over the expected £4.5 million level. What’s interesting is on that PSR volume, we’re not getting any help from the CME last week, CME volume zero week for that zero.
00;05;30;02 – 00;05;53;00
So not a whole lot of interest to see me and we’re certainly not seeing a big increase in volume coming from the CME. However, sales on the handpiece are still humming along at what appears to be an elevated level. And then lastly, Non Fab one, 1983. We’ll call that a full penny over the semi one week average of 119 ten.
00;05;53;03 – 00;06;16;13
We traded 11 loads on the CME. It’s nice to see that the volume is returning here to the PSR at this sub. 120 level manufacturer will move a lot of weight. 20.2 is certainly above our expected £20 million level and all in all relative to the levels that we’re seeing at the CME, I’d have to call that a win for the manufacturer on this week’s NONFAT.
00;06;16;13 – 00;06;48;10
So this is week three of five for the March pricing cycle, currently getting March class three at 1643 with March class or all the way up at 2010. If you carry currency equivalence out through the four week April pricing cycle, currently giving April class three at 1575 with an April Class four of 1990, try and get outside and enjoy some of these clear sunny skies until next week.
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I’m Joe. On behalf of page and the ever concise team. Thanks so much. See you next week by.