In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss cheese, July wheat and Dec corn.

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Future trading involves risk and not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this book is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

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Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is Andy and with us as always, Miss Paige Driscoll. It keeps everything in line. All three of us make up the tech talk team.

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Tech talk trio, TikTok trio, TikTok tripod or something like that. Ever heard that one I did? Now TBT is.

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Back for another episode. Middle of May.

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Smack dab smack dab in the middle. It’s getting hot, by the way. It’s starting to get a little bit toasty. Cash market. It’s getting hot. Everything’s just getting hot.

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So I think.

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I see your sunburn healed, by the way, like it’s no longer red. I know, how’s that going?

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Going well I appreciate you asking. Got it all healed up for another weekend where I’ll probably get burnt again. So just in time.

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Since summer fun with Cody.

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Just in time.

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All right, well, I guess speaking of Red, should we talk about this first shirt here?

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We should. Speaking of hot market scratches.

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The sunburns, hot spot cheese. This thing is just, like, out of control. It’s just flying right now.

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It’s like a chopper.

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Yeah, It’s nuts, at any rate. What do you think? Here, two bucks we can hold it, not hold.

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And I don’t know is it is Thursday. We still have one more day, but I feel like good old test. what do we have there? 202 2:03 a.m. opening the card.

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I think this is what we talked about last night. It is this number right here. Right? We got through all this noise and then this was like that, that area where if you wanted to start to draw, like where things start to really break out from, it seems like we’re getting ready to test that price off. We really did.

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But it is Thursday, right? I mean, we still have another day, right? I mean, we’re getting back up into this little area right here. Right. And it’s what’s interesting too is that so we haven’t looked at this one in a while, but you mentioned it right before the call. So we’re going to look at it. I mean this thing, it’s like it’s just getting ready to jump right off the dock, man.

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this is the spread between the block and the barrel block.

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Barrel spread. This one is block. Mine is barrel. So negative means the barrel is premium to the block.

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Which the amount of trades that we’ve seen recently in the block has been obviously way outpacing the barrel. But the amount of uptick that we’ve seen in the barrel, you can tell by the chart, has just been massive.

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This is a monthly right. And so this isn’t necessarily like a red candle. Doesn’t necessarily mean prices are going down. Right. That’s saying is that the barrel is well over the block a lot more so than you normally see. So that’s a monthly this is a weekly. Last time we were here was Labor Day 2022 ish.

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Looks like we’re about a penny and a half away.

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Yeah, it’s hard to say. I mean, like, normally this chart comes back to around EDA for the most part the spent the most of this year. I mean, actually it’s only this year. It’s mostly last year. I mean, look at this. It was almost exclusively over know blocks premium. If you just kind of draw I guess like a line and just kind of like look at this kind of like, I guess median area.

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Right? Right. You know, eight, $0.10 over a blocks premium, give or take. Right? I guess my point is that we’re starting to get to one extreme. It’s that doesn’t just mean cheese needs to roll over, right. To correct this. I mean, the block could theoretically could come back up. Correct? I would say historically, you normally see both markets participate in some sort of correction.

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Right. So in this case the barrel coming down the block coming up to correct that spread, assuming the spread is getting corrected, we’ve seen it be, you know, inverted for sometime. If you think like the normalcy is block’s premium. Oh this one’s tough I mean this one’s really tough. Like I said you got to this 2 or 3 area.

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We’re hearing about barrels still relatively tight. We’re seeing that in the price action right. Starting to sound like blocks. Maybe shaking a little bit loses. You know we’re not as competitive in the export space anymore. It’s more of a question of, you know, how far down the calendar the exports get booked. I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if we start to see, you know, a little bit of a retracement here.

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I don’t know if the fundamentals support or like a just a complete freefall back down like an inverted the bottom. But a retracement to kind of go test I guess like the lower end of this area right here I think is in the cards. Right. You go fill this little gap right here. That’s a 182 one 82.5. So you’ve made some gaps.

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You think we’re just going straight.

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Up I know I think we’re going to 210 I think first time you go test all that resistance that we had going back into 2022.

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Right here.

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Yeah.

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Let’s do 14.

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Oh you are right. So even higher even higher.

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That’s where we’re going. So you’re saying next up 214. We’re not going to have any kind of a retracement. It’s just like straight up.

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I do believe so. Yeah. Which you’re talking. Well okay another 13 $0.14 from here I think we’re going to test that before we come back below $2 honestly.

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So you’re a buyer of general.

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Yes. Yes. From here I’d be a buyer June. Correct.

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Is it like hammer worthy buying or really just like kind of buying it?

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I’d say right now it’s kind of buying, you know, you got to see how Friday plays out because Fridays are generically, you know, could have a little bit of both ways in which we’ve been I mean, you go from 42 lower to unchanged within 15, 20 minutes in this market. And it is getting very volatile.

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It’s getting dicey. We’ve had some pretty big ranges here recently too. I mean, Monday was limit. Our good friend in the office, our new guy calling Artemis. He was saying that the whole time he was working here for like what, the first nine months, he never saw a limit that when he got to in like four days or something like that, it was nuts.

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Yeah. Yeah. It’s been some pretty nasty ranges. So. And big volume. Correct I agree I mean I agree it’s been it’s going to continue to be able to trade. I think if we’re going to keep going and I do think we can keep going beyond this price today. Right. I just think we got to get a little bit of a setback.

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I think they try to correct the spread and I think the correction of that spread will come in the form of we start to lose a little bit of export business and some barrel shake loss over time. So it’s you.

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Think the barrel comes down first before the block goes up to meet said barrel in your pullback scenario here.

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Correct. So we shall see. We’ll see I feel like you’re like that. Hammer is like.

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He wants to this year.

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You’re just I.

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Mean I I think June’s by. Yes. Is it hammer worthy. Yeah we have. Well we just heard Bryson to do right.

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Let’s start pricing next week. Next week. It’s right now bases loaded.

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Josh man you know what? Because we haven’t even started pricing. I forgot, I thought we were in the first week. June is I feel like June’s by very very hammer.

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Yeah I mean that thing just shook like I felt that over here. I just had an aftershock.

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I thought in my mind, we we just heard Bryson this week. You are correct.

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We have not we haven’t started pricing. So Carrie’s 215 and beyond like both lightly year over here. All right. Let’s talk about getting excited July.

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We speaking about getting excited.

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Speak about getting excited. All right. What do you think.

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You’re you’re not exactly sure about this. Look at that in my opinion five wave Elliott wave theory that happened.

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So 12345.

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Correct.

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So you’d be a seller here that yes.

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Yes. The RSI really seemed to jump itself up when we got up to that. What we’re at six.

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You’re talking about right here. Yep. That’s over. That’s overbought. So you’re getting some confirmation of the secondary stuff. It looks like the momentum is starting to weaken up to buy what you’re saying I guess the next stop is like do you break through this trend. And I mean there’s a clear uptrend here right.

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And I think what made me not nervous. But on the other side, I was asking and talking to you about the RSI. You’ve also got an uptrend on that particular chart itself. Yeah.

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No that’s a good point.

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So let’s because we were just you know we were kind of making some higher lows there.

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Bam. But you broke through it here recently.

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Yeah. So does that continue.

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It’s interesting. The secondary stuff charts just as well as the primary. Let’s just take a quick peek at some of yeah longer term stuff. You’ve got a pretty nice little one of those called like Shooting Star. It’s like a hammer but inverted hammers usually see the bottom of a move. I guess you’d like to see that candle red, right.

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But I see what you’re saying. I mean, you want to be a little bit careful here. So let’s say you’re right right to this trend. Where do you think we’re going?

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Oh, I think you go back down to six bucks.

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Six bucks. So right inside all this noise right here.

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Exactly. We had a little bit of support there after a pretty healthy run. Higher and down with that $6. That’s where you’ve at least right now you’ve got 100 day moving average. It’s kind of seems to be drawing this line straight across.

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Yep yep yep yep. Well I mean I mean you start to see like a pullback in some of these grains. You start to see cheese 215 and beyond. Butter’s going to $4 I guess maybe. Who knows. Be a good little day to be a dairy man

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So over here and that’s what we’re seeing.

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Let’s go. All right. So last one new crop corn. Is that right. That’s what you want.

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To look at. Yeah. These corn this.

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Is a tough one. It is. This is a super tough one. You’ve got failure to get like into a new high on the RSI. Right. And now it’s moving lower. It barely made a new high here. And when it did it didn’t like it very much at all. And you’re now bumping up against you know 100 day moving average basically touch that price on the low.

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So that price is 480 and some change. Today’s low of 40.5. To me this looks like at the very least you know the next stop is probably somewhere in here. You got to go test this uptrend. And that’s not saying that much right. That’s another dime lower from here. Go test that uptrend and then see where we go I don’t know I mean that could get a little bit dicey because then the momentum here would likely go from positive to negative at that point.

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Right. So it’s still positive but it failed to make a new high. That’s a warning sign. So you got some things that are kind of giving you a little bit of a red flag to be probably if you’re long look at at least covering or being a little bit careful, I guess I in some words, maybe just get out of futures and spy calls if you want to stay long or something like that.

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Let me ask you this, don’t you think, especially in corn, don’t you think $5 is kind of like a psychological number? I’m sure everyone’s grain, when we didn’t hit $5 three days in a row and came off that, do you think more sell side is probably chasing the market lower, pushing the market lower? We’ll see. As I get their sales.

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Well, I mean, you’d want to talk to our good friend Jim Matthews and, you know, the folks at the feed team. Right. To your point, I would equate that to like you made the comment about GM milk being super volatile. You’re right. Big ranges. You know, as soon as we get back below like $21, do you start to see dairy farmers that show up and say like, hey, we just rallied by five and a half dollars off of the low right?

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And now we’re at 21 and back below 21. Do we need to start selling? You probably are seeing something similar. You you’ll see it across any market like that right.

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Agreed.

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So wouldn’t be surprising. But yeah, I think this is in jeopardy of at least going down Tesla’s uptrend. And if it breaks through that, then you got to think it’s just like what we’re looking at in cheese right. Like where it where it touched the trend. You know kind of like the next target right. And so it’s 460 kind of around here.

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And then if it keeps going now you’re talking about another, you know shot at four and a half. But that’s it’s a long way down the road. Right. You gotta go test that trend first and see where it goes.

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I agree, that’s.

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All I know. I do know that like the foundation of my house is shaking from the hammer like the earthquake.

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I was just going to say I’ve got it on my notes here. Next week we got to go back to the weekly cheese and see which one of us is right or wrong.

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I kept a little book. I got it right here and I’ll. And I’ve got my line right there.

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So I’m saying 215. You’re saying 183.

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I’m saying the next stop we got to go do is go fill that gap right there before we have another big leg high.

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So then why don’t you fill the gap right below that at a buck 60?

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I don’t think we’re going to go fill that one. Okay. Never said that. Let’s just just relax.

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There’s also a gap there at what, 230? I mean, if we’re getting some gap, let’s let’s.

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Take it easy there. Easy.

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I’m just saying I’m not I’m.

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Not saying you’re wrong. I’m just saying, like, just just cool it over there.

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If you want to get out of control, I can play that game, too.

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Let’s get out of here.

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Awesome, everybody. Well, we appreciate you tuning into this episode of Tech Talk. Andy and I will be back in page in one week to reconfirm on.

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One week’s time.

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What it did. So until then, everyone have a fantastic weekend. It’s supposed to be beautiful before the rain comes. Have a great week next week and we’ll see you Thursday.

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