In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss spot cheese, Q3 class III and August Soybeans.
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Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is Andy. It is June 18th for reference, just about 230 central Time. 330 Eastern Time.
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What about Pacific time? And I was on the West coast.
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let’s see, what would it be? Noon. Noon 30, 1230 to.
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One, isn’t it? 130 there? No, you’re right, 1230 I, I.
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Said that three hours behind me.
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I get this all these time zones, I get mixed up.
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I know we just need to make one timezone. Just call it a career to be done with it. Kind of like or, daylight savings time. Done with that. Get rid.
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Of that. What if we were all like the metric, like just one, like metric system or something like that? Like this one. Here’s one for you. What if everybody drove on the same side of the road across the whole world?
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We’re saving too many of the world’s problems is what the problem is right now.
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You think you can drive on the left side of the road? Yeah.
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Would you drive on the left side of the steering wheel on the right though, like everyone else does? Or would you drive? You’d have to. Right. Because the way that everyone in the world drives is you’re driving. You’re driving closest to traffic. Right? So we drive on the right hand side of the road on the left side of the car closest to traffic on the other side of the world.
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Same thing opposite, but you’re on the right side.
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Would you drive your car on the left side of the road?
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Yeah, I change, I think we should keep it our way. I think we should go to the metric system, though. I think I’m sick of all these tools and measurements being. And, you know, you got standard, you got metric. All this other garbage.
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That is all the stuff going on. It’s like saving left side of the road, right side of the road. Who knows? What’s more, I’ll tell you what is going to be a standard. The red and green charts. We’re going to keep it as dead that way. I did see one. I saw something in I think it was Australia.
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They choose white and black. It’s like their bars, like white is like an open like it’s like a green candle. Right. Because it’s like a the bar is full of air and it’s rising. Whereas like a black candle is like full of lead.
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So it’s it’s a lower volume.
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it’s not excessive, you know, like red and green. I mean, like colorful, you know, you get.
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I like ours a lot better.
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Okay, good. Well, 3D.
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Rendering charts first.
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And then speaking of red and green, it’s metric system swatches. What do you think? Your boss. This is a weekly.
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This is really two days.
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This. This is two days into the into the week days.
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You know, I am afraid it’s forming an information like we talked about last time, the possibility of that happening. But to your point, I don’t see us going down to a buck 75. Fill that gap right now.
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You don’t think we’re going to fill this gap right now?
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No I don’t.
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Okay.
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In the summertime, with all the heat that’s going on and everything else in the world and.
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What about that one one 84.5? Where do we sell cheese to that 190 right on the number. I mean, 190.
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Well, that’s. So if you go back to August, September, which was a lot of resistance up there, has now, you know, totally today become support.
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Sure. So that was 188.
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So not tomorrow because markets are closed tomorrow. But Thursday and Friday are going to be a big day for this candle for sure.
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And what’s interesting too is you called it a m. I’m not quite sure I’m ready to call it an M just yet, because to me, I’m just going to disagree. I’m going to I’m going to respectfully disagree with you and say that it’s looking more like a potential pennant.
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Oh.
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For the second.
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Formation, what you have drawn there, we would kind of bounce off between a, $1.90 $9 and 98, kind of filling out that wedge that you have.
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Yeah. And and, you know, pennants are usually it’s the market kind of taking a little bit of a pause before you know more volatility. Right. And that doesn’t mean that just because that’s forming that it’s bullish or that it’s bearish. Right. It’s just saying that we’re getting ready for some sort of volatile move. Why I think that’s the case is that you have this you know, so it started here right.
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Let’s see. Might pull this bad boy up here. Hold on. And let’s let’s just let’s win this thing out okay. So you had this this candle this weekend in the 10th. Try to put it a new high here. We can in the 17th failed to put in a new low weakening the 31. Failed to put in a new high relative to this week on weekend and 14th.
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Here we are. So I guess my point is, is that if this thing let’s say we break this 188 and now we’ve put in a new low relative to the previous one, right. That’s a signal. And then if you go and fill this gap you could then retrace a significant portion of this move. And so I mean depending on where you want to draw this bad boy, it this retracement 33% retracement fills this gap doesn’t fill this one.
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You have to retrace to two thirds of the move to go and fill this gap. I agree, I don’t think we do. But a quick, you know a quick break down and then like fill in a half of that let’s say we break through this. I mean that’s possible.
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Let me ask you this. If we filled out that pendant, wouldn’t you be making a bullish flag?
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So a bull flag would be kind of more like if the price action was lower, right? Does that make sense? Rather than just trading sideways, it was kind of like slightly lower and then continued on.
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If you if you take the we’ll call the whole long term from $1.45 right up to $2. There’s the first pull, and now you’re making that wedge or the, the flag portion of it.
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Let me get rid of some stuff and show you what I think a bull flag would look like had it popped up. So it’s a good I mean, it’s a good question, right? I mean, because the two, they’re not the same.
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Right? They can make the same. Right.
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It can look the same. But a bull flag would kind of look more like that. right where you’re kind of you’re you’re you have this like, you know, a big trend higher. You have a kind of an abbreviated, like lower retracement, but in a trend, like a shorter trend. And then you break out. That’s more of a flag.
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Okay.
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This I would consider again, more of a palette just because you have you don’t have that trend sideways higher. yeah. This this high bail to put in a new low fail to put in a new high. Does this fail to put in a new low? If so, you’re going to go. But you should theoretically go back and then this like what is this 195.
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So it’s more about like that’s more of a prelude of volatility.
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And with a pennant there’s no bullish or bearish necessary necessarily. It’s just volatility is going to follow what’s coming right.
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It’s it’s the prelude right. So you have but what’s interesting about it is you have this big move up right. And now you know do you continue on. If again if you saw if we had the bull flag taking shape, I’d be a little bit more concerned about another, another rip higher. This one though, like I said, I mean, if you fail to make a new high relative here and instead you’ll put in a new low relative to this bar right here, that’s a sign of weakness.
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And you got to be kind of, I guess, wondering, do we go try to fill this? Those bad boy up in here? I think the futures market’s going to be a really big indicator there. Right, right. I think you’re going to be really mindful of like how are futures trading. Do they maintain a big premium. Are they are they not buying into the price action so to speak.
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Gotcha. Great.
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Oh like I said she’s shaping up to be an interesting one. Yeah. And you’re you’re starting to get some decent volume that’s changing hands. Yeah. And this this is really the volatility here.
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We’re finally back into the, the four digits of trading in the up for a month’s.
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Over digits count of four. So the last thing I’ll say again futures. Do you want to be really mindful what they’re doing. Futures are kind of pointing to us being more like in here somewhere up forward. Do they maintain a big premium if we see a big break in spot that’s you know, that’s a sign that that break is short lived.
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We’ll say hello. Another big one here too, you want to be mindful of over the next couple of weeks, especially with how much volatility we saw in the cash market. Forget is how business is going to play out. The are. Check out Joe Schmidt Bases Loaded to learn a little bit more about that. But there was a lot of like where we had like a 215 print in the barrel at one point during the 2012.
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How much of that got it, how much of the break got it, etc.. So that’s going to be another one to be mindful of, of, you know, use that kind of two as your guide to say like, you know, let’s say we do roll over here in the cash and you’ve got to fill this gap. How much of that was getting in when we were down there before?
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Right. Food for.
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Thought. I do appreciate you respectfully disagreeing.
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Respectfully respecting your end. So this one came at request.
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Then it did a good friend column.
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Good friend column.
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From Boston.
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And best and give me your best Boston accent.
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Go little little Boston cheese action here, though they sound like I feel like that’s what Colin sounds like.
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I just whenever I think of that, I think of I left my khakis in my khakis.
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that’s what I should have know. I like.
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Khakis in my khakis.
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Like my khakis and my khakis.
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All right. Anyways, Q3 glossary what do you want to do here, boss?
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Go looking at this chart right here. Sell it.
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yeah. Yeah, it doesn’t look good.
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After that break out there. Okay.
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We will. so a couple things about this. I’ll start with the secondary stuff. We really didn’t look at it on the last go around. We should take a look this time. So you had an attempt to get back into overbought territory right here. Right. So happened here. Try it again. Failed to do so. That’s a sign of weakness.
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This failure to get into overbought right. Conversely to what was really interesting is that what was this Thursday. Yeah this was Thursday. That was Friday. Let’s just look how this played out. You had a you had a breakout here to new contract highs. The momentum here climbed into new highs. The second one down here right. Sometimes mountain over it and then up.
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Hold on a second Richard. And look what the momentum did. And and just in that two day period when just look at that. There’s one, two one tip I mean this is a big drop in momentum. But that’s I mean just look at how this played out. I mean just opened below the previous day’s close and then close below the previous day’s low.
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Yeah. Let me say that again. Opened below the previous day’s close and closed below the previous day’s look. So you and I, we talk about it regularly. You get a breakout, you wait for the confirmation out of the next candle. How does it open? How does the next bar open? If you’re looking at a one minute chart, wait for the one one.
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Here you’re looking at a weekly way for the weekly. The next bar open. Terrible. It’s terrible.
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You know what I was looking at during that is the highs of the day or almost the same. Not the open, not the open, but the highs of those two. We’re kind of the same. And then we just retrace that whole candle but within the same time frame.
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Correct.
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And has stopped.
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Let’s take it a step further. Same logic now that we’ve broken out of this upward trend. how do we open tomorrow?
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Thursday?
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Thursday I was close.
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do you open below $20?
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Oh, that would be week.
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That would be I. To me, I think that would be the indication of weakness because, well, where do we where do we settle this, this guy here about 2010, ten, 2010.
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This. So this shows 20 1020. You can get the exact settlement. But I mean again dew point like you get a close below $20. This pack hasn’t seen a close below $20 since the end of May. Right. That’s that’s a sign of weakness. So again want to be mindful. You have this you have this breakout. We just saw a breakout three days ago.
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So we have three days in a row like this. The question is do we open lower and solidify this breakout get through what is what it has been support a few times 20. It broke out from 20 bucks. Check popped again does it active support again. So I don’t know if I want to get overly short after this.
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Like until we get the confirmation of the breakout. And then the question is, you know, where do you start to run the support? First line I can try to draw it here, but it’s all this noise and let’s let’s get a price for you guys thinking about like around 19 a half easy math right. Kind of this like where really where this where this candle broke out from.
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Right on eight. So call it 19.5. We’ll see. So on Thursday.
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Thursday.
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Not tomorrow. We’re close on Wednesday. Thursday. We’ll see how it opens. Roger that. What’s your bet? What are you thinking I.
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Think I mean, the way that things have been trading recently, I think we’re going to open up at that close. I think we’re gonna open up at 2010. It’s quarter three, so it’s right up front. I mean, the volatility is going to be in these months right here. Right. Just like we saw today I think we’re going to open up right at 2010.
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And then kind of dictate what cheese does for us I would agree.
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And and you know what’s interesting too is July closed through here but also settled 40 to 70. Is that also settled 30 points off the low.
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It did.
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So the market certainly didn’t like trading that 19 half price initially.
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Because I’m not. Something that happened is we have to remind everyone that this Friday we have the, milk production report. And what could happen is we might have a slow day Thursday, maybe a little bit of a slow day into Friday. People really want to see what this milk production report looks like. If we start banging out numbers like -0.8, -1%, I think that’s going to have a bigger market, you know, move on the charts and anything at this point, don’t you?
00;12;59;27 – 00;13;14;03
I would agree, no. Production seems to be front and center on people at least conversations I have. Right. Next up, we want to make sure does this bad boy open lower. That’s a confirmation of this breakout. Next stop would be 19.5. Look out. So good requests appreciate it Collin.
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Boston gallon.
00;13;15;19 – 00;13;20;01
As the last but not least this came in your request. And I.
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Request. Let me let me ask you this okay. So looking at this chart we retraced half of what we lost yesterday. Pretty big downtick day right? We’re all in the green yesterday 22 lower, 23 lower. If you go back to 430 of 2024.
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For 31 and 24.
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And you’re right right there, right there. It’s kind of eerie similar to.
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What we had.
00;13;45;24 – 00;13;52;28
All very similar. Do you think what do you think is going to happen with the Open Up on Thursday for beans.
00;13;53;01 – 00;14;22;23
Look at this open the next day. It seems like it seems like 11.5 is a number the market does not like to be like. It’s it seems to not like to sit still at that price. Right. Is. Don’t we want to go back there, here in Europe to your point. early mid that said what’s I don’t understand this as well is that the relationship between September and August but step the next month out took that that took that 11.5 number and said I don’t think so.
00;14;22;23 – 00;14;42;13
We’re going to 11 quarter. So now those are two separate months I get it. But to me I just look at that and I say I want to be a little bit cautious to say that we’re just going to rip higher from here because the next month out is saying that’s not the case for us. So that said, just like here, how does this bad boy open the next day?
00;14;42;13 – 00;14;55;04
Because I would I would kind of I guess the first thing that came to my mind when I saw this is what if you had like an itsy bitsy little red candle like this guy tomorrow there’s a right. This guy right there. That would be a sign of weakness.
00;14;55;06 – 00;15;07;13
It would be, and I think, tell me if I’m wrong. I think you can be talking about August specifically. You can be long on the open and you know you’re going to be wrong if we start trading below 1140. Right. The contract lows from before.
00;15;07;15 – 00;15;28;26
Oh yeah. I mean, that’s a clear at the very least if you’re looking to get long, you have a nice healthy indication of where you’re wrong. Yes. Right. If that’s if that’s your bias and that’s what you want to be doing. Kudos. You start talking about 1140 type trade. You. Now you’re starting to bang into new like especially from a satellite perspective to now you’re starting to bang in a new lows.
00;15;28;27 – 00;15;44;21
That’s a sign of weakness. I just caution you on the from alongside, at least just because of what September’s telling us. That price. Oh about that price. Now that sets up. Could just rip your face off. It could be, what you call the bottom there. I don’t know, but I think at the very least, you got to be really careful.
00;15;44;21 – 00;16;01;26
And if but if you did open higher and then started trading above today’s high, which is 11 59.75 called start trading 1160, you could then you start to run the risk of a candle like this. So you kind of have a little bit of optionality there, right? Like I don’t think I’d be buying it until you cleared yesterday’s high.
00;16;01;28 – 00;16;10;06
And I think if you wanted to not wait for that, you could at least know that you’re wrong. If you started to trade below that, you know, the prices. We just looked at.
00;16;10;08 – 00;16;12;11
The 1140. Yeah.
00;16;12;14 – 00;16;31;19
I just when I look at this like I said, the first thing that popped in my mind was an itsy bitsy little candle like this. Before you get a wicked one like this that the downside. That’s what I be kind of like go like this. Oh yeah. But it’s like those goats that like, they’re getting super close and then they have to back off.
00;16;31;21 – 00;16;33;12
You know what I’m talking about.
00;16;33;14 – 00;16;34;19
Unfortunately, I do.
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Unfortunately, you do.
00;16;36;12 – 00;16;38;01
I unfortunately I do.
00;16;38;01 – 00;16;41;18
I could see you being like a really good zookeeper or something like that.
00;16;41;20 – 00;16;43;18
I like to a suit, you know.
00;16;43;18 – 00;16;45;28
You know, I mean, you like pets, so, like, maybe you, like.
00;16;45;28 – 00;16;52;29
Maybe I like how you let me go from buying pets and having a or a house to being a full blown zookeeper at the zoo.
00;16;53;01 – 00;16;53;10
00;16;53;17 – 00;17;00;05
Embracing what? They have an astronaut, by the way. Don’t forget to like and subscribe to the channel here, everybody. We’re still trying to get to 10,000 likes.
00;17;00;05 – 00;17;01;07
I could see you in space.
00;17;01;11 – 00;17;04;10
It’s a good pep talk for a Tuesday morning. Afternoon is afternoon.
00;17;04;12 – 00;17;08;23
Is afternoon right, isn’t it? I think so, what if you, like, raised a lion from like a cub?
00;17;08;29 – 00;17;12;07
Have you seen the Tiger King?
00;17;12;10 – 00;17;14;07
Yeah, I have.
00;17;14;10 – 00;17;16;07
Hasn’t seen. That. Could be me.
00;17;16;09 – 00;17;22;10
That could be you. But just be lions and like. Like tigers and not going to prison in the end. But spoiler.
00;17;22;13 – 00;17;25;08
Right? Yes. If you haven’t seen spoiler spoiler.
00;17;25;11 – 00;17;30;09
Spoiler alert I don’t. I know you’re still working on Game of Thrones Season one episode one, so no spoilers there.
00;17;30;12 – 00;17;34;10
I like it. All right, well, any appreciate your insight today on TikTok?
00;17;34;10 – 00;17;36;03
You know, thanks for your insight, by the way.
00;17;36;05 – 00;17;53;08
We’re getting good at this. We’re getting really good at this. We’re flowing really well, moving really well. Well, everyone appreciate you tuning in watching. If you would not mind, please like subscribe, give us a thumbs up and tell all your friends and neighbors about TikTok. We are still trying to get to 10,000 subscribers at least.
00;17;53;10 – 00;17;55;09
Zookeeper tell your local zookeeper.
00;17;55;12 – 00;18;03;15
That’s right, tell everyone. Driver, tell the mailman 10,000 subscribers by the end of the year. This 30th is our goal. I know you say bye.
00;18;03;15 – 00;18;04;08
You. By the way.
00;18;04;11 – 00;18;09;22
I have to check into it. I have no idea. So please, guys.
00;18;09;24 – 00;18;18;16
Come prepared to discuss, like next time, because I think we’re on to something here. You know, there’s no zoo by you.
00;18;18;19 – 00;18;21;28
thanks for tuning in, everybody. You. Next time. Bye.
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