In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss weekly cheese, natural gas and July wheat.
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Future trading involves risk and not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this book is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
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Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is Andy. It is June 6th, 2024 Thursday afternoon. Right now.
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Thursday afternoon, soon to be Tuesday. I think next week we’re making a little switcheroo. Is that right?
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It’s that we got to make a switch. We’re going to Tuesdays.
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On Switcheroo Tuesday, so mark your calendar Tuesday TikTok. Be there. It’s not like the old days where you had to like you had to be in front of your TV to watch the show at like 8 p.m. when it came out on Monday night or Tuesday night or something. It’s just because they just don’t have any. They just have no, there’s no idea what’s going on.
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There’s no streaming. It’s crazy.
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Back in the old days, the good old days, the.
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Good old days, right? Saturday morning cartoons and stuff like that, like bring that back.
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So I have that. I would love it and that’s it.
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Got DeGraff. Got it. We’re going back to Saturday morning cartoons. There’s everything else going.
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It’s going man. Getting hot out there, getting a little warm throughout the country seems like. Right. It’s beginning of June and there’s some people posting some some 90 degree temperatures.
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It’s like very like standard to just start randomly talking about the weather. By the way, here’s what we should talk about. Cicadas. Do you have any.
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I don’t after I moved out of Chicago.
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Any cicadas?
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I never heard a noise.
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In my head when.
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I moved to Chicago. I didn’t know what that buzzing was until I think Pete told me what they were.
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Okay.
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The bugs. I had no idea.
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Come on by. We got 1 or 2 floating around there everywhere. It’s crazy. I think this is it. This is like the year of Cicadas or something like that. I’ll send people pictures on here. I don’t know, the cicadas impact milk production, I guess not. They seem to be localized here. I don’t know what’s going on there everywhere.
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It’s only a Chicago thing.
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Only by you not affecting anybody.
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Never heard a cicada here in Michigan in my life.
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Never heard one in my life. What about cheese? You heard about cheese? I heard.
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About some.
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Cheese. I heard about some cheese. Cheese? What do you think? Your boss. I think this is a little gap brewski that you had there last time, I think.
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So here’s a question, though. I guess that we’re $1.90 cheese right now. The gap is at 184 or 85.
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Yes, sir.
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You think we fill that?
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I think it’s possible to go fill this one. This guy. This one, though I’m not so sure. I don’t think we go in, fill this one. This one, though, I think we can’t. I know, it just seems like you’re starting to see some more. I guess more sell side in the barrel. It’s something that’s been somewhat kind of lacking here.
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You know, barrel got way over the block and now you’re starting to see some more sellers show up. And a little bit of a fight today, right? I mean the barrel that’s settle opening higher trading 11 loads. It’s you get the sense especially you know heading into the summer months doesn’t seem like it’s overly abundant, doesn’t seem like domestic demand is all that great.
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And exports. You saw some pretty solid export numbers today. To me, it seems like we could just have a little bit of a setback, retrace some of this, then go fill this gap. Maybe not this one.
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Speaking of the block and barrel, we were kind of narrowing that gap of the barrel being over the block, and after today we widened it yet again.
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Let’s take a little quick little peek ski at that thing. So block barrel right. Is that right. Black arrow black means barrel. There it is. Yep. So we were looking at it when it was like way, started to get kind of nasty and didn’t go back to the some of those previous lows, but it was certainly pretty wide.
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I mean, this chart I guess if you want to look at this one real fast, I mean, if this starts to break out, it’s at least looking like it’s got some room to go test back in here, which would be more like, what is that? Call it a nickel over.
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Historically, black is over barrel by what, three and a half, $0.04.
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Three. Usually 3 to $0.04. Yeah. I mean but going back historically. But I mean look at all this volatility we’ve seen here lately. But go back to the change real fast I think you and I are in agreeance. We’re looking for the barrel to come down to fill that gap potentially. Do you think the black comes down.
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To I don’t think the black comes down. Not very much. So if we were to fill that gap, what does that really three okay. So blocks already at a dollar 84.5. Right now I just don’t see the black coming down that much. Maybe slightly. But.
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So you’re a block lover barrel hater right now.
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After today’s session, I don’t even know if I’m a better leader, to be completely honest.
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You’re not hating anything. All love for Cody, right? Let’s end.
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I think it’ll be a quick trip. Like, it’ll be A12 day kind of drop fall heart, which is only five $0.07 away from it right now. And then we take the price cheese back higher just to fill that gap. Personal opinion. Verna, the amount of cheese that we even traded today was surprising to me.
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I was surprised too. I will I will certainly admit to the same. I was a little bit surprised to see buyers get a little bit more aggressive in the barrel and be willing to take on 11 loads. 11 loads. Yeah, and we’ve seen days where we traded 20 plus. Right. But I mean this is still quite a bit of cheese to trade hands at.
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Were barrels premium like this. And so we’ll.
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See. The buyers just weren’t there yesterday. And also they just came back in droves today.
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I agree that we need to step back. I think we got to fill that gap. I think you got to get ready if you’re short, get out and look to start getting a little bit long to agree. So this will be a little bit of a dicey one though. Cheese market. It’s whipping around that. What else is whipping around.
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This came at request and it.
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Did a good friend colleague Bryce.
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Shout out to Bryce. This is natural gas not the gas it comes out of. Well back side. This is nat gas here. So I don’t know I mean what do you what do you think your boss.
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Well we just closed above the 20 day moving average today, which is looking a little bit more bullish than it was. Hold on. We closed up a 100 day moving average today.
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That was the 100.
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So yeah.
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For all those viewers out there let me put that bad boy back in you will. And look at the 20 day. Is that right?
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I was just looking. Now we actually were over 100. So either one.
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All right. So that’s the 20 day okay. So lucky 72777. Look at that. That’s what that thing closed that that’s interesting I mean like when you look at this candle right here engulfed and then closed above it, it’s kind of like a megaphone almost. They traditionally kind of get wider like this. And as that volatility increases, it’s a prelude to like a breakout, right.
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In this case the breakout appears to be to the upside. So to your point you got 777 lucky seven and a breakout. That looks good.
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It does looks bullish.
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Then the weekly this is the weekly. That’s looking pretty good to me yet. And I still would like to have seen it get up in the erratic order. But I mean still a double bottom. This looks like it’s got at least a trade up into this noise. Three bucks.
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That is.
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Correct. So what are you doing? You’re buying some that. Guess you can put it away.
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Yeah, we have broken out of I mean, we were kind of in a lull there for a little bit between February and May. It really move a whole lot and all of a sudden get a little more perky here.
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Got a little perky but expensive.
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Watch out.
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How do you like a spell? Perky, by the way, what’s your what’s your spelling of perky PR? Okay, okay, I heard somebody spell it p u r Katie the other day, and I was kind of like, yeah, but it’s like they were like saying because it’s like a cat. Purrs. But it’s like PR.
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Okay, take your word for it.
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You can take my word for it. Or you can get a cat already. I mean, like, I’ll.
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Take your word.
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For you. Not even like a hamster or something like that. You have like, a hamster in the background. It’s like the little wheel and stuff like that. And it’s just you could get two hamsters name one tag and one tag. I would be pretty sweet.
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yeah.
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So. All right, so we’re buying that. Guess that looks good. Last one. This also came out request right there.
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I think we looked at this before. We looked at July week a couple weeks ago. Brandon was asking about five weevil theories and we were talking about how this actually played out to a five wave Elliott theory. And then, I mean, if you would have held on for four days, you would have been wrong but still played out.
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Well, let’s just play this out. So he had one two. This is where it gets a little bit tricky right. Is this wave three right here. It should be about an initial 20 to 30% bigger than this one.
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Oh I had my drawing.
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You take this guy and lay it on top. It’s an additional 20 to 30%. Probably actually go like that. Right. And so then let’s take this bad boy back down. Right. And then you take this is wave four. And then wave five is almost always, you know, considered like the exhaustion wave. Right. The market is difficult to find, like new buyers to get long after that whole move and people that are starting to blow out and you start to see open.
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Maybe I haven’t looked at open interest for Wheatland if it was declining, it would certainly add to that argument. But then you also had a clear break through this trend and then followed up with an open lower, and you started to lose quite a bit of momentum. If you look here, we also got overbought and came back down.
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So there was quite a bit that was kind of giving you some warning signs. Right. And if you just look at that open right there. Right. So it’s not that close through it. It’s the open the next day supplemented with clear weakness and some of these secondary stuff too.
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Here’s my question on this because I had mine drawn differently and and actually played out exactly to a tee. So I had the first wave, which you have there.
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Hang on. You should share your screen.
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All right. So it’s still July week. So here was my wave one okay.
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Wait a minute. You said you already drew on me.
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Well and then I deleted them.
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Okay.
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I swear to you, I swear to you, I had these drawn.
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All right, I’ll take your word for it.
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Year number two.
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Okay.
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Here is number three. Okay. Now, here’s where you and I differ. Here’s number four for me okay. In this was number five. So selling orders at 689. Call it right. Get filled. We break promptly for the next four days looking just like, you know, wave theory should. Right? Then you get down here and we promptly take ourselves back higher.
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So here’s my question to you. You had it drawn. One, two, three. Why did you skip out on this little break in the middle here?
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Because the third wave should always be the biggest, right?
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So if I take this third wave and I overlay it, it’s the same thing, right?
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Yeah. So like so you have to take that same line and compare it against your first one.
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It’s smaller I see what you’re saying.
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So, so.
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Even though we broke you still considering that part of this third.
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Again it’s all theory right? I mean who knows. Traditionally like the third one should be the biggest one. And should be anywhere from 20 to 30% bigger. Right. And so you take the first line and add if you get like a specific amount of like movement, right, you can just take that spread and just multiply it by like 1.25, 1.3 or something like that.
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And you get what that next one should be.
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Okay? So no matter what the third leg should always be in theory usually.
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Yeah. But hey look, it went right to your lines. So I’m not going to I’m not going to say, you know, like I say anything about it.
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I was feeling like a genius for about four days in a row.
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And since you aren’t a genius, I mean, like, come on, like, promptly.
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I mean, within one day retraced all of all we can.
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So either way, like, depending on how you want to look at it, that whole theory played out. Yeah, right. If you subscribe more to the idea that the third wave should be the 130% versus wait one, it broke through that uptrend pretty aggressively though it did.
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So going back to 50% retracement then.
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This looks like it wants to do more personally. But I hear what you’re saying. I mean you could run into some traffic here but like how aggressive it’s rolling over and it seems like you’ve got like you’ve got the RSI momentum pulled up too. Yeah. You’ve got some room on that RSI to continue to break. I got is, is that this thing just keeps rolling over with how aggressive some of these candles have been.
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Okay. Well it’s a good learning opportunity because I had mine drawn differently than you. And that’s why I wanted to ask if I was just completely out of the wrong doing that.
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Here’s a thought. What if you’ve got, like, a giant parrot and named him like Elliot or Wave and only like page? And I would know in all of our loyal viewers, I just.
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I don’t know if I how I feel about pets.
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I’ve heard parrots are really cool, like I’m.
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Sure they are true.
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They’re like a two can or something like that with those like big bills.
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Beaks.
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Beaks, bills, whatever. I mean, I don’t know, just just give an animal it.
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I had three fish once they.
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Died and I since I do to answered my question right for as I can say I that go.
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I was changing their water to clean my brother bottom for me when I moved back here as a joke, and I was cleaning their water and I that the water was too hot and I put them back in.
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Boil them, cooked.
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Them all three.
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Remind me not to be a guest at your house. Something like that. Feel free to like you could swing by my house and they’re like math. I said, the hotel. I don’t need to get cooked alive or.
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Not over there. Just a little bit. A little bit too hot there. All right. Well, appreciate the insights on that. And, appreciate Brandon and Bryce reaching out with their two requests C and B, B and B. Don’t be. So we have for Tech Talk today everyone we appreciate you tuning in. If you have not please subscribe to the channel.
00;11;32;03 – 00;11;46;21
Hit that notification bell. Give us a thumbs up. Give us a like. And we’re still trying to get to 10,000 subscribers. I think we’re getting closer by the day. If I’m not mistaken. We’re only a few away right now, so if you would please help us get to that end goal by December 30th, we would be eternally grateful for every turn.
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Only grateful to be eternally grateful.
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We’d like to be giving a shout out to Paige and Lexi, as we are eternally grateful for their wisdom on how we should move forward with TikTok.
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Their wise wisdom. Well.
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They used to tell us what to do and don’t do before the shows, so I.
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Know what I’m not doing. I’m not signing any fish, like that’s for sure.
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Doesn’t me any fish, I don’t care, I don’t need them.
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Don’t send them any fish or you don’t even know how to put a get them on a couch or something like that. Just hanging out. I have these fish flopping around on the couch.
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All right, everybody, with that.
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Next episode, Cody gets Botox. So we’ll see.
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You next time.
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See you later.
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