In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss November soybeans, CME cheese and August milk.
Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.
Charts sourced from Ever.Ag Platform.
[bg_collapse color=”#004053″ icon=”arrow” expand_text=”Show Transcript” collapse_text=”Hide Transcript” ]
(Transcipt auto-generated)
00;00;00;21 – 00;00;10;00
Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this site. Map is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
00;00;10;02 – 00;00;19;01
Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk I am Cody. This is Andy coming to us live from Illinois. How you doing?
00;00;19;03 – 00;00;20;23
I’m doing well. How are you?
00;00;20;25 – 00;00;22;27
Well said. We know a little bit of a kick.
00;00;23;02 – 00;00;31;08
Wait, wait a minute. Did you just say we’re coming to you live from Illinois? But what you envision, you said. But you said we. You live in Michigan.
00;00;31;11 – 00;00;32;02
It’s the. Unless.
00;00;32;05 – 00;00;34;11
Here’s the editorial. We like.
00;00;34;11 – 00;00;35;21
Editorial. We. It’s the team.
00;00;35;23 – 00;00;40;05
Teamwork. Yeah, but it’s. How hard is it by you right now?
00;00;40;06 – 00;00;43;21
My phone says it’s 92 with 65% humidity.
00;00;43;21 – 00;00;44;25
It’s so hot right now.
00;00;45;00 – 00;00;45;18
So hot.
00;00;45;18 – 00;00;48;06
Right now. Did you get any tornadoes yesterday, by the way?
00;00;48;09 – 00;00;53;05
Yeah, we had tornadoes. We had a lot of wind. I think you guys had the tornadoes. I didn’t hear of anyone touching down here.
00;00;53;05 – 00;01;15;12
So when we had a couple two, three tornadoes around here. Touchdown I guess I know I get a little dicey. We had to go in the basement. It’s dangerous out here, though. We’re all here. So to lighten things up a little bit, in light of tornadoes and all this heat and the extreme heat and stuff like that, we’re paying homage today to Collins and his excellent use that word sparingly joke telling.
00;01;15;12 – 00;01;25;20
What did the teacher do with the students or with Mr. Logan? What did the teacher do with the students? Report on cheese. Go I don’t know, she graded it.
00;01;25;22 – 00;01;27;20
Oh yeah.
00;01;27;21 – 00;01;33;19
I thought my jokes were bad. so I guess the first and last joke will happen here. I don’t know, we’ll see.
00;01;33;24 – 00;01;35;23
Our fans, I’m sure, will appreciate that.
00;01;35;23 – 00;01;38;20
Well, you know, they’ll appreciate.
00;01;38;23 – 00;01;39;13
You tell.
00;01;39;16 – 00;01;42;18
Charts. Let’s go to church today.
00;01;42;18 – 00;01;44;21
Two, two of them came at requests.
00;01;44;21 – 00;01;51;24
Two of them came a request. First one came a request internally from Erica. Thank you very much for the request. Keep them coming.
00;01;51;25 – 00;01;52;19
New crop.
00;01;52;21 – 00;02;12;22
No beans. No beans I threw. I wrote in there. See? see you later. Beans. The spin. So let me, let me just do something here all fast. Let’s lower these guys and so we can look more just at the price section of the chart. Jelly, this has been. I mean, what’s interesting is that ever since it made this double top right here.
00;02;12;25 – 00;02;33;28
So just go back to this right here it is just been like, see you later, alligator in a while, crocodile. What’s interesting is it broke. Right. So 11 bucks and it’s like this. This happened right here. And it seemed like it was maybe trying to potentially break itself out and then like, no, sir. Not happening. Not today I mean look at this.
00;02;34;00 – 00;02;57;04
Damn. See you later. Since then I mean it’s just been in another freefall. It’s tough to say when this thing’s going to come back, you know, like a check out like grain feed and all that stuff with Jim and Jake and all those good folks about learning more about, like, the fundamental piece of it. But if you want to just talk like just about like the sharpness of it, I mean, this, this attempt to break out right here and just complete rejection and just continued weakness through 11 bucks like that.
00;02;57;04 – 00;03;09;15
That’s just such a sign of weakness like this. That’s brutal. Right. You know, and I’m sure there was some short covering that went on. I’m sure there was, you know, some of the others that like, maybe people took a shot at like I could see, you know, taking a shot at getting a little long.
00;03;09;18 – 00;03;12;05
Can you, though? I mean, can yo.
00;03;12;08 – 00;03;20;29
I hear you? But I pulled up, so I pulled up some of the secondary stuff. Right. So we’ll look at the RSI first. It’s in oversold territory now.
00;03;21;01 – 00;03;21;20
Right.
00;03;21;22 – 00;03;39;03
And it’s well inside oversold territory for here. It was kind of bumping around there. Didn’t really get into it and came quickly back out. So it’s tough to say that it got into oversold territory. But here in this case it crossed that threshold on the ninth and has been there ever since. So that’s a sign of like, you know, kind of like a warning bell.
00;03;39;03 – 00;03;57;01
Like maybe this maybe you should be considering lightning up. Assuming this crosses back above the blue. So that would be the signal, right. Like you can you can stay oversold for for a prolonged period of time and continue to break. But it’s not this isn’t telling you to just get out and get long. This is telling you that like there’s kind of a warning sign.
00;03;57;06 – 00;04;16;08
And if it crosses back above here, maybe it’s time to think about at least doing something like getting out, buying some calls, maybe just, I don’t know, but something to where you’re at least lighting up your risk, right? The momentum, too, is kind of like it’s it’s hasn’t broken this previous low from this is back in the 12.
00;04;16;10 – 00;04;36;14
So it’s well it’s well below zero has been for I mean gosh since it had that double top right. Once it had that double top and then confirmed it. I mean it’s just been negative momentum this whole time. Even here it tried to cross back over zero and just was like a nope, that’s not today. But we’re approaching former lows and are struggling to get further lower than that.
00;04;36;20 – 00;04;56;22
That’s probably terrible English. My wife would be unhappy about that one. But yeah, I mean this is no good at right here. So you want to be super careful. I mean both of the RSI momentum is kind of telling you like be a little bit careful because it’s back above oversold. This is telling you were approaching previous lows and and potentially struggling potentially significantly.
00;04;56;24 – 00;05;14;09
We started looking at a new indicator. By the way did we talk about this one. You know. So we’ll we’ll go ahead and share a little links link. What do you like. What do you like to call them. Link. People always always keep a link. Link PW I think I think I think both are interchangeable terms for you page.
00;05;14;09 – 00;05;38;27
It’s just she’s done. She’s added. So we’ll include a little link PW about Money Flow index. But basically it’s it talks about it’s basically a look at combination of both price action and volume. So it it moves lower in a more pronounced way as price action breaks on higher volume. So the idea that price action is confirmed by more volume, right.
00;05;38;27 – 00;05;53;11
If you have a big update with volumes portable super low, then the Money Flow index won’t move necessarily as much as if there was a big update plus a ton of volume. I like this one. I sort of use it a little bit more. Basically, it kind of sits between this range. I’m trying to see if I can.
00;05;53;11 – 00;05;53;24
There we go.
00;05;53;27 – 00;05;59;11
So let me ask you this. Would that be more of like, open interest indicator on an on an actual.
00;05;59;11 – 00;06;01;16
Doesn’t it doesn’t use open interest.
00;06;01;18 – 00;06;02;05
It does.
00;06;02;07 – 00;06;22;05
At least this one doesn’t. So let me remove a couple 2 or 3 things here and just say like okay, here’s the price action. The nice part about Money Flow Index is that it’s really good is like a divergent indicator, meaning like as this thing starts to go up, what it’s saying is that the days that are higher have greater volume than the days that are lower.
00;06;22;07 – 00;06;41;11
And so it’s a nice it’s a nice divergent indicator meaning like as this moves higher from, you know, in this case below 25 towards like 50, even price action is breaking. It’s telling you that like the price action is breaking unless volume relative to the days that it’s going price action, you have days that are higher like that volumes better.
00;06;41;11 – 00;07;05;18
So it’s it’s a really nice way to like look at it and say like, well, if money flow index is moving higher and price is moving lower, that’s another indicator that says like the price action isn’t being confirmed by price and volume. Interesting. The secondary stuff is not necessarily confirming the continued weakness here. And so if I’d be a little bit a little bit little careful about saying overly short, at least at the very least considering doing something to existing shorts.
00;07;05;18 – 00;07;07;15
Buy call selling puts in something.
00;07;07;22 – 00;07;23;21
I looked at a monthly chart and I’m going to disagree. The monthly looks okay. Not good. Yikes. I talked about looking at these charts on a longer term scale and I mean, nothing there is telling me that I want to step in right here and own it by any means.
00;07;23;23 – 00;07;30;16
I hear you, I want it to. I mean, it’s no good. All right, let’s take a look at the. Yeah, this is a weekly. That’s that doesn’t look all that great.
00;07;30;19 – 00;07;31;09
No, I.
00;07;31;09 – 00;07;41;10
Hear you loud and clear. The monthly is definitely looking week. And it’s after several months of this kind of like, whatever you want to call the sideways. You know, this price action in this, you could actually call this a bear flag to.
00;07;41;13 – 00;07;48;04
That’s exactly kind of what I thought it was. I mean, it’s starting to look just like we have them in Melt the Bear flag and then we go.
00;07;48;07 – 00;07;56;03
Are you able to be bearish like is that do you have like I guess you have right clicking capability on your mouse because unless you rip that part of the.
00;07;56;03 – 00;08;00;04
Mouse off, I got a new one from Amazon Prime Day. Shout out Jeff Bezos.
00;08;00;11 – 00;08;15;12
You got yourself a new one for two tubes of toothpaste and a brand new mouse coming in a hot all of like 12 bucks goading here is that’s it. It was your birthday. The other day, by the way. So is that what you got yourself your birthday for? To the toothpaste and a mouse.
00;08;15;14 – 00;08;17;20
I was waiting for Prime Day just to get them cheaper.
00;08;17;22 – 00;08;21;03
Then how about it? You. Happy birthday.
00;08;21;05 – 00;08;22;10
Thank you. I appreciate that.
00;08;22;13 – 00;08;38;15
I think we beaten beans to death. I mean, I like you and I are of a different opinion. I do think the price action continues to break. I’m just looking at the secondary stuff and saying, you want to be a little bit careful. Yeah. the monthly definitely suggesting more weakness. We have still what, a couple weeks before the month end.
00;08;38;20 – 00;08;55;11
Right. So there’s still some time to two weeks. So let’s see how the next candle play like opens up. That’ll be a big that’ll really set the tone for like for August trade right. Like you assuming you stick this close which will be a new monthly clothes or new monthly. All right. I mean, what was last time we were down here?
00;08;55;14 – 00;08;56;24
this 2020.
00;08;56;24 – 00;08;57;10
Right.
00;08;57;12 – 00;09;19;03
You got to go way back all the way back to 2020 here. Right. So assuming you close it here and then open lower, you know, August 1st, that’s that’s a sign of weakness. And it’s, you know, suggesting ten bucks. Yeah. Right. Ten bucks is really I mean obviously was a big number going back all these years. And it’s where you really start to accelerate once you broke through it.
00;09;19;06 – 00;09;29;19
So $10. Oh can you buy an Amazon Prime for ten bucks. I mean how much did this find. Now we’ll find out. All right. So we have another one I have another request in there. Right.
00;09;29;21 – 00;09;38;16
Just kind of by request, I mean he’s when he’s been chirping about it enough, we’re going to say it’s my request. Mr. Turpin and Brian Fletcher. Turpin. Turpin watches just Turpin.
00;09;38;18 – 00;10;00;03
Turpin. So I look at this and say like to me, it’s, I look at the longer term picture and say that this looks this looks like it has the potential to be somewhat of a, of a, a bull flag. mainly because when you think about this whole move from here to here, you’re talking about 150 to 2 bucks, basically.
00;10;00;05 – 00;10;26;13
Yep. Significant move. And since then the market has basically retraced over the last 1 to 3 four, five, six, seven, eight, nine weeks, including this week. The market has retraced very little of that move from here basically to there. So let’s get rid of this for a second. That’s the biggest fight with the bears we’ve been able to put up since going moving the contract $0.50 a pound.
00;10;26;15 – 00;10;29;25
That’s just not that much. That’s $1.88.
00;10;29;28 – 00;10;35;28
It feels like it’s just been a slow bleed lower from $2 to, what do we have? Not sure.
00;10;36;00 – 00;10;36;05
For.
00;10;36;05 – 00;10;38;00
Sure. 87.5 for sure.
00;10;38;00 – 00;11;01;15
I think you got to be really careful of this potentially being a bull flag, and you’ll get a confirmation, I think, like the biggest confirmation will come if you break through this downtrend right here, which would which would be roughly around. We got a lot of lines going here on call called like 192 193. Like let’s say I mean let’s just like we’ll handicap a little bit and say 195 close.
00;11;01;17 – 00;11;09;25
Basically you get a close around here, you break through this downtrend, you complete this bull flag. That is a sign of strength.
00;11;09;27 – 00;11;27;22
So here’s my question. Before we get to that sign of strength, is there many people asking you about this? There’s two gaps on this chart. The first one is as a dollar it $1.83. Right. We go to a buck 83 cheese. We fill that gap. Do we fill that first before we try to get the confirmation on the bull flag?
00;11;27;24 – 00;11;29;03
I don’t think so.
00;11;29;05 – 00;11;30;04
You don’t think so?
00;11;30;07 – 00;11;33;15
I don’t think so. And gaps are unfinished business.
00;11;33;18 – 00;11;36;10
We are $0.04 away from that right now. And you don’t think that’s going to happen?
00;11;36;10 – 00;12;01;03
I don’t I really don’t think so. Like you think about what happened the other day with with the lot of selling in the barrel like around 199, you know, that it was clear one, you know, high one 90s. It was clear that price they didn’t like that price. But when you when you start to talk about getting back down to like around 185 184, it seemed like a lot of more buy side interest coming into the futures never really gave much, but the futures never really broke that much beyond like 196.
00;12;01;06 – 00;12;01;28
Correct.
00;12;02;00 – 00;12;19;11
Up front of this. Right. And so there’s an incentive for buyers, those taking on cash on that price. And it seems like they want it. They think they’re willing to take ownership there. Fine. I just I look at it and say you don’t necessarily have to fill these gaps. Now we’ve had unfinished we’ve had unfinished business for a long time right here.
00;12;19;13 – 00;12;36;00
You remember this one correctly. I also don’t want to get filled. Yep. So that doesn’t mean that we can’t go like rip higher and then like, you know, we get into the fall, you know, we get past like, you know, getting ready for football and schools in and let out and all holiday stuff is done and also you right.
00;12;36;01 – 00;12;53;02
You can you completely hit a wall with like seasonal demand and we just fall out of bed and all of a sudden these gaps are just big targets and they get filled really quickly. Kind of the feeling that I get from that just my opinion, but I look at it and say, like, what’s happening right here is look to me seems like more of a bull flag than anything.
00;12;53;04 – 00;12;54;00
So we’ll see.
00;12;54;02 – 00;13;07;23
Okay, I just figured us reinforce sense away today where we sit from a gap. I was like, well, it would make sense to maybe show that. And you don’t protrude higher if you will protrude, but you’re saying we’re going higher?
00;13;07;26 – 00;13;10;17
Are you like reading the dictionary now or something like that?
00;13;10;19 – 00;13;11;23
Throw some words in the tech.
00;13;11;24 – 00;13;13;04
Word of the day there, like.
00;13;13;09 – 00;13;16;29
Make it a little bit more spicy if you will.
00;13;17;01 – 00;13;23;05
You know there’s a little bit more spicy. Well, I already added a bad joke. So we can start adding in some words that have more than two syllables.
00;13;23;05 – 00;13;28;20
So I mean, it’s our show. We can do whatever we want as long as page says it’s all right. We don’t go chart though. One more chart.
00;13;28;20 – 00;13;35;20
We do have one more chart for just for Supreme Leader page. We do have one more chart. August milk. Okay. Yeah.
00;13;35;23 – 00;13;36;26
Class three.
00;13;36;29 – 00;13;56;28
August class three. Let me get rid of this real fast. Get rid of that, or either get rid of all this stuff. So this is you know, this has been an interesting one because you had this potential head and shoulders. We argued, I think you and I talked about it was like basically here. Right. And then the second shoulder was called like around here.
00;13;57;00 – 00;14;16;03
Right. And you can make it certain to make the argument the 20 bucks was like the neckline. And it broke through it and we started it ago. And then it just failed when you had this session and then bam, that one. And we started coming back and putting around it, starting to look a little bit like a w a small one.
00;14;16;05 – 00;14;33;26
Right. So you have somewhat of a potential failed head and shoulders. But you know, here we are. You can make the argument here in 1983. This is, you know, at the beginning of a, you know, the next leg of, of a W, which would suggest, you know, going back up in here and testing some other stuff. It’s a five week month.
00;14;34;02 – 00;14;51;13
It is so good to check out basis a lot of judgment to learn about all that jazz. But it’s a five week month. Just started pricing. And depending on how you price the barrel, the barrel may not be pricing right now. So there’s so much potential for volatility here. And it’s really like I don’t really think it’s you know now it’s 1985.
00;14;51;19 – 00;14;54;21
Oh my gosh what a great year you’re I was born and I think Nintendo.
00;14;54;21 – 00;14;59;08
We have not broken below 1950 in almost two months to the day.
00;14;59;11 – 00;15;22;11
That’s a that’s been a big price to. So yeah 1985 last year price I just look at this and say like to your point 19.5 has been a price where we struggled to break through. you know it can’t you have to go back to like early May right in again when I think about like current cash and you know, what we’ve seen out of buying here when you start to get down like low one 80s and spot.
00;15;22;14 – 00;15;34;14
Yeah. And then what Arthur Miller thought about or at least my thought about that, like what we could see out of the spot market chart. This is I think you could take a shot, a little bit of a shot at owning a little bit of August. Yeah. I don’t know if I don’t necessarily think that we just rip higher, right?
00;15;34;14 – 00;15;37;17
I mean, if you go and complete this w, you’re talking about $20.07.
00;15;37;19 – 00;15;43;15
Because what have you told me you can take a shot at owning here and you know you’re wrong below 1950.
00;15;43;18 – 00;15;43;27
There you go.
00;15;43;27 – 00;15;45;20
For the risk reward I think.
00;15;45;20 – 00;16;03;17
Is there the risk to it? I totally agree with that. The risk reward is definitely there. And the way the cash buying has been, it doesn’t seem like they’re just ready to let it fall at that. They probably get a lot of like support there and stuff like that. So. Right. Totally agree. And it seems like it’s worth a shot, you know, again, and to your point, you know, you’re wrong.
00;16;03;20 – 00;16;09;09
You break through here. Okay. Move on. I agree, I don’t really have much else, but anything else you want to discuss?
00;16;09;17 – 00;16;30;00
I think we should give a big shout out to Erica and Fletch for the charts today. like to thank Paige and Lexi for both helping us get this started on TikTok, made sure we’re on the right path and doing all the behind the scenes work. And also, we’d like to give a big shout out to Paige for her birthday this coming Friday.
00;16;30;03 – 00;16;31;10
Is it really your birthday this coming Friday?
00;16;31;10 – 00;16;41;00
Paige wish Paige a happy birthday in the comments. We would all greatly appreciate it. She does all the work behind the scenes, keeps us on the right track, make sure we don’t get canceled or fired.
00;16;41;01 – 00;16;42;10
What do you getting paid for a birthday?
00;16;42;10 – 00;16;44;02
Surprise surprise.
00;16;44;04 – 00;16;47;12
Surprise. Eight tubes of toothpaste for six bucks.
00;16;47;14 – 00;16;58;13
Surprise, surprise. All right, everybody, we thank you for tuning in now. We’ll be back next week with you for another awesome episode of Tech Talk. But until then, have a great week and even better weekend. We’ll see you next.
00;16;58;13 – 00;16;59;03
Time you guys.
[/bg_collapse]
The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-…
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod
