In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss CME cheese, dry whey and class III milk.
Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.
Charts sourced from Ever.Ag Platform.
[bg_collapse color=”#004053″ icon=”arrow” expand_text=”Show Transcript” collapse_text=”Hide Transcript” ]
(Transcipt auto-generated)
00;00;00;21 – 00;00;10;02
Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this site. Map is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities in.
00;00;10;04 – 00;00;23;07
Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tick Tock. I am Cody, he is Andy. We are the Tech Talk crew coming to you live on the 23rd of July 2024. Just about what time we got here. Three.
00;00;23;09 – 00;00;25;06
I mean, I’ve got a little out for three my time. Three.
00;00;25;06 – 00;00;27;10
Your time for eastern? 340.
00;00;27;13 – 00;00;29;25
Yeah. There you go. We’re closing in on the end of the day.
00;00;30;00 – 00;00;30;21
There you go.
00;00;30;23 – 00;00;32;19
There was zeroing in on the end of the day.
00;00;32;19 – 00;00;34;26
How’s that for creeping towards the end?
00;00;34;26 – 00;00;42;27
It’s kind of hot, by the way. It’s like, you know I think it’s like in the 90s here. Let’s talk about like our obligatory weather chat. Know people are always supposed to have a company and stuff.
00;00;43;04 – 00;00;45;11
It is spicy. Supposed to be hotter this weekend though.
00;00;45;13 – 00;00;52;14
You know what I don’t understand though is that like, if you’re if it’s super hot, shouldn’t you not wear like a black long sleeve shirt?
00;00;52;17 – 00;00;56;29
This is my tech talk shirt of the day because everything else is in the wash.
00;00;57;03 – 00;01;00;04
It makes you look like you’re on double secret probation wearing that shirt.
00;01;00;07 – 00;01;05;00
On double secret probation when I wear black under my black shirt, I really feel like Johnny Cash.
00;01;05;00 – 00;01;08;20
That you really feel like you’re on your probation or you say you’re Johnny Cash.
00;01;08;22 – 00;01;14;21
Should I learn to play the guitar and write as a TikTok theme song? I think that is a question that we need to ask ourselves.
00;01;14;23 – 00;01;17;08
I think we should say yes. And the show’s over. That’s it.
00;01;17;08 – 00;01;17;17
All right.
00;01;17;17 – 00;01;30;03
I’m just like, all right, so we gotta start thinking about, like, what the theme of the song is going to be. Is it going to be like a all right, I can actually like, okay, you’re not going to I can’t you should never show shares of secrets here.
00;01;30;05 – 00;01;31;23
Exactly. Same thing with myself. All right.
00;01;31;23 – 00;01;35;05
Well, let’s talk about some secrets to share from this magician here.
00;01;35;07 – 00;01;35;26
First one.
00;01;36;00 – 00;01;51;05
First one. This looks like a bull flag to me. This is CMG is on a weekly basis, so it’s just a block in the barrel divided by two. We’ll see here in the future whether or not we’re going to have a barrel as part of this calculation. Meantime, this sure looks like a bull flag to me. So bull flag is basically yeah, big bull move like this.
00;01;51;05 – 00;02;03;19
And then you typically see some sort of very small retracement. And then if that holds true, what you would want to do is basically take this guy right here and lay it right on top.
00;02;03;21 – 00;02;10;18
Technically, you’re taking the pole of the flag and put it to the the peak, correct this.
00;02;10;20 – 00;02;33;04
And like this. I guess the psychology behind it too is that like you had this, you had the big I mean, something is 145 up to just over two bucks. And what I have circle here is the best that the that the bears could have done in response to this big rally. Right. And so, you know, the Bulls have a kind of looking at this really is, is like, you know, where we’re comfortable continuing to own this price after a significant change.
00;02;33;06 – 00;02;33;16
Yeah.
00;02;33;16 – 00;02;55;02
So but really I mean you go back to just a May 10th 195 today, 194 this I mean, not much change in terms of price action. But again, like you just the this you have this big move and just this is the most of the bears can do in response to that price action. It’s a bullish chart I agree.
00;02;55;04 – 00;02;58;28
I mean what do you have. what do you got there. 242.
00;02;59;00 – 00;03;02;28
To 40 geez. Roughly 240 Chase. Which if I keep dragging this out.
00;03;03;00 – 00;03;05;01
I was just like, all right, highs. Yep.
00;03;05;01 – 00;03;23;20
That’s basically takes it back to this former high that we have yet to retest. so obviously, I mean, there’s some fundamental things that are shaping up that could potentially, you know, warrant that. Right. If just we just said no production released today. Another dinger down what, 1% total. You me to revise. They revised previous month down to four inches.
00;03;23;22 – 00;03;24;21
There’s just no no.
00;03;24;23 – 00;03;25;09
No no.
00;03;25;15 – 00;03;26;29
No they’ve gone.
00;03;27;01 – 00;03;30;16
Yeah that I think that USDA report was a big surprise to everybody.
00;03;30;22 – 00;03;48;27
Yeah I agree I mean this this chart again if we’re just looking at the technicals of it. This looks like a bull flag to me. So I guess where where would you consider this a failure? I think if we really go and fill if we go and fill this gap, they really let me get rid of this guy real faster.
00;03;48;29 – 00;04;05;14
So fill in this gap right here I think would be a failure part of the discussion that we’ve been hearing, too, is that, you know, there’s been some pretty healthy support in this market around dollar 80. Yeah. Futures have certainly shown us that they’ve been maintaining a healthy premium to that number. And in pockets down around that price we seem to bounce pretty pretty quickly.
00;04;05;15 – 00;04;21;02
Yeah. So I think a failure here of being go fill this gap like feels like a bull flag. But keep an eye on these gaps by the way. You know I know we’re talking about a bullish move now. But these gaps that’s unfinished business right. Especially this one. Yeah yeah. Like that’s a that’s something to be mindful of.
00;04;21;02 – 00;04;38;17
If we start to really go we start to really break. I mean you’re talking about going to fill this thing back in like mid mid to low once it hits. So those become targets assuming we break past them we go fill this gap. And it’s down there. But I think in the meantime for them at least both like let’s get it on the blog.
00;04;38;17 – 00;04;41;28
You had one. You want to look at that we haven’t looked at in a while.
00;04;42;01 – 00;04;42;28
Right? Right.
00;04;42;28 – 00;04;44;15
We’re weekly dry way.
00;04;44;17 – 00;04;57;11
What you’re saying here. Yeah. I mean, if you go back to the week of February 16th, we are now at the highs that that same would get me exactly right there at the high of $0.53.
00;04;57;14 – 00;04;58;00
00;04;58;03 – 00;05;02;28
This week so far, it’s Tuesday, by the way, high at $0.53.
00;05;02;28 – 00;05;05;05
This is looking pretty perky here. This is looking good.
00;05;05;07 – 00;05;07;04
It’s looking pretty darn good, right?
00;05;07;05 – 00;05;08;29
Looking pretty darn good right now.
00;05;09;03 – 00;05;14;18
I’m just looking. I mean, I, we hate to be gap chasers, as some people would call us, right?
00;05;14;18 – 00;05;16;03
Hey, to be gapped.
00;05;16;05 – 00;05;29;06
But if you go back into 2022 about the same time frame February, March, there is a gap at about $0.77 or. Right.
00;05;29;10 – 00;05;41;16
What, like how many how many people remember this gap? Very few. Not that there is no gap that escapes Kody though. And this year it’s going to get found.
00;05;41;18 – 00;05;42;18
We got to chase him.
00;05;42;20 – 00;05;50;26
That’s interesting. Is this gap got filled recently like that recently that like all of these other gaps have been filled except this bad out there.
00;05;50;28 – 00;05;51;29
Except for that one. So in my.
00;05;52;01 – 00;05;53;02
Tapping.
00;05;53;05 – 00;06;15;29
I think you got to get up to obviously, the next big testing point would probably be $0.50, right. Just kind of a nice round number in everybody’s mind. But we also had a little bit of resistance there back in 2022 again. And I think once you get past that, then this gap comes into mind of saying, okay, is it time to go fill this gap at 77, $0.78 for sure.
00;06;16;06 – 00;06;36;29
This looks like we’re getting into wave three right now, over and out. Like if you want to think about like from an early wave perspective, right? I mean, I think you can make the argument that this chart started to really go once you broke out from here, right? And so you want to call this one wave one, you know, add this plus a call like another 20% takes you up to there.
00;06;37;01 – 00;06;51;24
Right. What’s interesting about it too, is that you fill this gap and then proceeded to keep going. So to your point, you know, if we seem to have cleared a pretty cycle out in, you know, a pretty big number in this market, 50, 52, 53 so maybe we settle here by the end of the week. Right? So a lot of time.
00;06;51;26 – 00;07;10;04
But you’ve cleared that number. You fill this gap. You can even we’re continuing to go what looks like a pretty healthy breakout of a very long term trend. Right. To your point, this this started back and then is this this started in, you know, right around my birthday in 2022. This is like at the time when we had jasco on the show.
00;07;10;07 – 00;07;11;09
Yeah, exactly.
00;07;11;12 – 00;07;22;06
And it’s and it took all the way until, you know, over eight of 18 months for this thing to break through one that so I appreciate you bringing this one to this could get sneaky.
00;07;22;08 – 00;07;32;22
It could just be one because it’s a sneaky one. Yes. Right. I was looking at cheese. I was looking at class three. But as you’ve mentioned before on the show, every penny and weigh is $0.06 cents.
00;07;32;26 – 00;07;34;15
Six months in class three.
00;07;34;18 – 00;07;37;24
We got to put this into the equation. Also if we’re going to talk about class three.
00;07;38;00 – 00;07;56;02
Yeah I mean if we go trade so 53 if we go up to that now let’s go say we fill your gap. Yeah 70. Let’s just say $0.75 53 to 75. What is that 75 -53 is 12 times six is $0.72 100 right I didn’t that’s right. Yikes. Yeah. It’s a lot.
00;07;56;04 – 00;07;56;27
Exactly.
00;07;56;29 – 00;08;14;00
So weigh this. This could get really dicey. This could get really interesting. And if I could just throw one in there too. We’re not going to talk too long on it. But if way starts to really go watch out for nonfat. That’s right. You know, if I remember correctly, whey is approximately a third of the value back of the envelope math of nonfat.
00;08;14;03 – 00;08;31;08
If whey starts to get really, you know, gets bid and has a get a solid bid that takes us in the mid 50s, you know, nonfat at 120 I just I see that I see this chart playing out very similarly to what we just looked at way right. Big downtrend broke through it and are now starting to trend higher.
00;08;31;11 – 00;08;54;22
Yeah same thing. So one more weekly chart I like the view of this chart. This comes off CB here App.com only because this is an actual weekly chart of September class. Remember all this is is the open high low close of each week for September class three milk. And then at the bottom it pulls the volume. So you know the red bars are but you know it’s this is a lower week right.
00;08;54;25 – 00;09;23;00
So the volume is going to be red. So two things stick out to me about this chart. Well I wanted to show it first one was if so this bar right here is this week this bar obviously last week. So last week’s bar engulfed the previous week’s bar right. Just basically like completely punched in the nose closing well above the previous highs or previous close and did it on a on a week or the volume.
00;09;23;00 – 00;09;43;04
Right here was the most volume that this contract has seen in its lifetime on a weekly basis. So last week’s volume in September was the most volume that had seen in any given week. And it did it while basically clearing all of these, you know, this open this open, this open. This is I mean, this is a pretty strong formation.
00;09;43;04 – 00;10;04;00
And then we always talk about it like, what is what is the next candle did. Right. So you’ve got a strong engulfing candle and really good volume the next week. This week yesterday and today we were close here just today at this price or really anything basically 2080 or better. You’re going to close September on a weekly basis into a new high.
00;10;04;03 – 00;10;05;29
On still really good volume.
00;10;06;01 – 00;10;21;18
Great volume on really good volume. That is a great indicator. So shout out to CME Group I love this view of the chart. It’s a great way to look at it. And you know if you’re on there you can actually kind of poke around to like how do you want to do it on a monthly basis? Monthly spot to go retest the previous month high.
00;10;21;20 – 00;10;26;11
Also bullish candles at the bottom that is that is the volume for the whole month. And correct correct.
00;10;26;14 – 00;10;27;04
Correct.
00;10;27;06 – 00;10;35;07
That’s correct. I think that’s really cool to see you can see the price movement and the amount of volume that’s traded. That is something that is I think efficient. So this look at.
00;10;35;10 – 00;10;48;06
This chart reminds me a lot of what we just looked at in the cheese where you have this big run, you have a bull flag right. And then it starts to go again. This is this is shaping up like it wants to go to 22 plus dollars million.
00;10;48;08 – 00;10;49;06
I see what you’re saying.
00;10;49;09 – 00;11;05;29
And you know you start talking about adding the on the way component into it. You know that under itself could add you know just going to add a little bit more fuel to fire. Let’s say you get the, you know, the what’s going on with the bull flag and cheese, all things that are starting to point to us have a nice little or pop or risky here in the latter part of the summer.
00;11;06;01 – 00;11;08;04
Pretty good bullish tech talk today my friend.
00;11;08;05 – 00;11;11;00
Bullish tech talk all on weekly charts by the way about that.
00;11;11;00 – 00;11;11;17
All weekly.
00;11;11;18 – 00;11;14;25
All weeklies all weekly all week. We’re here all week.
00;11;14;27 – 00;11;26;20
So yeah I don’t even know to ask you about this chart because there’s nothing else above it that’s I mean it’s just bullish. We’re going to leave it at that. All right. Well I guess that’s going to do it for us that.
00;11;26;22 – 00;11;28;02
That’s all she wrote.
00;11;28;05 – 00;11;43;01
Fast and simple everybody. It’s how we like them. So with that being said I guess any now going to be back next week Tuesday looking at some more charts, if you have any that you want to see, please feel free to email us. Give us a call. Since the text. We would love to see them live. Look at them.
00;11;43;04 – 00;11;48;23
but until then, have a great week. Have a great weekend. Supposed to be like 95 here. So everybody stay cool. Drink lots of these.
00;11;48;23 – 00;11;54;13
Code is going to do some laundry. He’s going to he’s going to get his guitar. He’s going to do some laundry.
00;11;54;16 – 00;12;00;25
We are all fixed. We’ll be back next week. Even more charts, that’s for sure. Everybody we’ll see you next time you guys.
[/bg_collapse]
The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-…
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod
