In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss CME spot block cheddar cheese, September feeder cattle and December corn.
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Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is Andy. It is the 25th of March, about 3:45 in the afternoon eastern time, 2:45 Central time. How are you doing?
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How was your trip?
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It was good. I will sun or tan.
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Fun in the sun.
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Some fun in the sun.
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I assume the weather was just a smidge better than where it is where you’re at currently.
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85 the whole week. Not a cloud sky. I come back at snowing in Michigan.
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I mean, we could have done TikTok from wherever you were. You could just state, I guess, if.
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We would add service. I thought about.
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It. We do have, what, three charts today? Two came at request, three. Two. Is this the proper way to do three, by the way? Or is it this.
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I’ve always I’m always on three.
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I mean, this like feels better to me.
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I just can’t like when you see from a long ways away, you can’t really see that. So I just.
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Three was what if somebody went like this?
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Nope. That’s weird.
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You know, it’s weird. So freaked my kid out the other day. Watch this. You ready? So here’s this.
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Yep.
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And then I can do this. And I can do this. I can do this. Yeah.
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This is your man Tim. Talk about that.
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How about that? All right, many talents. Speaking of talents, let’s look at some charts.
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Let’s look at them.
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First one came at request see me blog from our good friend Jay Bar.
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Jay bar.
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He’s back. Jay bar Jeff is back. Jay bar is back, baby. And he wanted to see what’s so for Jay Bar. We’re looking at them and they’re hot. I mean they’ve been hot lately. She’s moved. She’s market’s moving around I mean I know you were out last week and you know you get fun in the sun. Did you get like are you the type of person that gets like a cocktail with a little umbrella in it by the way?
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Yeah, 100% MacLellan Brella. Whatever they throw at me, I don’t really care. You don’t.
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Have like, a okay.
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Every every two drinks you reapply with sunscreen. It’s kind of a general rule.
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It doesn’t say that on the sunscreen. Every two drinks make sure you reapply. So Jay Bar wants to look at blocks. We’re looking at blocks. This is I mean so we had this I didn’t touch this red line right here because really it’s basically where the super like the market started to really go, right. Once you cross one for the first time, for the second time, I guess the question is do we get back down there again?
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This chart is not looking like it wants to go and, you know, go and do just it right. Especially after, you know, this, this, these two candles right here. And let me just zoom in for page. Boom. Zoomed in. These two candles right here are definitely a sign of weakness. Try to retrace completely failed closing and new lows for all this stuff.
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All this stuff. And then. But not so fast. If I can act up. There we go. Not so fast. And fundamentally, you know, I think we’re pretty price competitive with the rest of the world. When you start talking about blocks and or dollar 60 and the futures curve is telling us that cheese isn’t worth anything less than $1.70, right?
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So I’m assuming you get folks that can say, hey, I can buy some mild cheddar here below. Another 16. Yeah. But if you just want to think about it from a technical perspective, this this attempt to break out to the downside was firmly rejected. It’s only Tuesday. This is a weekly so there’s still time J bars. But I say this chart is kind of in jeopardy of like basically going to trade above.
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Let’s say you settle above this high which was last week’s call it 64.5. So 165 settle I think now you’re starting to talk about like yikes. Getting back up into, you know, testing like this high right here which is we already have it drawn at 172, but which is basically where April Futures. Is that.
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Correct?
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Correct. And April’s what a second week of pricing of four weeks.
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Yeah.
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So April futures on the clock is telling us this is where the block should go is where the screen lines basically at. Yeah. So we’ll see. But yeah this is a firm this is a rejection. Assuming we get too close here a year to close at 165 this week. You’ve completely rejected this attempt to break down. And that’s that’s a sign of strength.
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We’ve seen a lot more trading hands on the CME the past two days. Also in the block. All hands.
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On selling buying.
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Right. Probably we’re down far enough to get down to that dollar 60 number. And people step in to truly own it. And here we sit.
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Here we sit. So I mean to me this feels supportive coincidentally to look at this we’re backed back and all this.
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You’re that guy right there.
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That’s okay. So I was going to ask you if you look at that long term. Right. But you just circled. Do you think the same thing happens right now? If we if we sell above, if we sell at 165, you think we start getting that leg to the last part of the W?
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I don’t know about the debt like the last part of W $1.90. Yeah, I, I don’t know if the market’s ready to go do that. Okay. Right. But you know to go and trade back to this high 172 the futures speeches are telling us. Sure. I mean it seems like we’re yeah, we’re competitive export wise. And we saw that abrupt know I know we’re looking at the block, but we saw that abrupt rally to start the week in the block or in the barrel.
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I mean of eight yesterday. Yeah yeah yeah. Just rocking.
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Right.
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So yeah this this feel this looks somewhat supportive here I mean and again the futures are certainly telling us they’re acting like she’s below a dollar. You know certainly below dollar 60. But even in the mid 60s is going to be tough to get on the in the ass in the NFC. Yeah. So yeah the attempt to break down failing here so far I think is a sign of strength.
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Okay. We shall see. Thank you bar. Thank you. This is a spicy market right. And this all of a sudden is getting spicy. Speaking of spicy though, this one’s for our esteemed colleague Zach attack.
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This wasn’t truly a request, but we’re going to.
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We’ll call it. We’re calling your request. We’re calling it a request. Step theaters.
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Look at that work today.
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Just wicked sick. No point. Well, maybe pun intended, I don’t know.
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Because we talked about it two weeks ago when we looked at, I think we looked at, live cow. We were looking at cattle live. You need to have a place. It’s going to tell you to sell it. And up here at 290 was probably a place to tell you to sell it. But after seeing the retracement that you had today, is it just a little bit of a head fake?
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This thing settled over $4 off as well. Yeah, today.
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Today, today, one.
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Day just today. And again you know this this uptrend I mean it really depends on I think you you could be a little bit more conservative and say there’s still plenty of room for it to break and still be an uptrend. But if you want to be, you know, say that the uptrend truly started maybe here, then you can you can certainly make the argument that it did break.
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I guess the question is, again, where where do you feel like this uptrend really is is this a true rejection of that? I’m I don’t know if I like I think you have to see how this thing opens up. Well I mean it’s close now right. But if this thing opens higher tomorrow I mean real be real cautious about being short.
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Short in this market continues to just like punish people for trying to be short again and again and again and again and again.
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Well, just like where you drew that second uptrend right there where you started it. That is exactly how today had finished. Right. You fall. You fell apart two bucks a retrace. The next day it opened and we just were off to the races.
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Yeah. Now I will say that the secondary stuff is money flow index right here. Good call. And then you’ve got momentum that is breaking down. All this stuff is starting to actually so show signs of weakness. Here’s the RSI. It got overbought stayed overbought for a while I remember. Or you can say overbought or oversold for a long time but then successfully cross itself back into you know from overbought into this territory.
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That is another sign of weakness. So you do have some of the secondary stuff telling you like hey like if you’re long you’re going to want to be careful. Here it is. You know it’s you’re getting some support from that part of the, you know, from that part of the chart at least I so I know an open lower tomorrow I think would really could be like kind of the death knell.
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Yeah. You get an open lower because that you know like I always think about it this way. Like okay, we went down, let’s say we go back and test that low again. Like it’s that a lot of times that the first price, first trip to a price, it’s the second time. So that gets a little bit dicey. So yeah, to me I think tomorrow’s open is really big for sub theaters cannot open lower and then spend you know the opening range lower.
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And if it does then I think you got to go down and test this guy right here. And you’ve got the momentum. You’ve got the money flows telling you the volume. Plus, you know, volume and price action combined are telling you that it’s getting weak okay.
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So now open at 285 even to 86 tomorrow.
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Where we sell 286 spot and a half basically. Yeah. I mean, so you open it to 86 tomorrow and then just through the opening range and throughout the early morning started trickling down like that. I, you know, I as I like a second test of today’s low really could accelerate this and down into this here and then you’ll see.
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But again you’ve got it’s cross. This overbought came back down. The momentum is clearly slowing down right here. Right. Failing to make a new high. And so is the money flow. That’s those are all three of those are a sign of impending weakness. Yeah. Well we’ll see.
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Zach there’s your.
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Answer Zach. Attack. That’s for that’s for you right there. And then you had a request, I think. An oldie but goodie. An oldie. But he love you. Love new crop porn.
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It’s like I just it just it’s a gift that keeps on giving. It seems like in this past three weeks, it has been giving and taking.
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Given and taking regional markets. Do they buy and give and they take.
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That’s what it feels like this.
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So I guess what sticks out to me there’s a lot going on here. Let’s get right here.
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You didn’t change any of this I.
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Didn’t change anything. But I’m going to get rid of this. This this is clearly been, you know, we trade it through that. Let’s get rid of that and we can get rid of that for now. Look at that. What sticks out to me is right here, the attempt to test that high failing. And now we’re through this long term, what was long term support and staying through it.
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And not only that, we’re getting below this is the 200 and the 200 day moving average right here. This blue line. Yep. Settle below it. After getting below what is you know traditionally this has been a long term support. This looks a week. Same thing we looked at with feeders. Money flow starting to turn down. That’s a sign of impending weakness right here.
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Momentum clearly in the down not looking like it’s going anywhere. And then you’ve got room to break before it’s considered oversold. So to me it’s like at the very least let’s go find out if this is a W or not. Let’s take her down to go test these lows for four days. Not that far away. It’s a dime.
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So I guess the big question is, do we go down and test for 30 ideas? Next move.
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This would be the next target, which is super close right this low. So 431 and change okay. But yeah I mean that would be like the next target. But you got to get you have to prove that this double top is in fact a double top. And I think a closer 440 takes you to 430 or the right here.
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And then it’s like, oh man, if you get through, you get through that. And it’s it could be lights out for that one. Yeah.
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And I think that’s it. Whatever. It’s kind of wondering about as, as we start getting closer to spring’s closer into planting those. Do we go into no man’s land below 430 and start knocking the door of $4? Right. Anyone home? Yeah.
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You there for me? Either answer or answer your home. All right, so I think at the very least, you’re going to be cautiously looking at being a little short. Corn, new crop corn. You know where you’re wrong this high. But for 58 we just looked the feeders set feeders. Yeah. We open lower tomorrow. It could be lights out for the contract for a little bit.
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That could get a little dicey. And it feels like people are looking for an opportunity, looking for a reason to sell a contract that has been consistently making, like, all time record highs. Yeah. So and then JB coming in hot with the blocks. They’re looking they look supportive. Yeah. Futures say that it should be worth more.
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Two possible bearish one possible bullish.
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I got to bring back by the way I gotta bring back the bullish by good. Meaning he found the bearish bazooka. Over the weekend. We were cleaning out the garage and he found bring it back. He found the bearish bazooka.
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We haven’t had any charts that deserve a slam of the hammer because nothing’s been hammer worthy so far.
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We’ll find one.
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We will.
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We’ll find one.
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We’ll get some more volatility move and then we’ll get some hammers.
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And we’ll get the hammer with the bearish bazooka. So all right that’s it. That’s all we got.
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That’s all we got. All right everybody appreciate you watching JB Zach we appreciate you guys asking us what charts to look at. Anyone else would like to look at charts for next week. Please let us know. Emails. Call us if you have not already subscribe to the channel. Please do give us a thumbs up. Give us a like.
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Tell your friends and family we will see you next week.
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See you later.
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