In this episode of Tech Talk, we dive headfirst into the chaos of CME cheese with a rally that just can’t commit — is it death by a thousand cuts or a setup for a bounce? Then it’s on to butter, where signs point to strength, breakaway gaps, and possibly… $2.80 butter?! Finally, we answer a viewer request and unpack a textbook bull flag in copper that’s holding strong.
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Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I’m Cody, he is Andy and with Paige in the background, pushing the buttons, pulling the levers. We are the tech talk trio. How are you doing today? You know.
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What? Cody feels any better of you.
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But I like to hear that, man.
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You know, halfway.
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Through the summer already.
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Halfway through the summer already. Can you believe that?
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Seemed like it was just February and ten degrees outside.
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Pretty soon Michigan State football is going to turn around, turn on and right. You’re going to be wanting to get one of those things called chili Taco Bell. This things called walking.
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Tacos.
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Walking talk. There you go.
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Football season baby Michigan.
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State winning the national championship this.
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Year. We’re back. I mean I’d like to say yes, but you’re back there. Start paying up for some of these players if they want to compete.
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You know, you never say never, man.
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Never say never.
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Never say never.
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But to put in those walking tacos, we do need a little bit of some black cheese which is on our radars.
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But your ability to segue stuff is just phenomenal. I think, like, you’ve got to be the king of Segways. You can’t have a walking taco without some shredded cheese. Yeah, CME block. I mean, I think last time I was there, last time we talked to we talked about this. You talked about this gap right here. It’s unfinished business, but I guess so was this one though.
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Yeah. Yeah.
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This is just turned into, like, just this wild, like, you know, here today, gone tomorrow. Try to get gone. Couldn’t do it.
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What did, oh. What did you used to call it? Like death by a thousand cuts?
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Sure.
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It’s kind of what this market feels like, right? Everyone was kind of expecting this rally back to the one 8185 number, and it’s just been a slow bleed every single day.
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They every day we’re just seeing a little bit extra cheese showing up and just got just chairs blown away. It’s just like.
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When you look at this it’s just it’s back on these lows and it’s kind of do or die time once again. All right.
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So today is Tuesday the 15th. Do you feel like by Friday we’re going to hit a buck 60 back to our lows I mean.
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We got to get through this. Call it. We got to get through this candle right here. Right like 16 a quarter. We tried to get through it here. What was it was a few weeks ago. And as soon as this market dips below 160, it just doesn’t like to be there for very long.
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Right.
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And this this we mean, this was that week that we probably rallied like, you know, close to ten, $0.12 or something like that. No, it was $0.10 on that Monday. Right. Because this one close at 162 we close off the low and then pop $0.10. And here we are back. You know bumping up against this close right. This is 162.
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This is 162 that I don’t have to make this. I have a hard time saying we’re going to go back down here until you get a meaningful close through this candle and then open lower after that.
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I guess. Do you think we’re going to open lower than that candle, or do you think we’re going to hit $1.60 and bounce again like we have every single time?
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I feel like it’s the time of the year for us to bounce. I mean, like, you know, we also had the what was it? Our last export data was showed all time record high month for cheese exports. I mean it’s it’s tough to ignore that and just seems like anytime we get down in this area, we get super competitive as an exporter and we start to get a lot more business done.
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But again, this market just is not okay. Great. We got we got you know, we got those exports. We had a pop in though coming right back down to it. So it’s I don’t know. To me it’s like you got to get to this candle and open lower. And then it could be it can get real dicey if it does.
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Yes. Are thinking about some of this stuff over here. I don’t I don’t want to think about that just yet. But like this would be kind of a the next this would be the next area of support like skull 140. It’s got to get through this. Can’t hold an open lower subsequently after that. Yeah.
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Yeah. So I don’t know what you said this time of year just doesn’t seem like 1:40 a.m. in the cards. But I mean, the market doesn’t really care. We think it’s going to do its thing.
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So what does your favorite artist say? Justin Bieber never say never. You’re Bieber fan, karma. Oh, don’t tell me you’re not. All right. Anyways, now that we got that out there, it’s a dead time. I think we could test this low. It’s not that far. It’s like two and a half cents. Right? But I think you’ve seen it close below that and then open lower for us to go test this.
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Anything, anything less than that, I think you get a bounce off the support again. All right. Next up spot butter butter weekly basis Sami let’s go.
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Looks like it’s rolling over here.
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It’s starting. So what I think is is interesting about this is that I don’t I don’t know if I would say it is rolling over because it’s got this nice little channel that it’s making right here. And if you just look at the overall trend of that, it is trending higher. Right? This channel is moving higher. I know it doesn’t feel that way because to me it’s like I, I look at this market, I cash I just feel like we’ve just been like, you know, 255 plus or minus like a dime for like forever or something, not even in time.
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But when you look at the overall trend here, this looks like it can continue in this general direction up. If that is true, then up a little bit. But, I think you are ultimately going to go and, you know, this is we had this on here for a while. This, this retracement 271 to 50 is 50%. I think that’s entirely possible for this market.
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I’m in fact, I think I’ve got yeah, I’ve got this written down right here. I’ve had this up for a little while now. That’s my signature. June 5th, 280 butter.
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280 butter.
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So I’m on June 5th. I said to 80 butter. Then I signed it.
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Okay.
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We will see that sometime this year. That’s I know that’s.
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Okay sometime this year. Not by us. Just in 2020.
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This was this was like the timestamp on it was June 5th. I don’t have the timestamp anymore, but I those ones from the office where like some like you jumped. Yeah. Like the old school I love those.
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Yeah.
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So you had this gap higher right. So let’s just I mean start from the beginning. Right. Big downtrend. Got out of it. Consolidated. That’s a sign of strength gapped. You started to have what I think you can call this a breakaway gap. Breakaway gaps occur at the beginning of the new trend. And it I think that’s the case because you have 12345678 weeks now or that gap is not been tested.
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So all our SQL, that’s a sign of strength.
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I think what’s interesting, I mean, not this isn’t so much technical, but I was on the, GDP podcast with Mr. John Spain out this morning. We had global dairy trade today Tuesday morning and their butter price slipped slightly overseas, but still at $3.40 equivalent hours. Different butterfat, different soil content. We understand that. But you know, the fact that we are a dollar discount to them right now is, is massive.
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And people are going to say, well, we can’t export that kind of butter. Are we moving? We we’ve seen it. We’ve seen that we.
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We’ve talked about the cheese export piece of it. But what about the butter exports? I mean, the less for the less butter export report was like a quote me on the exact number, but I think it was up year over year, like 130%. Yeah, it’s a massive number.
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It’s massive. I mean, even at the top of your trend here, they’re what, 319, 320 that doesn’t even touch where their price is overseas.
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Right? So to put it in I guess to put in you said 343.
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40 is what we had written down. Yeah. Way up top.
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That’s where the, that’s where they’re, where they’re.
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They’re all right. Yeah. So to your point about a breakaway gap I can I can see it. Now when you put that line at 345 we’ll get it.
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When I think about the like the last week, eight weeks of butter trade, it just feels like it’s just dragged on.
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Yes, yes.
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But that channel itself looks strong. It’s trending higher and it’s coming after a breakaway gap after breaking out of this long downtrend. Yeah. Those are all signs of strength. 280 let’s go sometimes here which about about put it in the freezer. Right. Sorry. All right. So last but not certainly not least. This is our one requests. He want to be called Taco.
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We were just talking about walking tacos. So, Taco, thanks for calling in. Taco wants to talk about copper.
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Have we ever looked at copper?
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Don’t think we.
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Have. I don’t think so. This is a first.
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Because there’s a first for everything. It’s great. Oh, we love, we love, we love requests. And we certainly love them when their first. But we’ll take we’ll take our own flag. It sure feels like it.
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As soon as you pulled it off, I was like, my goodness, if that’s not a bull flag, one that would be right out of a textbook. I don’t know what is.
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So that’s.
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The one. Yeah. So far you got probably a few more days. Is a daily of copper. Few more days kind of when that flag up and then take off to the high side it looks like.
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So what sticks out to me? A few things that get to me about this bad boy. Let’s just do this real fast here. Yep. Look at what price it’s bouncing off of right there. How interesting is that? Don’t tell me that. Technical. Like, just. That’s not a coincidence, right?
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Right. Exactly.
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Obviously, this big green candle is just like, it’s just a monster candle. But what’s interesting about it is that it’s it’s maintaining that. Right. You have one two. This is a daily. So one, two, three, four, 5 or 4 weeks worth of trade basically where after making this monster run in a single day, the market has not been able to retrace any significant amount of that price action.
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And then to your point, it’s starting to build this like this flag. And it’s also finding a ton of support. It was once a clear area of what I call very sharp resistance. I mean, look at this. Right. As soon as you bounced off this price, I don’t know how to quote copper, I really don’t. But 545 down to four and a half, even lower four and a quarter.
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That’s just a monster move. It just seems like a big what is that, 25% of the contract just right there from that, from that I am so yeah like that prices for huge price and the fact that the market blows through it and then it’s able to maintain over it after what it did last time, you know, you said it several times for what was once resistance is now support.
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And that support. And this is just kind of proving it to that point.
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It’s tough. These are the types of trades where it’s like, it’s so hard because you, you have this big move. You probably look at it. And again, I looked on this, it’s not getting like the the pullback that you probably want to try to do that. But that onto itself is rationale to actually go on it. So yeah that would be my thought.
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Is the support sold in here. You’re eventually what’s going to happen is you’re going to break through this triangle and probably go test this close, which is 568 double. For those of you out there that don’t know what double means, double nickel 55.
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55 I mean, you can Google bull flag pattern, and I feel like that would be one that would be directly implemented in the textbook right there.
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Yeah. This is certainly don’t want to be a seller of this until you get it. If you if you were looking for a reason to sell it, the only thing I could say is that you need to close below this number and then an open lower subsequently up to that. But so far you have 1 to 3 bounces off of what was once clear resistance.
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Such a this is great science right there. Okay, I like this lot. Yeah some of the other like that momentum as maintained right here the ADX. We talked about that before. This is telling you that this this up this current trend which in this case is higher is very strong. That’s what that’s telling you.
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Oh secondary indicators are really really rocking.
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Yeah. At the very least I wouldn’t want to be trying to pick a top on this bad boy. Try and sell it.
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Well I guess if our good friend Taco is looking to get long copper, now is probably the time.
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And get himself. Maybe,
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Frito pie. That’s what I. That’s what they’re called.
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Frito buys.
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You know. Pie. You call them a walking taco? I think Taco does call them Frito pies.
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Frito pies?
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That’s that’s I mean, it’s kind of hot right now, so I don’t know if I’d want to feel pie right now.
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No.
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Right. Right now.
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It’s a little too warm for that, my friend. But, in the next couple of months, when football season gets here, we’re right around the corner. So tomorrow, October, it’s going to start chilling.
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All right.
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Awesome. All right everybody we appreciate you tuning in to this episode of Tech Talk. If you have any questions comments concerns you would like to see me charts next week. Please let Andy myself or the insights team know. If you have not already done so please hit the subscribe button. Give us a thumbs up, leave us a comment.
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We want to know who’s watching out there and want to know what you guys want to see, but with that, we appreciate you tuning in. Until next week. Have a great rest of the week. Even better weekend. It’s going to be beautiful outside. Get outside, enjoy the summer. We’ll see you next time.
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I’m going to put on my my to do list. Eat walking taco.
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Dude, I know now we’ve talked about that. I really want to walk in Taco. I am hungry.
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