In this episode of Tech Talk, Cody and Andy dig into Feeder Cattle, Corn, and Cheddar Cheese and dissect the technical signals that could shape your next move. Are we seeing a lower high in feeders, or is the bull run still intact? Will corn futures hold key resistance at $4.30, or are we headed for a deeper test of support? And after a big bounce, is cheddar cheese poised to climb back to the top of its channel?
From trendlines and support levels to volume spikes and momentum indicators, this episode is packed with insights for traders and market-watchers.
📈 Whether you’re trading or tracking, don’t miss this deep dive into key technical setups heading into the July 4th weekend.
Charts sourced from Ever.Ag platform.
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Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.
Charts sourced from Ever.Ag Platform.
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Future trading involves risk and not suitable for all investors. Content provided in the site for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
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Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is Andy. It is the very first day of July. How are you doing, my friend?
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If I was any better, I beat you about that.
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So right here.
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Look at this. My pen matches my shirt, by the way. I kind of.
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Put it in front. I couldn’t even see it. You excited for, Independence Day on Friday?
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You got some fireworks going, by the way.
00;00;27;13 – 00;00;33;17
We’re going to you. I mean, as long as we get a little bit of rain. My neighbors talked about having some, so it should be a pretty good Friday evening.
00;00;33;23 – 00;00;35;20
Do you have any, like, bottle rockets we got?
00;00;35;20 – 00;00;42;29
They got a whole setup. They built. They built a platform to launch them from. It’s actually pretty sweet. They wired them in. It’s pretty.
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Cool. Can’t do that in Illinois. I got to drive up to patron. I got to drive up to Michigan. Come on over. We are allowed to look at charts, though.
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No annoy. There you go. And today we got three charts. All three of them came out.
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Request three charts, three requests. Two charts came from one request. One chart came from one request. Here you go. First one from our good friend, long time listener. Well, have him as a first time caller some day.
00;01;05;11 – 00;01;07;22
Jar jar vs Bad Jar.
00;01;07;22 – 00;01;26;09
Jar Bar one to look at August feeders. What what a run feeder cattle is had here. I mean this has just been we’ve talked about it so much. I feel like we’ve talked about it so many times, but it’s just like it’s like this big bull run that we’ve had in feeders. It’s it’s old news, but it’s always it’s just it’s just mind blowing.
00;01;26;09 – 00;01;49;17
It’s like we’re seeing history being made every single day because it’s. Yeah, we’re into like record contract highs, not just like contract days, but record all time record for like the actual feeder cattle contract itself. Right. So I think we actually had somebody post this question to, to us internally as well is are we seeing a starting to see the beginning of a lower high which would be a bearish indicator.
00;01;49;20 – 00;02;13;05
Correct? I feel like every time we’ve tried to say something to that effect, we have gotten probably punched in the nose. I will say at the very least, some of the shorter term trend, you know, you could argue was broken here recently. With today’s close kind of getting right out of it. Right. So actually you probably want to see that one.
00;02;13;05 – 00;02;31;00
That’s a tough one. So I’d probably argue it’s more like that either way. We we we we managed to close outside of the shorter term uptrend. But the long the big long one we’re not too close. We’re still pretty far away from that. Right. Right. Sticks out to me. Is this $300 level.
00;02;31;02 – 00;02;50;26
Yeah I was just going to say that. You know you’re wrong. Like if you were to buy right now, you know you’re wrong if we drop below 300. Because I think last time we had talked about this actually was, I mean, a couple of weeks ago, we had talked about the same thing of that $300 mark is it’s a big place.
00;02;50;28 – 00;02;51;27
Right?
00;02;51;29 – 00;03;09;26
It was resistance. Now it’s become support. Does it become support again? I mean, I would argue a week and a half ago, it was just that there’s a bunch of people that we’re talking about. This is the last of it. This is the run is over. Time to get short while we hit 300 and then bounced off and we’re back 310 with them, you know, three trading sessions.
00;03;09;29 – 00;03;37;12
Yeah. So I totally agree with everything you’re saying. And while you were saying that, I drew this one to. Because this was this this area right here 270 set to cut to 78 and change this area was clear resistance and then became support. Yeah. Right. And what’s interesting is that we’re getting a similar type setup where you had an attempts right here to put in, tried to put in like an Am.
00;03;37;15 – 00;03;38;05
Yeah.
00;03;38;07 – 00;03;47;21
Wasn’t it wasn’t it wasn’t as pronounced as this if this is going to be it. But it’s still tried. And then once it came down to this key support area, it blew right through it.
00;03;47;23 – 00;03;48;04
Exactly.
00;03;48;05 – 00;04;03;26
So I think it’s really hard to say that this is going to be, you know, this is it like we’re going to roll over until you really start to blow through some of these key supporters, the first one being to your point. So, you know, but yeah. So yeah, if you wanted to sell it you know, give it a shot.
00;04;04;03 – 00;04;20;00
You’re wrong right here. Yeah. It’s a bit of a ways to go. Eight bucks. That’s a lot. You know, conversely, if you wanted to be a buyer to your point, you know, you’re wrong. If we if we sell below 300 bucks, this is kind of no man’s land. It’s a tough one because you’re just like you’re right in the middle of this stuff.
00;04;20;03 – 00;04;20;27
It really is.
00;04;21;00 – 00;04;38;03
I think we settled 3 or 6 today. So you’re you’re just smack dab in the middle of it. Yeah. I would always wait to be all. Okay, so you buy it now. You know, you’re wrong. If we drop below 306 bucks away from here. But at the same token, do you wait till we get to 300 to buy it, to step in and try to own this contract?
00;04;38;03 – 00;04;43;01
I think I think you have to be. To me, the trend continues to be up.
00;04;43;09 – 00;04;44;06
I would agree with that.
00;04;44;11 – 00;05;04;13
I don’t think we’ve seen anything that would suggest yet that the uptrend has ended. Yeah. When I go and look at like the momentum is still positive, money flow is still 60, is a pretty high value for money flow, which suggests that the upside of the trade is still like in control in terms of volume, like you’re getting more volume on days that are higher, basically.
00;05;04;15 – 00;05;21;12
So what this is basically trying to tell you. So interestingly enough, the secondary indicators aren’t giving you any sort of sign that the trend is reversed. So I think people are looking at this and saying like, well, is this going to be a lower high possible? You’re not you have yet to see any sort of formal confirmation. This is a dicey one.
00;05;21;12 – 00;05;24;27
I don’t think I do anything here. And that is a trade.
00;05;24;29 – 00;05;26;04
You it is. It is doing.
00;05;26;04 – 00;05;27;10
Nothing as a trade.
00;05;27;12 – 00;05;28;10
You’d wait for confirmation?
00;05;28;10 – 00;05;44;02
I think you have to. I think you have to see how it plays out. Yeah, for sure, because it’s still trending higher. So if you try to sell it every time you’ve tried to sell it, punch in the notes every single time. You know the market’s trending higher. Just because we’re in all kind of all time record highs doesn’t mean it can’t stay there or continue to move into, you know.
00;05;44;05 – 00;06;06;00
So yeah this one to me it’s a little bit it’s it’s it’s it’s a like it’s a cautionary tale here because you’re getting a potential for a lower high, which is a bearish sign. But you still have this very long well-established uptrend that is has not been tested. It’s got tested once. Where are you. Right. Kind of in here and then just took off.
00;06;06;02 – 00;06;20;10
Yeah. You also have a key area of support that hasn’t been broken through yet. So I think at the very least you’re waiting that if you’re looking to be a seller and get confirmation that this is in fact a lower high, which is what I feel like people are looking at, you got you got a right to three in a box.
00;06;20;12 – 00;06;38;05
Yep. Which so could happen tomorrow. The way the market traded today, it could happen tomorrow. I would also say that I think the, you know, the volume traded is going to be interesting because the initial margin on these contracts, upwards of $4,500 plus, which is no small chunk of change for that’s.
00;06;38;05 – 00;06;38;20
A lot.
00;06;38;20 – 00;06;42;26
What it is. I mean, for people that trade that. What is class three? Are we at.
00;06;42;28 – 00;06;47;11
17 1800 bucks call it oh 18 and change. So call $1,900.
00;06;47;13 – 00;06;48;13
Okay, so.
00;06;48;13 – 00;06;51;02
Talking about three forex.
00;06;51;05 – 00;07;04;17
Exactly. And I wonder if they start throwing scared people at these all time high numbers. Well you said let’s say we couldn’t go back into all time highs. But that is not a small chunk of change to get into one of these contracts.
00;07;04;19 – 00;07;20;02
It’s interesting. I mean, they could call up at something that I think people are going to continue to want to talk about for sure. All right. Thanks, Jabar. Appreciate it. We’ll certainly want to keep an eye on that that way. Yep. We have another request, another one of our long time listeners. And they have put in requests before this is our international presence.
00;07;20;02 – 00;07;20;14
That’s right.
00;07;20;18 – 00;07;22;27
These corn we looked at this last time, I.
00;07;22;27 – 00;07;24;03
Think we did.
00;07;24;06 – 00;07;38;16
Or. Yeah, we’ve looked at this. Obviously we’ve looked at this one before. This is this is tough because to me. So let’s get rid of a few things here to kind of clean it up a little bit. We’ll keep this one though, because I think this is one this is the one that could be a little bit dicey.
00;07;38;18 – 00;08;00;28
This 430 area more or less. Right. I know this isn’t precise, but for 30 obviously has acted as a pretty good support and it’s now acting as resistance. You already said it once. What was once support becomes resistance and vice versa. You already talked about the foreign feeders just now, so is it going to continue like 430 is obviously a very big key area.
00;08;01;05 – 00;08;25;11
And what’s interesting about this is that the only thing that bothers me about this chart is this candle right here. Today’s cannot it looks like a big fat hammer. I mean if it it to me this could be I think you go and test for 30 again and see where this market really is. Right. You like if you can’t break through 430 and come back down, that is a real sign of weakness.
00;08;25;14 – 00;08;26;03
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Because this is obviously had a pretty substantial break. It’s done it on a lower hot lower hot lower lower. Right. I mean, look at this one, 234 broke through support. That is so like that’s several confirmations in a row. Yeah. So it’s it’s hard to argue. I also threw this one on here to the ADX. So yep.
00;08;47;10 – 00;09;06;27
Oh it’s a, it’s a it’s an indicator that basically indicates strength in trend. It’s an absolute value. And so like the fact that the it going up basically is saying that the trend has built in strength. Whatever trend is in place is building strength. It going down is telling you it’s like here, see how the market was kind of consolidating.
00;09;06;27 – 00;09;28;15
It’s starting to lose momentum. Whereas like right here from here to here very strong trend. So it’s moving higher. Yeah. So just because it’s going up doesn’t mean the market needs to be going up. All means is it that there’s an established trap okay. This is saying that like that ADX is saying that the downtrend here, like the price action that built that strength in the ADX.
00;09;28;15 – 00;09;33;06
So in this case lower price action isn’t a well is becoming a well-established trend.
00;09;33;08 – 00;09;52;05
So speaking of that, if you wouldn’t mind, can you switch it to a weekly really quick. Here is and this is building off of the feeders that we just looked at. And you have them circled for the last time we looked at this, but we created a lower high, promptly broke off of that. And then if you look, I don’t know if you have the circled or not.
00;09;52;08 – 00;10;07;00
Back in July. August, same timeframe, actually. August, September, there’s a gap at 395. And I know we you and I talked about it before. A lot of markets like to go and trade even numbers. The next closest even number is going to be $4, right.
00;10;07;00 – 00;10;08;06
Or else.
00;10;08;09 – 00;10;28;16
So my question is do we go test for dollars. The market starts to kind of overreact, freak out a little bit. You trade 391 fill the gap on a weekly basis and then kind of sit there and dictate, okay, where where are we truly at in this market? Because at that price, you’re going to be near the lows that we saw.
00;10;28;17 – 00;10;34;00
Like I said back last Covid. Exactly. And then you got to go back five years.
00;10;34;03 – 00;10;55;15
Yeah. I’m I’m with you okay. It’s hard because like you’re saying, you’re suggesting that people get short, which are a pretty substantial break. But to your point, the weekly is saying it’s weak. I think you’d want to have a little bit of a tighter stop on it. That’s why I looked at that 430 number. I think you have to give this hammer a chance.
00;10;55;20 – 00;11;20;09
Shorter term, like you talk about more of, like, an execution standpoint right here. Right? That’s a hammer. Typically you see those and their follow was more friendly price. Ouch. Okay. Exception. That’s why I see this hammer. And I’m like, well, the first thing I think that’s like the subsequent price action and something else, it is to move back into this, to go test this area of now resistance on support and resistance.
00;11;20;11 – 00;11;30;14
If it can’t become if it can’t stay resistance. And when it you see like a close let’s say it goes and tests for 30 opens at 431. Closes at 436 the next day.
00;11;30;16 – 00;11;31;16
Yeah.
00;11;31;18 – 00;11;43;16
I wouldn’t want to sell at all. So I think I think a test of this, I think a test of that is necessary. And then if it if it fails against it then it’s a that’s a, that’s another sign that it’s a sale. Right. It’s tough.
00;11;43;19 – 00;12;08;02
So let’s think about that with the short week. So today is Tuesday. We got Wednesday Thursday trading. We’re close for the holiday on Friday 4th of July. The funds are net short. I think it’s 200,000 positions and plots right now for corn. So tell me if I’m thinking about this wrong. Would the funds wait or anyone else? Would we wait for the next two days to see if we can’t bump up against 430, maybe 435 like you’re talking about?
00;12;08;04 – 00;12;17;13
Wait until after we get back after the weekend, the long holiday weekend, and then reestablish more short positions into the corn market.
00;12;17;16 – 00;12;29;06
I don’t know if your answer is I don’t know. I don’t think it really I don’t I don’t necessarily think it’s like waiting. Will we absolutely have to wait until after the holiday? Because if they’re looking to add shorts, what if tomorrow we’re below this low.
00;12;29;08 – 00;12;38;12
Going in with your hammer right now. If you’re going to get that bump up for 3435, would you wait to see if you can actually get back up there by Thursday?
00;12;38;19 – 00;13;01;08
If we open if we open higher. So tonight. Right. Seven. So I think it opens at 7:30 p.m. central. Like if we open higher tonight and then are trading higher at the eight, the tomorrow’s open tomorrow morning. And yeah I think you got to give it a chance okay. I think this is one of those times where it’s like you want to be mindful of like, okay, we got like the technical pattern kind of taking shape.
00;13;01;11 – 00;13;24;29
What is the next bar open start to look like? Because if you open below this what is this open here. So for 20 this thing it did settle lower on the day. But yeah if this thing’s like if you settle it let’s say you open it like for 20 right. So $0.02 lower from here like basically go back to this this open or like this settlement.
00;13;24;29 – 00;13;47;18
Excuse me for 21. That’s a sign of like that’s a failure for this hammer to start to play out. You need to see the open. You really need to see an open above this close, which is 422. You need to see like a 423 type open and then 80 or for 24 to 425 come 830 tomorrow morning. Then yeah, I definitely want to wait to see how that’s, that’s showing more signs of strength that that’s actually has some legitimacy to it.
00;13;47;21 – 00;13;49;00
The rational right here.
00;13;49;02 – 00;13;49;23
Okay.
00;13;49;25 – 00;14;12;12
So yeah, it’s a dicey one for sure. But to your point you got one. You have one, two, three, four lower highs in a row breaking of major support. And then the weekly I mean there’s nothing that’s been looking at the weekly that says this is a screaming buy. I mean you have this big huge lower high and then this gap right here.
00;14;12;12 – 00;14;13;25
That’s unfinished business.
00;14;13;28 – 00;14;15;01
Yep.
00;14;15;03 – 00;14;22;07
So I agree I mean, I think if you’re looking for spots to sell it or at least maintain shorts if you’re short, maybe you’re buying calls but staying short.
00;14;22;09 – 00;14;23;22
Yeah, that makes sense. All right.
00;14;23;22 – 00;14;45;12
We got one more. Right. It’s an oldie but a goodie. Ooh. This is semi cheddar block trades on a spa basis at the exchange. We look at it on a weekly basis. Huge day. This was this would have been yesterday really was. Yeah. So today’s Tuesday. Yesterday’s Monday. That’s why it gapped open like this yesterday we were up ten.
00;14;45;14 – 00;15;11;05
So it’s interesting is that this. It’s making a clear bounce off of the this. Yeah. Yeah I mean it’s we’ve just been in this channel as one long channel since we entered into it back in October of last year. So the failure to break through this and really like we should have, should have opened at like 160 on Monday.
00;15;11;08 – 00;15;15;16
So this is saying at the very least we want to go try to go fill this gap I think I agree.
00;15;15;23 – 00;15;16;15
Yeah.
00;15;16;18 – 00;15;36;07
And what’s interesting is the what was it Thursday, Friday, maybe even earlier than that. But we had three days in a row where I believe it was the August futures, a particular so not July’s pricing right now this is where we believe week three of July. But the August futures like that where they trade like a thousand plus contracts a day.
00;15;36;14 – 00;15;44;28
Yeah. Or something. 1200 in a row each day it was 1000 cars plus. Yeah. And it was trading it. Well, you know, let’s actually you know we’re.
00;15;44;28 – 00;15;46;22
At 640 right now.
00;15;46;24 – 00;16;08;04
Hang on. Since we’re on the subject. So this is August real fast. Yeah. It was basically these three days. So you really I mean, it took it took over 3500 cars to get this price action right here. And this is all pretty well. This at the time was well premium to this cash market. 1775 cash was up $16 on the current cash basis.
00;16;08;06 – 00;16;23;18
Massive volume changing hands all of a sudden. So there was certainly some signs in the futures market at least that was suggesting like people were willing to take ownership at a price that was well above the current at what was the current spot market at the time. So let me just dial this back in. There we go.
00;16;23;24 – 00;16;29;18
Okay. So yeah, it’s hard to argue like this has been a like this channel that we’ve built.
00;16;29;21 – 00;16;31;04
$1.60. Your 90.
00;16;31;04 – 00;16;50;21
Five. Yeah. And you know like the same the fundamentals haven’t changed a whole heck of a lot. It seems like they like it’s it’s old news but still the same like the rest of the world’s floating over two bucks, you know? Seems like we’re pretty awfully competitive export wise when you start talking about 160 cheese. But you know, the this market shown us when you start talking about 185 190 cheese.
00;16;50;23 – 00;16;52;06
It doesn’t like it very much.
00;16;52;09 – 00;16;56;20
No. And when it doesn’t like it, it I mean we retrace in a hurry.
00;16;56;23 – 00;16;58;24
Well and I always butcher this.
00;16;58;29 – 00;17;01;27
Bulls climb up the stairs and bears jump out of the window.
00;17;02;02 – 00;17;09;04
He sees that it was like, so eloquently, but also like just in a way that was it wasn’t rushed, just felt like.
00;17;09;06 – 00;17;10;14
Well, the only reason is because we’ve talked.
00;17;10;16 – 00;17;14;02
You’re the real star of the show. I mean, like just when you were talking about this, just like.
00;17;14;04 – 00;17;20;16
This where it comes to fruition, right? Like when when things are bearish, we are bearish.
00;17;20;22 – 00;17;33;07
This feels like it’s in this channel. Like I guess I look at it and say you made a clear bounce off of this. Low futures are telling us we’re going to continue to move higher even after today’s price action. Right. We rallied a dollar and futures in two days and retraced $0.25 a bullish.
00;17;33;10 – 00;17;33;18
Yep.
00;17;33;22 – 00;17;55;10
So the futures market I mean gosh like August up 187 192. So call it about a buck 90 on average. So the futures markets telling us we’re going right back to basically the high end of this channel. So I think you have to be respectful of that. I think at the very least we got to go fill this gap, which is about 183 184 ish I agree.
00;17;55;12 – 00;17;55;22
I agree.
00;17;55;22 – 00;17;57;16
So we shall see.
00;17;57;18 – 00;18;06;25
We see well short week this week. We’ll see if we can do it by Thursday. Two more trading sessions in this week. If not we’ll open back up Monday and see what spike gives us.
00;18;06;27 – 00;18;09;04
Going to take some pictures or something like that, or like I’ve.
00;18;09;04 – 00;18;23;21
Got a GoPro. We’re going to take it to the fireworks stand, and when they shoot them off, I’m going to try to videotape it. Maybe we can put it on here when when I do. It’s a lot of fun. I mean, to watch them set it up and get it all wired in and shoot them off is actually quite the feat of, engineering.
00;18;23;23 – 00;18;29;15
And so it’s it’s pretty cool. I’m going to try to get a GoPro out there and kind of film the whole thing, so please do.
00;18;29;18 – 00;18;38;07
That’ll be fun. I’ll be sitting here with, like, those little, like, snake pellets. You know, those things are where you, like, light them in a little thing like the snake comes out and like some sparklers. That’s all we get.
00;18;38;12 – 00;18;39;24
Welcome. Oh, come on over to Michigan.
00;18;39;24 – 00;18;40;27
I may just have to make a trip.
00;18;41;03 – 00;18;59;08
All right, everybody, we appreciate you guys tuning in. Jabbar, we appreciate you sending us your request. International presence. We appreciate your request. If anyone has one for next week, please let us know. We’ll be back right after the 4th of July holiday. Everyone have a great rest of the week. It’s going to be have this weekend. Drink lots of water.
00;18;59;08 – 00;19;03;17
Enjoy the fourth. Enjoy time with friends and family. We’ll see you next week.
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