Tech Talk dives into this week’s commodity action with a focus on three key markets: whole milk powder, hogs, and the US dollar.
We break down the technical signals behind WMP’s continued slide, examine whether the momentum in hogs can hold, and discuss why the US Dollar might be setting up for a rebound.
➤ What key price levels should you watch?
➤ Are we near a turning point in any of these markets?
➤ And what do the charts say about risk/reward ahead?
Whether you’re trading, hedging, or just watching the markets, this breakdown gives you the insight you need to stay ahead.
💬 Got a market you want us to cover next week? Drop it in the comments below.
Charts sourced from the Ever.Ag platform.
Subscribe now for more great content!
Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.
Charts sourced from Ever.Ag Platform.
[bg_collapse color=”#004053″ icon=”arrow” expand_text=”Show Transcript” collapse_text=”Hide Transcript”]
(Transcipt auto-generated)
00;00;00;21 – 00;00;09;26
Future trading involves risk and not suitable for all investors. Content provided in the site for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
00;00;09;28 – 00;00;19;11
Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is Andy and we Paige Driscoll in the background. We make up the tech talk trio. Andy, how you doing?
00;00;19;13 – 00;00;25;06
If I was any better, I been somebody reached out and was making fun of me because I was doing this with my pen, by the way. So I got to do it again.
00;00;25;07 – 00;00;27;03
We got a lot of interesting comments on ourselves.
00;00;27;03 – 00;00;28;16
Sometimes that means they’re watching.
00;00;28;21 – 00;00;30;11
That’s right. They’re watching. Speed of watching.
00;00;30;14 – 00;00;31;25
Speaking of watching, we got.
00;00;31;25 – 00;00;38;22
Three requests today. One of them came from overseas going global. When we got that email, I was pretty pumped.
00;00;38;25 – 00;01;00;29
July whole milk powder. Some of the index. Yes. Super interesting chart. The interesting thing about it is that it’s already, you know, it it completed this right here. Right. And it had a couple this like this, this 36.25 price is clearly a big price for this. And I know it’s a little bit far, far away now but it’s clearly a big price.
00;01;00;29 – 00;01;14;22
So breaking through if we broke through that price it could be like like we got below. This doesn’t look good. I mean I’m just going to say it like it just doesn’t. At first glance it doesn’t look very good. And what I think could be unfinished business here is this guy right there.
00;01;14;25 – 00;01;16;24
It’s that 3830.
00;01;17;01 – 00;01;39;26
Yeah. There. Yeah, sure. 30. And a half, 3830. It really started at 3843 if we want to be super precise. But yeah, it looks weak. It filled this gap obviously here failed to put in a new high right here. Came back down. And now is kind of like I mean there’s the other piece of it too. It’s right up against that former high.
00;01;39;26 – 00;01;47;13
So if you broke down from there and it looks like we are this gap next in line, I don’t know what do you think.
00;01;47;16 – 00;01;54;08
That I would agree seems to be the next magnet after we sell it. We’ll see. We did. So settle right under 4000 today too.
00;01;54;09 – 00;02;15;29
Just just a hair below 4000, which is I mean obviously again pretty key number. It’s where this market accelerated from two. Right? I mean this thing got moving in a hurry. What is this high 4265. Once it got to 4000 and it did it in one, two, three, four, five days, basically. So yeah. And since then higher or lower.
00;02;15;29 – 00;02;29;26
He got through 4000. This gap looks like it’s the next kind of target. There’s doesn’t seem to be a whole lot technically that would suggest it’s going to just rip back. So I mean you could certainly get something that comes up some sort of like some sort of fundamental thing that’s not priced in right now.
00;02;30;04 – 00;02;32;01
Prior to BGT. Next to that.
00;02;32;06 – 00;02;47;06
Could be I mean, sure, could be. Yeah. There’s the ever changing trade wars that we continue to have. You know you never know what happens with that. But yeah. No this this yeah. Again all else equal at least once last week. This looks like it wants to go fill this gap. And then the next up would be cash.
00;02;47;06 – 00;03;11;25
Should we get through these two guys right here. There’s 36.25. Yikes. Momentum cross zero. Not good. Well I guess it depends on how you look at it. I mean we talked about it the other day like there’s always you know you see on this like on the news when the stock market is down like 500 points or whatever it is, there’s always the guy that’s like, but where is the guy who’s short and he’s just like, like, where is that guy or gal?
00;03;11;27 – 00;03;15;12
You know, they never show the short positions. It’s usually the bullish position.
00;03;15;14 – 00;03;20;07
Anyways, thank you for the international viewership and the request. Please keep them coming.
00;03;20;09 – 00;03;21;04
Absolutely.
00;03;21;07 – 00;03;29;05
Next one. This one comes from our very good friend Mr. Jay Balf. He asked for the porchetta but.
00;03;29;07 – 00;03;30;14
I think there’s a pork cut out.
00;03;30;21 – 00;03;31;07
We’re looking at.
00;03;31;07 – 00;03;32;05
Hot. I was looking today.
00;03;32;10 – 00;03;36;05
And we’re looking at. All right so August tops August piggies what do you think your.
00;03;36;05 – 00;03;37;22
Boss August piggies. Ooh.
00;03;37;25 – 00;03;39;06
Woohoo.
00;03;39;08 – 00;03;44;29
Definitely. I mean, if you take out the RSI, the momentum doesn’t look bearish right on the chart there.
00;03;45;01 – 00;03;47;19
Well I say the moment none of this bearish.
00;03;47;21 – 00;04;07;13
I’m just picking up the momentum. Did it cross bull. Come on up here real quick. Just seems like every time we kind of get up here, we start to roll ourselves over on the momentum chart and then make a little bit more of a dive. I wonder one, two, three, 4 or 5? Did we just complete the fifth wave of the oh yeah.
00;04;07;15 – 00;04;18;07
Oh, wave theory perhaps? I don’t have a draw now I’m here, but the weight of the momentum is kind of teetering over, and the RSI is above overbought territory.
00;04;18;10 – 00;04;26;09
Oh I agree with the RSI obviously. But remember RSI can be overbought or oversold for an extended period of time.
00;04;26;12 – 00;04;27;04
That’s correct. Yeah.
00;04;27;04 – 00;04;51;22
Momentum piece I agree it is trending up. But it’s also it’s it’s struggling up against I drew this right here right. It’s struggling against its former high which came also at a time when the market that’s when it had that that retracement right here. So this I mean this is a tough one because you know anytime you’ve tried to sell it you’ve just gotten constrained.
00;04;51;22 – 00;04;52;25
It goes.
00;04;52;27 – 00;04;54;19
So no even wrong.
00;04;54;21 – 00;05;04;26
Yes. So I don’t it to me there’s nothing really technically that’s suggesting this market. This is a weekly the files. Nothing is suggesting that this market is getting ready to roll over.
00;05;04;29 – 00;05;18;06
The candle from today. I mean, I guess you you engulfed yesterday’s move, but you we didn’t settle there, so we went down as we get to yesterday’s low. Let’s see here. Oh.
00;05;18;08 – 00;05;19;16
Yeah.
00;05;19;18 – 00;05;26;28
Not quite. Almost were within a quarter, quarter of a cent there. But you also retraced it.
00;05;27;01 – 00;05;47;02
Just to Josh. Yeah. Yeah, I agree man. I mean like if you think about to like look at this candle. This is just a monster one. Right. And if this monster is coming after all this. So the fact that the market is struggling to get back in with, within this range to settle within this, the range of this candle I think is really telling.
00;05;47;05 – 00;06;03;01
And we get to be really careful of trying to pick a top here. Right. And, you know, you’ve got this long term trend that again, it depends on where you want to start it. Right. Do you want to be a little more conservative. You can have it there if you want to. If you believe more that you should be using the closes, you could draw there.
00;06;03;02 – 00;06;21;04
Right? Let’s use this one. This has to break before you. I think you could call it a sale. So the fact that we can’t get back within the range of that candle right there, I mean, this probably looked like a sale to people too. Or like, I shouldn’t say sale is probably looked at first is saying like, man, this is just getting way too much.
00;06;21;04 – 00;06;31;17
It’s getting worse too. We’re moving too much, blah, blah, blah. Nope. So this I think you have you have to cross this low. This one is such a strong.
00;06;31;17 – 00;06;40;05
This reminds me a lot of cattle. They look very similar to each other, right? Oh, it’s going crazy. Well, no, we talked about when you try to get short, you’re wrong. You’re just. You’re wrong.
00;06;40;05 – 00;06;56;01
Yeah, yeah. I think you have to break a major trend here. You’ve made a good point, though. The RSI is telling you you want to be a little bit concerned if your long money flow continues to be strong and the momentum is dancing up against previous highs. So it hasn’t it has yet to make any sort of confirmation.
00;06;56;01 – 00;07;12;09
So if you’re selling it here, yeah, you’re taking a pretty good risk that you know like this candle is going to get, you know, I guess come back in and you’re going to break this trend. I think you’re better off violating this by getting too close to the trend, opening lower and then taking a shot at getting short, if that’s what you’re looking to do.
00;07;12;11 – 00;07;31;28
And if you did do that, this could be you’ve got quite a bit of room to break, whether it’s 50% 98 and change, right? I mean, that’s the kind of move you’d be looking for. So I think you can comfortably say like, let’s, let’s get more of a confirmation because this is a bucking the trend on this one.
00;07;31;28 – 00;07;39;28
So you already said it with with the other. Neat man. Bucking the trend has not been good. You’ve gotten punched in the nose countless times. Yeah. The trend is your friend.
00;07;40;00 – 00;07;42;09
Yes, the trend is your friend.
00;07;42;10 – 00;08;02;13
Thank you J balf as always, appreciate it. Last one was certainly not least. It came to us from our good friend, the one and only Iowa. Dan Iowa, Dan, Iowa. Dan was talking. I had I would end I mentioned that you like to drive over, tumbleweeds. You call these, you do or do it like you’re driving somewhere.
00;08;02;13 – 00;08;05;13
He’s flew over tumbleweed. And it was it was magnanimous.
00;08;05;13 – 00;08;16;06
We don’t have him in the Midwest. You go down the South. That got him everywhere. I just I’d never done before. When you hit it, I thought I would make, like, a little bit of a crunch, but it kind of kind of explodes and just makes, like a dusty mess all over the vehicle, which I found very interesting.
00;08;16;06 – 00;08;20;11
But it is a dusty weed, so it’s tumbling. It’s tumbling.
00;08;20;12 – 00;08;38;26
All right, back to business. We’re looking at the US Dollar Index. This is super interesting because it’s you know, we talked about, that just now because if you’re looking to get short waiting for the trend to break, and it really depends on where you want to draw this trend here for the US dollar, because it’s had such a substantial break.
00;08;38;28 – 00;08;47;10
But it’s starting to show signs of life from the long side. I think. Your favorite. What is it.
00;08;47;13 – 00;09;04;17
We got here? We got a got a sec gap there. Oh we got a w. It’s it’s oh I see, oh I see it now. It’s sure I was gonna bring that part up. If you wanted to get long here I think you can you could probably get long. And you know you’re, you’re probably going to want to exit that position.
00;09;04;17 – 00;09;12;17
If we get down to 97.5, we get that bottom from April. You know, you probably want to get out.
00;09;12;19 – 00;09;36;25
Right? I totally agree, I 100% agree. If you’re looking for a spot to get long, I’d say this is as good as any till date. The weekly is great. The daily though to me is just like. Like I said, to your point, you have this is 98.5. You’re risking down a 97 change. Whereas even if like you’ve got a 2 to 1 shot just to go, just to go back and test this area right here.
00;09;36;27 – 00;09;41;16
Let’s go look at this. This is a chart of the 102 call.
00;09;41;18 – 00;09;42;09
Okay.
00;09;42;12 – 00;10;02;10
I like I personally think charting options is something to be really mindful of. And I think it’s worth looking at. You don’t you don’t get as nearly as much price action here. Let’s take a look at another one just for kicks. Yeah. This is a this probably a little bit more of a trade strike. But you’re getting down to a price point where, you know the futures still haven’t put it in like a new low relative to that previous low that way.
00;10;02;10 – 00;10;22;01
Just like that. But the options are. So I look at it and say if you start to climb out here like this could be like an interesting buy and you just you talk about like risk reward, it would be even less from like a risk standpoint. Right? Right. So something to think about makes sense. I think I think options start really well up until you get to like a 50 delta I think I don’t know okay.
00;10;22;02 – 00;10;30;09
But yeah this one looks like you can pop a little pop risky. What does that mean for. What would that mean for the dairy space if we went back to, like 1021240?
00;10;30;09 – 00;10;50;24
Probably not as good as exports. I mean, depending on where the butter, cheese, whey all those numbers are. But as rice it always had us. The lower the dollar and the higher there currency, the better chance we as America have for exports. But looking back, I mean 98 I’m looking at on a weekly right now and it’s kind of forming a little bit of a W.
00;10;50;24 – 00;11;00;26
But we’re bouncing on this 98 number. I mean shoot that’s that’s lows going back into 2022. Right.
00;11;00;28 – 00;11;04;28
Yeah. Monthly me it’s just a monthly.
00;11;05;01 – 00;11;06;05
Yeah.
00;11;06;08 – 00;11;12;21
Yeah I see what you’re saying. I mean 100 basis points. Huge number for this chart. Huge number.
00;11;12;25 – 00;11;13;25
It really is.
00;11;13;28 – 00;11;29;26
I don’t I mean to me to your point going back to the daily you said it already the risk reward here from like the long side. It’s I think it’s good like the risk reward is you’re talking about 2 to 1 3 or 1 kind of shots. If you broke through this downtrend it could really go at the very least.
00;11;29;28 – 00;11;54;26
You know you just go back to monthly real fast. You’re talking about just going like we’re at this thing. It’s it’s been on this channel for since to your point, since Q1 of 2022. Exactly. Just going back and testing the upper end of this ranges, channel of that channel takes you to 105. Right? And that’s if we really want to get take the upper end of that setting right there.
00;11;54;29 – 00;12;03;25
It’s not even I mean yeah, you’re talking about retracing two thirds of this milk. It’s done that several times over the last three years.
00;12;03;28 – 00;12;04;23
Correct.
00;12;04;26 – 00;12;08;28
It’s a nice little spot by entry. Are you going to buy a couple vol 23I.
00;12;09;01 – 00;12;21;25
After talking about this I think you have to I mean, like you said, the risk reward is leaning heavier towards the reward and you know where to get out. If we drop below 97.5 and settle there, it’s just time to exit the position.
00;12;21;27 – 00;12;26;11
Of maybe look at buying some of those want those, those calls. I just love that. Step 100 I think.
00;12;26;11 – 00;12;39;13
We’re going to have to I know we used to look at a lot more of those, and we might have started looking at those a little bit more in depth. I think that’s a great way to look at things that are truly happening. Besides just the price action on the chart, like the the intricate workings of the price.
00;12;39;15 – 00;12;39;26
Correct.
00;12;40;02 – 00;12;42;08
Like that. I think you’ve got yourself a whole trade idea.
00;12;42;10 – 00;12;43;03
I like it.
00;12;43;06 – 00;12;43;28
We’ll see how it goes.
00;12;43;29 – 00;12;45;21
We’ll check back next week and.
00;12;45;24 – 00;12;55;10
See how it is. I’m going to write it down. I’ve got my little my little post-it of all the stuff I’m going to write down. Cody Edcs trade.
00;12;55;12 – 00;12;57;01
By at 98 one half.
00;12;57;04 – 00;12;58;19
610.
00;12;58;21 – 00;13;21;21
All right. Well, we’ll check in the next week on the dollar and see if we were correct or what happened with it. Big shout out to our three watching friends that emailed in and wanted to look at these different charts. We greatly appreciate it. Our first, if I’m not mistaken, our very first international ask, which is very cool actually, yes, we’re hoping to see some more of those down the road.
00;13;21;24 – 00;13;25;10
I’m just excited to see you. Like travel the Globe doing TikTok.
00;13;25;10 – 00;13;45;03
I love it. Well, we appreciate it everyone. Thanks for tuning in. If you have not already, please like subscribe. Give us a thumbs up on the channel. Keep tuning in to all of your friends family. Make sure they tune in. Try to get more subscribers trying to reach a broader audience. But until next week, you guys have a great rest of this week and even better weekend.
00;13;45;05 – 00;13;45;28
We’ll see you next time.
00;13;46;03 – 00;13;46;12
See ya.
[/bg_collapse]
The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-…
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod
