In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss the US Dollar, Oct Milk and Nov Feeders.
Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.
Charts sourced from Ever.Ag Platform.
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VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and it’s not suitable for all. Investor contact provided in.
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VOICEOVER
The statement is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
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CODY
Hello, everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, This is Andy. We are both back in the driver’s seat after about a three week hiatus. I like to give a shout out to Jimbo Jim MATTHEWS for filling in for me last week. You did a spectacular job, but we are maybe we’re back.
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ANDY
At maybe.
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ANDY
Back in the saddle with the cowboy himself. So what’s going on with the Packers, by the way? And the big game coming up?
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CODY
Packers. Bears bears a fever about one and a half points. I got the pack all day. I’m excited.
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ANDY
All day.
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ANDY
Comment subscribe on tech talk to get to Cody. He’ll bet you all day.
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CODY
All day.
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ANDY
So you’re you’re getting one and a half points and taking the Packers zero.
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CODY
Day impact. Yes sir.
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ANDY
Got it. Okay so they’re going to want to see.
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CODY
NFL football is back on tonight. It is. We’re back.
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ANDY
We’re back.
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CODY
It’s the best time of year.
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ANDY
You know what? I was talking to a guy today. We’ll call him for now. Right. So are we were talking about Frito pies. So it’s that weather is starting to come in where it’s getting a little crispier outside for sure. So those that are never had a Frito pie, it’s basically like you fill up like a bag of Fritos with chili and then maybe some cheese or something like that.
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ANDY
And you just like you eat it. I don’t know what else you do with the Frito Pie football food.
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ANDY
Yeah.
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ANDY
Doesn’t that sound like you’re at a game, don’t you? You got a Frito pie?
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CODY
Gets me excited, man. I’m for.
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ANDY
Well, so let’s see.
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ANDY
What kind of Frito I’m thinking like those scoops for those big ones. Those like you.
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ANDY
Got.
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ANDY
Chili in there.
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ANDY
Got a lot of it. All right, We got.
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ANDY
To. We got to get it. We got to get going.
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CODY
First started first.
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ANDY
Our first.
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ANDY
Chart came at requests. None other than the man himself.
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ANDY
Head.
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ANDY
Of insights, Phil Lord. We know him as whisk. Go Phil.
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CODY
Risk go fill.
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ANDY
US dollar. What you want to do here dollars are getting more expensive.
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CODY
I mean how have the dollar? It looks like a buy.
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ANDY
Fine We’re going to take that European vacation you’ve always talked about and take your you take your dollars and me and more spend them a little bit more aggressively.
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CODY
I think so. But if I’m not mistaken, then we look at the dollar about how it was like a month ago, a month and a half ago when we had that pretty wicked downturn there towards the end of August.
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ANDY
Yeah.
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ANDY
We did. And it was July. But who’s counting?
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ANDY
Make you think.
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ANDY
This is this is this is a weekly dollar, right? So we just have the daily. So let’s take a quick peek at the daily it’s been on a tear here 99 and now four and a half. Good night So I’ll start with the daily. What sticks out to me is two things. Obviously, you’ve got this nice big uptrend, but you’re starting to cross into overbought territory down here and that’s per the RSI.
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ANDY
So relative strength index, Well, it’s a secondary indicator. So the first is really just the chart itself and it’s strong like bull, but you’re getting some warning signs here that it’s crossed into overbought territory, which the sell signal would be is if it crosses back below. So the dash line here, So cross through this dash line and blow this up for you here.
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CODY
This is the first time you’re getting into overbought and territory, right? We touched it a few times, even going back into February, but never physically crossed it.
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ANDY
Correct. So last time it got into overbought territory, was back here in late Fed and we had a nice little down ticker here. Conversely, it got a look across into oversold territory AM.
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ANDY
That there that.
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ANDY
That the downtick that we just looked at on a weekly we’ll look at it in the second so the secondary indicators are saying it’s overbought so that is kind of pointing to like being a little bit cautious about being long here. That would at least suggest that like if you’re long and you’ve got some good equity in the position, buy puts or do something, maybe can just just get out, just outright buy calls or something.
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ANDY
But the other piece of it too, that I think is interesting is that you’re you’re not. So this is like the momentum piece of it. This is the other secondary indicator we like to look at. And it’s basically showing how today’s settle is relative to the last. In this case.
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ANDY
12 believe this is 12 pre.
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ANDY
Momentum these trade technically pretty well right and so you’re bumping up against like a former high right here and if it starts to kind of run out of gas that’s another signal that that this run higher is running out of gas. You’d want to see this break in the new highs for this to continue moving higher. But it’s not so that said weekly, a weekly, it looks like it’s so you’re getting a little bit of conflicting differences between the weekly and or conflicting charts between the weekly, the daily weekly still has it.
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ANDY
So says there’s still some more room to go. So you could see it’s kind of like just like a temporary setback and then have another leg up. According to this is this is not over yet on the weekly on a longer term basis.
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CODY
I mean, looking at the weekly, do you think we get back into that like 108 range, 109 going to where we started to really taper off and don’t fall apart last time?
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ANDY
So I think that’s I certainly think that’s possible. I think the first thing we need to do is pass this area and maybe consolidate for a little bit.
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ANDY
Okay.
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ANDY
I think we’re going to give some of this back and then have another leg up. So I put this here is like, you know, to your point, if we get to get that one away type, like basically where we really started to accelerate this break to get that, I think you’re going to have to get at least over this one on five half dirt here up against us close.
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ANDY
Right. Because this is this is this tried to get through and couldn’t do it. But these are the like the kind of bumped up against resistance here. So that close is 105 32 Yeah. I feel like you get a short term setback and then you’re going to go test this area again. And if it breaks through and then it’s a one hour late type trade.
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ANDY
Yikes.
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CODY
Just got to get past that little bit of running room.
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ANDY
Little bit of a.
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ANDY
Potential for a setback. And then on a very much longer term basis.
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ANDY
DAY Yeah.
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ANDY
That one on five half I mean look at that that’s a monthly.
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ANDY
A.
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ANDY
Lot of a lot of resistance there.
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CODY
Little rounding pattern going on there.
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ANDY
Dicey.
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ANDY
There Richard We’ll.
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ANDY
See.
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ANDY
Yeah I think I think if you were long you’d want to be a little bit cautious about a potential for a setback. And probably if you wanted to stay long, do something to hedge those long spine puts it. It could turn.
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ANDY
Into a little bit of a bumpy flight here.
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ANDY
That’s the way the deal is kind of peeking out at. Well, I like bumpy flights. Do you like bumpy flights?
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CODY
Not a big fan.
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ANDY
You’re not a big fan of bumpy flights? I’m not really a big fan of bumpy flights.
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CODY
I don’t think anybody’s a fan of bumpy flights.
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ANDY
Anyway.
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ANDY
There may be some people out there that like it. I don’t. But that doesn’t mean they don’t exist.
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ANDY
I don’t know.
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ANDY
What’s the next guy who cares about flying? Bam! This is October jumbo. And I look at this last time.
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CODY
You did this off.
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ANDY
I’m pretty sure he was talking about buying it. I don’t know. What do you think?
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CODY
I mean, I think last week you would have been right. I think even this week you could be right. We’re going to settle what we have to settle at today. So 41.
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ANDY
Okay, So it’s settled. 21 last reprice is 18? I think. So it settled it basically settled into a new high going back to like early May.
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ANDY
Right.
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ANDY
You had to go back in here to get the settlement.
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CODY
Now you’re bumping up against that 200 day moving average closed.
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ANDY
I think it was a settled above it.
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CODY
Then it fell above it. Oh, you’re right. I think we got to move there, though.
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ANDY
Yeah, you got to.
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ANDY
Really scroll in there. But it sure did.
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ANDY
You bet. Settled about 200.
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ANDY
Day moving average. That hasn’t happened. Gosh, you’ve got to go way back to March. I mean, this feels like I don’t know, this feels like it could add in some premium before it starts pricing. You want to learn more about pricing months, check out bases loaded with Joe. Yeah, I mean, it’s not that so you take October is Lester and Bryce 1918 1832 is current cash using Seth way.
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ANDY
I don’t.
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ANDY
Know add in like a nickel per pound and chase for $0.05. You’re talking about 40 $0.50 a class three sits in terms of premium to be fair. So it’s probably more like an 1875 1880 type price. It’s not really that big of a premium.
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CODY
It’s not.
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ANDY
It really isn’t. So for it to want to price in 7580 cent premium to, you know what, like a NASCAR type number before it begins pricing could still have another week of SAT right next week.
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ANDY
Correct. Yeah.
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ANDY
You could see a little paper here, especially now that you got over the 200 day.
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ANDY
In fact, I think it was Phil.
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ANDY
Was Phil that was talking about this bull flag, the potential for a bull flag here.
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CODY
You’re right. It was.
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ANDY
It was. Yeah. If you.
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ANDY
Take that, we still have this line. I didn’t touch it in terms of like the length of it, but this is where the where the the flagpole you to use that as your measurement.
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ANDY
20 bucks.
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ANDY
What do you think we’re going to go trade $20.
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CODY
Or I get the big stretch. I mean. Well I guess from 1980 to 20 bucks, you’re not asking too much. You know, 20 cent jump right there. It’s not out of the question. Like you said, we have another week of September. Anything could happen. We’re not even to the middle of the month yet. There’s a lot of things are propping this thing up to be a little bit more of a bullish October than we had originally anticipated.
00;09;02;20 – 00;09;06;18
ANDY
Well, football is right around the corner and people are going to be sprinkling cheese on those Frito pies.
00;09;06;20 – 00;09;07;19
ANDY
Exactly.
00;09;07;21 – 00;09;12;17
ANDY
So they kind of I mean, like people eat cheese, they eat pizza when they watch football. That’s fact.
00;09;12;19 – 00;09;13;02
CODY
Exactly.
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ANDY
So.
00;09;14;12 – 00;09;36;26
ANDY
Yeah, I mean, this what’s interesting about this is that you have this big inside day or outside day right here, right. It didn’t open lower like you would have expected, like below this low. That would have been kind of a really bear signal. And you’ve gotten all that back, Right. And so this right here, if you just look at a chart like this man that looks bell is weak.
00;09;36;28 – 00;09;37;20
ANDY
Right.
00;09;37;22 – 00;10;03;09
ANDY
But it handled that really well and is back now above that close of 1892, high of 1921. So we basically settled on the high here. Now, this move, I mean, that’s that’s a friendly looking chart, I think it doesn’t feel like you need much out of the cash market to get this thing to pop. But I think if they bought that barrel lunch today, I think was offered a down just like a penny or two, something morbid maybe bid, but I don’t think you need to put the block up that much.
00;10;03;09 – 00;10;06;28
ANDY
It just it doesn’t feel like you need to get a lot of upside out of cash to get.
00;10;06;28 – 00;10;08;16
ANDY
October to pop here.
00;10;08;18 – 00;10;22;14
CODY
Right. And lately, I think you mentioned this outside of tech talk. We’ve had a lot of support around 19 bucks and we saw the same thing today. So the very same thing today. You get one offer it honestly kind of fall apart a little bit. And then as soon as it closes, you know, trades right back up.
00;10;22;17 – 00;10;41;28
ANDY
I guess the only thing like, you know, where are we wrong is if we get if we get a close below all this noise. So what’s this low? This is 1878. This one’s 1875. I think if you got to close below the last two days, not including today lows that to me would be a pretty wicked reversal there.
00;10;42;00 – 00;10;48;07
ANDY
You probably want to reconsider the longs, but I think there’s a pretty good risk reward here, right from being on the one side.
00;10;48;10 – 00;10;57;12
CODY
I completely agree with you. Now, the question is, do you want to buy something on the open tonight? Do you want to wait? See how we kind of trade into tomorrow morning?
00;10;57;15 – 00;11;05;00
ANDY
I think if we open higher tonight, it’s it’s one of those things where, let’s say let’s say we opened at 19 and a quarter or something like that.
00;11;05;03 – 00;11;05;26
ANDY
I mean, that.
00;11;05;29 – 00;11;10;11
ANDY
That to me it’s a it’s you close in to new highs going back to early May.
00;11;10;14 – 00;11;10;26
ANDY
Right.
00;11;10;26 – 00;11;19;06
ANDY
It closed above all this noise. Anybody that was selling it between here basically and up till now is now underwater.
00;11;19;09 – 00;11;20;13
ANDY
True.
00;11;20;16 – 00;11;37;04
ANDY
So I think you can get that push, but I think you need that stronger open. I think we need to open five certainly, you know 19 porter type trade. You probably own some low but you haven’t crossed into overbought territory yet That right there too it’s got some room on some of the secondary stuff to to to give it a little bit of a push.
00;11;37;04 – 00;11;38;01
ANDY
I don’t.
00;11;38;03 – 00;11;38;21
ANDY
I don’t think.
00;11;38;21 – 00;11;39;10
ANDY
We just rip.
00;11;39;10 – 00;11;40;15
ANDY
Higher.
00;11;40;17 – 00;11;45;17
ANDY
I don’t think we’re 20 and a half type trade but yeah, to go trade like 1975, I don’t think it’s out of the question.
00;11;45;17 – 00;11;49;03
ANDY
All right. We’ll see.
00;11;49;05 – 00;11;50;06
CODY
We’ll see.
00;11;50;08 – 00;11;52;06
ANDY
Speaking of strong like bull.
00;11;52;09 – 00;11;53;07
ANDY
You ask.
00;11;53;08 – 00;11;54;23
ANDY
But not certainly not least.
00;11;54;28 – 00;11;56;07
CODY
One of our favorites.
00;11;56;09 – 00;11;57;19
ANDY
I mean, is.
00;11;57;19 – 00;12;02;26
ANDY
Costa Dairy just you guys just. That’s it. Liquidate all the way. Just take the cows, the beef there.
00;12;02;26 – 00;12;21;07
CODY
I mean, all joking aside, it seems to be that’s what a lot of people throughout the country are doing with these prices. Even looking at this chart, I mean, if you’re not making a whole lot of money in the milk check and you get a little bit extra for calling some of these cows, we’ve seen it. You and I have talked to guys who are doing that because of this reason and this pricing right here.
00;12;21;07 – 00;12;40;19
CODY
It it it just continues. And I think that’s the biggest thing a lot of people have asked me is like, okay, when is when is the party over? When is this high price going to stop? And I don’t know, every time I go back and look at the chart, I’m like, I honestly don’t know. If you look at this, No feeder chart at 250, you’ve got a lot of support that we have seen.
00;12;40;22 – 00;12;43;00
ANDY
For the past. I mean, yeah.
00;12;43;02 – 00;12;47;25
ANDY
And so, I mean, this is like when you think about like an uptrend or just a trend period.
00;12;48;02 – 00;12;49;18
ANDY
Yeah, it’s not like.
00;12;49;24 – 00;12;56;19
ANDY
It’s not showing unsustainable price action, meaning like, you know, you just rip like, you know, a nickel, nickel a nickel like these big.
00;12;56;21 – 00;12;57;09
ANDY
Moves.
00;12;57;09 – 00;13;02;06
ANDY
Right? So like, what I’m talking about, it’s kind of like October real fast. Is this.
00;13;02;08 – 00;13;03;26
ANDY
Right October.
00;13;03;28 – 00;13;12;14
ANDY
That let low for 1704 three days later it’s highs, pretty much 19 bucks that type of rate of change. It’s just not it’s not sustainable price action.
00;13;12;14 – 00;13;16;29
ANDY
Right. Right. Unless you’re three bucks and we’re not in the $3.
00;13;16;29 – 00;13;33;10
ANDY
But I don’t think that’s happening right now. So but like the I guess my point is, is that that’s very sustainable price action. It’s not ripping its face off. It’s just steadily grinding higher. So I think until that changes, price action is just it’s very strong. And going back to your comment about uncharted territory, this is.
00;13;33;11 – 00;13;34;10
ANDY
One place.
00;13;34;12 – 00;13;44;10
CODY
That, yeah, I just pull over monthly also and now we’re just we just keep climbing. This thing, like you said, I mean, not straight up, but it’s just climbing itself higher.
00;13;44;13 – 00;13;45;01
ANDY
Yeah.
00;13;45;03 – 00;14;07;22
ANDY
And this right here, what’s interesting about this chart is you had this big move and there was just next to nothing out of the bears. Look at this. You went from 195 to 240, and like the next couple of months, we’re just kind of like, ho hum, but did a little they didn’t even retrace anything. I mean, this was a higher close right here and then open higher and keep going.
00;14;07;25 – 00;14;29;26
ANDY
So I don’t know. I hear you. And when people asking the question like, when’s the party over, I think you need to see like a daily chart like this really accelerate. You’ve got some longer term, like if you really want to just I guess, start from right here, right when does this get broken and then confirmed? We have yet to see like the major trend have any sort of like breakdown.
00;14;29;29 – 00;14;33;19
ANDY
So that I mean, that has to happen to even think about getting short.
00;14;33;21 – 00;14;53;19
CODY
In my only earlier question is if you can go back to the monthly real quick and RSI, this is going back quite a ways. But if you look back at the 2014 when we made that massive run up, kind of like we’re doing right now, and then you went into overbought territory. I mean, we’re kind of at that same.
00;14;53;22 – 00;14;56;09
ANDY
Mark and right now. But yeah.
00;14;56;12 – 00;15;09;22
CODY
But we haven’t we haven’t seen the VIX like we had seen back in 2014 where it was giving you look and say, this thing is probably going to pull back a little bit, kind of forming into an information back then and now there’s nothing of the sort.
00;15;09;29 – 00;15;33;01
ANDY
So here’s one thing to be really mindful of, and it just hit me, and I’m glad you brought this up about this piece, because if it start if it if it can’t get into higher than this 84 mark on the RSI. So I’m looking at right here versus right here, then that’s that’s a beginning sign of weakness. You could also potentially it has the potential and it things happening it’s got the potential for what’s called an island reversal.
00;15;33;03 – 00;15;57;28
ANDY
And what that means is that you have like a gap higher on this candle gap’s higher and then the next candle gets lower. So it would kind of like, you know, open around where this bear this close, it’s 249. So an island reversal, typically you see again, you have this big move gaps in the next and that in that direction in this case higher and then the next candle kind of gap’s a little bit lower and then starts to progress lower.
00;15;57;28 – 00;16;01;06
ANDY
That’s that is an island has potential for an island reversal.
00;16;01;06 – 00;16;02;10
ANDY
Oh okay.
00;16;02;13 – 00;16;05;04
ANDY
It’s still one seventh so there’s still.
00;16;05;04 – 00;16;05;26
ANDY
Plenty.
00;16;05;26 – 00;16;24;24
ANDY
Of time left on this bad boy right here, this candle. So it’s really early to say that. But if come, you know, end of the month and we’re still here and then we open lower, you haven’t like a gap lower than next month, that would be a that would be a sign of weakness for sure. And then you would likely get like this, this RSI would which should theoretically roll over.
00;16;24;26 – 00;16;25;17
ANDY
Right.
00;16;25;19 – 00;16;27;28
ANDY
To something kind of wild. By the way, you know, this right reminded me I’m right.
00;16;27;28 – 00;16;30;29
ANDY
Here so that that m.
00;16;31;02 – 00;16;31;15
ANDY
That you looked.
00;16;31;16 – 00;16;33;23
ANDY
At reminds me of.
00;16;33;25 – 00;16;35;11
ANDY
April 2011 milk.
00;16;35;15 – 00;16;36;27
ANDY
Look at that.
00;16;36;29 – 00;16;38;00
ANDY
This was a crazy move.
00;16;38;01 – 00;16;38;17
CODY
There you go.
00;16;38;19 – 00;16;39;23
ANDY
You know why?
00;16;39;26 – 00;16;55;02
ANDY
Because I think if I remember correctly, it’s been a while, but current cash before pricing was like up here and then current. Yeah, we started pricing like right around here and the cash went to like here. So anyways, when I saw that on the feeders.
00;16;55;04 – 00;16;57;04
ANDY
What does that a monthly that look.
00;16;57;04 – 00;16;58;01
ANDY
Just like it.
00;16;58;03 – 00;17;00;20
CODY
I mean it’s definitely good to go back and look at stuff like that.
00;17;00;20 – 00;17;02;22
ANDY
That’s wicked.
00;17;02;25 – 00;17;04;08
CODY
Yeah, exactly.
00;17;04;10 – 00;17;04;21
ANDY
All right.
00;17;04;21 – 00;17;13;13
ANDY
Well for now though I, I guess keep an eye on the potential for an Allen reversal. We’ll see. I don’t know. Is the Hammer doing anything?
00;17;13;16 – 00;17;20;12
CODY
You know, I think right now the hammer is actually in a buy some feeders. It’s been a couple weeks. The hammer’s back out.
00;17;20;14 – 00;17;22;28
ANDY
Get that thing out. Let’s take a look. What are you guys buying?
00;17;22;28 – 00;17;24;13
CODY
I think we’re buying no feeders right now.
00;17;24;17 – 00;17;27;08
ANDY
I know. Feet. Are you buying? October melted.
00;17;27;10 – 00;17;39;03
CODY
You know what? I think we’re going to be buying October melt, and I believe we’re going to be buying the dollar index. Also, this is a this is what we like to call in the business a trifecta. Trifecta buying all three.
00;17;39;05 – 00;17;43;17
ANDY
And on that note, it is great to see you back in the saddle.
00;17;43;19 – 00;17;44;10
ANDY
The Cowboys.
00;17;44;10 – 00;17;45;15
ANDY
Back.
00;17;45;18 – 00;17;47;25
ANDY
So at all.
00;17;47;28 – 00;18;04;06
CODY
I’m happy to be back and pumped rumors again. We will see everybody next Thursday. We will not be in a hiatus for a long time. We appreciate Phil calling in. Ask us for these charts, then what we think everybody else would like to see. Any going further. Please give us a call. Shoot us an email, maybe a text.
00;18;04;09 – 00;18;16;20
CODY
We’d be happy to take a look at them and chat about not just like we’re doing right here, but until then. Thanks everybody for watching. Have a great weekend. Enjoy the Bears Packers game and we’ll see you next week.
00;18;16;23 – 00;18;23;09
ANDY
You set up your smoke signals, by the way, so people can like smoke signals. Charts are like it was carrier pigeons write carrier pigeons.
00;18;23;12 – 00;18;25;11
CODY
Anyway, from pigeons coming out my window.
00;18;25;12 – 00;18;30;07
ANDY
I think you should trade with carrier pigeons. I really think that that would be like that would just…
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