In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss Dec corn, the S&P 500, crude oil, and Nov class IV.
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00;00;00;17 – 00;00;07;16
VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and it’s not suitable for all. Investor contact provided in the statement is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy. Or sell commodities.
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CODY
Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk on this glorious Thursday afternoon, the 5th of October. I am Tony. This is Andy. We’re the tech talk crew. Andy, how are you doing?
00;00;22;17 – 00;00;23;15
ANDY
Good, How are you?
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CODY
I’m doing a well.
00;00;24;28 – 00;00;27;20
ANDY
Glorious Thursday afternoon. Glorious.
00;00;27;22 – 00;00;32;21
CODY
It’s glorious. It’s awesome. It’s a little rainy outside, but it’s all right. You can’t control everything in life right now.
00;00;32;22 – 00;00;41;18
ANDY
You can cannot. You’re very stoic today. Glorious. You can’t control everything in life. You know, It’s just like you’re just. I don’t know. You’ve got to look.
00;00;41;20 – 00;00;43;22
CODY
Glass half full kind of guy.
00;00;43;24 – 00;00;55;19
ANDY
The glass sits half full. I mean, you only have, like, one glass, right? You’ve got, like, two spoons, one glass, one board. It’s a bowl half full. But, like, you only get one to get carried away.
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CODY
Nope. No animals.
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ANDY
What about, like, a bird or something?
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CODY
No one’s farm over here.
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ANDY
He could be that for all we know. There you go.
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CODY
The sun always really low.
00;01;06;29 – 00;01;07;25
ANDY
We.
00;01;07;27 – 00;01;14;14
CODY
We got a pretty full docket today. We got four charts. First one. Well, this connection like.
00;01;14;17 – 00;01;24;07
ANDY
This, it drove speed up farming. Here we go. All right. Barbara Farmer. Bill, what do you think here? All caps, exclamation points.
00;01;24;10 – 00;01;25;11
CODY
Exclamation points.
00;01;25;11 – 00;01;26;02
ANDY
Oh.
00;01;26;05 – 00;01;30;10
CODY
First time we’ve settled over the 50 day moving average in months.
00;01;30;12 – 00;01;33;11
ANDY
Look at you, Richard.
00;01;33;13 – 00;01;38;17
CODY
And if I’m not mistaken, you still have circled because you haven’t touched this chart since we talked about the last time, right?
00;01;38;19 – 00;01;42;22
ANDY
Not touched at all. Zero one second. Right there. There’s a.
00;01;42;23 – 00;01;56;02
CODY
Gap there. It is a little gap. People are going to make fun of us. There’s a gap of 525 and score and everybody. Oh, which I mean, we have we have a little bit of a ways to go. Where did we settle out here today?
00;01;56;05 – 00;01;56;29
ANDY
Shy of five.
00;01;56;29 – 00;01;59;26
CODY
Bucks? Yeah, maybe seven and a half.
00;01;59;29 – 00;02;18;27
ANDY
You make a great point. You settled over not one, but two moving averages, one you haven’t settled over. And some time since. By the way, by the way, last time we settled over that, where do we. What did we do? I guess we promptly broke out. But we made that gap. See that? Those two candles right there? Oh, yeah.
00;02;18;29 – 00;02;40;11
ANDY
Blowing through that 50 day brought about that gap. Right. So yeah, ipso facto. Ipso facto. Have your boss like it starting to leave a lot of selling behind and I mean we’ve clearly broken out of what has been like this down know this big downtrend couldn’t get through for 70 I know Jimbo and I talked about that at length at length.
00;02;40;13 – 00;02;44;26
ANDY
I hope he’s feeling better after the Bears game. Sorry, Jim.
00;02;44;29 – 00;02;53;26
CODY
But a big telling point on this. I think you need to settle above $5, right? I mean, we’ve tested five bucks and could not settle above there since August. Beginning of August, right?
00;02;53;26 – 00;03;07;12
ANDY
Yeah, I mean, for sure. And it’s I mean, it’s like it’s $5, you know, it’s like $20 mil kind of thing. Right now you settle at 1999 versus 21 selling to tick difference. But that’s a big difference, like mentally, right? So psychological.
00;03;07;15 – 00;03;07;25
CODY
It’s a big.
00;03;07;25 – 00;03;32;07
ANDY
Psychological break. You’re you’re a stoic and a psychologist all at the same time. It’s just crushing it. So, yeah, I mean, what would be even like so five bucks and then I think it close over, what is it, five or seven? These highs took a couple of shots here and couldn’t do it. So I think that if you certainly get it close over five or seven, it’s launch button to the launch button activated to keep you.
00;03;32;13 – 00;03;35;06
CODY
Up until the gap or above the gap, you think up.
00;03;35;06 – 00;03;37;16
ANDY
Until the gap getting a split and we’ll see where we go.
00;03;37;18 – 00;03;39;01
CODY
All right. It’s very fair.
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ANDY
Because sell this one. I know one scout still with.
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CODY
Schofield has.
00;03;44;13 – 00;03;44;27
ANDY
Been talking.
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CODY
About.
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ANDY
This one right.
00;03;47;23 – 00;03;49;04
CODY
Here. Here we go.
00;03;49;06 – 00;04;18;11
ANDY
S&P, some people call the spoo, you know, not doing so hot. But if we look at the weekly so when last time we talked about this before, I didn’t touch I did not touch any of this jazz right here. So it is kind of do or die time for this this whole Elliott wave, right? Yeah. Because you have broken out of what was a clear downtrend that began in the beginning of 2022 right here.
00;04;18;14 – 00;04;35;00
ANDY
And you made a couple higher lows and then start to break out, did it in a way to that trended really well, right? It wasn’t like unsustainable price action. So now that we’ve retraced some of that move, the question is, do we keep on? Do we keep on rocking here? Tough one is that some of the secondary indicators are telling.
00;04;35;00 – 00;04;58;16
ANDY
You know, they’re saying that we’re going to break. When I say that, I mean like the momentum here, this crossed zero right from here to here, these two candles, that suggests weakness. And you’ve also got kind of in like the middle of the road here for our side. So there’s there’s room for this to continue breaking. So like I said, it’s mixed signals here, but it’s do or die time for whether or not this Elliott wave is going to play out.
00;04;58;19 – 00;05;17;26
ANDY
If you get a subtle this is what, 432 and a half ish. So I think you close over. This was this weekend. So this is this week’s candle says this is last week’s candle. I think we get a close over that high 4383 then I think this this continues on a low There’s a lot of stuff kind of like floating around.
00;05;17;26 – 00;05;30;28
ANDY
We got a stay of execution with the whole like speaker of the House and the shutdown. We’re not shutting down or shutting down the studio, kind of saying, like right side note, I think you should be speaker of the House. Just throw it out there.
00;05;31;04 – 00;05;34;00
CODY
I mean, I think I could probably do a pretty good job at this point.
00;05;34;00 – 00;05;50;01
ANDY
I think you could do I think you could do a good job just like show up with the hammer and just like, look, this is what we’re doing. You know what? I think you can probably loosen up the dress code, too. They’re all like suits, and it’s just bury like button, not the whole thing. Like, you can just show up and, like, let me guess, black polo or country.
00;05;50;01 – 00;05;53;03
CODY
Rhymer, like, well, let’s get this country back on track here.
00;05;53;05 – 00;06;12;29
ANDY
I mean, it’s like, that’s a nice little campaign slogan. Let’s get this country Rockin. 2024 Cody Kaiser, Speaker of the House or Sooner Country Rock and we’re going to Cody. So yeah it’s go back to the right time if let’s say we if if you retrace at least like let’s call it like 50% of this move, you’re in jeopardy of retracing all of it at that point.
00;06;12;29 – 00;06;39;18
ANDY
Right? That’s usually what you seem like a second wave, right? 35 to 50%. Anything more than that, then? You know, it’s it’s curtains for this thing. The daylight didn’t look great. But again, you really have this move started back here. So I don’t think you can get super short until you get that until you retrace back in this 4200, because then now you’re really starting to jeopardize you, break below this 58 or 50 week, I should say.
00;06;39;21 – 00;06;46;22
ANDY
And then the 200 week, this 200 period moving average becomes a little bit of a target, which can get a little dicey. So the wealth effect.
00;06;46;28 – 00;06;50;01
CODY
Let’s wait a few weeks for we check our retirement accounts was.
00;06;50;01 – 00;07;04;20
ANDY
Just wait a couple two or three weeks they say. That said, speaking of wealth and the wealth tax and people’s ability to spend money they crude oil. So this last week. So as the new speaker of the House, what’s like the first order of business for you so.
00;07;04;22 – 00;07;15;29
CODY
Well probably make crude grade again because last time last week we talked about this which had not broken that long term trend line that you have drawn there. And this week it obviously it’s broken.
00;07;16;01 – 00;07;16;23
ANDY
Pretty.
00;07;16;23 – 00;07;18;07
CODY
Darn, darn good news.
00;07;18;07 – 00;07;19;01
ANDY
Broke and.
00;07;19;07 – 00;07;22;04
CODY
Might be able to fill your gas tanks up a little bit cheaper. Right. I was going to.
00;07;22;04 – 00;07;24;09
ANDY
Ask how much the cost of Phillips truck.
00;07;24;11 – 00;07;33;02
CODY
I mean, honestly, at the gas pump, I don’t think prices have moved that bad, even though crude is kind of taking a little bit of a dump scare here. I don’t think it costs any less to fill up a vehicle.
00;07;33;03 – 00;07;45;12
ANDY
I don’t know either. I certainly feel like it hasn’t changed a whole heck of a lot by me. But to your point, this thing is really like, you know, it was dry and then just. But I don’t think so. I don’t think I don’t. Richard.
00;07;45;15 – 00;07;48;26
CODY
Probably $70 a barrel. It looks like the next test. I mean.
00;07;48;26 – 00;07;55;29
ANDY
They’re going back to your 52 and corn. Just today, we settled below the 50 day for the first time. In how long? In a while.
00;07;56;01 – 00;07;56;19
CODY
That a while.
00;07;56;19 – 00;08;14;23
ANDY
What does that happen in here, too, either? So, I mean, you got given like the this break of this long term trend settled below a pretty significant moving average here. You know, bears tend to jump out the window, right? One bulls climb up the stairs. You got to think that this this little noise right here, this little nugget is going to start to get tested.
00;08;14;23 – 00;08;32;16
ANDY
77 and some change. Yeah, I mean, I mean, you could be there tomorrow, right? This was down a buck 60. This this one was down $4.89. So it’s not that far away. But I think this is like kind of like the next stop, the next test. And it would probably coincide too, with if you go back down here, it’s starting to get into oversold.
00;08;32;18 – 00;08;53;02
ANDY
Right. So still has an approach of it is approaching oversold territory has crossed into it. So you can’t you can’t like argue at least from like a secondary type indicator like that it’s oversold here. According to this. It’s not. And it’s got clear momentum working in its favor. I guess the other part of it, too, is these these tend to trade technically as well.
00;08;53;04 – 00;09;04;29
ANDY
So there’s some room both on the RSI as well as this momentum piece for continued weakness. And that seems to coincide with getting down on this little guy right here. So it seems like that’s the next step.
00;09;04;29 – 00;09;05;26
CODY
Okay.
00;09;05;28 – 00;09;09;10
ANDY
And then if he broke the 200 day, like, yikes.
00;09;09;13 – 00;09;13;29
CODY
I mean, I guess tomorrow, Friday. So we might get a good look at that. Tomorrow is what you’re kind of thinking.
00;09;13;29 – 00;09;19;26
ANDY
You’re just like negative, Nancy, on Friday. Like, what’s like, I thought the speaker of the House, you’re going to be positive on Friday.
00;09;19;26 – 00;09;23;22
CODY
So you’re asking. I was just asking. It’s close to the weekend. I was just for.
00;09;23;23 – 00;09;26;20
ANDY
His campaign slogan is let’s get this country rocking.
00;09;26;21 – 00;09;28;28
CODY
And like on Monday, not on Friday.
00;09;29;01 – 00;09;47;27
ANDY
On Monday, I’m on Monday, not on Friday. Your first order of business is to pass out like puppies and fireworks, everybody, and then get everybody a Frito by other additive. Yeah, I like it. I love Frito pies, by the way. It’s phenomenal If RR I’ll call him RR He’s out there. He’s a big Frito Pies himself. He’s a listener.
00;09;47;27 – 00;09;56;25
ANDY
Right. Last one. Last one’s class for class four, a little bit of a sign of weakness here. I have two bucks.
00;09;56;27 – 00;09;58;22
CODY
Today, by the way, class for November.
00;09;58;22 – 00;10;09;13
ANDY
$21. That was today’s high. The not 21 bucks, not 21 to 1, not 2099, 21 on the dot. What you want to do here?
00;10;09;15 – 00;10;14;21
CODY
Well, just looking down at the RSI might be overdone slightly to the topside here.
00;10;14;24 – 00;10;35;04
ANDY
It could be a Smitty overdone. The tough part about it is I know it starts pricing here soon, but I get current cash at $22.68. Granted, butter is in orbit right now. So that’s I mean this one is at Simmons. That one come down. It’s not so it really hasn’t done much to the overall price on its bottom.
00;10;35;06 – 00;11;03;25
ANDY
So I mean, it’s not it’s tough to sell because you’ve got this I mean, to put it in perspective, current cash is right here. Right. So if you don’t move, your cash is moves got come up here or some close to it. So this I mean this can be to your point the RSI is getting a little bit you got above some into overbought territory came back down that’s a sell signal in this kind of instance way back into that area.
00;11;03;25 – 00;11;08;19
ANDY
If you don’t clear this and come back down, then that is a that’s a pretty clear sign of weakness.
00;11;08;21 – 00;11;14;09
CODY
And as you mentioned earlier, I mean, butter is rocking and rolling with nonfat is just kind of a stagnant sideways.
00;11;14;11 – 00;11;17;09
ANDY
Yeah, it’s kind of stuck in mud. Right. So. Right.
00;11;17;12 – 00;11;28;23
CODY
And we need both of those for the class for pricing mechanism. So if NONFAT doesn’t get a little bit of a higher bump here, I just don’t know how much farther. No class war can really go. Right.
00;11;28;27 – 00;11;30;15
ANDY
Where’s butter going to go?
00;11;30;17 – 00;11;32;12
CODY
Yeah, that’s the big question.
00;11;32;14 – 00;11;52;02
ANDY
Yeah. I mean I it’s, I mean I feel like it’s the question that seems to be on anybody’s mind, right? I mean, every day we’re in a new record highs, all time record highs. So. But yeah, I mean, if you just if you just look at the chart, it’s getting itself into overbought territory again, but it’s not getting to a point where it’s like making a lower high right on that portion of it.
00;11;52;04 – 00;12;08;25
ANDY
So you got to be a little bit careful. So to me, this looks like a nice opportunity at the very least, let’s say you’re dairy producer and you want to get some sort of coverage there. Buying puts is probably the way to go right now. If you want to sell futures and you say, I like 21 bucks, probably worth your time to have a call or call spread.
00;12;08;25 – 00;12;33;28
ANDY
But on top of that now probably do like a 20 one half, $23 call spread or something like that to give yourself the ability to participate some butter, just sit there and not sit there and do nothing. We’re going to 20 to 70. So I may be something to do, but I mean, either buying puts or putting yourself in a position where you want to be short from 21 bucks, but you can have that calls for the top two.
00;12;33;28 – 00;12;35;04
ANDY
That can help, right?
00;12;35;08 – 00;12;36;19
CODY
It’s going to be topside.
00;12;36;21 – 00;12;39;04
ANDY
It feels like it could be a smidge volatile.
00;12;39;07 – 00;12;42;21
CODY
I just dismiss just a smidge.
00;12;42;27 – 00;12;47;20
ANDY
Just a smidge. Can I get like a can I get like a campaign shirt.
00;12;47;22 – 00;12;50;07
CODY
As soon as I get it made? You’re the first one that I’ll ship it to.
00;12;50;09 – 00;12;50;23
ANDY
Write.
00;12;51;00 – 00;12;51;24
CODY
Downs. Yeah.
00;12;51;26 – 00;12;56;06
ANDY
Is that your first campaign promise right there? Just sense that me, You’re.
00;12;56;08 – 00;13;10;26
CODY
The first in the best. All right, everybody, that’s going to do for Andy now. We appreciate you tuning in, looking through our charts. Anyone wants to see anything new for next week, please shoot us. An email gives a phone call. But until then, have a fantastic weekend. We’ll see you next week.
00;13;11;02 – 00;13;13;13
ANDY
Must keep this country rockin. According to Cody.
00;13;13;17 – 00;13;15;06
CODY
You got to.
00;13;15;09 – 00;13;16;01
ANDY
Finger pistols.
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