In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss spot block cheese, spot whey, spot nonfat and spot butter.

Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.

Charts sourced from Ever.Ag Platform.

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00;00;00;17 – 00;00;09;00
VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and it’s not suitable for all. Investor contact provided in the statement is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;09;03 – 00;00;23;16
CODY
Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Tony. This is Andy in for reference. It is Thursday, October 12th, 430 Eastern Time, 330 in the Central Time Zone. And this one.

00;00;23;18 – 00;00;24;23
ANDY
Good. How are you.

00;00;24;26 – 00;00;27;24
CODY
Doing? Well, doing well. A day before Friday the 13th.

00;00;27;26 – 00;00;29;24
ANDY
Huh? That’s spooky.

00;00;29;27 – 00;00;30;26
CODY
It’s never good.

00;00;30;28 – 00;00;34;27
ANDY
It’s never good. Friday the 13th is going to be on the nobody or. What’s going on with that?

00;00;35;00 – 00;00;40;13
CODY
It’s it could be. We’re not even close to how didn’t something happen to you on Friday the 13th and you did.

00;00;40;16 – 00;00;50;02
ANDY
You know, it’s in the past, which is where it’s going to stay because, you know, we’re here in the present and that’s why it’s a gift to your staying in the present.

00;00;50;05 – 00;00;50;27
CODY
For good reasons.

00;00;50;27 – 00;00;56;26
ANDY
At home. And it’s been in my basement. In my basement? I don’t know. But what are you going to do?

00;00;56;29 – 00;00;59;23
CODY
Enjoy the fall weather that Michigan has brought to us.

00;00;59;25 – 00;01;08;13
ANDY
Like Frito Pie. I bet you’re going to wear. I bet you’re going to wear it. Let me guess. We guess a black shirt, black jeans.

00;01;08;15 – 00;01;11;20
CODY
Supposedly 44 degrees and raining. So I don’t know. We’ll see.

00;01;11;22 – 00;01;13;00
ANDY
What are you going to do?

00;01;13;03 – 00;01;13;22
CODY
What are you going to do?

00;01;13;23 – 00;01;15;16
ANDY
As harvest gone, by the way? Good.

00;01;15;18 – 00;01;33;07
CODY
I mean, if it would stop raining, I think it’d be going a lot better for people. But everybody that I talk to has better corn than we thought we’d have because of the drought in June. When we got to that point, everybody was super nervous what was going to happen to the crop. I’d say 95% of the people that I talked to have had better corn this year than they did last year, from what they’re telling me.

00;01;33;12 – 00;01;38;01
ANDY
Okay, so how it’s going in the year and it’s one area.

00;01;38;03 – 00;01;48;03
CODY
I got to go up there tomorrow and help out so far. But before we get to that, we have four charts today, all dairy spots.

00;01;48;05 – 00;01;51;22
ANDY
Really spot all day. Spot markets.

00;01;51;22 – 00;01;53;17
CODY
Let’s go like that one.

00;01;53;19 – 00;02;03;08
ANDY
Like that one. You like this one? This the Black market CMA cheddar BLOCK See me cheddar block When you think you’re boss.

00;02;03;11 – 00;02;15;20
CODY
I mean, they down with that dollar 70 mark where you draw that line from last time. I mean, give or take a little bit when we haven’t had that much movement on the block this week, right? I mean, I don’t know if we’ve moved hardly at all.

00;02;15;22 – 00;02;34;27
ANDY
Yeah. I mean we really have haven’t. Right. And so I guess what sticks out to me is that you have this like if you omit this because we broke and came back relatively quickly and you look at this chart, right? I mean, I know it’s a weekly, but we keep bumping up against like this downward trend. One, two, three, four, five times.

00;02;35;05 – 00;02;36;07
ANDY
That’s a lot.

00;02;36;10 – 00;02;36;23
CODY
Yep.

00;02;36;26 – 00;02;53;24
ANDY
So what could I mean, what could be interesting here is if, you know, there’s there’s been some talk about, you know, blocks being a little bit more plentiful, potentially coming back to the exchange, etc.. Right. So if if we start to see that come to the exchange here we are around 70. Do we put in do we go test this former low?

00;02;53;26 – 00;02;58;20
ANDY
I don’t I don’t think so. Right here it seems like a stretch. Dollars 30. What do you think?

00;02;58;26 – 00;03;07;15
CODY
Well, I think a dollar 30 would be a little bit of a stretch. But if that gap at a dollar 43, maybe not so much of a stretch. Right.

00;03;07;18 – 00;03;24;14
ANDY
Okay. Either way. Either way, I think what you end up seeing is a failure to put in a new low. Right. We’re going to test it like like I don’t think we go down and test a dollar 30. I think they can chip away at the block here a little bit. But I think what we have seen is basically a higher low.

00;03;24;16 – 00;03;25;10
ANDY
Again, ready to do it.

00;03;25;15 – 00;03;26;14
CODY
Chart sure looks like we.

00;03;26;14 – 00;03;44;26
ANDY
Are we getting ready to do it? What if we did that? You know, what if domestic demand is pretty good here? There are other options, but what is it, Early Friday, the 13th, tomorrow. Sorry. What is the, you know, Super Bowl holiday stuffs pizza for football, all that stuff. It’s like not bad. Right. And we’re just going to hover around the dollar 65.

00;03;44;26 – 00;04;00;23
ANDY
Like I said, I just feel like they could take the block down a little bit here. I just don’t think we’re going to go testing this stuff. Right. Doing 150 and 130 here. I mean, you’re you’re kind of eyeball on this gap, but for the most part, I think we can all agree that this low is not going to necessarily be tested.

00;04;00;25 – 00;04;24;19
ANDY
But so if that’s the case, technically, then you see a higher low and that that type of formation, you go and let’s say you go retest this, this this line here, this this downward trend that’s been in place since April 2022, that would be a significant breakout. And if you’re going to do that, doing it on a higher low like that, that’s like technically significant.

00;04;24;19 – 00;04;24;28
ANDY
Right.

00;04;25;05 – 00;04;29;21
CODY
But at that point, you’re talking to dollar blocks right now, give or take from where you have that drop.

00;04;29;22 – 00;04;47;08
ANDY
Depends on when it. Yeah, sure. I mean somewhere in there right this this this price is just shy of two bucks if it were to do it kind of in this area and also depends on when it happens. Right. The longer this persists, this just keeps going lower and lower, right? Yeah. So this is more like a dollar 92 over here or this is two bucks.

00;04;47;10 – 00;05;04;13
ANDY
So, yeah, I mean, that’s what it feels like to me where the chip, where the block a little bit more, we start to maybe get some export business, but and then we walk into 2024 with a little bit less milk on hand. Then we go test this again. I just think a breakout here. I think a breakout of this downward trend would be pretty significant.

00;05;04;13 – 00;05;04;27
ANDY
The market.

00;05;05;02 – 00;05;05;20
CODY
I agree.

00;05;05;23 – 00;05;11;01
ANDY
So something to be mindful of, something to be mindful of. I don’t know which one you want to do.

00;05;11;01 – 00;05;14;21
CODY
Next one is roll right down the the strip there.

00;05;14;24 – 00;05;19;15
ANDY
Roll right down the script. Why? I’ll tell you why. Here’s why.

00;05;19;18 – 00;05;21;28
CODY
No driveway.

00;05;22;00 – 00;05;23;14
ANDY
Well, it’s good.

00;05;23;16 – 00;05;24;05
CODY
It looks good.

00;05;24;05 – 00;05;28;01
ANDY
I like way I think I think way It’s got some potential here to get going.

00;05;28;04 – 00;05;29;20
CODY
What did we trade today? 21 loads.

00;05;29;27 – 00;05;32;06
ANDY
Traded quite a bit of way.

00;05;32;08 – 00;05;34;02
CODY
Is there a break out of the downward?

00;05;34;02 – 00;05;49;28
ANDY
It sure looks like one, Richard, to Richard now. I mean you built a nice base here, right? And we’ve seen a ton of volume change hands here. I mean, how many are illustrated today? It’s close to 20.

00;05;50;00 – 00;05;52;13
CODY
I honestly think there’s 20. Well.

00;05;52;16 – 00;06;13;10
ANDY
I mean, it was it’s getting to that point. Right. And so we got we were and if you look at some of the secondary stuff to oversold back when we got down into here. Right right here and you know it’s since came back that’s a buy signal or at least a confirmation that or excuse me like that is there’s a bullish confirmation right there when we get into oversold and come back out.

00;06;13;13 – 00;06;21;17
ANDY
Now, you’ve broken out of this trend and if we settle here, this will be the highest weekly settle that we’ve seen and say.

00;06;21;22 – 00;06;22;11
CODY
Again into May.

00;06;22;11 – 00;06;24;12
ANDY
Yeah, yeah.

00;06;24;14 – 00;06;36;11
CODY
Here. This is my question. Here is my question to you. With this bullish confirmation, do you think we go back to that 45 cent number where we chopped around from July to April ish?

00;06;36;19 – 00;07;00;18
ANDY
I do, yeah. I think that’s I think this all this noise is where we’re going to go all this junk and just go trade in this range. Right. Because like here’s so here this little dog right here, this little guy really blows up where Bam, right there. So we’re we’re back over that price like this. This area that was once that it was support became resistance.

00;07;00;21 – 00;07;19;05
ANDY
It’s now it feels like it wants to be support again. But the market doesn’t like to sit still at this price. Right. When it crossed here, it was promptly on its way down to $0.22. So I think you got to be really mindful of that and to say like, again, we’re going a ton of volume changing hands. The momentum has shifted into being positive.

00;07;19;05 – 00;07;41;29
ANDY
You were in oversold territory. That’s no longer the case and you’re climbing up out of that and you’ve broken what looks like a very big major trend. So a settlement, let’s say tomorrow we settle on, we have to go up to the edge. It’ll be a higher settle since early May. And if we got an open higher the next week, you get a confirmation of that settlement and breakout of this downward trend.

00;07;41;29 – 00;07;50;11
ANDY
I think when you go back and all this junk right here, all this noise, nothing, it becomes magnet. So what is like the mid mid-year 45 ish? We saw 45.

00;07;50;15 – 00;07;53;25
CODY
What, you’re talking $0.10 on way ten. $0.12.

00;07;53;27 – 00;08;11;08
ANDY
Yeah. And from a cluster basis, what’s ten. Let’s just ten times six. $0.06 a pound or excuse me $0.06 in class three is $0.01 a pound equivalent. That right. Yeah. $0.10 away. That’s $0.60 in class three. I mean you go from 30, 30 low thirties to mid-to-high forties, you’re going to tack on quite a bit to class three.

00;08;11;08 – 00;08;32;21
ANDY
It’s not small. Right. And like the market for a while here has just been in this low end, it’s almost like it has been, I would say immaterial, but it hasn’t have as much relevance. But you don’t like, I guess, just thinking about it, but you don’t need to move cash at all, like the cash GS market at 60, potentially at 60 $0.70 on the current cash number four for Class three.

00;08;32;27 – 00;08;47;04
ANDY
That’s really I mean, I think this can be kind of a sneaky chart here that that of Class three sneaks up on people sneak attack This one I think is really interesting This one I think can get a little bit explosive, especially with all the volume that we’ve been seeing and how many bidders were there today, By the way.

00;08;47;06 – 00;08;51;08
CODY
A lot. We had a lot. I mean, there was there was definite. What do we have? More than eight there?

00;08;51;10 – 00;09;09;12
ANDY
Like you had to scroll down right here on the see me direct auction to actually see all the bidding. So yeah, I think we’re getting ready to see what we’ve seen it in season four, right. Where like earlier this year the barrel traded a boatload at price within a relatively tight range. And then then we take off on no volume.

00;09;09;16 – 00;09;25;01
ANDY
I think we’re going to see that in way here. So let’s go way here’s a one that also looks a little bit perky. This is about an outside and correct me if I’m wrong, I think what is it, the back of the envelope math is that if you take the precedence out divided by three, you get the price of way.

00;09;25;03 – 00;09;36;19
ANDY
I think that’s true. Yes. So if that’s true than 122 knots, I can’t do that. Asking you from 22 divided by three is 40.666 repeating there.

00;09;36;22 – 00;09;37;00
CODY
Yeah.

00;09;37;05 – 00;09;55;16
ANDY
So here that I like this one. The one I want to point out here was this yellow line. It’s more like orange, kind of like a pumpkin color says pumpkin one present. By the way, are you going to carve Are you going to carve pumpkin? Put it on your porch. By the way, I am. I decorate this year.

00;09;55;16 – 00;09;57;19
CODY
What I’m going to this weekend.

00;09;57;21 – 00;09;59;14
ANDY
Decorate your house. Come on.

00;09;59;16 – 00;10;01;11
CODY
Let me get excited.

00;10;01;14 – 00;10;09;15
ANDY
For the kids. What’s your what’s your pumpkin face going to be? By the way, when you carve one? I usually ones. Do you like the not scary ones.

00;10;09;17 – 00;10;12;18
CODY
Probably not scary. We want to be very nice to everybody in the neighborhood.

00;10;12;18 – 00;10;24;04
ANDY
So there’s this whole like we again, by the way, like the editorial, we like, you know, we the editorial we I like.

00;10;24;06 – 00;10;29;05
CODY
We signify as a team. It’s not just I it’s we it’s a very nice way.

00;10;29;05 – 00;10;31;13
ANDY
Of didn’t understand that movie reference at all that you.

00;10;31;15 – 00;10;31;24
CODY
Know.

00;10;31;26 – 00;10;59;09
ANDY
We buy the royal we you know the editorial and forget it. All right so we closed our this pumpkin one here, which is the 50 the simple it’s a simple moving average. The last 50 periods, right. In this case, weeks. So it’s it’s I think that’s significant. You see some some of these moving averages, especially for like some of the bigger products like S&P 500, like it becomes kind of like a magnet.

00;10;59;09 – 00;11;17;03
ANDY
Right. 200 day moving average, 50 day moving average. I think it’s it’s interesting that we close if we can settle here today or tomorrow, we don’t have to go up, just need to settle this price. Then we will have closed over this moving average for the first time since July of 22. I think that is technically significant there.

00;11;17;05 – 00;11;30;02
ANDY
And then I think what that will lead to is us heading into this 130 number, which is kind of a are already telling us we’re going to go out forward. So not that looks like it’s got some room to go.

00;11;30;04 – 00;11;33;13
CODY
Can you call that a double bottom?

00;11;33;16 – 00;11;36;09
ANDY
It feels like one, Richard. Right.

00;11;36;11 – 00;11;43;14
CODY
I mean, I know there’s going to be some people that say there is no such thing, kind of like the double top that you look back into 20, 22.

00;11;43;16 – 00;11;49;07
ANDY
I think. I mean, I think you could certainly argue double tops and bottoms exists. I think it’s a triple top and bottom. So people say don’t exist.

00;11;49;10 – 00;11;50;13
CODY
Okay.

00;11;50;16 – 00;12;08;06
ANDY
But to your point, double top here, Dan, I think, do we retrace all this? I don’t know about that. But like a 30% track, I mean, like that, a dollar 40 that takes us back just and that’s just a third of it. Just a small amount, small portion, but a relatively small retracement of this big.

00;12;08;08 – 00;12;13;25
CODY
And if the math is correct on the nonfat two way ratio, it reads dry away.

00;12;14;02 – 00;12;20;29
ANDY
$0.48. Okay. So let’s just hold price for everybody. Ten people back to the top end of all this junk, all this noise.

00;12;21;06 – 00;12;22;16
CODY
Right? Exactly.

00;12;22;19 – 00;12;25;06
ANDY
That feels like we’re going there, so let’s go there.

00;12;25;08 – 00;12;26;17
CODY
We just figured something out.

00;12;26;19 – 00;12;41;28
ANDY
We just you know what? Usually we should make, like, a way to get that. I’m just surprised I did not peg you for, like, a nice pumpkin face. Like I thought you would have been like you know, scary. You’ve been, like, you turn it over a new leaf.

00;12;42;00 – 00;12;43;27
CODY
Turn over new leaf in life.

00;12;43;29 – 00;12;52;25
ANDY
Okay, Well, I mean, just put them out. I’ve seen you picture most of my decorations. Get some decorations going on. Yes. Well, speaking of yes.

00;12;52;28 – 00;12;53;11
CODY
Last but not.

00;12;53;12 – 00;13;11;22
ANDY
Least, yikes. This one looking for Halloween. What’s interesting is so typically when you look at like this gap became a big, pretty big magnet. Right. And this is one of the gaps. I remember we talked a little bit about, but it already got filled by all this is I think it’s tough to look at this one. But I think what’s that said?

00;13;11;24 – 00;13;33;02
ANDY
What about this guy right there? You know that one? I think what we’re about to see here is basically, you know, so this candle settled at 350. This is a monthly, right. So we still have several weeks. You could you could sell you could basically just retrace this entire move, right as you engulfed this candle right here and settle it like 290 or something like that.

00;13;33;02 – 00;13;51;17
ANDY
This one settled. This one settle not to nine. Excuse me. So this is a 370 settle. This is a 330 settle. Let’s say you settled at, I don’t know, 329 or something. Like you actually breached this candle and engulfed this one. I think this turns into it what have you. You called it like it’s instead of a V bottom.

00;13;51;17 – 00;13;55;08
ANDY
Was this the inverse of that got like a house or something.

00;13;55;11 – 00;13;57;10
CODY
Yeah. No, the called it the peak last time. Right.

00;13;57;15 – 00;14;04;16
ANDY
A peak. A roof. Stability a frame gives you a rooftop. You say roofs or roof.

00;14;04;19 – 00;14;06;00
CODY
Roof, rooftop.

00;14;06;03 – 00;14;07;26
ANDY
Roof anywhere that happens.

00;14;07;26 – 00;14;12;00
CODY
And we go back down to $3 with this turn into a cup and handle.

00;14;12;03 – 00;14;16;21
ANDY
It could that’s that could be that one. See, that would be pretty nice. If we came.

00;14;16;21 – 00;14;19;02
CODY
All the way back down there. Would that be the formation?

00;14;19;04 – 00;14;28;18
ANDY
It could. I need to. I don’t. We got to figure that out. But I don’t want to say that just yet because I think you get to go fill that gap and it can turn into a bit of a free fall.

00;14;28;21 – 00;14;38;19
CODY
All right. So we are going to do a little research on the cup and handle see what the next couple weeks brings us, at least in the next step, talk next week and kind of go from there on this one on butter.

00;14;38;19 – 00;14;44;18
ANDY
That’s sure. Sounds good. In the meantime, please. It done has decorated some.

00;14;44;21 – 00;14;45;04
CODY
Sacred.

00;14;45;07 – 00;14;48;13
ANDY
Space. Just say say Friday the 13th.

00;14;48;15 – 00;14;48;28
CODY
That’s right.

00;14;49;03 – 00;14;50;15
ANDY
Don’t do.

00;14;50;17 – 00;15;06;09
CODY
That. Yeah, they’ll do it and do it on the Friday the 13th. Everybody might go there. It’s in the past, but we appreciate everybody watching. We had no one right in for any requests this time. You guys have any for next week, please let us know. Have a fantastic weekend. Be safe, be smart, have a great week. We’ll talk to you next time.

00;15;06;14 – 00;15;06;26
ANDY
See ya.

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