In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss the peso, Nov feeders, crude oil, and monthly butter.
Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.
Charts sourced from Ever.Ag Platform.
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VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and it’s not suitable for all. Investor contact provided in the statement is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
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CODY
Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody. He is Andy. It is September 28th, 2023 430 in the Eastern Time, 330 Chicago time. Andy, how you doing?
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ANDY
Good. Are you.
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CODY
Doing well? Doing very well.
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ANDY
We actually just see that our cat just walk across the thing.
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CODY
So it a little background noise going on there.
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ANDY
A little background kitty cats we actually think you or do you have a cat do you care.
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CODY
I don’t have any animals.
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ANDY
You don’t any animals? Not none. So we only have like two forks and like one spoon or something like that. But do you have like a cat dish at least, like, no, I don’t like dogs.
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CODY
I don’t like things with hair. All right.
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ANDY
You can get like one of those, like, Austin Power style cats where it’s like, over here and, like.
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CODY
Those are weird, too. Can do it.
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ANDY
Can’t do it, Harry, of facial hair.
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CODY
Well, I got so.
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ANDY
Embarrassed.
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CODY
Right? That’s what I want to see. We’ve got a.
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ANDY
Line.
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CODY
For shirts that came in by request today.
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ANDY
Or count.
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CODY
For all four of them by people that want to see.
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ANDY
All requests. Which one we started was.
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CODY
The all pay. So this one comes from Erica from the Insights team.
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ANDY
I think they call it the old peso, by the way, said thank you for the request, the old peso peso, the all peso. What do you think here, boss them?
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CODY
I don’t want to get too bullish on the peso, but.
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ANDY
Do.
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CODY
Bullish. What does that formation look like?
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ANDY
Hang on. Let me start.
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CODY
From it looks like aw4. We’re going higher.
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ANDY
I two, W four. We’re going higher. Look, I would agree. I mean, I would agree. And what’s interesting is that you’ve got so you took a shot at getting in the new lows basically yesterday or pretty close and then if it opens higher tomorrow you have an inside day out right. Yeah. And then you got this guys down here to me, this guy right there.
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ANDY
So let me just get my cursor out. Whole place them. So the secondary one down here, RSI tried to get down into a new low, didn’t do it. And same thing with momentum, right. It’s stop and shirt right where I started to really pivot from last time. So that would imply strength. So I think probably take a shot at noting it and know that you’re wrong and can easily get out.
00;02;37;24 – 00;02;48;09
ANDY
I mean, not easily, but I mean like there’s the risk reward here seems to be much better to the upside, to the like with respect to like, you know, you’re wrong if we trade or close below this low of what, 55.
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CODY
35. Yeah.
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ANDY
Which is fine.
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CODY
It couldn’t, it couldn’t do last time at the beginning of the month either.
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ANDY
So are you buying it though.
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CODY
I would buy the peso.
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ANDY
Nirbhaya got it. So if you look at like the I mean the dollar is going to look basically at the inverse of it. But today you had an inside out. It could be down if we closed lower, asking the open lower tomorrow. Some currencies are not look so like pesos are looking pretty good 6 a.m. I’d look it up in secondary so it’s looking like pretty decent I think take a shot at owning it if it starts to go I target like 58 Rebecca.
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CODY
So are you a buyer of the peso?
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ANDY
I think yeah. I think I’ll take a shot at.
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CODY
Doing it.
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ANDY
Again. The risk reward. Like I think the risk reward is there, right? Meaning you go from 56 to 58 and know that if we go below 75, 30 ish, you know, this low, you know, you probably want to get out this call today. All right. So, yeah, pick up, you know, put a few pesos in your pocket, buy a cat with it.
00;03;56;07 – 00;04;00;25
ANDY
There you go. Thanks for the ask, Erika. Appreciate your comment. This one came from Mr. Matt.
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CODY
Mr. Matt.
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ANDY
Mr. Matt. Another internal request. Seizures have just been so like, what’s that movie was like? Hansel And like, Hansel so hot right now. Theaters are so hot right now. So movie what’s out?
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CODY
Blades of Glory.
00;04;19;17 – 00;04;36;20
ANDY
Not Napoleon, not Blaze of Glory. He’s a mailman is the model is Ben Stiller is because he’s a model We’ll think of it later. Zoolander. Zoolander. Yeah. Well, yeah. There you go.
00;04;36;20 – 00;04;41;21
CODY
Yeah, I they draw that one at us. Hats off. So hot right now. Absolutely.
00;04;41;21 – 00;05;05;23
ANDY
It’s so hot right now. I mean, like, I feel like this market is going to continue to be on tilt, meaning like the first, like whiff of bearishness. You’re just going to roll over and see days like like, what was this? This was this was this is today’s candle. This is yesterday. And then this is Tuesday, right? So but the thing is, is that every time we’ve seen this type of price action where you start to just take a breather, it’s always been a buying opportunity.
00;05;05;26 – 00;05;11;10
CODY
Yeah, we don’t have the RSI. Last time we kind of did down here was in middle of June and middle of June.
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ANDY
That’s right.
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CODY
Right after that we rallied into new highs at that time and then kind of continue to our upward trend there.
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ANDY
Now. Now, I mean, like I think we have this long term trend that’s been drawn. I think until this breaks through and you get you close through it open and then open lower after that, I think that’s going to be the one that really becomes the knell. Until then, I think it’d be really careful getting too short here.
00;05;36;10 – 00;05;54;27
ANDY
I mean, it’s fundamentally we keep hearing things are strong like bull right now. So there’s plenty of research, too, that comes out of every, by the way, that well, that you can go take a look see at that. But yeah, no, I mean, like today you basically it’s it’s almost like it’s getting ready to the bottom this this this break right here.
00;05;54;29 – 00;06;13;02
ANDY
So you have be super careful that I think it’s hard to get short until you break the long term trend. The trend has been so strong and steady you’re not seeing like ridiculous price action on the upside. Right now, like multiple limit days in a row or something like that where it’s unsustainable. It’s just been a very steady trend.
00;06;13;05 – 00;06;24;02
ANDY
So today’s close looks like it wants to potentially be bottom this this again. So then the question is, do we put it in new highs? Right. That could be like the first real sign of weakness.
00;06;24;04 – 00;06;24;28
CODY
And I think the failure.
00;06;24;28 – 00;06;25;26
ANDY
To go for the new high.
00;06;26;03 – 00;06;40;00
CODY
The other indicator there that you have and I have on mind is the 50 day moving average. Okay. We’ve closed below there once, twice. And after that headed back into new highs after that move. Yeah.
00;06;40;03 – 00;06;43;09
ANDY
Right here. Yeah. Now yeah it’s good point.
00;06;43;16 – 00;06;54;07
CODY
I mean not right away but subsequently afterwards, even right in the middle of August there, we touched it and then went back to new highs and kept our trend kind of rock and roll in there.
00;06;54;09 – 00;07;14;13
ANDY
Yeah. Yeah. That was I mean I think everybody’s kind of looking around saying, when is this going to be done right? Because if you look at it like a monthly, you know, you go and look at it when the Quarterly all these charts, I know they’re continuous, but like they’re all just been so strong. Yes. So it’s this question of what’s is going to roll over right.
00;07;14;19 – 00;07;23;13
ANDY
I think you need to see a big break of the major trend before you wanna sell with both hands. And if that were to happen, I think the next stop would be this 200 day.
00;07;23;16 – 00;07;25;00
CODY
It’s always down there.
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ANDY
It is always down there. The VIX. Mr. Matt.
00;07;28;12 – 00;07;29;27
CODY
Thank you.
00;07;29;29 – 00;07;36;15
ANDY
Next one, crude crude oil. We have no idea. Somebody requested this. We know that.
00;07;36;18 – 00;07;37;25
CODY
Can’t remember who.
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ANDY
I can’t remember who. It’s a mystery. So to whomever the parties involved that requested this, Thank you for the request. If you could comment below, just tell us who you are. Even if it’s like your fun name that we give people like Loose cannon, for example. One of my favorite names, by the way. Absolutely. It was loose cannon.
00;07;56;19 – 00;07;59;03
ANDY
Can you just tell us? But anyways, what do you think?
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CODY
Your boss you better fill your gas tank up right now.
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ANDY
You think that so we’re going up.
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CODY
Right? I do believe so. I do believe.
00;08;07;23 – 00;08;08;29
ANDY
What makes it What makes you think that?
00;08;09;03 – 00;08;27;00
CODY
Well, I mean, look at the look at the big candle that we had yesterday. Kind of pushed its way to $100 a barrel. Obviously broke pretty hard today, but did not encompass the whole chart. There. So it is a long term trend that you have drawn through.
00;08;27;02 – 00;08;36;24
ANDY
So let’s go take a quick peek at the weekly. Yeah. So we didn’t touch this, but we I think you and I did this last time, right? So we had the Elliott wave.
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CODY
Yes.
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ANDY
It’s still riding that wave.
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CODY
And you’ve only got three drawn, right. Three, three waves of the five wave theory.
00;08;46;05 – 00;09;04;21
ANDY
Correct. Correct. So this would imply you could probably take this guy. Let’s say we stop there and then you want to take this guy and lay it right on there. So you’re talking about just over just over 110 bucks. So, I mean, I’m not going to disagree with you. Right? I mean, to your point, it’s not like it’s not showing a big sign of weakness here.
00;09;04;23 – 00;09;30;28
ANDY
This is the VS contract daily. Here we go. That it’s not showing a big sign of weakness here. I mean, it’s it’s it’s doing exactly what you would expect if it’s going to move like in the five waves. But this is really interesting too. I mean you had this hammer followed up here. I mean, what could be what I feel like could end up happening here as you get a candle like this tomorrow or it’s engulfs this guy, just like he’d say, boom up.
00;09;31;00 – 00;09;32;19
CODY
Testing 95.
00;09;32;21 – 00;09;59;08
ANDY
Test. That’s right. So yeah, I mean, you would expect. Yeah, I mean, just like you want to be careful of the measurement of the fourth wave, but it looks like it wants to just continue on that pattern. So more upside in a nice steady trend like seeders. It’s kind of expensive to go to the store and like to get to like fill up your gas tank and then go get like a burger or something like that.
00;09;59;09 – 00;10;03;25
ANDY
Go get some ground beef to like, go do some. Well, you don’t have a girl anyway, so what difference does it make?
00;10;04;00 – 00;10;04;24
CODY
Does it matter to me?
00;10;05;01 – 00;10;07;28
ANDY
Like, are you doing that like on a pan? Like, how do you make burgers at home?
00;10;08;00 – 00;10;10;10
CODY
Yeah, exactly. Skillet, a pan.
00;10;10;15 – 00;10;12;20
ANDY
Skillet foreman like George Foreman.
00;10;12;23 – 00;10;21;23
CODY
I’ve got a I’ve got a cast iron skillet. Also, I wash my cast iron skillet in the dishwasher. Now, I don’t. They say you’re not supposed to and I don’t care.
00;10;21;25 – 00;10;23;15
ANDY
It’s just breaking all the rules.
00;10;23;15 – 00;10;32;00
CODY
I season that right afterwards. And you know what? It tastes fine. So all the people that can hate on washing cast iron skillet with soap doesn’t matter.
00;10;32;02 – 00;10;33;08
ANDY
Oh okay.
00;10;33;11 – 00;10;35;10
CODY
Well sorry I got a little, little testy there.
00;10;35;17 – 00;10;38;17
ANDY
That’s okay. I mean, like, you know what? Everybody’s got their own thing.
00;10;38;19 – 00;10;42;13
CODY
Somebody told me you couldn’t do that. And so I did a couple of them wrong, and I proved them wrong.
00;10;42;15 – 00;10;45;24
ANDY
There you go. See, like the null hypothesis.
00;10;45;27 – 00;10;46;23
CODY
The drag.
00;10;46;26 – 00;10;55;22
ANDY
Coefficient is null hypothesis, but the button of the cast iron in the dishwasher. There you go. Well, statistical is the testicle analysis for the null hypothesis.
00;10;55;26 – 00;10;59;06
CODY
They said you can’t do that. And I said, Oh yeah, watch me poop, watch me.
00;10;59;12 – 00;11;06;07
ANDY
So I guess the next step is to get some plates or no cups or something like that. A fork, maybe that will work.
00;11;06;07 – 00;11;08;14
CODY
On it with your bare hands, you.
00;11;08;16 – 00;11;27;29
ANDY
Know, they want that. Fair enough. Last one. It’s like, so this this comes at request, not by anybody in particular, but by basically everybody. We’ve had several people reach out about this one, so we can’t say this comes from any one one particular person, just this is something that’s been in the forefront. So all time record highs. Look at that.
00;11;28;01 – 00;11;38;14
ANDY
Look at that. So what do you make you’re when you make burgers and your skillet that’s washing the dishwasher. Are you using butter or. Yeah. You didn’t you must have some sort of alternatives.
00;11;38;19 – 00;11;39;16
CODY
You see them with butter.
00;11;39;18 – 00;11;41;03
ANDY
Even at $3.40.
00;11;41;10 – 00;11;48;13
CODY
I mean you might as well go buy it Now before we go a little bit higher so you can store it in the freezer and get ready for another day. Yes.
00;11;48;15 – 00;12;07;15
ANDY
Well, what was interesting today was that like I think it was the November futures or stock price in October. Right. So no trade, quite a bit of volume, a decent amount of volume. But 42 cars offered at $0.10 lower. Yeah, right. And like a lot of that volume was trading before cash. It took cash up, if I’m not mistaken.
00;12;07;15 – 00;12;26;17
ANDY
Yep. Up three and a half cents. And like the nose contracts, it kind of perked up a little bit during cash and then right back down and offer it at limit. I think $0.10 is limit right to 90. Previous to 90 is okay. So it’s offered at ten lower. It’s just it’s interesting to see that kind of trade.
00;12;26;21 – 00;12;45;28
ANDY
Right. Right. And so people are definitely saying that this discount for like building in the discount regardless of what’s going on with cash. And then if you go and look at so let’s go back process go back to monthly like the last couple times of this actually represents a September closed at 314 and a half this is a separate last year October properly growth.
00;12;46;00 – 00;12;54;12
ANDY
This was a little bit later but we never actually got a close. I don’t know if you can use like these two, though, because we never got to close over three bucks.
00;12;54;12 – 00;12;55;05
CODY
Right?
00;12;55;07 – 00;13;22;06
ANDY
So this month we had a high of 314 before coming back down to 51 than March and still snap up back up to close to three bucks, but to no avail and then promptly fell apart. But these all seem to show kind of the same tell the same story that as you get to the latter part of the quarter or the latter part of the year, excuse me, really October that either way, like the butter price towards the end of the year typically sees more weakness.
00;13;22;09 – 00;13;48;11
ANDY
And I mean, that makes sense to like seasonally, you know, we’re like you’ve already bought all your butter cookies and stuff like that for Christmas. You already baked them up. So now what I would expect we’ll see something like this, like this candle right here. This is October’s candle from 2014. This is down. It touches a dollar so high of 289 has settled at 189 or with a loved 170.
00;13;48;11 – 00;14;00;18
CODY
So five not to be a negative Nellie on this one, but if you look at November butter there, we we did fill a gap today but there are a few more down there it to 82, you know what I mean?
00;14;00;20 – 00;14;01;07
ANDY
Yeah.
00;14;01;07 – 00;14;10;07
CODY
And that’s just if you look at October there there there’s gaps all the way. It looks like a michigan roadway where everything is just pieced together, Victor. You know what I mean?
00;14;10;10 – 00;14;28;20
ANDY
This well, you would know better than I would. I owned and I’ve lived in Michigan since I was like a drawer, something like that. And I think I lived on this side of them. And you live on this one, right? So. Correct. And we’ll take your word for it. But yeah no, it’s the great this. I’m glad you bring it up.
00;14;28;20 – 00;14;49;25
ANDY
This is November butter on a daily this looks like it just wants to just completely like you know like we talk about Z bottoms right where you but this is like an inverse of that right. Or just it’s instead of just rips and rips two, three, three or five this open lower here cemented this clothes with like you fill the gap clothes in the low.
00;14;49;27 – 00;14;54;23
ANDY
I mean this is like it wants to go back all this noise right here.
00;14;54;26 – 00;15;00;27
CODY
It’s almost like that chart right there is just giving you every possible look at a bearish turn that it can.
00;15;01;04 – 00;15;13;14
ANDY
Yeah, I like the chart. Definitely this chart in particular, right? Definitely acting like it wants to do an inverse of the p bottom. So I guess like what would you call that, like an A-frame.
00;15;13;16 – 00;15;21;02
CODY
Yeah. Looks like an A-frame. We coined that A-frame idea. Sounds like we just did it. All right.
00;15;21;04 – 00;15;25;25
ANDY
Don’t get that worse. A hammer, by the way. We cement that A-frame hammer.
00;15;25;27 – 00;15;29;28
CODY
This is an A-frame formation. A bearish formation. Yeah.
00;15;30;01 – 00;15;33;00
ANDY
That. Yes, it would technically, because it is the inverse of the rebar.
00;15;33;03 – 00;15;38;00
CODY
All right. Butter is a sell, according to Andy and myself and yourself.
00;15;38;04 – 00;15;42;11
ANDY
So, you know, what can we like pause for just one second?
00;15;42;14 – 00;15;45;29
CODY
Boys and girls. Okay, we’re back.
00;15;46;02 – 00;16;05;09
ANDY
I remember Jean and I were playing with this thing yesterday. All right, it’s backwards. Don’t hit that. All right, So no butter If it’s an A-frame. I know you just hit the hammer down, but the Hammer’s bullish. Correct? So if it was a V bottom, you be hammer. Now we’re doing the bazooka. We have to.
00;16;05;09 – 00;16;06;07
CODY
Look at.
00;16;06;09 – 00;16;15;27
ANDY
This pencil. Oh, butter was dismissed. Don’t worry. I got another. I’ve got another round up here.
00;16;15;29 – 00;16;19;22
CODY
So this has got to be the best show on the Internet right now.
00;16;19;22 – 00;16;22;21
ANDY
I need to work on my arm again.
00;16;22;23 – 00;16;23;08
CODY
Awesome.
00;16;23;08 – 00;16;27;04
ANDY
This is pretty slick, though. I mean, it’s got, like, a nice little range to it and, like.
00;16;27;06 – 00;16;28;24
CODY
Thing is nice.
00;16;28;27 – 00;16;30;00
ANDY
Yeah.
00;16;30;03 – 00;16;50;12
CODY
All right, everybody with that, we appreciate you tuning in and we appreciate everybody asking for these charts at Andy Night so diligently. Look at every single day and try to bring you diligently information every week. But until next week, everyone, have a great rest of the week. Friday, great weekend. And if you have any charts you want us to look at, please feel free to let us know.
00;16;50;12 – 00;16;53;00
CODY
And we’d be happy to talk about them.
00;16;53;02 – 00;16;56;16
ANDY
Yeah, and whoever the mystery guest was for the crude, I think it was.
00;16;56;16 – 00;16;56;25
CODY
Yeah.
00;16;57;00 – 00;17;10;19
ANDY
If you could put your name down in there in the comments section below, we sure would appreciate it. Is Cody and I are having a hard time remembering who asked for it. We know somebody asked for it. It’s a mystery, though. Maybe it was Page just Kat typed it out on her.
00;17;10;21 – 00;17;15;08
CODY
It might. All right, everybody, we’ll see you later.
00;17;15;10 – 00;17;16;04
ANDY
See ya.
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