In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss December fat cattle, crude oil, and the 10-year US treasury note.
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(Transcipt auto-generated)
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VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and it’s not suitable for all. Investor contact provided in the strike is meant for educational purposes and is not a.
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Solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
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So I found derivations of brother’s pro BQ barbecue for bro’s only. Yes bro Oasis The local bar café that you like to go to with your bro’s Abro obituary was the announcement of the passing of the celebra pitcher.
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Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody. He is Andy. It is the 8th of February, just about 430 in the afternoon Eastern time, 330 Central. Any I doing?
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I’m well. How are.
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You? 51 degrees here in Michigan beginning of February. Can’t really complain.
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It’s pretty nice. And you say you’re getting a little bit of rain, though. Just a sprinkle.
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Yeah, I just looked outside a certain to certain drizzle a little bit.
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How are you going to have a barbecue this tonight? It’s if it’s raining.
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It’s going to be a tough ask. Hopefully everybody still comes through.
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Yeah. I mean, maybe maybe instead of going outside, you guys can just go to your local bro oasis.
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If it’s raining, we might just have to go inside.
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I just have to go home. I just have to go inside.
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I think so, you know?
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And so should you get some silverware, by the way?
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Well, not offering not go out to eat. It doesn’t really matter. I don’t need it anymore.
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It’s silverware. That’s it. So we don’t need silverware.
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But exciting news for today’s episode. We get three trace requests.
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Three trace, all K-Mart request.
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That’s me. The greed for game speed right there.
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We’re going to get to our 10,000 subscribers here in no time.
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So I’m talking about Bitcoin.
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What do you want to do doing We got these stats, these fans. This came internally from Cole. Thanks, Cole. Appreciate it. You want to look at this. That’s just general opinion. This one’s interesting. I mean, you had this big downtrend that basically, you know, we came out of it and has since been a nice steady uptrend all of a sudden.
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I mean, this seems like a pretty sustainable uptrend considering that it’s just been zero step in itself out. You don’t have this like big unsustainable price action. But I’d say that the one thing that sticks out to me here I guess the most is you’re starting to get somewhat of an ascending triangle. And for those that, you know, just a little bit of a lesson here for what that is an ascending triangle, basically where you have what the point of resistance, that is a horizontal line that we keep bumping up against while continually putting in higher lows.
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Right. And so the market bumps up against it, comes back down, but fails to put in a new low, bumps up against again sales but in the new low And you just kind of you’re coming to the inflection point right here.
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What do we call this before? I think we said it was kind of winding up like a spring, not necessarily this chart, but one that’s happened before.
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Yeah, Yeah. But traditionally, this is a bullish chart. It’s a bullish continuation. Right? So you have the nice uptrend, right? You clearly broke out of this downtrend, solidified it, started to go to see this ascending triangle start to take shape. You could just get another couple of days that are going to look like this. Here are like something like that, right where you just you keep bouncing up against this, you know, this line of resistance, this horizontal line around 189 and a half, and then you get to close above that price and then it’s go time.
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I think that’s what we’re starting to see shape up here. These are these are nice continuation that I think Cole asked about some of the secondary stuff and he’s not wrong. The RSI is definitely starting to tell us things may be getting a little bit overcooked. I’m not sure if you want to hang your hat on this one just yet.
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I think you got to come out of this and really start to trend lower.
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Lower than, say, looking back into November, a buck 90 was There’s a lot of resistance there.
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Yeah, well.
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We formed a gap after closing through that price. And then once again, certainly a point where the market doesn’t like to sit still around 90. So like you said, this is an interesting formation. I don’t think I want to hang my hat on this. RSI getting into overbought and coming back in because it really hasn’t just kind of dial it up here a little bit.
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It really hasn’t solidified like this coming through or going back down because it’s just still bouncing around this area. Right? We’ve seen that happen before where you get like these kind of false breakouts.
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Of those RSI kind of looks like a W formation.
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Today. I think that’s in jeopardy of being that good spot. Yeah, I think this is going to take precedence here. And then if you start to look at some of the longer term stuff too, I mean that doesn’t look bearish.
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Now.
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You know, the weekly here, this is you know, if you look at the Weekly, this RSI tells you that you still have plenty more to go.
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The monthly So tried to reject that sales.
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Premium better.
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But yet this daily, I think you could see another couple of days of consolidation before popping next one Now longtime listener long time caller.
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Friend of the program.
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Friend of the program, longtime friend of the program with skills.
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So why scope Weisskopf So.
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Give it to us.
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And it’s amping.
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Up how I thought your your singer pistols after whiskey assault.
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I think just putting that in there for our effects.
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Everybody wants to see your your singer pistols.
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Yes.
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Are you’re not you don’t do one singer you two. Right. Sounds like the barrel is the index in the middle to.
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This is.
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John Wick style here John of Seville Now.
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John Wesley. All right. Anyway, just want to take a look. This looks pretty good. I don’t want to say.
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I hope it’s good. And we had asked about it. I think we had talked about at least I had mentioned the fact of it looking a little bit bearish because I think there was a point of a bear flag question on the chart. But after today, I don’t think that bear flag is necessarily in the making.
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Yeah.
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I agree. And I’m just drawing this. Each time we’ve tried to break, it’s been a very slow stair step up, meaning like you just continually have these higher lows. I would also argue to that depending on where you want to draw this, right. So if you want to be a little bit more, again, I like to use the opens and closes, but if you want to use the highs and the lows, you know, the weeks I would tell you to, you’ll speak to John Wick, but just be more consistent.
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We’ll use the weeks since you mentioned John Wick Either way. I mean the more conservative approach in this case would be if you’re looking for a bullish indicator, so to speak, greater confirmation, even using these Wicks would tell you that we broke out of this downtrend, tried to come back into it and failed to do so.
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Right. Right.
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I think if we would have done the show yesterday, I would have argued for the fact that it kind of looked like a bear flag just because it did try to test against 74 a few different times and could not do it. And then today, obviously, you get the confirmation of of selling above, what, 76, 76 and half.
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Sure. And like what sticks out to me here is this guy, this guy right there, it’s a small hammer, but it’s a hammer nonetheless. Good point. And then you get the confirmation with the open higher. That’s dangerous right there. Right. It’s easy to say in hindsight, obviously, but that kind of stuff you start to see is a little bit, especially when you’re failing to make a new low once, once here and then again here, and then you get some of the secondary stuff.
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I think this one’s really important actually stochastic here where a fast process slow is usually when the blue basically crosses the red. We saw it here, right? The blue line crossed over the red, the blue line crossing that red is usually what you’re looking for in terms of generating some sort of a signal. In this case, it’s a buy signal, right?
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When the blue line crosses from low to high, basically a little tense, lots of red. And the blue line crosses from what I that’s usually a buy signal. So this has got some room to go. You did it here on the momentum, too, right. So the momentum crossed zero and is now moving away from that zero. And RSI will tell you that there’s room still here before it’s considered over.
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So this looks good. I mean, you got three secondary indicators telling you that this breakout of the downtrend is being confirmed.
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So I’m hearing you correctly, you’re not a seller of crude at this point.
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I would not be a seller of crude at this time.
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Yes.
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I would. Fill your gas tank up. Now, this make it a little bit more expensive.
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Dicey. All right.
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Dicey. I don’t know. We’ll see. But you know what’s go sell. We certainly appreciate the request. Still on our office. Anybody else encoded that gives Cody a chance to do his finger business. So you don’t really get that many opportunities.
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Here.
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Every time.
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I feel like every time, Phil for now and has a request, it just it begs the the.
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Head of the bill. Well, here’s what we’ve been watching.
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Of course, it’s exciting, but here’s like, here’s what’s going to really blow your mind. What’s going to happen when Wisconsin comes on the show? Are you going to be like.
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That’s how we have 10,000 subscribers. We have people like that on the show that make it better. Yes, that’s how we get their driving force.
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Anyways, this one came from Iowa. Dan ran the first time requests from Iowa. Daniel played up the last.
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All right.
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And I would end tenure.
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And so you might have to explain this because I even had to ask.
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For it myself. There’s a lot of discussion really about like interest rates. Yeah, for a while. I mean, you know, money was pretty close to free. But I guess let’s talk about it from a sense of like your home dairy, right? Yeah. Operating lines. You know, they’re not fixed, obviously, right? I mean, you can speak that way better than I can.
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What has increasing interest rates done to the average dairy farmer?
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Even if you look back since right before COVID, you had a lot lower interest rate. And now in some places, depending on who you talk to, they’ve darn near tripled right. Kind of like the housing market where you can get a 3.2% interest rate in 2017 and 18. And now folks are staring down 8.5, 8.7%, depending on where you are and what you’re lending against.
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But those are some some massive jumps and massive numbers.
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Right. And so, you know, obviously that plays a significant role in that. Let’s just in dairy, what I mean in every right. So whatever rates are doing and this is a nice way to look at that you can look at the 30 year to right. If you wanted to scale me, do that real fast. I mean that’s the 30 year, right?
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But so at a ten year old house, this is a tough one because, you know, you could certainly argue. So I go back to the daily real fast. You could certainly argue that this moves right here. I’m just I’m just kind of a general line here is like a ways to.
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You’re looking at a longer term.
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Yes.
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Okay.
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But then you’ve gotten to a point where some of this like this stochastic at least, is a little bit oversold. But like the idea being that we went from 1 to 6 basically to 113 and over that the same timeframe. But this has been a very sluggish retracement. I only want to call it. You’re not really giving a whole lot back.
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So and then when if you look at like just sort of seven axes of it, it’s basically retraced about a third of that rally.
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Correct.
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So I think what would be a surprise to the market, maybe I’m not by any means an expert on interest rates, but I am asking you about the farm rate stuff because I don’t.
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Tend to reach the higher, if I’m understanding it correctly, the higher that we go on this chart, the more interest rates increase then.
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I mean, that’s this should be what is this chart going to continue moving higher? And I understand that we’ve had a bit of a setback, but if you look at just a general trend of it, it has been up. And I think that is the concern of this of this chart potentially doing that.
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Well, that’s right. I think if you’re talking about the second wave of a five wave Elliott theory here, that’s what makes me nervous or just talking through it real quick. If we’re at 8.5, 8%, let’s call it what is the fifth wave take us to.
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Well, 12 and.
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15, I don’t know. But if you were to make the argument that this is in fact what we’re seeing, you take this ad like call it 20%, because, again, remember, the third race is usually the biggest. Right. And let’s just we can just add it back on to here. I don’t see why that’s not possible. Right? Yeah, This is not that much of a retracement relative to this move.
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This is a nice, healthy uptrend and seen a slight retracement if it were to break out to the upside. I mean, you want to at least break that. You want to be a little more conservative with it. I mean, a new high would be coming in a clear breakout, right? So 113 some change.
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Okay.
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So either way, I mean, obviously for a long time, rates were not something that people really talk about because they were. Just to your point, static. Correct. But now they’re starting to I mean, I ask it from like the ag lending, you know, what is cost, dairy and how is that impacted that business? You know what I mean?
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Like, it’s becoming something that’s more of a line on your land. Right? Right. And if we start looking at it longer term, I think this right here is really interesting because you had this pretty long term support. This is a weekly that got broken and then came right back like, is this a bear trap right here?
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Right.
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If so, you make the argument that we got to go back and, you know, go test this number. Now you start talking about, well, why couldn’t we do something like this where you start talking about, like, you know, getting back into all this noise? I think that these two right here are entirely possible to go retrace some of that, the way this chart looks.
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And I think you’re starting to see the makings of somewhat of a bear trap. Right. Broke this major support and came right back into it or came right back over it. So you think about like the psychology of it, some of this, you know, if you’re a seller in here, this is a longer term chart, obviously. Right. Right.
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But if you’re a seller in here, you know, underwater after a significant break, you sell it after a significant break, breaks major support and then comes right back out of it. That’s not something that I’d want to be staying short into. Right. Right. So I think another thing to be mindful of, too, is this chart. If we see again, you had a major downtrend that seems to have been broken and you had the first sign of like this support being tested, tried to break through and failed to do so.
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So coming back out of that link, maybe the next step potentially is, if anything, you could see somewhat of a consolidation. A consolidation would take us back number. We looked at just where we’re looking at right now, the highs of that move. So if we start to get a consolidation after a big move to see consolidation is usually like processing a retracement of that moves preceding it makes sense.
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Yeah, I think a really good example of that is cause you had this big break, this consolidated for a long time. Now I think this is this was it is this right? But you had this big break. You have a consolidation and an extended consolidation usually leads to the preceding move retrace entirely. So I think we’re getting ready to see something similar.
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This weekly chart, big break, consolidate, come back up. I think that would be a big surprise. The market will see.
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So lots of.
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Results. First time I think looking at ten year and I would put it in a request.
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To show that.
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This is there’s a lot to of in on this term.
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There’s certainly a lot to take in this chart for sure.
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There’s a lot.
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You might want to go get your rates locked in. You might want to go get your gas pumps. You might want to go get your burgers bought to.
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Buy the burger, buy.
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Burgers. I don’t know, cause you’re doing your Brubaker tonight.
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Got to give.
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Me some money.
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You want to go get your base? You know how much more expensive that’s going to be at your local oasis?
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So I have to say fast or get up sort of tech talk. Today, I was he.
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Was issued all requests.
00;15;24;07 – 00;15;42;07
I know. We appreciate your insights. We got a big shout out to Dan Phil in Coal. We appreciate everybody tuning in. We appreciate those three for sending us charts. Still trying to get to our 10,000 subscribers by the end of the year. If we do, I was promised that we will get a pizza party for the company. So we are very excited about that.
00;15;42;09 – 00;15;50;20
So if you could be a friend, tell a friend, subscribe to the channel, send it to all your buddies and it’s all next time. Next week. Have a very safe and happy weekend.
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Raising my hand and have a question.
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so I blanked out. I didn’t. I really couldn’t see you raise your hand all of a sudden in my head.
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Raising my hand.
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It was just.
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Nice seeing your hand in front of your face. I’m like, Well, I thought you were pointing to something on your thumb.
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That’s tell you, though. Speaking of that, I was born in Michigan. I was born…
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