Tech Talk – Fatherly Advice – February 15, 2024

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00;00;00;21 – 00;00;10;13
VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and it’s not suitable for all. Investor contact provided in the strike is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;10;15 – 00;00;17;27
CODY
Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I’m Cody. He is Andy. It is the 15th of February 20, 24, about.

00;00;18;02 – 00;00;19;12
ANDY
13.

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CODY
1035 Central Time.

00;00;20;26 – 00;00;23;10
ANDY
Happy Valentine’s Day.

00;00;23;13 – 00;00;27;25
CODY
Happy Chocolate is half off on darn near any store in the country.

00;00;27;27 – 00;00;31;13
ANDY
That meaning a lot of Halloween’s right around the corner.

00;00;31;15 – 00;00;34;04
CODY
Exactly. And give it up for me.

00;00;34;06 – 00;00;51;10
ANDY
Do you think that you think like it’s like trick or treaters would get upset if, like, you gave them, like, allowance? No, but, like, the hearts after holidays are after Valentine’s Day, so it’s like they’re like. They don’t let you do that. Like the for all. My kid goes to kindergarten. They don’t. You’re not allowed to have treats in there anymore.

00;00;51;15 – 00;00;56;16
ANDY
I would have expected them to come home like. But those little things. Nope. Which is nothing.

00;00;56;18 – 00;01;04;17
CODY
Like what? Fatherly advice. I pull your kid out of school right now, but it’s just me.

00;01;04;19 – 00;01;11;22
ANDY
Fatherly advice. Sloth. That one by the missus. We’ll see how that one goes on in the show. Posted.

00;01;11;26 – 00;01;16;23
CODY
All right, well, jump back in the show. I have to request that.

00;01;16;23 – 00;01;22;29
ANDY
We have gym, bro. Chicago Cowboy. Is that what he’s called? The Chicago Cowboy?

00;01;23;01 – 00;01;34;20
CODY
Yep. Maybe this was his specific request, and he actually sent it to us and said, I hope Cody is going to tell everyone that we are going to go fill the gap at 1306 in a quarter.

00;01;34;23 – 00;01;44;28
ANDY
And a quarter and just 13 or six, but they’re 26 and a quarter. We also have a longtime listener, first time caller, Sailor Moon.

00;01;45;00 – 00;01;45;24
CODY
Shout out.

00;01;45;26 – 00;02;06;11
ANDY
Shout out. Right there to Sailor Moon. We’re looking at the spill. It’s going to be a good shout to request Crush post Valentine’s Day chocolates like free at the store. I’m pulling my kid out of school. Overreaction Thursday over Overreaction Thursday. So you want to look at this like right around here, Right. This is the gap that he’s talking about.

00;02;06;13 – 00;02;07;01
ANDY
Yeah.

00;02;07;04 – 00;02;07;29
CODY
Yeah.

00;02;08;02 – 00;02;11;05
ANDY
Well, I think he got to get out of this downtrend first, I think.

00;02;11;07 – 00;02;19;04
CODY
I do believe so. I guess I hate to tell Jimbo, but I don’t see us filling that gap any time soon.

00;02;19;06 – 00;02;44;13
ANDY
This gym, bro sideline. I would agree. I mean, I think if anything, the next step is to go. What’s this guy right here? That low is 11 and a half, basically. Yeah. So I guess what’s interesting here in the shorter term is that you had this like small consolidation, these kind of like stair stepped it down ever so gently lower and then opened lower yesterday, closed lower and then you open lower again here.

00;02;44;15 – 00;03;03;17
ANDY
This just looks like it wants to go Tesla 50 and we just crossed oversold So it’s a little bit of a warning but it’s it’s also like it hasn’t gone into oversold here and then come back out. Right. And so you can’t say that these the secondary indicators here and we’re throwing in a new one. By the way, if anybody saw we got some like this is like Easter type colors, by the way, almost like pesto.

00;03;03;23 – 00;03;20;17
ANDY
This is an ADX. So it’s basically like in a nutshell, I won’t get too far into it. But the higher this blue line goes, the more of a defined trend that you have. So ADX is a measure of like trend and the strength of the trend to try and a couple of new things out here in 2024. But this will tell you that this is got a nice loss.

00;03;20;20 – 00;03;40;12
ANDY
This is it’s trend strength to us. We don’t have the values of there we go. Now we’re cooking. When you start talking about values like over point five, if you look at like here, here, that’s a clear, strong trend. So when this starts to roll over, that’s when you start to see trends really decelerate. So interesting little this is an interesting one.

00;03;40;12 – 00;03;54;25
ANDY
This is this is commonly used for like trend following systems is the ADX is an apple D is in dog X as in what’s the next word X factor X-Men. You should be an X. We should like next solid X-Men.

00;03;55;02 – 00;03;56;05
CODY
Running back.

00;03;56;08 – 00;03;57;23
ANDY
On the docket. All right. I think.

00;03;57;23 – 00;04;03;16
CODY
It’s interesting that you bring up 1150 because if you look at this on a weekly 1150 was actually support.

00;04;03;18 – 00;04;04;29
ANDY
Weekly and.

00;04;05;01 – 00;04;08;07
CODY
Going back into 2020 at 2020.

00;04;08;09 – 00;04;33;15
ANDY
Okay. I see what you’re saying. So to me it’s there. So there’s 1169 there. So it’s bumping up against it. And if we go back, I see you’re saying. So it’s about where it started to kind of go. Right. To me, it’s like it’s also, you know, it’s like $20 milk right there. So it’s like around it’s a is a number that’s it’s kind of like it was like $11.82 or something like that.

00;04;33;15 – 00;04;56;24
ANDY
It’s like 1150, 11 bucks. It’s an easy number. And to me, it’s just like that’s a number I think is just going to have to support given all this stuff right here. But really what we looked at over here, so and I don’t mean I hate to say it to Jim graph, but I think this gap could theoretically the first step to this is to break out of this downtrend.

00;04;56;26 – 00;05;00;20
ANDY
If you want to talk about selling this gap, you have to show that this trend has ended.

00;05;00;22 – 00;05;04;07
CODY
I think I mean, it’s not even close to ending thus far, correct?

00;05;04;13 – 00;05;26;14
ANDY
Correct. You know, the momentum is still negative. We just cross into oversold territory. So it’s a bit of a warning, but really hasn’t crossed back into it. And we’ve seen that fail a few times. The ADX is telling you that the trend is picking back up, which in this case is lower. So this turning back up like this is telling you that we’re continuing, we will continue to trend lower if you’re going to go by that indicator, too.

00;05;26;16 – 00;05;43;28
ANDY
So we’re throw this in the mix. That’s we have some momentum indicators already thrown and trend falling because you can make the argument there’s some good books out there that make the argument that trend following is one of the better ways to trade turtle traders, for example. Excellent. I would recommend it. All right. So sorry to disappoint Jim, bro.

00;05;44;04 – 00;05;46;01
CODY
Maybe next time mop up.

00;05;46;03 – 00;05;52;23
ANDY
But yeah, let’s wait and see. Wait and see. For Jim Brown. All right. You want to look at cotton, right? Yes.

00;05;52;26 – 00;05;53;18
CODY
Yes.

00;05;53;21 – 00;05;59;00
ANDY
This is like yours. And. But cling on or you guys look at that one a lot, right?

00;05;59;02 – 00;06;00;16
CODY
Yeah. Let’s look at that one.

00;06;00;19 – 00;06;03;26
ANDY
On our other longtime listener. First time caller is going to thanks It’s right.

00;06;03;28 – 00;06;07;07
CODY
Clean and I wear the same same brainwaves going on here.

00;06;07;14 – 00;06;15;07
ANDY
Same same brainwaves. But what do you think? What do you think? I do not see anything.

00;06;15;13 – 00;06;19;02
CODY
Yeah. So it was really I was actually kind of peaking it out on a weekly nine.

00;06;19;03 – 00;06;21;16
ANDY
Let’s make it take it out of here.

00;06;21;18 – 00;06;32;16
CODY
I don’t know if cotton like is it is it $0.90 or a dream of fabric? I apologize. I don’t know how this is actually quoted or is it $0.90 a pound pipe and that would not make more sense.

00;06;32;16 – 00;06;34;14
ANDY
Right or wrong.

00;06;34;16 – 00;06;36;21
CODY
I got it out in the field, I guess. I don’t know.

00;06;36;21 – 00;06;41;29
ANDY
But I think you should start a futures contract and have it be like a ring, something everything.

00;06;41;29 – 00;06;42;07
CODY
You could.

00;06;42;07 – 00;06;43;19
ANDY
Do it.

00;06;43;22 – 00;06;46;13
CODY
Either way. I mean, you broke out about $0.90 and we.

00;06;46;13 – 00;06;48;05
ANDY
Start living utensils, contracts.

00;06;48;07 – 00;06;52;00
CODY
We haven’t been there since November of last year.

00;06;52;02 – 00;07;21;10
ANDY
I mean, bam. Right. I mean, that tells a huge story right there, doesn’t it? Yeah, This is going back. I mean, this is a while, right? So this encompasses an entire year’s worth of trade right here and now. It’s just a weekly. It’s Thursday. We still have another today and tomorrow. Obviously, it closes. But if you just stopped right here and close in the week, this would be a new high close going back to gosh, well, Labor Day ish 2022.

00;07;21;12 – 00;07;33;28
CODY
And also got mine on the weekly. I have the moving averages and so we are now just sitting in it is Thursday, just above the 100 day moving average or the in this case, 100 week moving.

00;07;33;28 – 00;07;51;02
ANDY
Out right now. Those are based on like the period in which you’re looking at the chart, Right. So yeah, yeah. No, I mean it’s it’s another sign there, right. And if you think about to like this, this area right here, when you when we broke through it, you tried to get through it here, it became major support right here.

00;07;51;02 – 00;08;14;26
ANDY
Right. And then we finally got through it here. It has been resistance. One thing you can argue, this is resistance again, too. It’s a major. It’s a big price point for the contract itself. Yeah, Very supportive here. Once it broke through there, it’s been acting as resistance. So you got to think that if we can get closer there in saying open higher next week, this thing could really go, I mean, this could get wicked, right?

00;08;14;26 – 00;08;17;26
ANDY
The cotton has shown us before that. I mean, look at this.

00;08;17;29 – 00;08;18;29
CODY
Yeah, look at those moves.

00;08;18;29 – 00;08;39;22
ANDY
You get some of these moves. I mean, it’s not outs. It’s this this is certainly not outside the realm of possibility that you get to weeks like this where, I mean, this is some massive news. It’s a big contract, too. Yeah. So I think you got to be I think you got to be super careful of close and to new heights going back for a full calendar year and then an open higher than next week.

00;08;39;22 – 00;08;56;06
ANDY
Leave all this behind. Anybody that was selling in any of this stuff is now underwater, correct? It’s a huge psychological impact right there. And you just you just start to go. So I’m not I guess you’re getting into T-shirts, but t shirt or anything else. It has cotton and.

00;08;56;09 – 00;08;57;09
CODY
Everything.

00;08;57;11 – 00;09;16;04
ANDY
Else, fabrics, fabrics, although you probably have like super bouncy, like she’s right or like Egyptian cotton, like all that kind of stuff like that. You know, it doesn’t have sort he’s got like, kind of, like thousand counts, right? Or whatever it is. Just like the softest of the softest pillows over there.

00;09;16;07 – 00;09;17;15
CODY
Because we can basically go.

00;09;17;17 – 00;09;34;26
ANDY
Right next to next stop. So talk of the town here recently. But yeah, we’ve we’ve showcased this one a few times and it’s just I mean, it’s so choppy here lately. This is just such a this is been such a tough trade. I mean, you think about yesterday, right? I mean, we kind of felt like she’s just starting to get some momentum for the upside.

00;09;34;26 – 00;09;53;05
ANDY
You had this breakout from this long term downtrend gapped higher out of it. Right. And is maintaining that breakout. So even though we have been lower the last two weeks, still have the rest of the week like it’s just been what was the block down seven yesterday and it’s well, discount of the barrel which is pretty rare. I don’t know what to make of this.

00;09;53;05 – 00;10;13;01
ANDY
I mean, I think to me I still like this lower high or any higher low is going to make. And if we have this kind of head fake here and then go back up, I guess that wouldn’t surprise me. But I think at the very least, this is going to maintain itself right here, meaning like we are going to continue to put in higher lows.

00;10;13;05 – 00;10;24;03
ANDY
I think that’s something to be really blindfold and see why futures are premium up forward right there. Futures are telling us we’re more like going to be in this area up here. So what do you think?

00;10;24;10 – 00;10;33;22
CODY
I tend to disagree with you on this. And I think we talked about it a little bit. I don’t think I don’t think that gap at a dollar 38 it ever truly been filled.

00;10;33;25 – 00;10;36;12
ANDY
So which one are you talking about right here going.

00;10;36;12 – 00;10;51;00
CODY
Back to July, Just a little bit higher than that left right there. Okay. I don’t think that was truly filled. I really don’t. I know we talked about it. When we get close to being down there and some people are saying, well, you know, it tried it, tested it, and then we kind of bounce back out of it.

00;10;51;00 – 00;10;58;15
CODY
I just I, I think we are going to be in for another trip down to about $40.38. I really do.

00;10;58;17 – 00;11;20;14
ANDY
I mean, you want to talk about getting the launch button, then the $2 area. I mean, that would certainly certainly help. Right? It you’re looking for a little return. Hey, at least one of us will be right, I’m sure I hear what you’re saying. It’s it’s it’s been at all. So, like, we were like it’s been somewhat kind of disappointing because this after breaking out, having this gap.

00;11;20;14 – 00;11;29;26
ANDY
And then if you just look at it on this charts that come in, this thing’s going to go and it’s just been bumped. But never mind. So you’re thinking we go back.

00;11;29;29 – 00;11;36;12
CODY
Well, and also the RSI, I mean, we’ve touched kind of oversold there a little bit on the green line, but we have we ever really gone.

00;11;36;15 – 00;11;37;14
ANDY
Sort of. Whoa.

00;11;37;16 – 00;11;38;25
CODY
Yeah, exactly. So difference.

00;11;38;25 – 00;11;41;04
ANDY
Of touch there back in June.

00;11;41;07 – 00;11;42;22
CODY
When we were like, okay, yeah.

00;11;42;27 – 00;11;53;16
ANDY
I mean, I see what you’re saying for sure. Again, you know, hey, we can have a difference of opinion. Sorry. That’s okay. Let’s go to.

00;11;53;19 – 00;11;55;18
CODY
The topic of yesterday. That’s what makes a market.

00;11;55;26 – 00;12;18;24
ANDY
That’s what makes a market. There you go. So that’s very poignant right there right now. Okay. I ask this question, Do you think we go past do you think we’re going to go beyond this low again? So let’s pull this out. Real singer. So that’s 38. Call it 139, basically. So you think we’re going to be 139 offer basically within the next month?

00;12;18;26 – 00;12;21;12
CODY
Yes. Okay. The next 2 to 3 weeks.

00;12;21;12 – 00;12;23;03
ANDY
Yes. Got it. Got it. Okay.

00;12;23;05 – 00;12;28;18
CODY
Now to your point, if you’re looking bullish further out, I mean, that’s only going to strengthen your opinion on this.

00;12;28;18 – 00;12;58;10
ANDY
I will certainly have fuel to fire for sure. I just I mean, I’m more of the opinion, the lows. We’re just we’re going to continue to see this type of activity and maybe we come back down into like here or something, but just like a continued stair step until we start to build into an uptrend. And keep an eye on this ADX down here, this blue line, I think that starts to build some momentum going this way, which don’t give me like just be clear to this can go up into a lower trending market.

00;12;58;10 – 00;13;21;15
ANDY
It’s trending lower. If you remember that beans, for example, we just looked at sorry, Jim, to go back to the knife only a little bit. But this look, I mean, this going up indicates a strong trend. Yes. So that, again, I think what you’re going to start to see is higher lows and this start to actually turn up as the market starts trending.

00;13;21;15 – 00;13;35;10
ANDY
Well, I think a higher that’s just my thing. Okay. So let’s see, we do have one more on the docket for today from us, from Sailor Moon crushing it.

00;13;35;12 – 00;13;36;15
CODY
A new call out to a.

00;13;36;16 – 00;13;41;16
ANDY
New call out. Longtime listener, first time call out S&P.

00;13;41;18 – 00;13;57;01
CODY
I think last time you and I talked about this, actually, we were kind of talking about this trend, right, where you you’re up for five, seven days in a row and then you drop pretty hard the next day that you engulf what had happened the previous day on Reddit.

00;13;57;03 – 00;14;19;16
ANDY
I guess the thing that bugs me about this chart is you’ve got some of these secondary indicators that are just not fair. You keep bumping up against oversold, coming back into it, you know, like the ADX down here, like look at this failure to put in a new high. That is a that to me is a warning sign of a trend, is losing strength, which in this case the trend is higher.

00;14;19;18 – 00;14;39;26
ANDY
Right. And so this doing that in let’s say it starts to dip back a little light point to an indicator like a consolidation. And if we started to see this consolidate, I would argue that that’s probably the trend ending till a while. Right. And we’re going to roll over and maybe retrace some of the stuff and also look at it and say to like you had this wicked down days, right?

00;14;40;02 – 00;15;00;21
ANDY
They’ve been recouped. Right? Don’t get me wrong, the trend continues, but it seems like the market’s just kind of on edge, right? It takes a few days to recoup a down day loss of time. On to here know. To me, it’s like you’ve had this big move. We’re starting to see some secondary stuff, you know, shake it a little shaky ground, if you will.

00;15;00;23 – 00;15;09;03
ANDY
And this trend is not very strong here. It’s just if you’re looking at the index, it’s telling you that the momentum here is starting doing a little bit.

00;15;09;03 – 00;15;15;01
CODY
So then does does 5000 become a point where we just kind of bounce around for a little bit then?

00;15;15;06 – 00;15;32;04
ANDY
Could be. I mean, I think what you could like I think the I guess the concern here would be, you know, to your point, we looked at like 1150, so it’s like $20 and you get to a number like 5000. So you get a close below that. Right. So let’s say you break through, you know, you have this long term trend, right?

00;15;32;06 – 00;15;53;24
ANDY
If let’s say that gets broken and then you get it close below 5000, that’s where I think you could get like a couple of down. Right. And all of a sudden it’s like, yikes, you know, this this guy turns negative and, you know, you get the RSI that starts to cross over the midway point, the midpoint, which would be, you know, which would lead to further selling.

00;15;53;27 – 00;16;10;17
ANDY
You start to get some of the bigger technical indicators suddenly to almost like bandwagon selling, to see some of that in some of these bigger markets where it’s like the 100 day moving average or 200 day moving average, who’s violated for looking at that. And actually that can that can make a difference. So yeah, a lot of warning signs coming out of here.

00;16;10;21 – 00;16;20;09
ANDY
So I don’t know what Saylor means down here in this move, but you might want to be thinking about maybe she’s going chart. Who knows? I don’t know. We’ll have to ask what’s it like to have her on the show.

00;16;20;11 – 00;16;21;26
CODY
Right top guys.

00;16;21;29 – 00;16;25;04
ANDY
Moons and you know I just really have one though, right?

00;16;25;07 – 00;16;26;13
CODY
Yeah. So far.

00;16;26;16 – 00;16;33;23
ANDY
So far. You know what? I think? Like, you should try and be an astronaut someday.

00;16;33;26 – 00;16;35;27
CODY
I don’t know. I don’t know what’s going to happen.

00;16;36;04 – 00;16;50;13
ANDY
Like, let me call. Like, you just get shot in the outer space. I mean, it’s not that far, but for me, when you think about it, is it’s like outer space isn’t technically that far away, like within a mile spaces, right? Yeah.

00;16;50;16 – 00;16;51;09
CODY
Sure.

00;16;51;12 – 00;16;58;10
ANDY
Sure, sure. That’s like in sink or something like that. Go to the moon. Like, that’s Why can’t you?

00;16;58;12 – 00;17;00;14
CODY
Why can’t you. That’s a good question.

00;17;00;17 – 00;17;04;10
ANDY
Eventually get to 10,000 subscribers. We will call NASA. We actually do that.

00;17;04;11 – 00;17;14;21
CODY
We’re we’re over a thousand now. We just need everybody else’s help to get to 10,000 so we can get this pizza party. And if I’m not mistaken on the call the other day, Phil said he might throw in a little something extra for a.

00;17;14;23 – 00;17;17;09
ANDY
Little something, something extra there for you.

00;17;17;12 – 00;17;36;06
CODY
Folks, if you would, please help us get to 10,000 subscribers by DESE 30 if of this year, we would be eternally grateful for that. We’re looking forward to it. Working very hard. All the shows that Paige and her team puts out with excellent content. If you would just go to the subscribe button, give it a thumbs up, leave a comment.

00;17;36;12 – 00;17;50;21
CODY
We love comments. We love comments, but still trying to get 10,000 subscribers by the end of this year. And I know we’re going to do it, but anyway, well, that’s going to do it for Andy and us. Andy and I. On another episode of Tech Talk.

00;17;50;23 – 00;17;53;11
ANDY
They had a three.

00;17;53;13 – 00;17;54;08
CODY
We’ll see you next week.

00;17;54;10 – 00;17;55;22
ANDY
The editorial wave.

00;17;55;24 – 00;17;58;13
CODY
The Royal Mail, The Royal We It’s.

00;17;58;15 – 00;18;00;16
ANDY
The Royal Week Editorial.