In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss soybeans, corn, crude oil, and May butter.
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(Transcipt auto-generated)
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VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and it’s not suitable for all. Investor contact provided.
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In the strike is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities. Hello everybody.
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Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody. He is Andy. Together we are the tech talk trio. The trio?
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Sure you guys our page.
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And we’re actually a day ahead of schedule today. We’re actually filming this on Wednesday, the 21st of February.
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Wednesday.
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And we’re.
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One day at his head. We’re in the future.
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So three Central Time earliest, not my earliest, but early tech talk from.
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What we are.
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Pretty close. I think last week it was in the morning but it was also on a third. True.
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That’s true. We are two. Two people had texted in looking for charts.
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Two people, one of those B persons person is a new request, another a newbie sailor Moon So this.
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Would come from she’s she’s.
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She’s taken a sailor break in terms of getting that this this game from market I’m a.
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Market I’m Mike.
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Market I might.
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Shout out I love that.
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I love that I love that name That’s a great market I mean like how many people do you know named Market?
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I know a guy named Prison.
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Mike Yeah, Remember prison? Like, that’s pretty much how thank you for your interest.
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My first I remember too. I remember prison.
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Mike We’ll get him on this. Everybody knows prison.
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We’re going to mine for that.
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We got market.
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Network.
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And then longtime listener long time caller Jim Browse is you want to talk about us on just want to talk about one or two not to not to chance but just one so Jim brought in market I Mike and we’re actually going to start with market and Mike’s first chart request and his request was also a little bit more in depth do so he was asking for beans and corn front month versus some of the deferred months.
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So in this case we’re only at March beans and then we’re gonna look at knows 24 and if there’s any material difference so I’ll just get a started this is March beans and I guess the only thing that what sticks out to me is that like any attempts that we’ve had to try to break out of this downtrend, it’s just been met with aggressive selling.
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This time, though, we’re actually up against what appears to be pretty long term support in the march being contracted. Please. We’ve also got the momentum piece that was talked about before. What was fabulous.
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It’s also very.
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Reminiscent of of May beans that we looked at last week also notes.
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It but it’s it’s it’s starting to put in at least trying to put in a W you’re right which is which would be a friendly formation for this which would imply it doesn’t necessarily mean beans have to go higher. Right. Just because if this thing goes from up to zero, for example, that could just mean that the market’s consolidating.
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That doesn’t necessarily mean we need to go higher. Right. That’s all this is saying is that the momentum to the downside is slowing down. So ipso facto, between longer term, very little, but looks like pretty, pretty solid support. I mean, last time we were at 1150, we probably went to $14.
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Yes.
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Right. And so it’s a key area. I mean, if he breaks through that, it’s going to continue to go lower like today’s. It is going to get really dicey to the downside. But between this w here and this long term support, I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a little bit of consolidation. I would imagine 1150 beans is probably going to drop some buying now.
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What do you think.
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I can say? You’ve always said kind of look at the longer term chart on a longer term scale. If you look at a monthly.
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Longer term, 11, 11.
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Is looks like the next testing area.
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So the monthly does I mean, so we’re almost at the end of the month too, by the way, about that. So the monthly doesn’t you’re almost closing into a new breaker so that low though. So what’s interesting is it really doesn’t jive that well with what we’ve looked at before since. But this low is is reporting 1171. I think we have to look into that bar to make sure, because if you look at like the daily and it’s pretty clear that that low right here is 1145 and a quarter.
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So there’s some there’s a little bit of issue that we’re having was like how the data is actually being pulled in, What chart is being used to calculate that monthly data. That said, it’s still not looking too rosy out here. It’s to me I feel like what will take precedent here is, is this support level duty breaks, Arun.
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If you don’t and then you break out of this long, longer term downtrend, you could see a retracement of this and then maybe take another shot at going lower, right? So if we just do this, bam like it’s so if I think this is a head and shoulders pattern right here below I want heads or such asking me shoulder to shoulder right here.
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And then we broke through the neckline. And so I took from the first that shoulder right here where it failed on the right side here in just a seven hour chart from where it’s at now, we take a 30% return, one that takes 1236 us with totally within reason. So thinking of me a little bit careful here. I guess if I was short, I’d be looking at buying calls or maybe converting at risk and inputs or something.
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But if you look at her market, I makes request. The only difference. The difference that I see here is the deferred. Have more room to break before I run into major.
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Support is November.
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This is Nov 24. So again market. I want to look at the difference between the front like March and no right you know the nearby versus backs in. What I think is interesting about it too is that the momentum is putting in a lower high and a lower low. That’s a sign of weakness still. So the momentum would suggest that this trend lower will continue to break.
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So you could see, I guess, the near buys consolidate the difference break.
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So you’re saying in that opinion, are you seeing the front months are kind of a by the deferred there would be a sell.
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You could yeah I mean I guess you only like put on some kind of spread right right by March so I would.
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I’m.
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Not like talk to market I like these in our office it’s an internal one. I don’t I’m not a fundamental expert by any means and beats for sure and to me it’s like if you could have like if there are some sort of like short term news item that comes up in the next couple of weeks, does that cause like the drastic might kind of like what you’d see in the in the cash market, Right, right, right.
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Like, you know, if we were to pop now like March April and rally but with these 24 do anything probably not. And so do you see something similar? I’m like I said you talk to the market I like to Jim Brock, one of the two gentlemen. We’ll be able to help you out a little bit more fundamental knowledge.
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But yeah, it looks like the fronts could consolidate while the backs continue to break. He also asked for corn.
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Corn trajectory here.
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Yeah. So, I mean, I don’t really know what to say about corn other than it just not looking too too good.
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Absolute monthly.
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Let’s take a peek at the monthly and you heard it skip on the weekly.
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Just yeah.
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Yeah but I think.
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Once you.
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Draw that line last time we had talked about this on TikTok, I don’t know if it was last week or the two two.
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Shows.
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None of the stuff. None of this stuff is good. So that’s that’s the Monthly, the weekly is clearly rolling over. You know, if you want to look at like where is like the next area, right? I mean, if the weekly seem to find the most momentum, I mean, really start to get here, right? So if you just extend this.
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Right.
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So like it can, I guess, get two blocks, four bucks, you know, maybe get some consolidation there. But again, like the momentum is not really giving you much to write on the mom about in terms of potential reversal or just consolidation. Not like what we saw in March means. And then if you go to what’s on use Christmas corn, these 24 Christmas corn, which was corn, looks like it’s actually a little bit more friendly than than nearby is like here you have a clear you know, you have to attempt to break out failure.
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But then now you’re at least trying to put in a higher low here, at least in terms of momentum, which would tell you that the rate and the downtrend is declining, the rate of change. So let’s go back. It’s March, March.
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Nice.
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I guess it hasn’t totally broken out yet in the momentum piece, but that’s a weighted candle right there. It’s good. Look at that price in the process. But there it is. And there’s no like you broke this support here. It’s like the closed here, which is in like what, another like 20 minutes? Like you’re closing on the lows.
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It just looks like that downtrend is going to perpetuate. Whereas at Christmas there you’re at least asked you need to close below this low for satisfies and triggers.
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It also seems the opposite of soybeans that we just checked out. Checked out. This seems to be sell the upfront by the herds in corn where it was vice versa on the soybean side.
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Correct? Correct. Graphics back to the vice versa. Sell the fronts by the backs and the knees in the corn. I mean, but.
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If you look at it on a mostly just by itself, it doesn’t look very bullish. Miami.
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Right? I mean, like I don’t I I’m not thrilled about like hitting the buy button on corn in any I would.
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Be at $3.
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That.
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I mean.
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Okay right but.
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I hear you’re saying like let’s go back to the months later without saying it.
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I mean yeah I.
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For sure I mean I 100% say we’re saying from like that standpoint, three bucks always ago. But I hear you’re saying to me that you’re.
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You guys count.
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All right. Well, I should I mean I think that covers it for market. I, I hope I hope as more requests I know you’re trying to get to 10,000 subscribers. So I by the way, for you to use subscribers, I mean, we’re going to be like tech talk in the rock, you know, like social media influence and stuff like that.
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But like when tech talk drops, it’s just going to be like that day.
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Somebody said, they’re going to send me some moon also, but I’m pretty excited.
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Sending to the low.
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Tech talk on the moon.
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I’m gonna over the moon.
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What would you do it like for a day on the.
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Moon for.
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Like, bounce around, like.
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Check it out, see what’s up there? You’re seen Interstellar.
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See nonchalant.
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Kind of picture. That being my life. When we get to 10,000 subscribers.
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Which part like where Gravity acts on that like on that planet and like 45 minutes on that planet is like 20 years or whatever it.
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Was back.
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In space.
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See myself in the present day. But it’s actually the past me, but it’s future me looking at past me through the bookshelf.
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All right, all right, all right. Hey, you know what.
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You could do? You could go back and at least, like, tell us what’s what’s how’s the spread trade fair market mechanism or market? I might work out. You could go back and, like, be, like, given us some Morse code. I’m like, don’t buy rice. That’s. Boy, that was quite that was quite the Matthew McConaughey Russian actor. I think he got a bright future in like being his stock.
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Also to me I think.
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I think you do. I think so. All right, Jim, one to look at. Crude of.
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Crude.
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Yes. I don’t really know what to say to other than like the first thing that pops into my mind when I saw it was, you know, is this failing to break through? You know, what was once it was clear resistance here, 70 just over, just under 79 bucks. This is the May contract breaks and now it’s taken a shot at it Is it if it starts to roll over, that’s a clear failure to test farmer resistance.
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That would suggest that we’re going to take a little dip back down in here somewhere. look, the same thing.
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I pull up the April that I switch the May, kind of like you have in here. And it looks like a giant information is taking shape. And I was gonna say back down to 70 bucks was kind of the next testy point on that one, too.
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What bothers me about this is that you had quite the long term downtrend get broken recently right. And it hasn’t. And it you attempted to come back into it somewhat, right? Like right here.
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And.
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After way right back lost it. So the market doesn’t seem to like I mean, this was up, if you like. I guess I’m just looking back at this downtrend. There’s some course, one, there’s two, and now we have a third higher low. Right. So I guess something to be super careful of is are we seeing the makings of a potential ascending triangle?
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If that is the case, you would expect to see, depending on where you want to draw this thing, right. If that was the case, you would expect to see like continued higher lows while bumping up against the same basic area of resistance. And at some point like it, they basically converge. And that is usually a bullish pattern. Ascending triangles are typically pretty bullish.
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You kind of had one over here, right, where you bump up against the same as a 70 blocks. Basically, you bump up against that same horizontal area and you start to like stair step at higher each time you try to break. But those are usually preceding a pretty big bullish move. So to your point, it seems to be for me, I agree.
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I think the real test of that will be breaking below the slope, break below this low, and then this is like, we’ll see later on better. So we’ll see and know it’s going to get cheaper for you to go. Tank. I don’t.
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Know. Not yet.
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Not yet.
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But it’ll be yeah they’re going to be super careful because like I guess conversely too, if you don’t even take a shot at passing this low and you break out from here, you have a big downtrend that got broken. You have momentum. That’s clearly to the upside and then you break through. I mean, this area to us must use that number actually, because it was a point where, like those like those touches of the longer term downtrend become somewhat magnets.
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Right. And so, like the next stop would be up in here, which would put prices.
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Off at 96.80, 80.
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Three, 88, 84.
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Bucks. So.
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Yeah, this one, I said this is sort of roll over. You probably be short for a little bit, but I’d want to be super mindful of this area right here. Breaks through that. Bob’s your uncle. We are all over pretty hard, but this looks like it’s it’s starting to take like an ascending triangle type formation broke out of a big downtrend.
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You’re in a sort of, you know, bump up against the same level of resistance and keep making ighalo’s until you take off.
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You.
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If I had a bet, that would be what I think is going to happen. I don’t think we roll over and go zero. My bet would be the ascending triangle take shape and then you take this as we get towards like the spring was.
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You can say the way that you have that ace and in triangle form made it formulated there. Wow. Can you talk today?
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there.
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Is a you could be nothing I think for a long time. Next couple of months, two months.
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And the longer that you do make that formation bullish, the more like more explosive that thing is. But what is it from, by the way, was it black sheep or was it? I think it was black sheep. Limit. Limit.
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Limit, limit limit is no big word limit.
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Not one of those funny words limit. Chris Farley.
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I don’t remember that part.
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All right. Last but certainly not least, this one did not come a request. You never just can take a seat in the.
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60.
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OPEC. But man, strong like bull would butter. Love this thing. here you go. Check this out. So this is so we just talked about 80 tracks.
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Perfect. So.
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You know, this isn’t as good a one, but you made a higher low here and. But bumped up against it. But then as soon as you broke through it, it started to go so. But bounced higher. Try it again. Take it off and then off. No, I can’t.
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For the moment as it goes.
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I’m going to do a W also.
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I look at that in May. Butter strong like bull. The single pretty sharp the only you’re out of.
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Anything.
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That I don’t know so you don’t have the RSI. I’ve got the RSI up on mine, but.
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The listing thinks I can pull it.
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Into.
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Overbought territory. But once we jumped above that RSI line, we haven’t really. We haven’t come below it since beginning middle of January.
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Yes.
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So you’re like, Totally. Yeah, totally. See what you’re saying? It has it crossed overbought territory as soon as it broke out of the span right here. Right. So but to your point, you can stay over, you know the quotes overbought for a very long time. It’s not until you cross through it and then take you know, you need to have like multiple closes within like back below this red line and start to actually that’s so I think momentum is also a really good indicator too.
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Like if this thing, if momentum crossed zero and then you saw this cross back, then that would be a big warning sign that make up like this trend in the letters. It’s done. So you have some conflicting like secondary indicators do point. We haven’t gotten out of this yet, though. This is not telling you that. It’s just it’s giving you like the warning, like the attention to.
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As you said.
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It.
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This is momentum is something you really want to look at. And that is for me to do a W formation. It’s looks like we’re going to stay above that over button territory for a little bit correction.
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You could say you could see overbought for a lengthy, lengthy period of time for sure. So I don’t like Mike and I wouldn’t take this as a means of saying it’s time to liquidate it. Just take this as a means of saying like, hey, this is it’s starting to indicate this is maybe overbought. You want to be super mindful.
00;17;24;06 – 00;17;38;22
Maybe that’s enough for you to say, like maybe launch futures, buy some puts against them, say something to that effect. We’ll see if anything happens. They have butter on the moon. Like, is that are you going to set up on a business on the moon or like a.
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Lemonade stand for all the pasteurized.
00;17;40;19 – 00;17;47;06
Lemonade? Lemonade stand, George It’s like sliced by or something like that. All right.
00;17;47;06 – 00;17;48;21
And you stand for all the basketball.
00;17;48;23 – 00;17;53;21
It’s going to be like the first company on the moon is ever egg and I’m the one leading the charge.
00;17;53;28 – 00;17;56;22
Are you going to like. Are you going to, like, prepare speech?
00;17;56;29 – 00;17;58;01
Yeah.
00;17;58;03 – 00;17;59;04
I think I would.
00;17;59;07 – 00;18;06;12
Like You don’t you don’t just want to, like, sit on the ground. So the first time on the moon and just, like, not have anything to say, like you got to have something like really profound to say.
00;18;06;12 – 00;18;14;24
So as long as I make it back from the moon right then. Then you give your speech, you want to be a failed mission, actually, than the small space thing.
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Now we got to get there.
00;18;17;07 – 00;18;25;20
We need to get to 10,000 subscribers. So like before I go to space and train for, you know, the two weeks or whatever the train program is for NASA.
00;18;25;23 – 00;18;26;13
Two weeks, you need.
00;18;26;14 – 00;18;33;07
To get 10,000 subscribers. And then once we do fills that I’d be able to go to the moon. Very excited to get my suit fitted.
00;18;33;09 – 00;18;35;09
She looks like I.
00;18;35;11 – 00;18;37;12
Appreciate Bill for this opportunity.
00;18;37;14 – 00;18;39;22
But with that give everyone.
00;18;39;22 – 00;18;48;19
We’re very close to 10,000 subscribers. I think we’re at like 1800 or something like that. Few more and we’ll get there. Pages say no, we’re out like a thousand, maybe a thousand.
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I said, We’re getting there. We’re climbing the ladder closed. We’re climbing the ladder.
00;18;52;14 – 00;19;03;10
So we get 10,000. By the end of December, we get a pizza party for the company. I get to go to the moon and we have a very good following on YouTube. Three great things to look forward to in 2024.
00;19;03;16 – 00;19;08;09
You should probably clarify with so that he’s going to give you a ride back from the moon to say good point.
00;19;08;16 – 00;19;16;28
I don’t want to be dropped off and this lady, he’s just like turns it around you will your good.
00;19;16;29 – 00;19;23;22
Excited about that but be a friend tell a friend subscribe to the channel if the notification bell gives a thumbs up. We’ll see you next time.
00;19;23;24 – 00;19;26;14
See you on the moon. We’ll do the show from the moon.
The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-…
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod