In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss May class III, Q3 class III and June fat cattle.

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Future trading involves risk and not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

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Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, this is Andy from Chicagoland. Not sorry Wheaton, to be specific. This week. It’s actually going to be just two of us today after our last week’s mash up with Jake and Jim. That got a lot of rave reviews. So people were very excited about that.

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Yeah, I got to cool myself off after that. That was getting hot.

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It was good. It was. We’re definitely going to have to do that one again. People really enjoyed it. They gave some great insights to the charts that we were talking about. But until then, it’s just me and you, buddy.

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And that’s okay. You know, all the important people are here right now, right? I tell you what, I need to do those I need to get at. I need to get a cowboy on one of those. You don’t look up and then forward. So, I mean, you got all cool accessories, you got cowboy hats, you get hammers. Yeah.

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Crochet hammer. Making it into.

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The same thing back there. I heard the hammers ten charged up.

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Right now we’re getting ready to roll.

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All right. Should we get into it? We should end this thing. Let’s do it. All right. Man. Class three.

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The volatile monster.

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What a ride. This bad boys. Ben, what do you think?

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Here we were talking a little wave. I still believe the Elliott wave theory is in play. And I’ll be honest, the way that I have mine drawn. If that is true. 1880 is where my Elliott wave tops out at or so.

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This is about waves for you, which would then you’d want to take the last one and kind of just lay it on there right. Which would then to your point, take us right around there.

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There you go.

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1880 19 Max.

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That is exactly what I had drawn. And I think, you know, check all bases loaded with Joe Schmidt. He will be able to give a little bit more insight, but May is a five week pricing month, right?

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Five week months. And what are we on where we’re on week two right now? This this turns a the 26. So we’re on to this one starts I mean like it first of all the volume and like the volatility has just been outrageous I think I was on the train yesterday at a little after 8 a.m. central time, and we were already down 60 points right then.

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You know here we are. You know cash was worth unchanged today. Yeah. Catch us on change today. May is a premium and yet we’re 45 higher. We’re higher now than when we were before during cash. This is definitely a very interesting one. Seems like there’s been a lot of news to was like I think we saw, you know, some of the recent news about like avian flu and milk in grocery stores and is that going to cause demand destruction?

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And it seems like there’s a lot of headline news coming up. But, you know, to your point, I certainly would agree with this. What you’re talking about was Elliott Wave. And I think we’ve just can’t measure this high right there. Right. And now we took a shot at getting through it. Couldn’t do it. If we do it again this could just get kind of nasty here right to the upside.

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And I don’t think you need a whole lot out of cheese to really do that. Right. In terms of like, let’s say we climbed to like $1.80, which is only another nickel away. I think that’s when you start to get that trade. I guess the question is, let’s say we go trade 19 blocks. Are you a seller of that or.

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I would be, because if you look back at October, November, I think the high that we didn’t settle here, but the high that we tested was 1895. I think if you get to $19, you’ve got look at being a seller at that price. Now you’re putting in contract highs for a month. That is at that point probably going to be 50% priced, give or take.

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If not more. Yeah. So you’re talking about this high over here. You know.

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Exactly.

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Okay. Yeah I mean it was interesting yesterday to I think you pointed up for Chad like the open interest in May from yesterday went down. That would suggest, you know people getting out of longs to write it for an asset, a lower open interest goes down. It doesn’t necessarily, you know, facilitate some of that or I should say like confirm price action.

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So tomorrow’s open interest will be certainly interesting. But you know here we’ve already closed for the day in terms of a word will settle. So if you just look at today’s candle relative to yesterday that is totally engulfing. Yes, we completely engulfed yesterday’s open and close. Right. Still the body of the candle was an open higher. Tomorrow we could be off the raises.

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It’s also interesting ADP right around the corner conference in town. So always in fireworks and around that time. But that technically speaking I mean you basically like this is big volume that we’re trying to change hands week after yesterday’s price action did it on unchanged years. And now we’re climbing right back to former highs. So this is looking good I hear you saying about this Elliott Wave thing man.

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If I’m not mistaken I think it was Monday. Our coworker Kevin let us know that May had the most traded contract in one day of all time. Right. We were up above 2000, I believe.

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Yeah, I think it was like 2100. Yeah. Setting records.

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Yeah, we’re setting records and even today we’ve traded 1100. Yesterday was over 1000 I think Tuesday was also I mean so we’ve had a lot of a lot of volume. And these moves are just 50 high or 40 lower, 30 higher levels. Yeah. It’s just massive right now.

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That big range is not I agree today’s session is super interesting. Engulfing yesterday big volume. And then yesterday’s open interest declined suggests people were getting out necessarily getting you know new shorts. So so who else has been interesting. So this is somewhat similar but not quite.

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Yeah. What do you make of this. Can you even throw an Elliott wave in there. I was trying to.

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Earlier I think you can I just think we haven’t. So to your point earlier, we’ve already completed wave three on May, but I think we were just getting ready to start to perk into wave three over here for Q3, which would suggest if we did, you’d want to add about 20%. You want to also take it from a breakout.

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So you could argue that, like if we’re going to break out, it’s going to be we’re out here, okay. And so then that takes that price. You’re talking about 19.5, 1973. And interestingly enough, I mean like, you know, the summer months, you know, we’re just rounding out April, right. But what’s interesting about it, from at least like a fundamental perspective, is that this is the time of the year when we should be, you know, adding milk, not seeing a reduction.

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So we’re seeing a reduction in milk supply during a time when, you know, again, we should business certainly isn’t. I would say at the very least it supports I.

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Would agree, I would agree, I think we had a supportive US report from milk production on Monday. Fairly or supportive cold storage report yesterday. But I think it’s really propping this up, like you said for an interesting ADP starting Sunday night in Chicago with everybody there.

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I totally agree. If you were to break out from here, you’d start talking about a lot of, you know, you break out of this the same price over here. You be talking about new contract highs, leaving a lot of selling behind. I think we’re just kind of starting to see wave to play out. This doesn’t look the same as May because again, you can make the argument that we’ve already completed the third wave, which is usually the biggest one under itself.

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It’s interesting because you’ve also got this little hammer that took shape yesterday, and then you’ve got a pretty aggressive close higher today. This looks like it could go. This looks like it could go green in between May and Q3 especially May. I mean these things are just what’s the phrase. It’s just been they’ve been in and.

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Speaker 1
I you know bumping.

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Them I bet better bottom. Yeah. No I am.

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Is these charts are vivid.

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In pop and they’re all over the place. It’s out of control. Last but not least, we’re doing three for three.

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Three for three.

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You wanted to have this in there? I think you get the hammer ready. Why don’t you talk to us about June cycle?

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June fats. I am bullish on June fat. So I got the 20 day moving average on mine. Looks like you do also. I mean that was kind of a little low I think we opened up actually I’m on a 20 day moving average bounce ourselves higher, engulfed all of the past two days trade actually not just yesterday but the past two days.

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And I think you’re kind of getting a little bit of a swing towards the upside here. Now you got to get through the 5100 day moving average, which you’re up there at about 180, give or take. But if you can cross back through that, I believe you got another shot of testing those highs of 185 ish.

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So you had this range that we traded within for some time. What you’re saying is step one, as we get back inside all this noise, right. Just call it from here to here, get back in there and then what do we go from there? It’s interesting about it. Two point is, you know, you’re getting sounds like a U type shape that you’ve got some of the secondary stuff certainly looking like it’s confirming it at the very least.

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Right. So the momentum piece crossing zero, testing it and then crossing it and then confirming it and just continuing to accelerate that on itself is friendly to a quick a brief moment below the blue, which would be oversold and have since been steadily climbing itself out of it. So yeah, I mean, the secondary stuff is certainly suggestion and was and I think it’s interesting too is the weekly.

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The weekly I think is pretty friendly to me. I feel like the weekly is kind of shaking itself up, like almost like an ascending triangle. If you want to use this like 188 number, it’s 188 numbers. It’s kind of like your, I guess, like point of resistance, right? You haven’t had to close over it even though you took one, two, three shots to get through it.

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You can get it close over it. Tried here failed. And now we’re making a higher low right. So bounced off 188 for a pretty aggressively came back to it. Didn’t break nearly as aggressively that on itself again that’s an ascending triangle. It’s a bullish formation. It’s people looking at breaks and saying oh I don’t want to wait to see a lower low.

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I want to get it bought now.

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And we have yet to settle necessarily below that long term trend line that you have drawn from, you know, way back.

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With 22 correct. That’s another one. You’ve got some things that are just like, you know, we’ve had this big setback, came back trying to have another setback. Not nearly as much like a close over this. Highs when high as this 190. So you’ve been just getting beyond this 188 number you know. So you get a close in one 80.5 and then, you know, a 190 close next day.

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That to me I think about all this trade that you’ve leaves behind. And then to your point you start to talk about getting back into some of those ranges. And it’s just to me it’s I don’t know, I can see why you got the hammer warmed up.

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There’s already no it’s a good segue into it. I think facts are definitely a buy at this point in the game.

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Give me a little bit more strength. I’m going to.

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Shake the table too much. Last night, as the camera page almost had a order. Me a new camera and a computer.

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That’s all right.

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It’s wild over here. We get a little bit of excitement.

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Starts getting nuts around here, and that’s it. I mean, I don’t know anything else you want to talk about. Who does that? Cattle. But it seems like it’s, you know, no pun intended. Sort of like.

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Bull. I mean, there’s things happening outside of the chart within USDA and everything else that’s kind of happening with the government as far as, you know, movement of cattle that we don’t quite know exactly what it’s going to look like yet. So I don’t want to step too far out of bounds on that. But the more information we get on there, you could be looking for some more bullish talk out of these cattle, depending on how they can move throughout the country.

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And I think that’s what we have to keep a look at. And I know it’s outside of the chart, but it’s still going to ramp up itself for the fat cattle here.

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Sure. I mean something to be mindful of. The hammer has spoken.

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It’s spoken, it’s spoken. We are bullish. We’re ready to go. I think I think we’re bullish on all three charts today.

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It’s a very bullish day. Sun’s out. It’s a great day somehow. But you know I’m looking about sunshine there.

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So 50 degrees it’s a good day.

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That’s perfect. Now you can go out there and mow your neighbor’s lawn.

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There you go. Looking forward to it tonight.

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That’s on the docket portion.

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All right everybody we appreciate you tuning into Tech Talk. Andy and I are actually going to be gone next week. There will not be an episode. We will be back the following week pretty much to start us out with the month of May. Looking at some more charts. If you have anything that you want to look at, anything you want to talk about, please email them into us.

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Give us a call, choose a text we’d be happy to look for those, but till then have a great rest of the week and even better weekend. We’ll see you in two weeks.

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