In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss CME cheese, July soybean meal and spot nonfat.

Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.

Charts sourced from Ever.Ag Platform.

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Future trading involves risk and not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this book is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

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Hello everybody. Welcome back to Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is Andy. Together we make up the tech talk crew. It is Friday. We actually have a Friday morning episode May 10th, 2024. And we actually have two requests today on three charts.

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Two requests.

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You request.

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No kidding.

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Yeah.

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Cheese.

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One. It’s been a hot week.

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It’s been hot yesterday. That. And it’s been like it’s hard for you to I mean like I think you got to get something there. We have our middle URLs on screen.

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There was a lot.

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We talk about this last summer by the way.

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Like that we did I just I forgot my sunscreen when I went out and it was just turned into a whole ordeal. But now stand ready to we don’t have to worry about if you’re.

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Ready for the summer. It’s summer, ready for the summer, and let’s just.

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Get it over with once and then you’re pretty much good.

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It’s Mother’s Day coming up. Is this like a mother’s day episode? Like, is there a mother’s day request? What do you do for a mother’s day?

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Well, like, we talked about before, I think most mothers just want their kids to leave them alone for the day, not bug them. So I think that’s what.

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You’re going to oblige.

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I’m frank. I’m going to I’m going to kindly oblige on that request.

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All right. Fair enough. Good job. Well, I don’t know. Tag me in. Coach, do I need to look at some charts?

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We do. First one requested by Erica.

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Erica the nice. Is that what I heard?

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Erica the nice.

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This is like the hot ticket item here you were talking about hot. I mean, it’s, like, hotter than that sunburn on your face, man. I think it’s just. It’s just. It’s a.

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Hot. This market is for me.

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It is. It’s hard. I mean, where did we really start off? This is $1.42 weekend in March. 28. Ipso facto dollar, 95 weekend, a mother’s day, correct. Happy mother’s day. You get $0.50 a pound added on the cheese price.

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Yeah. Which prices we haven’t seen since 2023. You got to go back to where we at March of last year. March, April of 23. Yeah.

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I mean what’s interesting is that we got through all this. You already said it. It’s Friday morning. We saw him in cash yet. Right. This is pre cash so this could change. But this close is over. All this noise I take it I do this line here beforehand. This line is 193 and some change. Right. So if we close here would be to your point a close we haven’t seen since 2023.

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Correct.

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I mean this thing’s just off to the races. It’s got your favorite I mean look at this thing man. This thing’s huge.

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And that’s one of the scariest parts that we’ve been I think talking through with, with clients is the last two times we’ve been the dollar 98, dollar 95, we’ve gone from $1.95 to a buck 40. Right. Like real quick for sure.

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And I know there’s a lot of things fundamentally that are happening right now that maybe we’ve talked about avian flu, you know, and like it seems like we saw some export reports that were awesome, right, in terms of exports. So it’s good reason for to be here. Right? It’s just a question of can we sustain this price action?

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I drew this here because a close over here. So basically for us today monster higher new high close. Going back to 2023 I think that’s something to be really mindful of. I think you got to be careful of you know, the next stop being in this. 202203 and then I drew this one up here, a 215 type number.

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That’s what I.

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Have, I would say like again get a close here. Next stop. 203 get a close over through that. You could get into face repair up to this like 215 type number right I don’t know. We’ll see. I mean the futures started to kind of faded a little bit at least in like in July. Right. I mean, June we start pricing here.

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Not next week but the week after. Check out based on a lot of to learn more about that by the way. But futures are fading that right up. And you start to go past June.

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And I think, you know, I had a lot of questions yesterday about that. Cheese was higher futures are actually lower. So that’s true. But you know, when you get up above $20 in June, July, August and I think you’re just going to have natural sell side come in from numbers that we haven’t seen in a year and a half, two years.

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Yeah. Clustered areas. It’s going to start selling in futures from the sell side I mean it’s $2 cheese like get like let’s go.

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You and I talked about it last time we were on here. The amount of trades that we’ve seen in the upfront months is still huge. Yesterday we were over 1300. In June was.

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Huge. Like every day it’s over a thousand.

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And I think just seen that number of $20 is just bringing in natural sell side to this market. No matter what she’s had done.

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I feel like people are, you know, looking around to say, where are we going to run out of gas?

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Correct?

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Right. And it’s it’s so tough to say. Right? I mean, you could have made the argument right here. Right. And then bam, right in facing in a band. Here’s another one. But I guess like I would be looking for kind of like I guess candles that kind of start to look like this, where you struggle to continue any sort of material upside and then you actually start to get some lower closes.

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Or I guess another one is if you get let’s just try to find one here, some sort of candle that kind of looks like this one, but inverted. Right. So where it has an attempt to make a high, let’s say we go touch like 2 or 2, 2 or 3 and then satellite like 195.

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Correct.

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So in that candle ends up being like a determined shooting star. Right. Just an inverted hammer. Right. And so an attempt to move higher and runs into too much sell side and comes back down. I think that’s the type of candle you need to see before we talk about getting overly short. Because again, right here, right now it’s strong like bull.

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And it is until the market tells us to slow down and that we’re not going to go higher for the time being, it feels like we’re going to run try to test $2.

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Yeah red hot.

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It is red hot. And that’s what everybody wants to talk about this week. And I’m glad we started out with the specific chart.

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Erica the nice coming through with a red hot chart I think it’s just red hot.

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Shout out you.

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Should probably go get yourself some Red hots, man.

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I feel like it.

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And some sunscreen. Grab a little SPF 50 for you. All right. I think the next one you said came at request.

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It did. Our good friend, colleague. Jimbo. Jimbo, Jimbo wants to look at soybean meal. Let’s go.

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Jimbo. All right. Female. It’s a I really don’t know what to make of this. This is a real tough one. When I see these types of like one, two, three, four and you start to get like these smaller bodies like that, it’s usually like preceding a large move in the opposite direction, I should say. Yeah, in this case would be higher.

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Right. And so I guess I think I feel like we’re due for a candle that kind of looks like this one. Yeah. On May 2nd. And what I think will end up happening is it will engulf all four of these days, at least, like the bodies of them, and then close over like this high. And if that happens, it’s like, you know, boom town.

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We’re off the races again, right? I don’t think it’s a coincidence that you ran into some selling, you know, right. When you start to talk about retracing nearly two thirds of this move. Right. This 390 number.

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Yeah. Our high was 394. We started coming off right there.

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390. Right on the dot. Exactly. I don’t think that’s coincidence. But again, to me it’s like I think about it in terms of like the response from the opposite side in this big move from here to here. Three, four. This is 346 and half up to 390. And you know, in the same amount of time there’s been a big retracement, but I’d say relatively small.

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So I guess that would be my thought. I think you’re due for another candle. It looks like this here coming up, I think you’re going to see these like small bodies. And then all of a sudden, like, oh.

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I agree, it almost seems like they’re going to go back and test 390. If that happens, then you get another candle higher. Let’s say today, I mean we’re just started the trading day essentially. But you go today into Monday and we start kind of piddling our way higher. Do we break through 390. That is going to be the next testing point.

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Because if we don’t then we just turn into a blatant information.

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What’s your expression, by the way? Pitter patter or or patter.

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This market better get at her.

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Here you go. You could get in like the American dictionary, by the way. Yeah. Pitter patter. See, Cody, like.

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Trying to get out or.

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Pitter patter C time to get at or like.

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Next to it. Bullish move.

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Bullish move. Yeah. It’s next to that hammer. All right well I mean I guess I don’t really know what else to say about this other thing. We can take a look at it on a week like this has got like a nice rounding I guess for me I would look at this more and say we’re seeing kind of like a, I guess a step back before continuing to move.

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And I think the monthly says that really well too, actually. I mean, if you think about like that, bam, there.

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Because of higher lows.

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And you sure are. So this would suggest we’re going back to at least like 400 bucks somewhere in there, right in the this kind of like all this noise.

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If I’m not mistaken. And soybean meal. I think that’s kind of like just a psychological number. Right. Even number $400. Sure. I hear a lot of people talking about it.

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Oh, and then the longer term momentum of it, too, I think it’s pretty interesting. You had this abrupt break. It’s pretty close to to breaking through that. Yeah. Right. And so if it breaks through it will also, you know, cross into positive territory and do it on a pretty healthy breakout while you’re making a higher low. So the longer term chart here looks friendly though I think you got to be a little bit careful here.

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At the very least you know where you’re wrong if you’re buying and right, I mean you start to cross back into this territory. You’re wrong. But I think the risk is that we get back up in all this noise. So look out. There you go, Jim. That’s for you. Last one, certainly not least. Nothing got touched on this chart, by the way.

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So Cody’s test 123 still there. All caps spotting on.

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That if I’m not mistaken. Did we are in it again still Friday we got to go to spot. Have we broken through that downward channel.

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Sure looks like it looks like I’m okay. Well this is starting to look like it’s. And once I get a little perky here. So I mean to your point. Broke through this downward trend. Broke through that. Assuming we closer today here or higher. Right, I would expect that we’d probably get somewhere back in here. I mean, and you know, when you look at, like, I just pulled up nonfat futures for a hot second there, this is where futures are anyways.

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You know, this 120 ish, 119, you know, high teens, low 20s type area. The futures markets telling us this is where this market’s going. So in this case I feel like futures are going to be our guide here. Interesting too. We just looked at it for a meal similar though. We’re coming up on what could potentially be a nice healthy move from a momentum standpoint.

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We break through this. You’ll have been trending lower on momentum, which is a bearish indication right for a while. So to break through this you’ll go into positive territory. I think that’s you know that gives you a nice swing back into the one 20s. I think you got to be a little bit careful being short. We least that you know this is a spot basis right.

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Yet futures telling us this is where we’re going. Yeah I think the futures are trying to tell us something. Yeah I think spots get another warm up and then we’ll see. Do you think it’s going to go to the Cody test?

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I do I mean if we get to 120 what’s another $0.03 especially in spot.

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What’s another $0.03.

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Right. And then at that point it’s like okay do we just sit in this channel that we’ve been in for months on end? It feels like, or do we break out to the high side and maybe test 140?

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I don’t know, we’ll see. I mean, this thing’s bouncing around so much. It’s tired.

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I feel tired.

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All right. That’s all I got. Oh, you’ve got a big Mother’s Day coming up of of.

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I ask you, what are you doing for Mother’s Day? What do you got?

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I’m trying to. I’m like, that’s like I told you before, I think you’re on to something about, like, just want to have a little bit of. So, you know, one of my son’s favorite word is, so we’re going to switch that to dad for a day at least. And Clegg is.

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Supposed to be a nice day on Sunday, so it.

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Is supposed to be a nice day. So and I’ll go for, like, a walk or something like that. Yeah. Worlds are oyster.

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So world is your oyster. I like that, right. All right everybody, we appreciate you tuning in. Andy and I will be back next week. Would like to wish a very happy Mother’s Day to all the moms out there watching in the company of Ever Egg in our families. Personally, without you, we obviously would not even be here. So pretty important to our lives.

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With that, you have a great Mother’s Day. Get your feet up, tell your kids you don’t want to talk to them for a day. We’ll see you next week.

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