In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss lumber, Dec corn, Dec meal and dry whey.
Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.
Charts sourced from Ever.Ag Platform.
[bg_collapse color=”#004053″ icon=”arrow” expand_text=”Show Transcript” collapse_text=”Hide Transcript” ]
(Transcipt auto-generated)
00;00;00;21 – 00;00;10;01
Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this site. Map is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
00;00;10;03 – 00;00;22;25
Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is Andy. It is the 30th of July about 325 Central time 425 eastern. Andy, are you doing?
00;00;22;27 – 00;00;24;04
I’m great. How are you?
00;00;24;06 – 00;00;27;09
I’m doing. Woman doing well. Just enjoying the heat while it’s here.
00;00;27;11 – 00;00;30;12
You’re enjoying the heat while it’s here. What are you doing while you’re enjoying it?
00;00;30;13 – 00;00;38;18
Just, you know, when it’s winter time and snowing and blowing, you don’t want to go outside as much. I’m just trying to your side. Enjoy the fresh air. Enjoy the.
00;00;38;20 – 00;00;39;24
Heat.
00;00;39;26 – 00;00;40;29
As much as you can.
00;00;41;01 – 00;00;44;15
Are you like popsicle type person or like once?
00;00;44;17 – 00;00;48;04
It’s too muggy for that. Right now it’s just like you said outside. You just sweat.
00;00;48;06 – 00;00;49;25
Too muggy for a popsicle.
00;00;49;27 – 00;00;54;24
Let’s. Yeah, it’ll just it’ll just melt and drip. So there’s not even a point of trying if I have one.
00;00;54;26 – 00;01;02;08
If I do strike me as, like, a popsicle guy, I don’t know. Yeah, maybe. Yeah. There’s like those, like red, white and blue ones that are, you know what I mean?
00;01;02;11 – 00;01;08;29
Oh, yeah. Yeah, I know, I know exactly what you’re talking about. It’s just what is this humid water. So any way to go.
00;01;09;01 – 00;01;12;26
Water ice water it get hydrate. Get hydrated. Let’s go.
00;01;12;28 – 00;01;13;26
Get hydrated.
00;01;13;29 – 00;01;25;21
Get hydrated. Well, we have several requests that way. All right. So we’re starting with lumber. This came from senior big senior. This is how they wanted to be characterized. Senior like senior. All right. What do you want to do here boss.
00;01;25;27 – 00;01;27;28
Just going to ask you what do you think of our lumber here.
00;01;27;28 – 00;01;35;13
So this is the first thing that caught my eye, right? Yeah. This big downtrend. Right? I don’t know how you like. Like is it 632 is.
00;01;35;13 – 00;01;39;12
This I was literally going to ask you that. I don’t quite know how one pipe coated.
00;01;39;14 – 00;01;53;24
Okay. Well, we’re just going to make it up. If it’s not this way it’s 635, right. Or 637 and some change. So basically we had this big break from a percentage basis. This is a substantial move. And you know here we are. We broke out of it. And now we’re starting to kind of like claw our way out of it.
00;01;53;24 – 00;02;10;01
But it’s still this is a weekly a lumber did the same thing. Right. Just a little bit more pronounced. I’d say this looks good. I mean, like I could go back to the daily real fast. I mean, this doesn’t look bad. This looks like something that at least wants to kind of clods way out of it. And what it reminds me of is the weekly chart on fat.
00;02;10;03 – 00;02;24;21
I agree on this big break, and now it’s kind of just like it got itself out of that downtrend and is now kind of at least moving sideways. Lumber. The one thing that sticks out to me here is that it has a big downtrend broke out of it. Is it going to consolidate or keep going? We’ll see. It seems to be down trending lower.
00;02;24;22 – 00;02;36;21
Yeah. The only different thing that happened in my chart right now is either the moving averages on here. And we have not been able to break below the 20 day moving average since the middle of July. So but 18th of July.
00;02;36;22 – 00;02;40;09
We’ve been since this day we’ve been above the 20 day moving average. So what you’re saying right.
00;02;40;09 – 00;02;50;06
Right. And also the 50 day moving average, we’ve only broken out of that once. And then the next day we probably sell right below it. So we’re just kind of moving in this this little window of these moving averages right across.
00;02;50;06 – 00;03;15;24
I pulled up the nonfat chart because I think it was, you know, you could see a similar type trade in. Big moves tend to happen in threes where you have a significant in this case break. And then like the second phase of like this move is like some sort of consolidation after you’ve broken out of that trend. And I think maybe we’re started to do that, assuming that’s the case, then the next like phase three of that would be some large retracement of the initial move, which in this case would be retracing some of those break.
00;03;15;28 – 00;03;18;22
Let me ask you this. Do you think it’s forming head and shoulders right here?
00;03;18;25 – 00;03;24;04
I don’t only because like I said, if I think about like a head and shoulders or you mean like right here the short term.
00;03;24;04 – 00;03;25;18
Right. You know, short shorts, I mean.
00;03;25;24 – 00;03;45;16
It could be, I guess the only thing that like, I mean, the thing that would make me question that is if you just kind of, I guess, continue to trade sideways, even if you make this kind of shoulder right here, we’ve had this massive break and now you’ve broken out of that trend. So my gut would be is that we’re either going to trade sideways or retrace a significant portion of this hurry.
00;03;45;16 – 00;04;00;05
My guess is that we’re going to trade sideways for a while, build up a base, and then retrace some of this break. Yeah, I feel like the exact same thing is taking place in nonfat right now. We’re just kind of ahead of it. Right? You’ve already had the breakout of the downtrend. Now we’re consolidating. I think you’re going to start to see a retracement here.
00;04;00;05 – 00;04;17;05
We’ll look at nonfat and a little bit though. It’s tangential to that. A word tangential is no. Sure. There you go Carl Webster. We’re putting that in the dictionary. If it’s not already there throw it in there. So we’ll look at this in a second. The another chart. Thanks senior for the look you had. This one came at requests.
00;04;17;05 – 00;04;17;26
Who requested this.
00;04;17;26 – 00;04;21;00
My good friend Chris. Chris from Idaho.
00;04;21;02 – 00;04;27;12
Chris from Idaho. Go, vandals. Let’s go Vandals. All right. What do you think these four.
00;04;27;16 – 00;04;40;26
I think I’m bearish discord right now. Today where do we settle today. Our low is 404. And the low of this contract was 403 on the 12th of July. It’s not looking very promising to the upside right now.
00;04;40;27 – 00;04;42;16
And that’s not a low close.
00;04;42;16 – 00;04;44;16
No sorry just a low trade.
00;04;44;19 – 00;04;55;21
So let’s look at the close. So this is 400 for the quarter. Today’s close is 405. So another penny lower close. Basically that will be a new low close.
00;04;55;24 – 00;04;56;17
Exactly.
00;04;56;20 – 00;05;13;05
Yeah I mean you know we talked about like get the breakout and then what is the next part of it seems like something you want to be mindful of, especially since we’ve already had such a big break in corn. Right? I’m not I’m not saying you’re wrong or disagreeing with what you’re saying, but I think we also want to be mindful of a pretty key area of $4, especially after it’s been such a big break.
00;05;13;05 – 00;05;19;14
Well, I was gonna say, if you go to a monthly or weekly now we’re back into uncharted territory we haven’t seen since 2020.
00;05;19;14 – 00;05;39;10
Yeah, this at 350 area becomes a magnet for sure. The I would say kind of like the middle area of this, which is about 350. Right. Because you had a significant amount of consolidation around that price level. But yeah, I see what you’re saying. I see what you’re looking at. My thought for this specifically would be wait to get the close that confirms, you know, the breakout is if it is.
00;05;39;10 – 00;05;42;15
And to your point, it could be next at 351.
00;05;42;19 – 00;05;53;05
Here is an interesting question. So today’s the 30th. We have one more day in July from us. One of us on the monthly that look like a bearish hammer formation.
00;05;53;07 – 00;05;56;25
So that would be I believe a morningstar.
00;05;56;27 – 00;06;00;03
One of these or these upside down. Right.
00;06;00;11 – 00;06;08;00
So I believe that’s actually called a bearish hammer would come at the top side of a rally. Right. So you’d get like a red bar like that.
00;06;08;00 – 00;06;09;09
After a rally.
00;06;09;11 – 00;06;26;26
After a rally. But it wouldn’t be inverted. Yeah. Inverted hammer is basically like the you said is like the technical term right. Yeah I see what you’re saying. And to me that’s a sign of weakness. You’ve got the time to, to wait to see how the next bar plays out. Yeah. To your point, tomorrow’s the 31st, 31st. You know, I know that you ever do like the knuckle trick.
00;06;26;26 – 00;06;43;19
Yeah. Jan. Feb March April, may June July, August 2nd in the last month. So every time you touch a knuckle, it’s 31 days. So we know July’s a 31 day month. So there you go. There you go. So the closes through that tomorrow and then opens on. What would that be Thursday. Lower for the start the month. Correct.
00;06;43;19 – 00;06;53;12
Could be a pretty pretty nasty technical signal because the I guess the other side of that coin is that if you start to rally off of this $4 price point, I would imagine you get some short cover on you.
00;06;53;12 – 00;06;54;25
Yeah, I, I think so.
00;06;54;25 – 00;07;02;19
It’s been a tough go trying to break through this and it would seem to rally pretty quickly to 420 I imagine open interest went down during this time.
00;07;02;25 – 00;07;11;16
We’ll say somebody internally was saying maybe a week ago, two weeks ago, that the funds are the greatest net short position on corn.
00;07;11;16 – 00;07;12;14
Check out green feed for.
00;07;12;14 – 00;07;13;13
That Joe Green feed.
00;07;13;13 – 00;07;14;26
Chickens in grade feed about that one.
00;07;14;28 – 00;07;21;27
Give them a like that was one of their points also was if you see a rally you’re going to see the short covering that could have a bigger movement that we’ve seen the past couple trading sessions.
00;07;21;27 – 00;07;37;24
Correct. You don’t get the continued price action you’re looking for. And I’m going to push on that because I always push this when I try to say it. So if I if I say it correctly this time, I’m going to be super pumped. But one way to get a market to go up is to get it to stop going down, like I said that.
00;07;37;24 – 00;07;52;28
Right? So the idea is that like is if you know, you have this big break and then you start to consolidate, you know, those that want to take profit or like you need to get new selling that takes the market lower and you’re not getting that right. So wait for that new selling that’s looking to take the market down.
00;07;53;01 – 00;07;53;29
Then I think you get a board.
00;07;54;01 – 00;07;54;20
Agree.
00;07;54;23 – 00;08;04;09
Yeah. Interesting chart Chris from Idaho go handles. This is the second one. This meal chain mover along here. This could get dicey I mean it’s it’s somewhat similar to how we just looked at with lumber.
00;08;04;09 – 00;08;08;23
I was just going to say draw the line. We’re coming back into that downward trend.
00;08;08;23 – 00;08;10;02
Could be it.
00;08;10;04 – 00;08;11;22
Could be we’re getting closer.
00;08;11;24 – 00;08;31;10
Right. It could be the very least. It seems to be done trending lower. For now. You get a new selling to get like another big break to come in. I think you need to clear this low, which is what we have seven. Basically we have six and some change. So basically like a 3 or 6 half settle, then that’s a new low.
00;08;31;10 – 00;08;43;05
And you know I think you get another big way of selling that comes in. But if you can’t think you get some choppy trade that takes us, you know, different types of short covering situations. Yeah. So these grains and they’re just kind of at this pivotal point.
00;08;43;09 – 00;08;52;16
It really is I just keep looking at that 307 number. You sort of settle on below there. And it’s like I know very much looking at past that, say we’ve got a rally coming in front of us.
00;08;52;16 – 00;09;09;13
Yikes. Yeah. Yeah. So to me like from like I guess a trading perspective. Right. Like you’re looking at and saying like, what do you want to do with this stuff? I really do much here. It’s kind of no man’s land, but you get the confirmation of that close you just talked about. You could see another way of downside, but it should be mindful of you need that close and then a confirmation of the next candle.
00;09;09;19 – 00;09;11;10
Especially for this short and corn I’m.
00;09;11;10 – 00;09;27;21
Assuming it’s probably the same as corn. You’re going to need new sellers. Let’s say you sold it 380 and all of a sudden we drop to 310. We get down to 307, right? Would you see some of those shorts liquidating? You know, would you see more shorts getting in saying, okay, we’re at the bottom of the market. What’s to say that we need to push this thing that much?
00;09;27;28 – 00;09;30;25
We’ll see. I guess that’s kind of the question that I’ve had I agree.
00;09;30;25 – 00;09;43;25
Yeah. I mean, like if you were to get that type of trade, then I think you could start to see some potential like, you know, piling on, so to speak. But to me, it just seems like no man’s land right here. I think you need that confirmation. All right. These are good requests. These are definitely on people’s minds right now.
00;09;43;25 – 00;09;54;11
They’ve had a ton of price action. It’s just now I feel like I said, I feel like especially with Neil here, this feels like a lot of a dicey kind of no man’s land. So I’d wait to see some sort of confirmation. Last but certainly not least.
00;09;54;11 – 00;10;00;12
Certainly not least.
00;10;00;15 – 00;10;03;10
The belle of the ball, if you will, during spot out.
00;10;03;11 – 00;10;11;17
Of the ball. Dry way, right way on a spot basis. This thing is the belle of the ball. What do you want to do here? I think we talked about this one the other day. Right?
00;10;11;20 – 00;10;17;25
We did. Yeah, we definitely did. And I think you said the continuation, it would be a buying opportunity. And I think we’re in that buying opportunity.
00;10;17;25 – 00;10;23;03
So we didn’t touch anything from last time. We looked at this. And let’s talk about this guy right over here 76.
00;10;23;04 – 00;10;25;09
Right $0.77.
00;10;25;11 – 00;10;29;22
That is a nasty little gap right there. That’s unfinished business right there.
00;10;29;25 – 00;10;32;02
With a breakout today.
00;10;32;04 – 00;11;04;15
Correct. And this is a weekly. It’s only Tuesday. So you want to be a little bit mindful of that right. I would call this unsustainable price action right. I mean we went from $0.50 to 62.5 to see like when things go like straight up or down, that rate of change is very difficult to maintain. But like I guess for my head’s going as to say like I feel like we’re due for something like this, where you start to get some trade and it has very little price action, but it’s just kind of like incrementally stair steps itself up, you know, maybe like the next like couple weeks we move up $0.03, $0.04 off or something
00;11;04;15 – 00;11;22;19
like that, get some trade, you know, one week or like one and a half cents on average getting very little price action. Those tend to precede big moves. So I think we saw that here. I think we saw that again. You kind of see that over here a little bit too. But if we were to see that, that I think is a big warning sign of things, it’s going to rip again.
00;11;22;20 – 00;11;37;23
I’m not going to count it out. The ability to go and go fill this gap, I think it’s entirely on the table, I really do. I think it would be very unexpected. I try to always ask the question like, what would be a big surprise to the marketplace? Right now, talking about an 80% way or close to 80% way just while.
00;11;37;23 – 00;11;57;23
But yeah, this chart, I mean, just forget about the fundamentals for a second. This chart looks phenomenal. Read I guess that the one thing that would, I guess, caused me to say, well, now we’re done. Or like, you know, it’s failure is if you get a candle that kind of looks like this, this big red one, like next week, let’s say we close here for the week 62, but I’ll go anywhere for the rest of the week.
00;11;57;25 – 00;12;14;23
And then you get this kind of a candle for next week where we’re down about what is this little over $0.07. So you just completely engulf this candle that would be, you know, take the wind completely out of the sails and put the bears firmly in control. I think you need that kind of a candle to see some sort of a reversal.
00;12;14;28 – 00;12;16;27
Bearish turn of events.
00;12;17;00 – 00;12;21;08
Bearish and imminence is what you need a red candle.
00;12;21;10 – 00;12;28;28
I mean the way that way has been moving I’d say we check on this down the line, but it might be next week. Or we check on and it’s like hey, we’re $0.10 higher. We’re $0.05 higher today. Sure.
00;12;29;00 – 00;12;29;08
I mean.
00;12;29;08 – 00;12;32;17
This was the biggest move since April of 2021. Today.
00;12;32;17 – 00;12;53;02
I mean, this thing has been knocking out like price levels. Bam, bam, bam bam. You know, just knocking about like $0.45. Poof. See you later. Like, you know, $0.50 rolled through $0.60. We’ll see. Like I said, it’s long to close the week, but I mean, like it just continues to take some of these price tiers and just slap them right out of the way.
00;12;53;02 – 00;13;12;19
So yeah, it feels strong. And futures too. You know, futures. This is the way border real fast. But I mean you’ve got Sep 59.5 you know arc basically $0.60. You don’t see anything below. So all these are bid today over at $0.50 or better. So which some of these were all bid during the closing range day one like 109 and 30s.
00;13;12;19 – 00;13;15;16
And that’s quarter four of 25.
00;13;15;19 – 00;13;25;22
Correct. With no offers we should settle at $0.50. So that said, I think the futures are trying to tell us something. This chart looks great. You got to be mindful of this gap. Mind the gap.
00;13;25;24 – 00;13;28;19
We could be looking at this one again next Tuesday. The way it’s moving.
00;13;28;21 – 00;13;34;11
Who knows. We should be look like anything’s possible. Should be looking at this one. Next is. This thing’s on fire. All right.
00;13;34;13 – 00;13;50;09
Cool. All right. Well big shout out to Chris and Senior for asking and saying thanks, senior. Appreciate the, the call out looking at them. Hopefully we did them justice for you guys. If anyone else would like to see any, please email us. Call this Texas. Happy to look at them. The interesting thing about lumber is I don’t know anything about lumber.
00;13;50;10 – 00;14;01;24
Maybe you do, but not talking anything about fundamentals and just follow the chart. I think it’s really interesting because we can we can always piece together another story and some of these other ones, because it’s good to just look at the chart without any other influx of it.
00;14;01;26 – 00;14;03;10
Dip, fire pit.
00;14;03;13 – 00;14;04;10
yeah, I do.
00;14;04;12 – 00;14;05;21
What do you burn there?
00;14;05;24 – 00;14;07;10
The burn lumber.
00;14;07;13 – 00;14;08;08
And some lumber?
00;14;08;08 – 00;14;23;08
Yeah. Please let us know. We’d love to look at them next week, if you haven’t already. Please subscribe to the channel. Give us a thumbs up, leave us a comment, let us know how we’re doing. But with that, we will see you all next Tuesday on the same tech talk channel. Have a great week everybody!
[/bg_collapse]
The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-…
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod
Block Cheese: $1.6400, unchanged, 4 lots tradedBarrel Cheese: $1.6150, unchanged, … Read more