In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody spot cheese, butter and nonfat.
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00;00;00;21 – 00;00;21;23
Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in the site map is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities. Hello everyone and welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is Andy. We are the Tech Talk crew coming to you live on the 20th of August, about 145 central time.
00;00;21;25 – 00;00;38;04
What is it? An eternal like the sun or you are 245 245 Eastern Standard. How are you? I’m doing what? Man? How are you doing? All right, all right. So, last the summer here, we’re just. That’s. I was just about to say we are enjoying the last bit of summer, and I got to think that, like, you know, what is football?
00;00;38;04 – 00;00;54;17
So when does Michigan State football start up here for you? Well, college football starts this Saturday okay. NFL starts I think in two weeks okay. So we’re rolling it just it doesn’t feel like fall I think this weekend supposed to be 8788 here. So we got a little bit more summer to go before the cold weather gets here a little bit more.
00;00;54;17 – 00;01;11;25
So I’m going to go Michigan State you know in the national championship this year I mean I don’t think so. But there’s always a possibility there. So you’re saying so you’re telling me there’s a chance I’ll tell you what falls right around the corner. I’m excited about a free dip I ever had a free. No, but I have before.
00;01;11;25 – 00;01;28;13
Really good Frito pie or chili cheese and a bag of Fritos. We call them walking tacos. But walking tacos? Frito by walking tacos, whatever you want to do. And the sky’s the limit, by the way, with it. I mean, you could add all kinds of stuff in there. We throw in some cheese, some butter, maybe sprinkle of some nonfat on top.
00;01;28;13 – 00;01;46;01
All right. That’s nice bridge in there to like what we’re going to talk about today. That’s swell Blaine. We are going to talk about cheese, butter and nonfat. We’ve got a nice little episode of just spot all spot all day, all day. I would love to see you sprinkle cheese for sure. Butter I can get on board with.
00;01;46;01 – 00;02;02;10
Are you really going to be sprinkle in some nonfat dry milk? I like you sprinkle protein. Well, I guess would be way right. So have doesn’t really doesn’t work. Never mind. Well these are you could still you could still do it like you could have like your tote bag that you’re like of, of nonfat and you’re just like sprinkle it on there.
00;02;02;10 – 00;02;21;01
Let’s go. At these prices, I don’t know if I can afford to do it at these prices. So let’s talk about cheese first. The main ingredient of that Frito pie. And I think it’s main ingredient I like a lot of it is we’ll get that. This is rocket. So we talked about the bull flag. Yep. Took a little bit longer to play out than I think you and I had anticipated.
00;02;21;01 – 00;02;41;29
But yeah, it certainly played out. And the measurement I believe, if I’m not mistaken, it’s basically you take this where it broke out from, added on to where it broke out from where it’s, I would say more like here, there. But that takes you to about 240 cheese or less. So at the top of 2022 marks, let’s go take a little peek.
00;02;41;29 – 00;02;59;22
Ski back there. That price. Look at that right there. That’s basically hovering right up in there. Depending on where you want to have this thing where where you say it really broke out from. You can make the argument. It broke out from this high of this candle right here, which would take you directly to where this price point was.
00;02;59;22 – 00;03;14;16
If you took the measurement from where it broke out to, to this high, either way, it suggests that there’s still more strength in the spot. Market futures have been kind of reluctant here at this, I should say reluctant. I mean, we’ve been moving higher for sure, but it’s it doesn’t feel like we’ve just, you know, grinded or gone straight up.
00;03;14;16 – 00;03;35;09
We’ve had, you know, like today I think after cash we traded down to like 20 lower upfront 2025 lower. I mean it felt like it’s a week. But then you know the buying came back in and took the market back up. But it definitely feels like a stiff breeze can blow futures over right now. Well I mean yeah, just to your point or even after settlement today, we just kind of rocketed this thing right before we started here.
00;03;35;11 – 00;03;53;06
21 higher, 27 higher in October. New high right there. This thing just I don’t know there seems to be no end in sight. Well, what’s interesting to me about this is that we’re getting. So we talk about it a lot here. Right where you get the breakout here. But what does the next candle do in this case? It opens.
00;03;53;06 – 00;04;12;00
It doesn’t open higher necessarily. But you’re getting an open where you starting to see some trade. And it’s not it didn’t open lower. You didn’t see like a candle like this right. Where if you like you know, this looks like it’s breaking out and then bad. Right. And maybe that still happens, but you’re just not seeing that type of activity.
00;04;12;00 – 00;04;39;15
You’re seeing you’re seeing some volume change hands here. You’re seeing futures respond with strength over time. It’s been choppy obviously, but it’s still moving higher. And this this I mean this feels like it’s got a nice strong move here. It built a very big base right. And broke out from that price. What’s interesting about this too was that not only have we cleared this price here, I think it’s going to be super interesting whether or not we can get a settlement above that price this week.
00;04;39;17 – 00;04;58;13
We cleared it. Now, can we maintain that clearing of it, sort of speak of to to 18 to 15. Yeah. So it was this is hanging. So let’s go back to that real fast right here. So that’s 203. Right. So like we like any anytime we got up to this 2 or 3 the market just didn’t like it.
00;04;58;15 – 00;05;12;28
In this case it really didn’t like it. But you know here it just kind of like it just kept it’s felt like anytime we got close to two bucks, the market would break. Or at least, like, show signs of weakness. Yeah. And I think you could even throw in this, this number here too, like, this is a big area.
00;05;12;28 – 00;05;30;07
I think. So between two. Oh what is this, 203 and 213 we’ve cleared what appear to be some pretty big technical levels. Can we, can we get another close above those prices? Either way, I think you got to be really mindful of this being kind of the next area of potential resistance. I agree. And yeah, futures up front.
00;05;30;10 – 00;05;48;23
You know Sept 20 two half. It’s basically trading current cash. Talk to Joe Schmidt bases loaded. Learn more about that. Check them out. But yeah I mean teachers they’ve they’ve seen their fair share. If there’s kind of like really I guess choppy trade. But at the end well I think about like yesterday’s close to and we’re kind of putting around 510 higher for the most part.
00;05;48;23 – 00;06;07;27
And then throughout the afternoon after cash, we just kept incrementally moving itself higher and then closed into new contract highs for some months. Contracts. It just it feels supportive to say the least. I say that now that was the the block is also sitting at 210 even which we were at yesterday. It’s rarely move the block there.
00;06;07;27 – 00;06;25;20
So it’s been incrementally kind of working its way up to what we at to 26.5 right now. That’s been the one that’s kind of leading the charge so far. You get that block moving to to 12 to 15. Wouldn’t you think this really starts to perpetuate itself higher. So I think people are going to see that we’re gonna start coding in 2023.
00;06;25;25 – 00;06;47;01
Quite often. I was looking back, this is the first time that in a full week, we settled above $2 GS since going back to 2023. Yeah, I mean, like I said, we’re kind of in obviously uncharted territory, but we’re, we’re we’re in places that we haven’t been in in a while. A great. So I just like I said, I think it’s I think the thing that we ought to be most mindful of is we had the breakout last week.
00;06;47;01 – 00;07;03;03
It closed on the high last week. We seem to be at least maintaining that breakout. Can we move higher this week and sell even if it’s only like 1 or $0.02? I think it has to be much. I just think it has to prove that the breakout, you know, has been able to be like, you know, call it warranted or, and hold.
00;07;03;09 – 00;07;16;27
Can that breakout hold? Yeah, I think that’s gonna be very telling. But yeah. No, I mean, if you want to just go by the measurement and be if you believe this is a bull flag, you just take basically where broke up from late on top of where it broke out. Again, it’s actually basically right back to all this stuff.
00;07;17;00 – 00;07;38;03
Yeah. The little circle for you. Bam. 240 cheese, Hugh. 40 cheese. What is what is two for the cheese do for cost your dairy. Does quite a bit. I mean, you can’t argue with 240 cheese. You got a what do you think we call it 50. Use the bottom $0.51 just to be. It’s good that class three price is going to look really good.
00;07;38;03 – 00;07;58;00
If we get a 240 cheese that counter I way that prints. If it prints. Okay. Fair enough. And you feel like that I don’t want to get too far in the weeds, but do you feel like that’s going to allow you guys to buy more animals despite what’s going on? And I don’t see milk? I’ve talked to a lot of producers about this.
00;07;58;00 – 00;08;22;19
I don’t see there being a lot of necessarily buying, going order, adding animals, adding barns. I think that folks are going to number one, animals are expensive, right? We talked about it and internally in our chat we’ve had heifers that are now trading $4,000 for the past two weeks here in the Midwest specifically. I think what you’re going to see is you’re going to have some more of these areas that if they have extra animals, they’re going to sell them for the cash flow.
00;08;22;22 – 00;08;41;15
Or if you have a dairy that you are looking maybe in the past that you’re rid of, that you don’t necessarily want a dairy anymore, that maybe it’s time for retirement. This is going to be the time to do it. Prices are high. Milk price. Animals are expensive. The people that do want to expand and move are going to end up paying up for those.
00;08;41;15 – 00;08;59;01
And that was going to be the time to sell those animals, right? It’s a it’s an interesting time to say at least we’ve talked about it before. But to me, it’s I think that argument at least kind of holds to the idea that spot at at currently can be somewhat at least supportive. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. It’s a great chart.
00;08;59;01 – 00;09;18;13
Like I said, this feels like a both like it’s getting, you know, the price action that you’d like to see out of that type of formation, which would be in this case, you know, breaking out. Does it hold it does. I think it’s going to potentially go to 240. Let’s go. Also, on the other side of the coin, in terms of class four in this case, how about this butter?
00;09;18;15 – 00;09;39;15
I mean my gosh this thing what’s super interesting about this market is that it close this gap and traded sideways with it for some time. And then all of a sudden it cleared this price last week and is at the very least maintaining clearing that price. Yeah we’re a little bit lower but we’re not back down below 310.
00;09;39;17 – 00;09;53;29
Yeah. Let’s just kind of expand this so you guys can see a little bit more. Hang on. There we go. I think that makes it a little bit easier. So let’s get rid of this line for a second and go right here. So what I find to be most interesting about spot butter here is again you fill this gap.
00;09;54;01 – 00;10;12;27
And normally when you fill a gap it’s a sign of almost like the market is kind of done sort of speak like that unfinished business has been taken care of and a lot of times people look at gaps and say it’s it’s a we’re going to reverse from that price. What I find to be really interesting here is that we cleared this price level here, which is like 316, and we did it on a ton of volume.
00;10;13;04 – 00;10;27;20
How much volume traded last week? I mean, it was we had that one day where it was like 51 loads to do on loads. We had 103 for the total week last week. Okay. So let’s do that. Master of that. So 103, let’s say the average price I’m just going to make up average price was I don’t know three.
00;10;27;21 – 00;10;49;24
What do you want to do. 317 I think yeah 317 or 318 okay. So let’s use 317 times. Let’s say 42,000 pounds. I think I’m doing that math right. 317 okay. So if you use 42,000 pounds a load, that’s a span of like $13.7 million in one week at in. Yeah. In one week. Yeah. On a lot of butter.
00;10;49;27 – 00;11;08;26
Like at the basically the high of the year. Right. And so I think it’s critical for the butter market this week especially that you just you had this breakout in the new highs last week or late last week. Right. You did it on huge volume. And I had like a huge dollar spent to right okay. Here you are spending 13.5 million bucks.
00;11;08;26 – 00;11;26;09
That’s a lot of dough. And so then now you’ve got this market that’s like it’s it’s it didn’t just immediately reverse that on like you know unfilled offers taking the market down. You know buyers got what they needed paid up. You have a blow off top. And we want to think that down like a dime or something. Back close to three.
00;11;26;09 – 00;11;44;07
But you’re just not seeing that price action right. You’re starting to see more trade and the breakout in the very least even at 317 down a little bit here today, this week, it’s still above where it broke out from. Well John Spain hello. And I just got another GDP podcast. I think we’re going to get to it a second here on the other side of class four.
00;11;44;07 – 00;12;05;08
But utter and utter specifically on GDP, both very strong today. I mean good closes, good rallies from the last auction we had two weeks ago leaning into our prices, I think following along with where the rest of the world is, is trading. Yeah. Yeah, I think it feels like there’s something going on here in the class war space.
00;12;05;14 – 00;12;26;23
I can’t look at anything on this. What you have here for butter and say that there’s anything that just screams bearish. Now we’re only on Tuesday afternoon. I understand that, but there’s nothing so far that says okay, the run in butter is done, that we’ve had a good time. Right. This something that I totally agree. I think if we were going to reverse last week’s price action, I think we would have reversed more of it by now.
00;12;26;26 – 00;12;51;16
I agree, and I think you wouldn’t see much trade like we already I think how many loads how many loads did we trade today? We had ten loads here today, ten loads of butter trading today and we traded six on Monday. So 16, 16 loads. It’s not 100% plus but it’s still you’re getting some trade into new highs in the trades and butter today we’re all between 317 and then 319.
00;12;51;16 – 00;13;16;17
So you got A27 window there that we traded those two loads. Yeah this this to me feels like again you had the big week last week on a ton of volume closing to new highs for the year if I’m not mistaken. Yeah. Closing to new highs for the year and didn’t get an immediate follow through from the sell side of saying like well hey you know if you if you want more we’ve got it and then some and we’ll walk this price back down on you.
00;13;16;19 – 00;13;31;24
Right. Not the case. Right. So to me it’s still strong I think this week it’s just it’s just like the it’s just like what we saw in cheese last week. You had a big breakout. And are we going to get, you know basically follow through from the buyers this week. It seems like we are in both markets right now given the price action.
00;13;31;27 – 00;13;54;08
You already said it though. This one I think is a big seller. Yeah, it feels like it. We just broke above 125, broke out from 125. We’ve been there since eight 1st February. February of last year. Again, it’s keep going back to what a lot of 2023 numbers are kind of getting blown past right now where we sit.
00;13;54;08 – 00;14;16;12
I’m trying to do this here. Second time’s a charm. There we go. So again, I always think about markets like big market moves in like three phases. You have that like the move itself a period of consolidation and some form of retracement of that move. So I think we’ve we’ve experienced one and tip the market went from basically 190 to 1.
00;14;16;12 – 00;14;38;25
Like what is this low 110 and some change. Yeah. Right. I mean so we had this big move and then we had a significant period of consolidation, right? I mean, this market has basically sat still more or less since. Yeah. What call May of 2023, by the way. Right. So we kind of bumped up to 125. And now we’re going to get back down to 110.
00;14;38;25 – 00;14;57;25
And like you’ve just had this big this is consolidation for sure. But now we’re back as 128 and some change. Hey that’s above a price we haven’t seen since. I mean, you got to go back to the beginning of January of 2023, right. To go back to see a price that was higher than where we are now. I think this looks good.
00;14;57;25 – 00;15;23;08
I think you have a nice long term high or low relative to where, you know, this market started to really like, I guess like start to bottom for now. Right. This is low. And I think I had this this retracement piece up here, this Fibonacci I just I think we’re going to go do at least a 38% retracement, which would take us to call this 137 138 I think, I think I think this market’s got 140 written all over it.
00;15;23;10 – 00;15;40;22
I think wow, high or low what we’re starting to see in terms of start, you know strong closes on a week to week basis. Right. You had this close. And then now we’ll see how this week plays out. Right. But if we just settle here or higher again you’ve cleared a lot of price action. You’re above the above this double top aren’t you.
00;15;40;23 – 00;15;59;19
Again I’m trying to look at it’s poke holes into your theory here and I can’t honestly argue what you’re saying there. Yep. Anybody that was like you speak about the psychology of it. Like any selling that took place over the last, like, you know, I know it’s, you know, I’m sure it’s all bought and paid for and it’s hard to over this long of a time frame.
00;15;59;22 – 00;16;17;10
But like selling I always think about like any selling that took place all oops. All over here is more or less like gone like you’re on the water now aren’t you. So that’s just where my head’s at. I think the answer, it’s got a little bit of a run to it and I like I said, I think about it in phases of three.
00;16;17;12 – 00;16;33;25
I think this market had its big move. It’s experienced this experience, this level of consolidation. And I think the next phase of this is to retrace a good chunk of this big move. And I think the fundamentals are there. I don’t know if clustered area is going to make any more milk at 20, $22 or $24. Who knows?
00;16;33;28 – 00;16;50;08
But I don’t know anyone. Well, I’m just looking back at we’ve had the past week and a half traded nonfat here. Once we get going, we got to move that dollar 20 mark. We started, you know, pooping ourselves like $0.02 higher per day. Not just, you know, really grinding. Not to say that we were $0.12 higher by any means.
00;16;50;09 – 00;17;14;01
Once in one particular day, we had just gone from about $22 to 28. I mean, real quick here. Yeah, for sure. Real quick. It’s kind of reminiscent to and I know this isn’t the certainly isn’t apples to apples, but what this reminds me of is a long term chart of corn to break consolidated this more than retrace the move.
00;17;14;04 – 00;17;34;13
Right, right. But I think, you know, we’re we’re kind of at where like here, right where you had this big break. We’ve clearly built a bottom or built like at least support that have consolidated for a significant amount of time and are now starting to see trade above all this consolidation. And when it starts to go, it goes, it goes.
00;17;34;13 – 00;18;03;10
I think it starts to leave them somewhat like this is this is nonfat on a monthly basis. So this looks good. Yeah. All right. Well right there. Yeah. Right here. Yep. And so we’re we still have another ten days for this month. Yes. Yep. Correct. So if we’re here or Unch basically here higher. We will have cleared all this trade and you don’t see a higher.
00;18;03;12 – 00;18;18;24
Yeah. I mean just this is a little bit more illustrates a little bit better. But you have to go back to the tail end of 2022 to see us close higher on a monthly basis. This looks this looks like it wants to go back in the middle of all this stuff in the middle, as in McCoy’s at 140 earlier.
00;18;18;24 – 00;18;38;16
So okay. And look at that I don’t know. Can you call that a gapper right there. That’s us open. All right. So that opens one 32.25 this close one 33.5. There is a small little gap right there on a weekly or excuse me, on a monthly. I don’t want to hang my head on that, that kind of stuff.
00;18;38;16 – 00;18;59;01
Like that’s a, that’s kind of a, that’s kind of a, that’s a pretty small gap. But to me it’s I think the bigger piece is, is high or low. Yeah. And now you’ve cleared all this trade. Yeah. But can’t say that any of these three charts we’ve looked at today are leaning towards a bearish turn anytime soon. What else.
00;18;59;03 – 00;19;17;22
Got a lot of stuff coming up here. This this here too you know kind of alive surgery. So yes a lot can happen. But I think the charts at least technically feel strong or at least supportive at the very least. Right. Oh yeah. Absolutely. You know, they it’d be fun as if one of these episodes, it was kind of like you in the kitchen cooking like a Frito pie or something like that.
00;19;17;22 – 00;19;36;28
Like, let’s say, what’s that show like? Great British Baking Show, but unlike those British like burnt on TikTok where like, Cody makes a frittata or something like that and like a pie, I think, I think we got to give the audience what they want. I think you gotta give the people what they want you like with like one pot, one pot and like fork.
00;19;37;01 – 00;19;53;06
Yeah, yeah. That’s great football food right there. We could go to 240. You could get your tattoo that you keep talking about. We’ll get this will propel us to like, a million subscribers. Your frittata recipe. That’s gonna be awesome. Give me a good year. I’m excited right here. All right, all right, everybody. Well, that’s going to do it for another episode of Tech Talk.
00;19;53;06 – 00;20;06;25
We had nobody that called in and wanted to see any charts this week. I think everyone kind of got busy with, and the summer kids going back to school. Oh, we forgot about us for a week. But now the kids are back at school, you know, all the time in the world to watch TikTok. Shoot us a couple charts.
00;20;06;25 – 00;20;26;29
You want to look at who will be back next Tuesday. Same bat time, same bat channel. Double chance. Schools are starting out, man. It’s a busy like end of the summer. I have four birthday parties to go to over the weekend. This past weekend? Yeah, you got school starting here pretty soon too. Tomorrow. Tomorrow. Let’s go crazy. It seems like everyone just got done.
00;20;27;01 – 00;20;39;01
Get your last week’s. I got my kids. Got a sweet lunchbox nostalgia event. I’m bringing back the Trapper Keepers. Let’s go. All right, everybody, thanks for watching. We’ll see you next week. Have a great week and even better weekend vacation.
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