In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss natural gas, crude oil and feeder cattle.
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Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is 80. It is the 10th of September, just about 230 central time. 330 Eastern time. How are you doing?
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I’m well. How are you?
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I’m doing man. I’m doing. Markets are roaring.
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Deal in. Let’s go. Well, how did Michigan State, by the way?
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Good. It was a good weekend. Not so well for the Packers. Michigan State won. Michigan got crushed. Idaho. By the way, you talked about a team that you were so sure about. They just got Borg in the first week, and they had a pretty good run on Saturday like Idaho was back.
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Go, vandals. Let’s go. Go, Vandals. Go. What else? Have you ever been to Moscow? Not Russia, but Idaho.
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I never have.
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Maybe I should go. You know, it’s the rolling hills of the Palouse. Like over time, they change. Like their like their slope and stuff like that. Because, like the wind.
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I think you remember somebody was saying Saturday they saw Idaho being an FCS football school. Beating an FBS football school was the first time. And I forget how many years it was. It was quite like the spread on that game was amazing how many years it’s been since a lower ranked school that that lower ranked has beaten the higher one.
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It’s incredible.
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It’s great. You know, I think my last year there, the homecoming game we lost to I think University of Hawaii by like I think it was like a six possession game by halftime. Yeah. And they were like trying to get people to go back into the stadium. Like the fans know. I have to get my spot at the bar, so I’m going to leave now if we can put that in print or not.
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But that was basically so it’s great. You know, it’s took 20 years, but they’re figuring it out.
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That’s right.
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They’re figuring it out.
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That’s the University of Wyoming.
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Mike, my question for you is before we get in the charts, which by the way, we have three all three requests, which was great. Would you rather see the Packers win or Michigan State one if you couldn’t have?
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But for all man.
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You need to like contemplate this one over like several days or something like that. Maybe we’ll revisit next week.
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That’s that’s a hard one because I, I am a diehard about teams. I can’t say both. No.
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We’ll put a pin in it. We’ll put a little corporate pin in it for you. And let’s just think certainly on the heels. But let’s think about it. I’ll circle up on some of these charts. So this one came in a request from Whiskey Phil. Is that right? Whiskey. Yeah. Yeah. So all of our requests come internally first one whiskey.
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Phil Nack, ask his question. Are we seeing a W or not? My answer, I sure think so. You got all the classic signs of it, right? I mean, you’ve got let me just get this little one of your favorites, the ellipse. That’s a cool word, by the way. You just don’t get to use that word that often. Like in any given day.
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Like everybody says, circle. But do you ever say ellipse?
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I do not, I’m going to start.
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You should. So let’s draw another ellipse. Bam! All right. There we go. Yeah I mean it’s got the classic high or low right. And a big move. You know what’s interesting about this is this is spot. Not that we’re not looking at this one today, but I’m gonna pull it up anyways because it had a very similar move.
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You had, you know, big break double top high or low. And then it starts to go right. So let’s go back and take a quick look. Just keep that old chart in mind. This is a daily of that guess. It sure feels like we’re seeing the exact same thing play out. And it.
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It does. And today you have the whole candle and golf yesterday’s I mean literally the whole movement. Boom.
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High low right spot there from a cutie. It’s like you should just take the show over. Yeah. To your point, look at that. Totally. In golf the previous days. Not the range. The open in the close. So the range would be as if it was a high in the low were included. But that’s still to your point a very bullish signal.
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Oh it missed it okay. You’re right I was wrong. It missed it. I just.
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In there.
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Yeah okay.
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So either way I mean to your point in in golf the previous days settle in like that whole candle itself at the range of the total range. Yeah. I guess in short that’s a bullish signal. But it’s one of several. Right? I mean you had like I said, this high or low. The next step if this thing breaks through like kind of like like I said, similar to what we just looked at now on the weekly.
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Not that this thing breaks through it. And you got to think we get a nice healthy retracement. Back to what, like 250? It certainly seems to be like a magic number.
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I mean, we really started to accelerate on the higher low right there too. I guess that’s what I’m looking at. It really sticks out to me is just how fast we kind of rallied that thing.
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Yeah, yeah. Now this this is poised to and maybe you consolidate more you know like what we saw in nonfat. It felt like you know maybe it just it consolidates more than what you maybe expect. But that is the market build in a base. After breaking out from a long term trend that’s even more strong. That would I would characterize that as even stronger.
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So yeah, no, it’s a good spot. I appreciate the you know, the request was go fill this question. Is this a w. My answer would be yes. You know, I hope it’s not.
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Called good charts.
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I hope it’s not super cold this winter because if it is and that gas starts going up, the have a lot of blankets at home.
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As you say. Our next one, we’re about to roll into another request on crude. Same kind of thing. Right. Natural gas, crude, different charts. Right. Obviously way different looks here. But crude oil, this is not.
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Looking so hot. That’s all right, I don’t know. What do you think?
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I mean, the information we haven’t talked about crude in a long time. I don’t think. And same thing with natural gas, but that information just completely filled itself out. And we’ve just done nothing but going to contract lows here. He’s going to look at it on a monthly. I mean, even the monthly does not look fantastic.
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So there’s the M you’re talking about. And you got the confirmation here right. It broke through. Yep. That really I mean you’d what you’d be looking for not only breakthrough I would say to some more conservative breakthrough. Right. This is really the one you’re looking for in my opinion. Right. The breakthrough of that and you know, work makes them.
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So you have. Yeah. It’s just the inverse of what we just looked at with that gas. Right. We had the product. We have a lower high rate from here to here. That’s not good. Broke through. Now it’s continuing to move lower. You said you want weekly that right.
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Yeah I was just moving daily weekly monthly. And as you go I mean there’s no real huge bullish information on here that I can see.
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There’s the monthly. So it’s like so this is for September. This is September’s candle right here. It’s not looking so pretty. But I mean it still has some room to break. And still be in like a consolidation. But again this is even worse. I mean you had this attempt to break out big time failure right there with that right there boom.
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And completely failed to get back into even like even within this candle’s range and all this noise. Right? I mean, if you just look at like the closes, it didn’t it really didn’t come in and like challenge this once again, that’s a sign of weakness. And so I guess the next step is what is this low right here.
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That’s 63 and 64. If you continue to break. Yeah. Break through there. What’s crazy is that I don’t think crude has limits. So like milk has like a 75 cent price limit. Yeah. Crude does not have a I don’t believe crude has an intraday limit on it.
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You are correct. I’m looking right now there are no daily hard limits in crude.
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So this thing could get go from bad to worse in one day pretty quickly. But and then you know we always look at some of the secondary stuff too. This is the money flow index. So it’s basically a look at like volume weighted like to green candle has light volume and a red candle has high volume. The money the money flow index theoretically would be sloping down.
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So to see that start to turn lower confirms this price action. And it has room to go. I mean you really kind of see this thing trade within a range of like 20 early 20 is kind of the low end 20 to 80. It’s kind of this range. And over here. So this thing in my opinion it trades well technically it’s clearly broken out of this uptrend and it has room to break.
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So you could you’re getting that confirmation from the secondary stuff in this case the money flow index that you have continued further potential weakness I feel like you’re still like back at the question of Packers versus Michigan State.
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I mean, it’s still coming back into my mind. It’s a hard one to answer.
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You just sitting back there like.
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I just don’t know how I can answer that.
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Let me choose like great immovable object versus an unstoppable force. Like which one I don’t know. So all right, last one. This also came at request suspenders from Ryan from Ryan.
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Want to look at feeder cattle.
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What do you want to do? Your boss October feeders?
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I don’t think I would be a buyer. Feeder cattle here.
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Okay.
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Why not? I like how the candle didn’t really engulf all of Friday’s trade. The one we had yesterday and then today had a nice rally. But you still couldn’t sustain up to 240.
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You don’t think we’re getting something like this?
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I just looking at it, I really don’t. I mean, today would have been almost the perfect day to push up towards 214, which has recently turned into resistance. And I just for some reason it feels like we are not going to push that number any time soon. I think, the 230 is going to be happening first. So I think we’re going to go back into our lows and then maybe try to test it.
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I’m going to disagree with you. And to me, I think it’s if we can use our funny word again ellipse, we once again are getting a higher low. And to me it’s it’s more of an extent of like, can we go test 240? Because the tough part about this one is that you had a pretty significant break very quickly.
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This is a three day period going from 252 to basically 240 ish. 230, you know? 238, you know, so somewhere in there right over this one, two, three period. And really, you haven’t been able to get any sort of material. The Bulls really haven’t put up much of a fight, all things considered. So if so, we can get back into this 240 area and start to actually like close, like get a close above this candle right here.
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Yeah. Then it turns into like I think it turns into kind of like a really kind of like a whipsaw back to, to the mean. This market has become obviously super volatile, like given the price level that we’ve been trading at relative to previous years. Yep. So to me, this looks like more of a sign of strength. This this kind of reminds me of that candle right there.
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Something exact same pattern. Right. You know, you don’t have this hammer right here, but you have a clear, like attempt to break down. Given the yesterday’s low. So yesterday’s low, 229 575 tried to break. Couldn’t do it and then settled above the previous day’s open. That to me is a sign of, of real strength. So just talking about it like out loud like we tried to get below yesterday’s low, couldn’t do it intraday and then for the rest of the day proceeded to move into a point where we are now above the previous day’s open.
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That I think is a sign of strength. So I think you have to be a little bit careful. I think you have to be mindful of this thing, potentially wanting to go back to 240. Not that big of a move given how much this thing has given over. And recently, if you can’t get above this 242 243 and you get kind of like another one of these little dudes right here, this formation right here is literally the inverse of this one.
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So if I just like that formation right there and that one right there, they’re basically the inverse of each other. But they have to be mindful of what happened last time that happened. Just, you know, again the inverse of it. So this price level 240 I think is the price we want to be mindful of. And I think we go density.
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So that’s part about this. We can agree to disagree.
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You on the other hand is just like open up both hands.
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All I’m saying is I want to buy. Yeah I think we go test 231 more time before we try to recover to 240.
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How’s the beef business down, by the way? Good.
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I mean, okay, animals still short animals out there. People got to eat. Prices in grocery stores are very high right now.
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People got to eat beef.
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We got to eat. You got to feed the folks.
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So fair enough.
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All right, well, big shout out to Matt, Ryan and Phil for their charts. They want to look at today. Andy and I will be back next week. If anyone else would like to see any more charts by then, please choose an email, give us a phone call, let us know. Cheryl, have more football Talk Big Football weekend coming up.
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As always. Lots of charts, a lot of movement so far. So we’ll be back with charts. College football, NFL. This is the whole show rolled into one right now. So till next week everyone have a great rest of the week. Even better weekend. We’ll see you on Tuesday.
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