In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody CME cheese, spot nonfat and Sep feeder cattle.

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Hello everybody. Welcome back to Tech Talk. I’m Cody. He is Andy. We are actually recording this episode on Thursday, August 29th at 1030 Eastern Time, 930 central. Andy, how you doing?

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I’m well. How are you?

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I’m doing well, man.

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About today. This is strange. This is like a weird little thing we got going on here.

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Wondering during trading hours, things are moving, so the charts might get a little.

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Charts might get a little dicey. Not the spot charts, but, like, maybe some of this other stuff we’re looking at, it might get a little bit like it might start flying around.

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Oh, crazy.

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I’m I’m assuming you you’ve been keeping up on the US open for tennis and I’ve been watching it diligently every day.

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Yes.

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This week and next, by the way, right back.

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These forehands.

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Backhands, forehands always playing all the hands. Do you have one in that, by the way?

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A big Serena Williams since.

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Big Serena Williams since she retired few years ago. But whatever.

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That’s okay. Yes. I missed that memo.

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You missed you that you missed that memo.

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You know what’s coming up this weekend that I’m really excited for. Football is back, baby. You want to talk about something that I’m pumped for. You got the Big ten all kind of mixed and mingled. This year. I’m excited for that. To start, you got SEC games that are rock and roll and you had Florida State that lost last week in week zero of college football over in Ireland.

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I’m pumped man I’m excited.

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Well I’ll tell you what’s guess what’s going to get eaten a lot during that time.

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Cheese.

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Probably some cheese.

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Absolutely.

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You need a good Frito pie recipe. Let us know. We can get that to you too. But let’s take a look at the. So this one came at request right with Scofield.

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That’s right.

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So the you chatted with them, said he want to take a quick peek at the cheese chart here. This is spot cheese. Just black barrel on average. Super interesting. We got to what is this 203 and some change and made that gap. Or that’s where the gap basically started is where this thing, you know kind of topped out at.

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Right. That’s super interesting right. Since then you know it’s been obviously I mean this is the volatility year has been absurd right. Yeah. We had the big week here. You know basically retraced almost all of it opened on Monday. Up what like to 220 I think it was or I mean we just had like a massive open the block got into new highs I think right this move the barrel got back to like 225.

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And then yesterday they just we down answered it. I’m a hard time keeping track of that. Six and a half and a block and down 12.5 in the barrel like.

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Since since you and I did the show last on last Tuesday, we had two limit moves, at least in class, three on Thursday, and then again on Monday.

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And it wasn’t like it was limit down touches yesterday. Yeah. Yeah. That’s right October touched limit yesterday. Forgot about that. So it’s yeah a lot of movement a lot of stuff going on a lot of movement a lot of stuff going on. I, I guess the thing that sticks out to me here is that you made like this gap opened right above here and it’s still maintaining it.

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Right. And granted, we’ve had this obviously a significant amount of volatility, but this late like this three bar pattern continues to march itself up. So even if we closed here for the rest of the week we did nothing today and tomorrow you’d still be higher from the previous week. Right? And just so I guess the way I interpret it, that is it.

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It’s almost like an ascending triangle where you just kind of stair step yourself up against it like a horizontal line. Yeah. Which isn’t quite there. But it’s close. And as you just approached like this key area, which I think is, yeah, again, like start talking about like a 220 number that’s it’s kind of like a number that’s in the back of people’s mind is like, you know, resistance.

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It’s been like that down the barrel more or less when start talking over that price. So to me it’s like you stair stepping it up. That’s what I think really propels us into the price point we’ve been talking about for a while, which is basically just completing this flag. Right. So you have this move depending on where you want to have it breaking out from.

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But I you know, I think you can argue right there that takes you to 1440, which incidentally, that takes you back kind of in this area over here.

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Yeah. And I think that was our conversation route when we were talking about it. Is 240 cheese still doable. So viable. And I mean, to your point, just drawing it out here, it looks like it possibly is true.

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And, you know, we saw as soon as the market got down to two bucks, what was that on Friday like the Thursday, Friday that two sessions in a row. You know, we saw what happened on Monday where it was just like a phase River.

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We’ll see.

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You know, it just took it was clear the market did not want to sit still or, you know, get through two boxes, you know, met with a lot of buying. But again, like, think about yesterday. You start talking about 225 barrel type numbers. And it’s just, you know, sell with both hands. So that’s a number we have to clear.

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Right. And actually get some trade there too. That’s the other thing. We really haven’t seen a lot of volume change right. Seems like we’re above the price around. So but yeah this is certainly still in the cards I guess. What would you negate that your favorite I think if you go on fill this bad boy it can be kind of lights out for this move.

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Then you got another one that you have circled down there at a buck 70, which not say it’s impossible, but it’s still there.

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Yeah. And you have this little guy right here too. You could argue this little dude. Yep. So yeah, we talked about it before this one 85.5 number. You know that’s a that’s obviously going to be a key area. You get through that and then open lower the next week I think these gaps become magnets again. Know it seems like it’s still possible for the market to go to 240.

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Futures have been very reluctant. You know, to build in much of a premium beyond like the, you know, like I think like a 210 to 15 type number on a cheese equivalent that we’ll see the futures. It feels like. Well, if that’s going to be the case, futures will likely lag. You know that and maintain a bit of a discount up and don’t like you can’t mathematically or something.

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And learn more about the math check out basis a lot of judgment. Do we ever get shout outs?

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I don’t think so. I I’ve been.

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Shaking her head. No.

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We should probably go on here. Then maybe we get some love, maybe a little shallow.

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When you’re talking. I don’t know, just sees hyperfocus on, like, you know, the sheet and all that stuff. And he also has a face for radio. You didn’t hear me say that. All right, so that’s so, so is next up Frito pies. And potentially 242. You wanted to take a quick peek at another one that we’ve already looked at I believe last.

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Week we did not that.

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It’s an oldie but a goodie.

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What do we got last week I think the sleeper of the dairy market right now.

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Sleeper of the dairy market spot. Not bad. Yeah. Interestingly enough two you’re getting futures trade out like well forward and the like you know the 135. This is just the border of fast. But like you know in the 130 sixes and seen some activity in some of these packs to energy in the march, April to June. So and it’s all prices north of this cash prize.

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Yeah. So it’s interesting. Is that again rock out of the big downtrend. Had a higher low here relative to here or here relative to here to me. And then you had this double top that we got through. All right. So those are all signs of strength. And we just keep kind of stair step in an inch and ourselves up.

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So we we’ve had this retracement piece up here for a while. And again I think you know it’s not that far away anymore. Right. It’s another $0.07. Makes sense. And you’ve retraced a third of this move. I think it’s possible for us to retrace half this move and go to one 4140 plus type number.

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So you still had another two. I have in my notes from last week, we were talking 140 to 145. And it’s still, you know, on the chart that we talked about on last week and looks like it’s very doable.

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Yeah. And you know, we’ve seen markets where they consolidate for a while and you build a nice base. And that’s a nice way to kind of get a like at least retrace a substantial portion of a move. Yeah. Right over a longer period of time I think corn did that over, you know, several years where it consolidated and then just ripped.

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Right. So I think we’ve got the same coming up and coming in hot for nonfat. You know, I don’t think it’s a I don’t think we just go, you know, parabolic. Let’s go see a candle like this or something like two candles like this. Like it’s more like these kind of guys. And maybe you get like a week or two of this and just a nice, steady trend.

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But I do think the next stop is in, you know, in between these, this 38%, 50%.

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So all right.

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Last one also at request Tiffany tipped out what’s going on. Oh Tiffany might just pull this away real fast. This is feeder cattle. This is September. Thank you for the request input comment. Obviously I don’t really know what to make of this because you had this big period of consolidation. You know, it gaps and gaps. But it I mean, you know, it has this big break from 250 to 240 in a really short amount of time after consolidating for, gosh, I mean, since the beginning of Q2, this to me just feels like it’s entered a new area where it’s going to consolidate because you have, you know, like kind of the next area, right here,

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right. Is this in here? So to me, it’s like, if you’re gonna have another like down it has, it has to go and break through this area. So I feel like we’re due for another one of like these types of moves.

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Well I’ve got the 20 day moving average, the simple moving average on mine. And we the past four days have touched it and then promptly broken off from that number.

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Yeah.

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And that’s just trending kind of down. So I agree I mean it seems like we’re gonna go test 230 here in the set feeders.

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Yeah. It’s it’s certainly worth noting that you managed to break through this like 250 area right here after having this period of consolidation. Not only did you break through it pretty quickly, but we’re also maintaining that break. Right? It’s not like we just like broke through it and then V bottom back into this thing. That would be more of a sign of strength than anything.

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I think that’s the sign of kind of like potential for perpetual weakness is the fact that you broke through it to the downside and then maintained it. Right. And so the next step is I think this, you know, you get a 230 or lower close here to your point. And then I think you get like another kind of trade like this where we go from a two, you know, down ten box.

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Right. It’s just like it’s like that in the end really quickly. I think. But that that close below this right here needs to happen first. And the market clearly was happy to bounce right off of that.

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You know, looking at a weekly, as I said, check out a weekly and a monthly. And I don’t know, it’s got a little bit of support there at 240 on a weekly.

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Yeah. It’s not I mean, it’s the yeah, I agree, I think the longer term stuff is certainly not telling you that we have to roll over really hard just yet. It’s it’s kind of waiting. The market needs to wait for that confirmation. I think before you get overly aggressive move. And then I think, you know, ultimately, if that were to be the case, I think it has a number of periods of breaks than consolidation.

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But I think the next stop would be the see on this this area right here. And if you can get through that, then all of this is in jeopardy. But there’s plenty of room, right? I mean, this thing really took off after I got over 200. But you know, it hasn’t been straight shot. There’s been plenty of vault is kind of just kind of looks like cheese.

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Yeah.

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It’s just like.

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Yeah. No, I think your your point on the weekly is and it’s great. I mean like you gotta get through this. Here’s something that’s interesting by the way. Something else to be mindful of is this one of your favorites. What if what if we just consolidate here and actually start to climb ourselves back above 250.

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So you you’re making higher lows than higher highs is all that we’ve pretty much done.

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Yeah. It’s kind of at a pivotal moment here right? I mean, if you get this breakthrough I think you got to sell it with both hands. But until you do, it’s like kind of in jeopardy of almost like, you know, you’re selling a little early. And then what if you do get like, this hold is the high or low or just even like it starts to make a bit of a W?

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I mean, that’s down here. Just looking at the chart, even on a daily is going to be hard for people to just sell with both hands being down at contract lows.

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September 1st I hear I hear what you’re saying, but like the prices, I mean, if we go back and look at like a monthly, the price is kind of unprecedented too. I mean, like I think about along the lines of like, you know, if milk goes and trades like $25 and then goes to, you know, goes from 25 to 23 or something like that, yeah, it’s kind of more like, well, I can’t really sell it at 23.

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It’s like, well, we’ve experienced 14 too. So I hear you saying. So to me it’s like I think, I think that area that we talked about here is 235 232 it depends on which contract you’re looking at. Is is a really key area. It’s keeps coming up. So yeah break through that I think you guys sell with both hands.

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If you can’t and you just keep consolidating and maybe get multiple touches of that. And then you get to climb back above 250 I think now you’re starting to talk about, well I mean this stuff starts to come back into play. Maybe not for circuits that will be close by then or theoretically it should be. But if you start talking about like October, for example, you know, you get through, let’s say you break, can’t get through this low and come back.

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Now you’re talking about getting back into some of this stuff, right? Like it’s 1965 even to 70. But yeah, I think that area key get a break through that price. I the years get close to ask people try this out.

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Yeah. And what you said looking at a monthly we’re still above 2014 numbers as we sit right now. Even with the downward slide that we’ve recently had the past couple months. So it’s all perspective at that point.

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Yeah, yeah. I guess the only thing to think of is, is Michigan State going to win the national championship this year?

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Oh well, we’re a 12 team playoff. There’s always a chance we got a new coach new quarterback. We got a game coming up this weekend. Easy game I’d say. But never count out college football as we go.

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So you’re so you’re saying there’s a chance.

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There’s a chance.

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Chance. All right. Fair enough.

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Yeah.

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I’m not going to hold out. Hope for you by University of Idaho winning the national championship this year. But like you said, there’s a chance.

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There’s a chance. It’s always a chance. With everything that’s changed on the whole landscape, there is always a chance. I guess the best thing is it should be more pizzas, eating more walking tacos, which means more cheese out the door.

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Get stocked up.

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I’m excited. Awesome. Well, that’s going to do it for us on Tech Talk, everyone. We will be with you next Tuesday. Hopefully. Recap a little college football talk about some more charts. Thank you Tiffany and Whiskey or Phil for sending in some charts you’d like to see. If anyone else has any, please email us, give us a call and snow, we want to take a peek at them until next Tuesday.

00;13;49;08 – 00;13;53;26

Have a great long weekend watching football. Enjoy the weather. We’ll see you next time.

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