In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss Dec corn, CME cheese, cocoa and butter.
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00;00;00;21 – 00;00;21;02
Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in the site is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities. Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. It is September 24th, 2024. I am Cody, he is Andy. Together we make up the tech talk team. Tech team?
00;00;21;04 – 00;00;35;21
Well, good area duo. I like the tech talk duo. We’ll go with that will team etc.. Other thing man going it’s been good. How about you? Good rain today. Nice roots. You know what? I was just about to comment on that. The grass is finally going to look a little green around here because it’s just been like yellow.
00;00;35;21 – 00;00;53;25
It’s been what, 20 some days without rain? I think somebody said, we got it. Did you ever make the decision about who’s going to win the PAC or Michigan State now? So how do you make a decision like, I know this is a really tough one for you. I can’t make a decision, I just can’t. They’re they’re both as equally heartbreaking or as equally joyful as can be.
00;00;53;25 – 00;01;11;00
It’s like picking your favorite kid, right? Everyone’s got one. You just can’t say it out loud. Tell me that’s not true. Everyone has a favorite child. I only have one kid, so it’s easy for me to pick, but it’s. Yeah, if, you know, I hear there’s a favorite. Always in the pack somewhere. Got it. Dad of the year.
00;01;11;00 – 00;01;25;26
Right here. Cody. I just tell him how it is. I mean, do you have a favorite chart today? I do have a favorite chart. We actually have four coming at us that all four came at. Requests from the state kids four charts. All four came at request. And you have a favorite, I gotta tell. Are you going to tell us which one’s your favorite?
00;01;26;02 – 00;01;38;19
I’m going to tell you which one is my favorite, and it is going to be the butter chart. The butter me. Now do you want to start with your favorite? Should we save the best for last? You always saved the best for last. Save the best for last. So we’re going to spread the butter on here pretty soon.
00;01;38;19 – 00;02;06;14
But for now we’re starting with these corn. I think this came at requests from all Jimbo old Jimbo all Jimbo. Now is it all with an Ol or is it old or wealthy o ol or like old apostrophe or Jimbo, right? I agree, I like that one, right, right, right, I don’t know, what do you think here? I think this came a request in the other part of the request was look at the chart through the eyes of someone who maybe on the bearish side of things.
00;02;06;16 – 00;02;20;27
Right. Well, we try to be as objective as we can try and do. Right. You don’t want to have it. You don’t want to exhibit confirmation bias. And for those who don’t know what that means is you’re already bearish for even look at the chart. So you’re just going to look for reasons of bearish rather than try to be objective.
00;02;20;27 – 00;02;40;29
Sorry old Jimbo, sorry, but I think the biggest thing about this chart when I first look at it is, you guessed it, county. This gap. It’s holding on a weekly. So you have this gap that formed last week and this week it’s actually maintaining that gap, which is a sign of strength here in this case. Right. So we gap up.
00;02;40;29 – 00;03;02;17
Now you do have what I think you could consider very long term resistance still to be to be played out if you will. But what’s interesting about this is that this market doesn’t like four bucks. It gapped above. There. It bounced off of there. Here. When it started to go it seemed to go pretty quickly through that price and then volume back up and now gapped through it and is now holding that.
00;03;02;19 – 00;03;20;18
So that to me when I see four bucks like that, when I see all this price action around this price, it’s a sign that the market wants to move away from it. Right? So I guess I look at it and say, like this, these two candles and let’s zoom back in. This, this gap. What’s these two candles? Let’s say you get an open iron next week.
00;03;20;18 – 00;03;39;26
I think you have to go be really super duper careful about this point right here. And then the next one right around here, which yikes. I mean, depends how quickly you get there. Right? But you’re going to I think you’re gonna ultimately start to bump up against this bad boy right here. Right here. I would agree, I’m looking at it on a daily and I guess the daily.
00;03;39;26 – 00;03;55;29
What I’m looking at for this pawn is every time we get to try to test for 15, we promptly break that number and just cannot hold that for 15 number. Right. You get up there, you test it and then you come back down hard the next couple of days, kind of like you were saying back down to $4.
00;03;55;29 – 00;04;16;10
And we kind of waver in between this for 10 to $4 number. We did it again today, right? We had a high of 14.25. Could not maintain it. Could get lost. Yeah, yeah. We traded 211 to 12 and there. So I see what you’re saying. I lean a little bit more. I think we got to test $4 one more time, maybe two more times.
00;04;16;10 – 00;04;40;07
And once we get there, I think there’s a solid break through to the downside of these coin. Okay. So you and I are difference of opinions. Correct. And that’s what that’s how trading happens if a buyer and seller match up. Crazy how that works isn’t it. It’s I don’t I don’t like how did they end it. Right. I just don’t like that massive wick on that candle trying to get up to 420 and just saying no, sir.
00;04;40;10 – 00;05;04;01
Okay, well, I think it’s fair to say you and I at least agree that we’re going to see some more consolidation first. Yes, yes, I would agree with that. So it’s a question of whether or not it’s really how this market acts. Around $4 I think is is what you and I are also agreeing to. Right. Yeah. If to your point, if we get the bounce off of four bucks and keep going until you get through to 415, it’s that it’s that it’s being able to maintain up over $4.
00;05;04;01 – 00;05;21;09
Or if we really, you know, hammer it down getting through that price. So correct. Look at four bucks. We’ll see. Don’t know Jimbo. We’ll see what. We’ll see what it does here. But I don’t know this one. This one’s super interesting. At least one of us is going to be right. I was going to say a very good difference of opinion on this one.
00;05;21;14 – 00;05;36;11
Next up CME cheese is also came at request. This is just been this is the been hot. This is pretty good. Yeah. So this is what you and I have been talking about. Like you had the bull flag that played out and you basically this this the length of this line is from when it broke out. So we just literally lay this one on top.
00;05;36;11 – 00;05;53;11
It’s the same distance basically. Yep. Right. And that’s where we went to which is coincidentally the same spot was met. This market really fell out of bed from last time it was there. So the interesting thing is that you had the barrel go print, record high prices in the block and get back, you know, they’d had this massive spread between the block and barrel.
00;05;53;14 – 00;06;08;28
But to me, I think it’s also like, you know, you have this kind of doji formation almost right here. This guy. Right last week. So a doji is when you have a small this isn’t a true one because you’d look for like basically the same open close. You have no real body. This one has a super small body.
00;06;09;00 – 00;06;28;21
So it kind of represents indecision in the marketplace. And it’s like not really what you want to see if you’re expecting a trend to continue up or down. Right. So the fact that the market had some indecision here after it, you know, had this big run test, this number has indecision and then opens lower the next week. This week.
00;06;28;24 – 00;06;45;15
That’s a sign of weakness. So we have this gap here you got to be super careful of. This is between 198 to 18. It’s a massive gap. But this is the this is the guy you want to be super careful of. If we really start to fall out of there, that that turns into a magnet. You think we go sell it?
00;06;45;17 – 00;07;05;05
I personally do, and I think once we get down there and fill it, I think it’s a quick retracement back up to to 25 to 30, possibly where we are right now. Of course, I think that’s what we talked about last time, and I don’t know if we talked about I don’t know if we talked about filling the gap, but I definitely remember talking about some sort of like M what exactly.
00;07;05;05 – 00;07;30;10
But I mean, technically that well, I don’t something like that. I think it’s what we talked about. It is what it is. But I guess here’s my question. Do you think it’s an M or do you think we saw the gap down towards $2 and then from us to be pretty cheap GS throughout the rest of the world, depending on what GDP shows us, and everything else but a $2 cheese that is very cheap cheese from what we’ve seen for the past couple of months.
00;07;30;10 – 00;07;53;28
Right. Sure. I think the question is going to be how much of this do we retrace? 222 oh my God, so do you remember, I don’t know if you ever pay maybe patient. And I’m talking about the Glenn Lerner commercials to two, two 2222. No, the Chicago thing. Yeah, yeah. I think he I think he had to move out of Chicago or something like that.
00;07;53;28 – 00;08;25;09
I think he’s in, like, Las Vegas now. But when Lerner’s a lawyer for you call two, two, 222, 22 now, I don’t. So at any rate, at 222, Glenn Lerner. Yeah, at 222, though, that’s 50%. Right. And so if you want to like it, it kind of becomes like do or die time nerve. Because at that point it’s it’s if we crossed through 50%, then it’s, it’s a lot harder for it to be like, you know, potentially truncated into like way forward in the wave five.
00;08;25;10 – 00;08;40;27
Like, do you want to think about like the early wave is right now? You can make the argument that we’re in wave three, and a retracement here would be way for if that’s the case, then you’d get an exhaustion, you know, wave five that would take you up to, you know, somewhere in here. Right. So yes. Okay. That was going to be our next question.
00;08;40;27 – 00;09;00;22
Do you think we kind of have that fifth wave five wave Elliot theory, excuse me. And then come back down to $2? It’s possible I think I think that would be what would prompt us the most to get below two bucks is another push into, you know, trying to get through that 250 area, getting through there and really having like a nasty blow off top.
00;09;00;25 – 00;09;23;14
Which? 222 you’re only talking about losing $0.16, give or take. I mean, hey, $0.16 was a big move and we were at 150. It was. But no, I mean when barrels are still at 154 isn’t that big of a move, right. I hear I hear you saying on a percentage basis that changes, obviously. Right. So it to me, it’s, I think it’s just how how do we act?
00;09;23;14 – 00;09;46;21
I mean, I think we got a good test at 222 area. I think this mean just get rid of this real fast. I think this turns into this, I think gets weak. And I think it it persists, especially with the way futures are trading too. Right. Like December cheese for example. 208 offer. This is a 237. So the futures markets definitely telling us they’re we’re to go fill this gap right.
00;09;46;21 – 00;10;03;00
Or pretty close. So I think the real question is how does this market react once we’ve retraced 50% move? I think we can both agree that it’s coming. That retracement is coming. Right. I think I think the futures completely fall out of bed and have like a, you know, a big push lower. We’ll see it happen. You see this, right.
00;10;03;00 – 00;10;20;13
Or not. But it feels like there’s like a panic sell off that could happen as a result of that. Right. It seems like you have it today. I think we’re limited down for a hot second here in October, November and settled ourselves 45 lower. What would be a cold second to you? The cold second. Oh yeah. Like, yeah, it’s a good question.
00;10;20;20 – 00;10;36;00
I don’t know, like a hot minute. Like I hear here all the time. But what about like a cold? What’s wrong with cold? Don’t like takes too long. Cold. It takes a lot longer I don’t know, I never thought of that. All right, well, let’s add it to the list. Packers, MSU cold minute. What does that mean? Who knows?
00;10;36;02 – 00;10;49;29
I think you and I both agree we’re due for some retracement here. It’s just a question of whether or not we go fill this gap. If we fill this gap and it’s it could be lights out for a while, but or do we see, you know, wave four and a wave five. We shall see. This one will be a hot one for a while.
00;10;50;01 – 00;11;13;05
All right. So you wanted to say butter for last, correct. If we could. Well, we can, since this is our show. So this one came at request. Koko. Erica internal from Erica, who said she had to buy candy for Halloween and wanted to know what kind of saved money needed to be spent on candy. Well, What are you making right now?
00;11;13;07 – 00;11;31;06
Yeah, the first thing that came to mind was if you exclude what appears to be kind of like a, I want to say, a bad bar, but like this, this made it an attempt to get, you know, to break out and failed right here. So I’m going to exclude that because I want to stick to like being consistent.
00;11;31;06 – 00;11;50;08
I’m using the open for this, for this. And so this open and that open. I’m excluding that for now I get that. So what sticks out to me is, you know, you try to try out like somewhat of a horizontal line of like best fit. And you know, you could argue it’s here and or I think it’s somewhere in here, this range.
00;11;50;10 – 00;12;08;29
But to me it’s, it’s, it’s this. Or if you really want to be more conservative about it, you could have it right there. Regardless, it seems like it’s a descending triangle. So what that means is that you have, you know, consistently lower highs bumping up against the same more or less like support. Right. And so an ascending triangle would be the inverse of that, you know, horizontal.
00;12;09;00 – 00;12;29;13
And we keep bumping up against and making higher lows. What’s nice about this one is that once we break out, let’s say we break out of this and go into like, you know, somewhere in here, right? You get the confirmation, it turns into a bit of a fall, usually right. Or if you finally do break out of this downward trend, you rip higher.
00;12;29;16 – 00;12;45;21
So I don’t know if I don’t consider this to be like a bull flag because it’s not it’s a little bit too pronounced, you know. But like, to me, the nice part about this is that it has like like you could trade the breakout on that one. And I think you can have some a reasonable amount of success.
00;12;45;21 – 00;12;57;15
And so it’s hard to say with that chart like are we going to go lower or higher. It seems like there’s going to be a lot of volatility here. Once you have a breakout. It’s just a question of where do you breakout from? I think in this case you’d have to trade the breakout in the region. That means for buying candy.
00;12;57;15 – 00;13;16;07
I mean, like I’m assuming you only buy candy for your favorite kid and not like the other. However, many other kids get it right naturally as one does. Okay, so I guess if that favorite kid you know doesn’t like chocolate, then you’re fine. Exactly. But it’s a good sign that’s in the class I fold. There you go. So to me, it’s like I said, I think you have to be really mindful.
00;13;16;07 – 00;13;37;27
It seems like it’s winding up for a very long time. That’s not to say this hasn’t been super volatile already, but when you see this type of like bumping up against this part, it usually is in this case, more often than not, a breakout to the downside because the inverse is always true on the ascending triangle. That’s usually like a prelude to us, just like ripping higher.
00;13;37;29 – 00;13;56;05
Yeah. So yeah, that would be my take on it. I would look for a breakout here. I’d probably be a little bit more aggressive and draw this kind of in like, you know, the midpoint between like this bar, this bar, these two bars here. So this I feel like this a little bit more appropriate. So I would wait for this to break, you know, close through here, open lower.
00;13;56;05 – 00;14;10;19
And then I think you just close your eyes and sell it okay. We shall see though. Maybe. Okay. Maybe. Okay. If you can. Tickets cheaper for Halloween. Wait to buy your candy. Folks, are you going to hand out candy this year? By the way, I usually do okay. Usually do. So you got some skin in the game here?
00;14;10;21 – 00;14;29;02
Oh, yeah. We got a Halloween episode we’re going to do, by the way, so stay tuned. All right. Last but not least, this is what you want to do. This is what we’re all waiting for. Property utter. What do you want to do? Sell butter. Does not look bullish. Butter head quite the last couple if you include this week last week and the week prior.
00;14;29;05 – 00;14;51;27
This this does not no bueno. No no bueno whatsoever. You have a you and I were looking at going back into September of last year also right where we just kind of kind of petered ourselves out straight line. And then promptly broke. Yeah, I think I think these two can’t assuming let’s say assuming we’re here for the rest of the week, today’s only Tuesday, right.
00;14;51;27 – 00;15;08;04
But if assuming we’re here or lower for the rest of the week, this is a clear confirmation of this breakout, right? Yeah. The uptrend failed and then open lower this week by seven and a quarter cents two minutes or no. Excuse me. What was the open here. Open. It was 294. Sorry. So it opened three and a quarter cents lower.
00;15;08;06 – 00;15;28;28
But regardless I mean this is what we talk about right? You get the you get the breakout or the move, and then you get a confirmation on the next bar that looks, to your point, no good. This week I will say for all the bulls out there, this you know, drop that we’ve seen is created quite the gap right there to 95 ish.
00;15;29;01 – 00;15;50;16
So I think you start getting some confirmation to the lower side. You get down to 270 and maybe some more buying opportunities present itself for like higher from there. Sure. And we’ve seen how quickly I mean look at I mean I guess just think about this way like the market. I mean, we haven’t been below like a 250 in some time for anyway.
00;15;50;16 – 00;16;09;01
Like, I know we kind of I guess that’s not quite true. Call it like 235 240 ish. The market seemed to really like that price for a long time here. And then we took off, came back. So, you know, if we’re really going to fall out of that, I mean, get like, dare I say it, two bucks, you know, this is space we have to get through and get through in a meaningful way.
00;16;09;01 – 00;16;28;06
Meaning like get some volume trading, get through there and then open lower and really hammer it. But we’ll see for now. These two candles are a sign of weakness. Breakout open lower. Yikes. And then you got to go retrace a good portion of this move I had. So I had this year on here prior to this line right here to 70 ish, you know basically where it kind of broke out from.
00;16;28;06 – 00;16;49;12
Right. Because it had this period, it just kind of traded sideways for a while. Here, let me just blow that up real fast. Traded sideways here and then started to go. So I think this becomes somewhat of a magnet. This 270 price I agree. Two 7250 and then 235 right? I mean in that sequence, not saying we’re going to get down there by any means, but again, I think we have to go try it.
00;16;49;14 – 00;17;07;07
We have to go see what come what pops up to 70 ish. You test the waters, test the waters, all. We’ll test a rule of the stock. All right. Fair enough. Well, on that note, that’s all I got. We appreciate the insight on that. And we also appreciate the for folks that actually told us to our faces what they want to see.
00;17;07;07 – 00;17;25;01
That was the best part. Nobody called in. We were on a meeting and they said, this is what we want to see, show us. And we did. So those are going to receive exactly, exactly. If anybody outside of the company has any that they would like to see, please feel free to write in, send us an email phone call, however you want to get it to us.
00;17;25;03 – 00;17;38;09
We will look at the charts. It doesn’t even have to be dairy. We looked at cocoa today, which was something we haven’t looked at in a long time. Probably this time last year, I would imagine. Maybe you want to look at Home Depot. I don’t know, you never know. Whatever you guys want to see, we will try to find the ticker for it.
00;17;38;09 – 00;17;52;20
We’ll put it up there and we will take it down at these charts, but it’s going to get figured out until next week. That is going to do it for Andy. I we appreciate you watching tuning in. If you have not already, please subscribe to the channel. Give us a thumbs up. Hit that notification bell till next week.
00;17;52;25 – 00;17;55;20
Have a great week and even better weekend. See you next!
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