In today’s episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody dive deep into CME spot cheese, Sept feeder cattle, and the rollercoaster ride of the S&P 500. We discuss key technical indicators, support levels, and the impact of recent global events like tariffs and news-driven volatility. Join us as we break down the current state of the market. Whether you’re an experienced trader or just starting to get into the market, this discussion is packed with valuable insights and actionable takeaways.
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Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody is Andy. It is the 8th of April, about 245 eastern time, 145 Central time.
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And like do the math there carry the one.
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I had to look. I was going to mess it up and I try not to every time.
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Minus one times three. I’m doing well. How are you?
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I’m doing well, doing well. But before we get going, we need to give kudos to you because this past week you passed a pretty big milestone in your life. I’ll let you explain a little bit of it to the viewers, but you are now a a CMT, a Chartered Market technician. There are only 2500 in the world.
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Yes, except it’s a chartered market technician. It’s close.
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Chartered market technician.
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Chartered. So yeah. No, it’s, if you go to CMT association.org, it’s basically it’s like getting like a CFP type designation where it’s all about charts and risk management, specifically surrounding charts and different charting techniques, etc. and it’s just like a big kind of like a big global network of people that chart pretty like rigorous exams that you have to take.
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How long to.
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Take? About three years. It’s hard.
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You told Paige and I quite a bit about this throughout the years, and it’s it’s exciting to see you come out the other side of it and pass everything. But just I don’t know how many doctors and lawyers there are in the world, but 2500 on this whole globe. You are.
00;01;31;12 – 00;01;41;22
I think. I think you be like a great doctor. By the way, I feel like your bedside manner would just be like, phenomenal. Just like Doctor Cody. I well, I’d watch that show Doctor Cody, Medicine Man.
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But I just, I want to throw it out there because I think it’s important that the people know what you’ve been working on for so long.
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Tell them that.
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You got it. It’s very.
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Cool. Well thank you. Yeah. You want to learn more about your CMT association.org. Really neat program. And it’s a really neat network of people. So anyway this one didn’t come at request, but it’s been in the news and I’ve had several people ask me about this one, not just like in the company or like out to like people within like trading community.
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I’ve had like my neighbors have asked me like at school pick up. So this is this is a this is the S&P 500.
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The S&P for you and me.
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Yeah I looked at my retirement and I’m probably not going to for a little while. I’ll go ahead and close that one down. But yeah I mean this is just been it’s hard to I talk about this from like a technical analysis perspective because it’s just turned into this gigantic free fall, but also in the same breath.
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It’s so like we’re one tweet away basically from some sort of change. Yeah. But that said, if you do want to have any kind of like, I guess like talk about the like the technical piece of it, yesterday session was super interesting. I mean, I know that there was some back and forth about like there was it’s supposed to be a 90 day reprieve and then it didn’t end up happening.
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But we still settled higher on the day.
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As they have a huge rally going into the morning. And then it just right now we’re sitting what, 15 points on 15.
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Yeah. 15 to I mean depends on like the time bracket. You’re looking at it right. I mean it’s moving fast. Yeah. But like this right here I think this candle super energy like you had this big attempt to break to really get hit like just hammer this thing, right? I mean, this thing traded well, it’s a lot. 4832 to go and come back.
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This the high was 62.25. That’s low a month and a half later is 4832. That’s insane. Yep. So you had this massive rejection of this low I mean to go from 4832 and settle just 5100. Basically, that is a massive rally off the low you have. It’s oversold. That’s evident right here. That’s obviously a negative territory from a like a momentum standpoint.
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Right. But like the money flow is also it’s it’s lower but it’s running into a point where it’s it’s found a lot of support in the past. So it’s just it’s interesting that like it seems to be you know obviously like fear and greed if you’re like read about Warren Buffett fear and greed. Right. Like the fear part I think is really taking over.
00;04;03;13 – 00;04;21;26
But what I and I think just again, from a technical perspective, this candle right here, I think it’s if I was short or looking for a spot to own it, if we can hold this 5000 mark, basically, I think you to take a shot at owning it, at least if, you know, like like you said, it’s so hard because there’s so much like fundamental news that’s just fine.
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Added like 104% tariff. China today I think I’m not.
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Oh yeah, two hours ago.
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Two hours ago. So via Twitter.
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When I think what’s interesting, as you mentioned, I was getting gas yesterday, yesterday morning and somebody didn’t know who this gentleman was. He was talking to the cashier about his retirement account and how bad it was looking over the past couple of weeks. And he said, what I’m going to do is I’m going to throw an extra $30,000 in there to try to buy the low.
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And I was just standing there. This is a chart that affects every single person’s day to day life. And now people are watching this like a hawk every day.
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Correct? Every day 100%. And it certainly could pertains to milk, too. You know, we talk about like the consumer is the consumer are going to be super thrilled about going to the restaurant, for example, if they, you know, they just watch their 400 and K get terminated. Just slap. I don’t know what the kids say nowadays, but it’s not doing great.
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So at any rate, like I said, we want to bring this one up. I feel like everybody in the brother has asked everybody their brother about this one. And to me, what I think it’s super interesting is this is yesterday’s close. We have to be able to hold 5000. I mean, today you already said it were well off the highs.
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And inside yesterday’s body of the candle, the green part. Right. That is a sign of prospective weakness. If you look at the body of the candle, it basically stopped at 5000. Right. So if you can kind of get this rounding pattern, that could turn into a really wicked rally. And what if we had a big V bottom margin?
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That going to be my next question. Do you actually.
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A V bottom would die basically promptly back to 5600.
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Yeah. Which in probably same amount of time that we fell apart.
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Yeah for sure. I mean and then personally think about it, I mean we were at 5601 two, three, four days ago. So the market clearly is able to move that quickly. And there’s a lot happening right now that could certainly prompt that. So I don’t know. This is it. Like I said this 5000 number pretty clear rejection when the market tried to take a stab beneath it.
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And you’ve got some of these, you know, secondary stuff that started to tell you we’re getting a little bit oversold. The money flow piece I think is really interesting. It’s failing to put in a new low. You know, obviously momentum is it’s in charge for the bears. But I think if the momentum if you start to get to the bottom, I think you get a sharp return back to here.
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And then if you got back to being out of oversold, that’s obviously a pretty big signal that you’d want to be at least exiting shorts. They’re going to be really careful. I don’t know if I want to catch the falling knife just yet, but I think if you start to round up that 5000 number and failed to get through it, this could turn into a V bottom.
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Like you said, we’re we are one tweet away. You know, one one. Just one even a fake one. We got yesterday.
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You should start a Twitter account. Doctor Cody. Medicine man. I should take your medicine. You’re filled.
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By the S&P.
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By the S&P. Your take your medicine. All right. Back to our world for a little bit. Back to see me not cheese and not the silver spoon or the S&P is in an art like world, right? I mean we already talked about that consumer. And you know, cheddar and all that stuff. But this is, you know, getting closer to the sun sort of speaking out of it.
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I think I just coined a new like corporate term, like getting closer to the sun or something like, well, war.
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A CMT, and you’re just like, oh, work on and.
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I’m work on a little.
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About that in the work on.
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It, so I do. Before we jumped on, I drew this guy, right. I added this line right here. Okay. The screen on so this is the black barrel average. Pretty soon we’ll only be looking at the block, by the way, coming up a couple of months. That’s coming up. So meantime we’ll look at the spot average. We’ve got this big gap right here and ends at one 77.5.
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I’m gonna see if I can get you a circle. Here you go. Let me.
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Ask here. Let me ask you here. I think I asked you two weeks ago back to $1.95 reform and IT reform in that last leg.
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I’m going to say no okay. I think we go fill this gap. And I think we stopped short. I think it’s going to be more like we’d bounce off of that.
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We’re not too far away from filling that dollar 77 gap.
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Right. I think you’re going to get like here’s my theory. I think you’re going to go trade a price like bounce off here. There’s a lot going on obviously fundamentally and there’s a lot of uncertainty around the market. And I think that’s going to prompt buyers to get a little more aggressive. The prices they haven’t seen in a while.
00;08;40;15 – 00;09;00;20
We’re clearly showed that getting trying to get below $1.60 was a failure. That’s a sign of strength right here. I mean, you said it. It’s a it’s a w it’s one that the market can go trade basically back to $1.90 to your point. But we have this long term at long term. But we had a long like I’d say a longer term downtrend forming still two right here.
00;09;00;23 – 00;09;20;00
So where I when I looked at this chart the first thing I looked at was fill in this gap, which I think we’re going to go do. And then the second thing I looked at was this downtrend. We have to go, we have to break through this. And that would imply but but getting through low and 80s I think we struggle at that point.
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Okay. I think the market’s ready to that longer term though I would not be surprised if they did one of these numbers go to here kind of maybe find somewhere in here where you bounce off, fail to put in like a new low. And then it’s the second trip that we break through that.
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Okay.
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That’s where my head goes longer term. When I think about that chart, this is my opinion. We’ll see. But that that let long term downtrend to me I think it’s going to turn into a bit of a magnet. I don’t feel like the market’s ready to break through yet. So we’re just.
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Going to kind of sit and shop City for a little bit a little bit of time here, make make a higher low and then maybe get ourselves back above one.
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Any chop city job city. Any closing thoughts before we go to our last one?
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I mean, I kind of agree. I was thinking that we might be able to push through and maybe test 195 just to complete the W, but I see what you’re saying. Obviously we got to get where we have a 172 ish right now, so we’re not too far away from the gap. And what do you have a draw now?
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We got to wait until we get into the summer months to see if we’re really going to have a push, a stronger push higher here.
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That’s what I’m thinking. We’ll see.
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It’s fair.
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All right. Last but not least, a look at that thing. I think that one.
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Of our favorite.
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One of our favorites is a.
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Current favorite,
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Current favorite sip feeders.
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Shout up Zach.
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I didn’t touch anything by the word. I didn’t touch anything. I didn’t touch this thing right here. I didn’t touch this guy, and I didn’t touch this guy with that. I think when we looked at the I can’t remember when we were looking at was last time I looked at this, we were just week, two weeks ago.
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We were here. So two weeks ago.
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So right there, it’s kind of like right around here wasn’t it? Yep.
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Yep.
00;10;51;08 – 00;11;06;25
Okay. So we broke through this short term uptrend market. Failed to put in a new high. Promptly broke pretty hard. Yes. And now we’re bumping up against this longer term uptrend. This it’s like do or die time things.
00;11;06;27 – 00;11;07;20
I agree.
00;11;07;23 – 00;11;29;00
I mean look at the way it acted right here. We know one right to our line. But this is just yesterday’s close and went right to our line. And like here it is again bumping up against this long term to uptrend. Yeah. If this thing breaks. Now what’s interesting is that you’ve got a lot of secondary indicators that are telling you you should be looking for a break here, but the momentum is finally negative.
00;11;29;03 – 00;11;49;23
That seems to be like holding negative two. Got overbought, came back down, still has room to go and the money flow is pretty clearly trending lower level. These are all our signs our weakness. And now you’ve got it. You’ve actually have a close. Let’s just really dial in and hang on. So that’s yesterday. So technically yesterday we did not close through this.
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Damn didn’t close through it. But today we did.
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Today we did.
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Today we did.
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So now becomes a big question. If you are short do you look at exiting those positions. Round 265 where we had a lot of support, where we first are drawing that line.
00;12;05;12 – 00;12;26;22
So great question. I think the first thing is do you open lower tomorrow if you can’t get an open lower tomorrow? Now that we’ve closed through this like upward trend, I’d probably be looking at liquidating at that point or at least be doing something. Buying calls, selling side, doing something to help mitigate some of that risk. Because like I said, it’s kind of do or die time for this contract because if you can’t get it, you can’t get a close through this.
00;12;26;25 – 00;12;44;10
If you can’t get a subsequent open lower. Now that we’ve closed through this and you just pop right back up like I think this, this area becomes just one big magnet right here. Again, you got to be really careful about this. Ripping right back is technically it’s still trending higher.
00;12;44;12 – 00;12;58;22
I think it was interesting. Somebody in our, our, company, it said the other day it’s hard to be bullish on cattle when the S&P is falling as hard as it was, which is a very good point. They kind of mimic each other on what’s happening, but it’ll be interesting to see if we get a little bit of a, rally on that side.
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What if this V bottoms.
00;13;01;11 – 00;13;05;09
Exactly. That sounds. Bring it back to is it that v bottoms. Here you go.
00;13;05;11 – 00;13;32;18
Here you go. Yikes. So yeah, I think tomorrow’s open for up feeders is going to be a really big deal. Like he finally closed through this long term uptrend. And here we are like you get it. Like let’s say or is this where is this the body of this answer open high. Well so it opens at 277 even on this day we’re close just yesterday at 277, even right this close to 277 and some change seems like 277 is a big number.
00;13;32;20 – 00;13;53;09
Let’s say you open at 276 point. Whatever. I think that would be really bearish for this contract. And now like your next I would imagine point of support would be here where it bounced and really started accelerating this short term uptrend to 62 call called to 68. You get to 268 and 262 is going to be the next number.
00;13;53;11 – 00;13;55;29
It’s funny because the bid right now is 276.
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And the 276 is really, you know, since the after hour or so.
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Right. But I just found that the number that you had mentioned is exactly where the first bid is.
00;14;04;00 – 00;14;21;05
Yeah. It’s this is a like like I said, I feel like for step feeders and it’s been I mean my gosh, like let’s go look at this real fast. So monthly I mean this thing has just been all time record highs. Not just like for the not just for the month and the year up to like period, the whole contract, the whole shebang.
00;14;21;08 – 00;14;28;01
So to retrace this thing to 250, which is still a monster move, you’re still trending higher.
00;14;28;04 – 00;14;29;00
Right.
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In this piece. So yeah, I think you got to be super careful of an open lower in theaters tomorrow if you can. If, if that happens tomorrow, I think it could be a quick trip to the 1868 number and then we’ll see.
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Turn off.
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We’ll see.
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As usual, man, we appreciate your expertise now that we can call it that, except for CMT.
00;14;46;07 – 00;14;58;23
Okay. You could call it that before. What’s that all about? Like, well, I call you a doctor. You’re like, show me you’re going to be working towards it. I don’t want to. Let’s go. Jinx you or anything. Where’s your where’s your M.D.? I if I got a cold, I’m not coming to you.
00;14;58;29 – 00;15;05;12
This is where people still come to. This is where people are going to get their information. Because we we’re only 2500. And I’m talking to one of them.
00;15;05;14 – 00;15;13;23
One man. There you go. How many people in the world should we find out? How many people, how many people are in the whole world? 8.062 billion people worldwide.
00;15;14;00 – 00;15;15;23
It’s a lot of people. And you’re one of 25.
00;15;15;27 – 00;15;20;01
That’s it. That’s. It’s so many people. 8 billion people. Think about that billion I don’t know. We’ll see.
00;15;20;02 – 00;15;21;12
You’re the one charting it all.
00;15;21;18 – 00;15;26;08
Imagine I every every person gave you a dollar. You’d be a billionaire. I but then.
00;15;26;11 – 00;15;42;21
All right everybody. Well we appreciate you tuning in. Thank you for watching. Please subscribe. If you have not, give us a thumbs up. Tell your friends and family. Tell your coworkers. Tell your doctors. Give us a watch. Also, have them follow along. Andy and I will be back with you next week looking at more charts. We did not have anyone call in or email about any charts.
00;15;42;21 – 00;15;56;06
If anyone would like to see some, please let us know. She was an email. Give us a phone call. Send the carrier pigeon. We’ll take any kind of communication we can get. We’ll look at them. So until next week, have a great rest of this week and even better weekend. We’ll see you next Tuesday.
00;15;56;13 – 00;16;03;15
Maybe we can get like pages cat to start like accepting a request to like she just somehow just has like a little carrier or something like that.
00;16;03;18 – 00;16;05;28
What’s fair? Hey little mailbox on her back? Mew.
00;16;06;03 – 00;16;06;21
That’d be cool.
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